Remaining schedule

[Captain Hindsight]

5 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Why are people so scared of Pittsburgh?

They are like a paper squirrel 

[ganesh]

1 hour ago, BearNorth said:

I follow a guy named Ken Massey who crunches all the results [from many sports]. 

 

He has us favored in all the rest of our games, He sees the toughest [lowest probability of winning] as at Houston 57% and home vs. Philly 59%. He has @NE as 61%, & @Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay both at 64%.

 

The Tampa game is shaping up as HUGE for a non-conference game as the Bucs are in a food fight with Rams, Seahawks, and Eagles for the bye in the NFC.

 

 

The Tampa game is a home game for us.  We should leverage our home field advantage to negate any advantage with that team.

[boyst]

2 hours ago, BearNorth said:

I follow a guy named Ken Massey who crunches all the results [from many sports]. 

 

He has us favored in all the rest of our games, He sees the toughest [lowest probability of winning] as at Houston 57% and home vs. Philly 59%. He has @NE as 61%, & @Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay both at 64%.

 

The Tampa game is shaping up as HUGE for a non-conference game as the Bucs are in a food fight with Rams, Seahawks, and Eagles for the bye in the NFC.

 

 

tampa is huge as a common opponent advantage. philly we matchup very well on because their skills are matched to our skills.

 

houston matches up well against us, as does new england.

 

as far as pittsburgh we just got too much juice for them.

[Billsfanatic8989]

Pittsburgh, Houston, TB, Eagles, and NE. No loss to any of those teams would be shocking. Nor an upset. I think they go 3-2 in that stretch. 

 

The most important thing is getting a top two seed. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Billsfanatic8989

[PoundingDog]

Just a general read of AFC, I feel a couple of teams may end up with 13-4 records to win a division. Teams like Denver, NE do not have difficult schedule and it may not come down to head to head records because the traditional power house (Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Texans) who plays each other does not apply. A team finishes 14-3 will definitely be the top seed. 

 

The Bills biggest challenge is 1) Texans 2) Eagles and 3) Bucs/Steelers. Injury may change things. I think teams with strong defense can give the Bills problems. Last year, Josh played his worst game in Houston. CJ Stroud gave us chances after chances near the end of the game and we could not do it. And that is Josh's MVP season! Yes the Texans are not where they were offensively last year, but I really have no confidence our defense will win a game for us against a capable QB (i.e., not the likes of Fields, Daulton).

[Process]

6 minutes ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

Pittsburgh, Houston, TB, Eagles, and NE. No loss to any of those teams would be shocking. Nor an upset. I think they go 3-2 in that stretch. 

 

The most important thing is getting a top two seed. 

We will be favored in all of those games, and are heavily favored vs Tampa (-6.5). Would losing be shocking, no. But they would be upsets. 

[Billsfanatic8989]

Just now, Process said:

We will be favored in all of those games, and are heavily favored vs Tampa (-6.5). Would losing be shocking, no. But they would be upsets. 

That seems like a rather big spread. Do home teams still get three points automatically? If so, it would be 3.5 point favorites. 

[mannc]

26 minutes ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

That seems like a rather big spread. Do home teams still get three points automatically? If so, it would be 3.5 point favorites. 

It depends.  Some teams (like Miami) have almost no home field advantage.  Buffalo is not one of those teams, and since the Tampa game is not likely to be moved to a neutral site, the Bills are greater than a 3.5 point favorite.  There is a long history of warm-weather teams struggling in late season road games in cold weather cities.

[Billsfanatic8989]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

It depends.  Some teams (like Miami) have almost no home field advantage.  Buffalo is not one of those teams, and since the Tampa game is not likely to be moved to a neutral site, the Bills are greater than a 3.5 point favorite.  There is a long history of warm-weather teams struggling in late season road games in cold weather cities.

Didn't think of this factor. Good point. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

2 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

They are like a paper squirrel 

True, but say 'Pittsburgh Steelers', and people automatically think:

That's enough to scare anybody.

[Warriorspikes51]

9 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

 

It's funny how different things look in a few weeks. No offense but the OP seems laughably pessimistic now... 

 

To do it from the vantage of Nov 7:

 

@Miami - W
 

Tampa - Tampa playing alright, but I feel we get them at home W
 

@Houston - Great defense but we can bully great defenses and our defense is rolling.  W
 

@Pittsburgh - Sooner or later we slip up L
 

Cincinnati -  W.  
 

@New England - no way we don't come out fired up for this one. Bills love to crush when it matters W
 

@Cleveland -  W 
 

Philadelphia - Feel like we will let one slip here  L
 

New York Jets -  W

 

I don't think this is crazy, we would end up 13-4. If we really take care of business, 14-3. No 1 seed in play.

 

13-4 might get 1 seed.   I can't see Denver and Indy being more than 12-5.  NE....well we will see.   

Edited 3 hours ago by Warriorspikes51

[Alphadawg7]

On 10/14/2025 at 5:48 AM, dorquemada said:

So, here's who we have left.  I'm interested in the collective's thoughts around which of these games we'll win.  

 

@Carolina - Manhandled Atlanta a few weeks back.  Not a good team but seemingly unpredictable.  Really no idea on this one.  Coming off the bye I have to believe it's a W
 

KC - KC is coming on and we're fading, or that will be the narrative.  KC hasn't beat us in a while in regular season but getting some guys back as we're losing more.  Calling this an L.  Even if the rosters were more or less equal there's a yawning chasm between the capabilities of the coaching staffs.  As organizations ultimately reflect their leadership, this becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
 

@Miami - this is the acid test.  If we can't win this time to tank for whatever undersized high  motor DL that Beane covets most.  Call it a W
 

Tampa - Tampa playing solid ball now. Mayfield finally delivering on his promise.  This is an L
 

@Houston - No idea here.  They seem to have some of the same problems the bills do, and we havent been good against them.  L
 

@Pittsburgh - Again, a team that gives us fits.  Rogers will likely feast on our bend then break defense.  Cutesy playcalling against the D will go nowhere L
 

Cincinnati - should be a W.  They're just in a tough place though we have exactly nobody to cover those WRs.
 

@New England - right now this is a L strait up, but hoping we see a regression to the mean between now and then.  Hope is our best strategy!
 

@Cleveland - pretty sure they're running for the busses by this point and we'll be in dire straits needing a W to try to get a wild card spot.  Maybe we'll be playing against the legendary Shedeur?
 

Philadelphia - unless the eagles have the top spot locked up and are starting their scrubs, I dont see a win here.  Or why not, Allen decides to don the cape and goes all world.  W
 

New York Jets - we'll need a win to get a wildcard.  Jets are hapless.  W

 

Does 10-7 get us a wild card? Not sure it matters because we simply don't have the horses to make noise in January.

 

 

 

Only game in question is Philly.  That one can go either way, we can beat them and they can beat us.  Tough opponent.  But outside that one game, we will win the rest of the games we don't sit our starters (like if we sit them week 18 or somethng).   

 

We already smacked down Carolina and KC.  We will beat Miami by multiple scores.  Tampa is not close to the team it was earlier in the year, we will beat them cleanly.  Houston is a bad team with a tough defense.  We will win comfortably.  Pittsburgh will be a comfortable win.  Cincy isn't on our level and we will score 40+.  We will be NE by multiple scores, and would have the first time if we didn't self inflict wounds.  Cleveland is an easy win.  Jets is a slam dunk if we need to win that game.

 

 

[PoundingDog]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

We will beat Miami by multiple scores.  Tampa is not close to the team it was earlier in the year, we will beat them cleanly.  Houston is a bad team with a tough defense.  We will win comfortably.  Pittsburgh will be a comfortable win.  Cincy isn't on our level and we will score 40+.  We will be NE by multiple scores, and would have the first time if we didn't self inflict wounds.  Cleveland is an easy win.  Jets is a slam dunk if we need to win that game.

I like your optimism - the Bills did play their best game this season beating the Chiefs. But I'm not expecting it is the case for every game going forward. Likewise the opposing teams can play up or down in a season too. I don't know what kind of Tampa team in two weeks, but I do like Bills chances in general. Houston is a big wildcard and I think the most likely loss in my book: short week, top defense. Pittsburgh can play really well or really bad on defense; I don't think a comfortable win with Rogers playing at a level he hasn't been for a few years. 

 

One question I'd ask is how many ways the Bills can beat an opponent? If Josh does not play well, do we have a chance? I think what McDermott wants is to make it a yes answer. But that answer requires 1) Cook to play well and 2) the defense to play well. For the most part this season, we don't get 2).  In the Chiefs game, we got 1) and 2) AND Josh playing well, that's why it is the most lopsided victory against the Chiefs (even though the score does not reflect that and like Eric Wood said, it felt like if we pressed, we could score more in that game). I just don't believe any team can count on all 3 to show up for 9 games in a row to make a prediction. 

Edited 1 hour ago by PoundingDog