Do The Bills Have A Passing Game Problem?

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Exactly where I'm at. Everyone was stressed about the INTs, but it didn't really bother me as his yards and TDs more than enough made up for it. 

 

And come playoff time, he always cleaned the INTs when it mattered most.

yup

 

imo folks got too self conscious listening to nfl media regurgitate 'allens turnover problem' ad nauseum

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Exactly where I'm at. Everyone was stressed about the INTs, but it didn't really bother me as his yards and TDs more than enough made up for it. 

 

And come playoff time, he always cleaned the INTs when it mattered most.

 

It wasn't the INTs that bothered me about the offense previously. It was as soon as we didn't have peak Diggs within it the boom and bust nature became very much more bust. We'd have whole quarters, even halves of football in the first half of that 2023 season where we couldn't get first downs, sustain drives or score points.

 

I would love to go back to 2021 playoff offense. But you can't do that with this cast of skill position players. It would be doomed to fail. Even with Josh Allen. 

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, 26TrapDraw said:

Enron?

Well played

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It wasn't the INTs that bothered me about the offense previously. It was as soon as we didn't have peak Diggs within it the boom and bust nature became very much more bust. We'd have whole quarters, even halves of football in the first half of that 2023 season where we couldn't get first downs, sustain drives or score points.

 

I would love to go back to 2021 playoff offense. But you can't do that with this cast of skill position players. It would be doomed to fail. Even with Josh Allen. 

Ya it's hard to dispute that. But the overall root of what I'm saying is this is the offence McDermott/Beane wants. 
 

He doesn't want a 30 million dollar receiver and to throw it 40 times a game.

He wants to play clock control, limit mistakes and grind you out . Which I personally disagree with that philosophy, when Josh Allen is your QB

[Big Turk]

Kind of hilarious we are squabbling about 420 yards a game and 34 points a game while this is also true...

 

 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Ya it's hard to dispute that. But the overall root of what I'm saying is this is the offence McDermott/Beane wants. 
 

He doesn't want a 30 million dollar receiver and to throw it 40 times a game.

He wants to play clock control, limit mistakes and grind you out . Which I personally disagree with that philosophy, when Josh Allen is your QB

 

I don't disagree too much with that. I'm not sure they want to "grind it out" I think that over eggs it - they are not a 3 yards and a cloud of dust team. But they definitely value efficiency over explosiveness on offense.  Brandon Beane came from an organisation that didn't value receiver and hasn't valued receiver here. McDermott doesn't like divas, he likes "team guys" and I imagine the Diggs experience further embedded that view - and lots of WRs are divas. I predicted the day Beane was hired he would spend less draft capital on receivers than I would like him to and that has been pretty much the case. 

 

I wish they'd invest more in receiver in the draft. Even this year where I understand why it wasn't on the table in round 1 and I don't think it really fell that way on day 2... they still drafted a second IDL, a run blocking tight end, and a backup nickel corner in rounds 4 and 5 when there were explosive, developmental receivers on the board. I am not just saying it because he has popped early in the return game (I'm on record here as saying it at the time and in the aftermath of Beane's WGR interview) but Id have given up Hawes or Hancock and any of the 6th round picks to go up a few spots for Tory Horton. I think he has potential to be an impact player. 

 

9 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Kind of hilarious we are squabbling about 420 yards a game and 34 points a game while this is also true...

 

 

 

Yep. And unless you are playing Dallas completing deep balls looks darn hard.

 

Edited September 22 by GunnerBill

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, JP51 said:

Its hard to argue with the fact we have put up 30 or more points in all of our games...  for an average of almost 34 pts a game... I get the thought, the eye test tells us that we are not completing the ball down field as much... I have not seen the breakdown, but it sure feels that way... that said... lots of drops down field I get there are always drops, but geez it seems we have a bunch especially Coleman and Knox.... we have not seen a deep ball or very little...  that said, I wonder if its the game plan... control the ball, have 17 get it out quick and not take punishment...  especially against team that we are supposed to beat... Baltimore he was lighting it up... then a more conservative ball out approach the next two games... Problem... not sure, don't think so, but if it is its a problem with receivers not 17...  JMO

 

If people think that the Bills have a "problem" with the passing game, then they can't exempt Allen from being part of the "problem" because he's been frequently throwing to check-down targets even when there were open options downfield.   For myself, I don't think the Bills have a passing "problem" at all.  On offense, they are the kind of team they want to be:  efficient, methodical, conservative.  They aren't going to sling the ball around just because they can.  A team that rolls up 250+ passing yards in a single quarter against a defense as strong as Baltimore's doesn't have a "passing problem"; they simply choose not to do so except when they feel they need to do so.

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't disagree too much with that. I'm not sure they want to "grind it out" I think that over eggs it - they are not a 3 yards and a cloud of dust team. But they definitely value efficiency over explosiveness on offense.  Brandon Beane came from an organisation that didn't value receiver and hasn't valued receiver here. McDermott doesn't like divas, he likes "team guys" and I imagine the Diggs experience further embedded that view - and lots of WRs are divas. I predicted the day Beane was hired he would spend less draft capital on receivers than I would like him to and that has been pretty much the case. 

 

I wish they'd invest more in receiver in the draft. Even this year where I understand why it wasn't on the table in round 1 and I don't think it really fell that way on day 2... they still drafted a second IDL, a run blocking tight end, and a backup nickel corner in rounds 4 and 5 when there were explosive, developmental receivers on the board. I am not just saying it because he has popped early in the return game but Id have given up Hawes or Hancock and any of the 6th round picks to go up a few spots for Tory Horton. I think he has potential to be an impact player. 

 

Yep. And unless you are playing Dallas completing deep balls looks darn hard.

 

Ya that's pretty much spot on. Like you said, if you don't want a 30 million dollar receiver that's a diva , fine I can get that . But should have thrown a day 2 pick at WR in my opinion or double dipped in 2024.

 

Or like you said, Horton. Looked pretty damn good yesterday for Seattle 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, BillsFan130 said:

Ya that's pretty much spot on. Like you said, if you don't want a 30 million dollar receiver that's a diva , fine I can get that . But should have thrown a day 2 pick at WR in my opinion or double dipped in 2024.

 

Or like you said, Horton. Looked pretty damn good yesterday for Seattle 

 

Yea day 2 this past draft wasn't really the sweet spot, certainly not where the Bills picks were (there were a couple of guys who went early day 3 I'd have been willing to take if we had our original 3rd rounder at the end of the round still). But I was in favour of double dipping in 2024 and I was in favour of an early day 3 pick this year - I thought there were some developmental pieces there with explosiveness and upside. 

 

I would rather the team was built around explosive receivers than an explosive running back. But here we are. If Cook gets hurt the overall offensive speed on this roster is pitiful. Elijah Moore and not much else. 

[JP51]

16 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

If people think that the Bills have a "problem" with the passing game, then they can't exempt Allen from being part of the "problem" because he's been frequently throwing to check-down targets even when there were open options downfield.   For myself, I don't think the Bills have a passing "problem" at all.  On offense, they are the kind of team they want to be:  efficient, methodical, conservative.  They aren't going to sling the ball around just because they can.  A team that rolls up 250+ passing yards in a single quarter against a defense as strong as Baltimore's doesn't have a "passing problem"; they simply choose not to do so except when they feel they need to do so.

I think yours is a fair take like literally, if you have a problem how can the QB not be included.... the only point I would bring up is that "Is the offensive game plan to not throw down field"  this potentially could remove Allen from the equation, like he is just following the game plan (then this is not a problem, its a design) ... and with 34 points a game  I dont think we have a problem.

 

I understand the posters and they eye test...  I too am wondering what down field looks like to him.. like are these guys not getting open or is he just taking higher percentage throws by design.... ?  I think we are and have been in a everyone wants a superbowl soooo badly that anything else other than complete dominance is not acceptable... and the reality it just doesnt work like that. 

[26TrapDraw]

49 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Well played

You gonna be at the patriots game. You are on the must meet list

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't disagree too much with that. I'm not sure they want to "grind it out" I think that over eggs it - they are not a 3 yards and a cloud of dust team. But they definitely value efficiency over explosiveness on offense.  Brandon Beane came from an organisation that didn't value receiver and hasn't valued receiver here. McDermott doesn't like divas, he likes "team guys" and I imagine the Diggs experience further embedded that view - and lots of WRs are divas. I predicted the day Beane was hired he would spend less draft capital on receivers than I would like him to and that has been pretty much the case. 

 

I wish they'd invest more in receiver in the draft. Even this year where I understand why it wasn't on the table in round 1 and I don't think it really fell that way on day 2... they still drafted a second IDL, a run blocking tight end, and a backup nickel corner in rounds 4 and 5 when there were explosive, developmental receivers on the board. I am not just saying it because he has popped early in the return game (I'm on record here as saying it at the time and in the aftermath of Beane's WGR interview) but Id have given up Hawes or Hancock and any of the 6th round picks to go up a few spots for Tory Horton. I think he has potential to be an impact player. 

 

 

Yep. And unless you are playing Dallas completing deep balls looks darn hard.

 

there's actually data from last season that suggests it actually isn't that difficult (completing deep throws vs modern shell type defenses), teams just aren't doing it

 

...

The average depth of throw against two-high coverages was 7.8 yards in 2020. It has dropped all the way to just 6.6 yards in 2024. Offenses threw the ball an average of 1.9 yards short of the first-down marker against two-high in 2020. This year, they are throwing an average of 3.2 yards short of the sticks against the same coverages. In 2020, 11.6% of passes against two-high traveled at least 20 yards in the air. This season, that number is all the way down to just 9% of passes.

 

These aren't the overall numbers. They are JUST against two-high. Teams are getting worse at attacking these coverages because they are surrendering to what the defense wants them to do. Completion percentages against two-high are slightly up. Drop rates on those throws are down. The rates of off-target throws are down. "Take what the defense gives you" is a common theory of offense, and teams are taking that to heart -- but it's not working in their favor.

 

And here's the other thing: teams that do throw deep against two-high safety looks are seeing more success than ever before. On throws of 15-plus air yards against two-high so far this season, NFL teams have a 50% success rate. Quarterbacks have a 19.9% off-target throw rate, 8.1% touchdown rate, 5.1% interception rate and 35.3% explosive-play rate, while receivers have dropped just 2.9% of their throws. Teams are gaining an average of 13.3 yards per attempt and 0.65 EPA per dropback. All of those numbers are the best of any season since at least 2019...

 

 

[Buffalo716]

Knox and Kincaid are solid weapons 

 

Cook and Johnson 

 

Shakir , Coleman , Palmer, Moore can are also solid NFL players

 

8 guys Josh can throw too and he can create himself 

 

This offense has plenty of options

[GunnerBill]

37 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

there's actually data from last season that suggests it actually isn't that difficult (completing deep throws vs modern shell type defenses), teams just aren't doing it

 

...

The average depth of throw against two-high coverages was 7.8 yards in 2020. It has dropped all the way to just 6.6 yards in 2024. Offenses threw the ball an average of 1.9 yards short of the first-down marker against two-high in 2020. This year, they are throwing an average of 3.2 yards short of the sticks against the same coverages. In 2020, 11.6% of passes against two-high traveled at least 20 yards in the air. This season, that number is all the way down to just 9% of passes.

 

These aren't the overall numbers. They are JUST against two-high. Teams are getting worse at attacking these coverages because they are surrendering to what the defense wants them to do. Completion percentages against two-high are slightly up. Drop rates on those throws are down. The rates of off-target throws are down. "Take what the defense gives you" is a common theory of offense, and teams are taking that to heart -- but it's not working in their favor.

 

And here's the other thing: teams that do throw deep against two-high safety looks are seeing more success than ever before. On throws of 15-plus air yards against two-high so far this season, NFL teams have a 50% success rate. Quarterbacks have a 19.9% off-target throw rate, 8.1% touchdown rate, 5.1% interception rate and 35.3% explosive-play rate, while receivers have dropped just 2.9% of their throws. Teams are gaining an average of 13.3 yards per attempt and 0.65 EPA per dropback. All of those numbers are the best of any season since at least 2019...

 

 

 

The deep shot comment was a tongue in cheek jab at Dallas to be clear. 

[dave mcbride]

The Bills are first in the league in yards, 3rd in points, 2nd in points per drive, 2nd in yards per drive, 1st in rushing yards, 1st in rushing attempts, and 1st in turnovers lost (meaning fewest). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2025.htm

 

What are we complaining about again?

[GoBills808]

24 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The Bills are first in the league in yards, 3rd in points, 2nd in points per drive, 2nd in yards per drive, 1st in rushing yards, 1st in rushing attempts, and 1st in turnovers lost (meaning fewest). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2025.htm

 

What are we complaining about again?

likely the same things people were complaining about during Dorsey offense when we also had good metrics

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

likely the same things people were complaining about during Dorsey offense when we also had good metrics

I do think there were problems with the Dorsey offense despite the metrics. I don't think he was great situationally and the offense had WAY too many turnovers. They were 31st in offensive turnovers in 2023 (meaning only one team had more) and 23rd in 2022. In 2024, they were first.

Edited September 22 by dave mcbride

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I do think there were problems with the Dorsey offense despite the metrics. I don't think he was great situationally and the offense had WAY too many turnovers. They were 31st in offensive turnovers in 2023 (meaning only one team had more) and 23rd in 2022. In 2024, they were first.

 

The Dorsey metrics fell off a cliff at the end of his time here as well. He was fired deservedly. I thought he did a reasonable job his one full year (2022) But 2023 was going downhill fast. It started in London where the offense was brutal and it snowballed from there. It was definitely the right decision to move on. Brady is a better OC. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I do think there were problems with the Dorsey offense despite the metrics. I don't think he was great situationally and the offense had WAY too many turnovers. They were 31st in offensive turnovers in 2023 (meaning only one team had more) and 23rd in 2022. In 2024, they were first.

my thesis (then and now) was the turnover issue was not as important as folks made it out

 

overall im just saying people can look at the same thing and come to different conclusions and that's ok

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

The Bills are first in the league in yards, 3rd in points, 2nd in points per drive, 2nd in yards per drive, 1st in rushing yards, 1st in rushing attempts, and 1st in turnovers lost (meaning fewest). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2025.htm

 

What are we complaining about again?

 

They are taking what the defense gives them and avoiding turnovers.

 

Add to that as good as Allen is, he has struggled with accuracy of deep balls.  He's under thrown, over thrown and everything in between in the past.