3 Historical trends why KC doesn’t make playoffs or loses in Wildcard game

[BillytheKid]

(I wrote this…This is why I don’t think KC makes the playoffs or if they do they get beat in the Wildcard round.)
 

 

Three Strikes Against the Chiefs: Why History Says 2025 Could Be a Fall from Grace

The Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2025 season with a résumé unmatched in modern NFL history: three straight Super Bowl appearances, back-to-back titles in 2022–23 and 2023–24, and a flawless 11-0 record in one-score games last season — only to lose the Super Bowl by 18 points. But beneath the surface of this dominance lies a convergence of three historical red flags — and no team has ever faced all three at once.

---

⚠️ Red Flag #1: Undefeated in One-Score Games

Teams that dominate one-score games often regress hard the following season. The margin for error is razor-thin, and luck tends to even out.

• 2022 Vikings: 11-0 → 7-10, missed playoffs
• 2015 Panthers: 10-0 → 6-10, missed playoffs
• 1998 Falcons: 9-0 Super Bowl loss → 5-11, missed playoffs

• 2020 Steelers: 8-0 → Wildcard loss

• 2006 Colts: 9-0  Won Super Bowl → Lost in divisional round

Historical hit rate:

• ✅ ~40% chance to make playoffs
• ❌ 0% chance to reach the AFC Championship the following year

---

🏆 Red Flag #2: Three Straight Super Bowl Appearances

Only three other teams have made it to three straight Super Bowls prior to KC. None of them won the Super Bowl the following year.

 

• 1971–73 Dolphins: Lost in divisional round after winning back to back Super Bowls. 

• 1990–93 Bills: Missed playoffs after fourth straight appearance• Note: They did return to the Super Bowl after their third straight, but they had never won two in a row or gone undefeated in one-score games the year prior — unlike Kansas City.

 

• 2016–18 Patriots: Lost in Wildcard round

Kansas City (2023-25) Only one out of these 4 teams to go 11-0 in one score games the previous year.

 

Historical hit rate:

• ✅ 100% chance to make playoffs
• ⚠️ ~33% chance to return to the Super Bowl
• ❌ 0% chance to win it

---

💥 Red Flag #3: Losing a Super Bowl by 14+ Points

Teams that get blown out in the Super Bowl rarely bounce back strong. Since 2000, here’s what happened the following year:

• 2000 Giants: Missed playoffs
• 2002 Raiders: Missed playoffs
• 2014 Broncos: Lost in divisional round
• 2015 Panthers: Missed playoffs
• 2021 Chiefs: Lost AFC Championship• Only team to return to the AFC title game — but they hadn’t gone undefeated in one-score games the year prior.

• 2025 Chiefs: Lost by 18 points — results pending

Historical hit rate:

• ⚠️ ~20–30% chance to make playoffs
• ❌ ~10% chance to reach AFC Championship
• ❌ ~0–3% chance to return to Super Bowl

---

📉 The Verdict: No Precedent, No Safety Net

Each of these trends alone has historically spelled trouble. But no team has ever entered a season with all three stacked against them. Kansas City is the first.

📊 Combined Odds Based on Historical Precedent

Outcome    Estimated Odds    
Make Playoffs    25–35%    
Reach AFC Championship    5–10%    
Make Super Bowl    0–3%    
Win Super Bowl    0%    

 

🔮 Prediction: The Fall Is Coming

History doesn’t just whisper — it screams. The Chiefs are walking into a statistical buzzsaw. If the past is any guide, they’ll either miss the playoffs entirely or exit early in the Wildcard round.

 

Betting man like myself, odds of Chiefs not making playoffs anywhere from +290 to +310 or take 

 

Baltimore and Buffalo winning the AFC Championship both at +350. 

 

[Mikie2times]

Looks like some AI emojis unless you're actually my mom

[Tortured Soul]

Seems like a lot of small sample sizes. Would you take an even money bet against the chiefs making the divisional round?

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, Tortured Soul said:

Seems like a lot of small sample sizes. Would you take an even money bet against the chiefs making the divisional round?

Football is a small sample size sport

 

And why would you take that bet when it's listed at +300 lol

[BuffaloBill]

(Andy Reid + Patrick Mahomes) X ((Steve Spagnolo + Chris Jones) + (Chiefs better special teams)) = problem for the Bills.

 

Josh Allen can’t fix the equation on his own. The often talked about problem for the Bills is defense and then to a lessor extent less effective coaching on the Bills sideline and poorer Bills special teams.

[BillytheKid]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Football is a small sample size sport

 

And why would you take that bet when it's listed at +300 lol

I’m a professional sports handicapper. Have been for over 30 years.

 

I know what I’m doing. It’s not like it’s a huge wager. I think KC struggles this year. Don’t care what anyone else thinks.
 

Betting certain patterns that happen over and over again works better than anything else as far as future bets go. If it loses no biggie. It’s one wager. 
 

I make 20 wagers a week. I’m not some guy wagering one bet a year like most here. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Tortured Soul said:

Seems like a lot of small sample sizes. Would you take an even money bet against the chiefs making the divisional round?

It’s small sample size on some of them because it doesn’t happen very often. I can go back further on the teams that go undefeated in one score games and they all do horrible for the most part all the way back to the 60’s.

 

I just chose to use the more modern era. Didn’t need to use all of it when it speaks for itself from the year 2000 on. 

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

Looks like some AI emojis unless you're actually my mom

I wrote it and had AI clean some of it up for me. 
 

So what’s your point? I’m the one that did all of the data research. 

42 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

(Andy Reid + Patrick Mahomes) X ((Steve Spagnolo + Chris Jones) + (Chiefs better special teams)) = problem for the Bills.

 

Josh Allen can’t fix the equation on his own. The often talked about problem for the Bills is defense and then to a lessor extent less effective coaching on the Bills sideline and poorer Bills special teams.

This has nothing to do with the Bills. It has to do with KC and KC only. 

[BillytheKid]

Add on to all of that the San Diego and Denver will both be a lot better and I think Kelce will suck this year and KC will struggle more than people think. 

[GoBills808]

12 minutes ago, BillytheKid said:

I’m a professional sports handicapper. Have been for over 30 years.

 

I know what I’m doing. It’s not like it’s a huge wager. I think KC struggles this year. Don’t care what anyone else thinks.
 

no i mean i tend to agree, i think there's more value there than most likely do

 

i was asking the guy who offered -110 why he thought that was a good idea lol

[Goin Breakdown]

52 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

(Andy Reid + Patrick Mahomes) X ((Steve Spagnolo + Chris Jones) + (Chiefs better special teams)) = problem for the Bills.

 

Josh Allen can’t fix the equation on his own. The often talked about problem for the Bills is defense and then to a lessor extent less effective coaching on the Bills sideline and poorer Bills special teams.

Can you copy and save this post incase it's needed later in the season?  It's pretty perfect and sums it up tightly. 

[Zerovoltz]

Before I get run out of town.......I think the Bills breakthrough this year.  (and that's becasue I assume Bosa was the missing piece). 

 

The Chiefs are 2-0 in the Mahomes era, in playoff games, where the oppsing team blocks a punt for a touchdown.  

 

Mahomes is 5-1 in playoff games where KC failed to force a turnover.  I think only one other QB (brady) even has a winning record in that case.  The entire rest of the NFL history has no QB's with a winning record in that case.

 

...I can go on.  The Mahomes/Reid Chiefs, do stuff that you normally don't do and expect to win.  some is luck, some is that there great.... but reading through your stats....you don't account for a lot of things that provide context...lke the 2016 Broncos winning a Superbowl, with a bad and retiring Manning, then missing the playoffs with Trevor Simieon as the starting QB the next year?  I could tear down the whole thing with stuff you didn't account for.

 

 

[Augie]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBill said:

(Andy Reid + Patrick Mahomes) X ((Steve Spagnolo + Chris Jones) + (Chiefs better special teams)) = problem for the Bills.

 

Josh Allen can’t fix the equation on his own. The often talked about problem for the Bills is defense and then to a lessor extent less effective coaching on the Bills sideline and poorer Bills special teams.

 

Thank you, bonus points and a gold star for showing your work. 

[MJS]

The NFL is just not predictable using historical trends.

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

Before I get run out of town.......I think the Bills breakthrough this year.  (and that's becasue I assume Bosa was the missing piece). 

 

The Chiefs are 2-0 in the Mahomes era, in playoff games, where the oppsing team blocks a punt for a touchdown.  

 

Mahomes is 5-1 in playoff games where KC failed to force a turnover.  I think only one other QB (brady) even has a winning record in that case.  The entire rest of the NFL history has no QB's with a winning record in that case.

 

...I can go on.  The Mahomes/Reid Chiefs, do stuff that you normally don't do and expect to win.  some is luck, some is that there great.... but reading through your stats....you don't account for a lot of things that provide context...lke the 2016 Broncos winning a Superbowl, with a bad and retiring Manning, then missing the playoffs with Trevor Simieon as the starting QB the next year?  I could tear down the whole thing with stuff you didn't account for.

 

 

how many of those 5wins are against the bills lol

[Billl]

7 minutes ago, MJS said:

The NFL is just not predictable using historical trends.

You don’t think the 1999 Atlanta Falcons tells us what to expect from the 2025 Chiefs?

[GoBills808]

16 minutes ago, MJS said:

The NFL is just not predictable using historical trends.

Spoken like a true non gambler 

[HappyDays]

13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

how many of those 5wins are against the bills lol

 

3 of them.

[GoBills808]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

3 of them.

😂😂

lol i was being rhetorical but thank you

 

of course the guy who wants to come and lecture on context would neglect to mention that little tidbit...football fans are so ***** dumb

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, BillytheKid said:

I wrote it and had AI clean some of it up for me. 
 

Ever notice most people that say "I'm not a racist" as the first sentence are usually racist. I just found it funny that your first words were "I wrote this" and then followed a post that was clearly written by AI. Nothing wrong with it I guess? I think most here would prefer authenticity in posts. AI can spit out anything in seconds. Hard to sort out the "original" content from everything else. I responded to your post below. 

3 hours ago, BillytheKid said:

(I wrote this…This is why I don’t think KC makes the playoffs or if they do they get beat in the Wildcard round.)
 

 

Three Strikes Against the Chiefs: Why History Says 2025 Could Be a Fall from Grace

The Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2025 season with a résumé unmatched in modern NFL history: three straight Super Bowl appearances, back-to-back titles in 2022–23 and 2023–24, and a flawless 11-0 record in one-score games last season — only to lose the Super Bowl by 18 points. But beneath the surface of this dominance lies a convergence of three historical red flags — and no team has ever faced all three at once.

---

⚠️ Red Flag #1: Undefeated in One-Score Games

Teams that dominate one-score games often regress hard the following season. The margin for error is razor-thin, and luck tends to even out.

• 2022 Vikings: 11-0 → 7-10, missed playoffs
• 2015 Panthers: 10-0 → 6-10, missed playoffs
• 1998 Falcons: 9-0 Super Bowl loss → 5-11, missed playoffs

• 2020 Steelers: 8-0 → Wildcard loss

• 2006 Colts: 9-0  Won Super Bowl → Lost in divisional round

Historical hit rate:

• ✅ ~40% chance to make playoffs
• ❌ 0% chance to reach the AFC Championship the following year

---

🏆 Red Flag #2: Three Straight Super Bowl Appearances

Only three other teams have made it to three straight Super Bowls prior to KC. None of them won the Super Bowl the following year.

 

• 1971–73 Dolphins: Lost in divisional round after winning back to back Super Bowls. 

• 1990–93 Bills: Missed playoffs after fourth straight appearance• Note: They did return to the Super Bowl after their third straight, but they had never won two in a row or gone undefeated in one-score games the year prior — unlike Kansas City.

 

• 2016–18 Patriots: Lost in Wildcard round

Kansas City (2023-25) Only one out of these 4 teams to go 11-0 in one score games the previous year.

 

Historical hit rate:

• ✅ 100% chance to make playoffs
• ⚠️ ~33% chance to return to the Super Bowl
• ❌ 0% chance to win it

---

💥 Red Flag #3: Losing a Super Bowl by 14+ Points

Teams that get blown out in the Super Bowl rarely bounce back strong. Since 2000, here’s what happened the following year:

• 2000 Giants: Missed playoffs
• 2002 Raiders: Missed playoffs
• 2014 Broncos: Lost in divisional round
• 2015 Panthers: Missed playoffs
• 2021 Chiefs: Lost AFC Championship• Only team to return to the AFC title game — but they hadn’t gone undefeated in one-score games the year prior.

• 2025 Chiefs: Lost by 18 points — results pending

Historical hit rate:

• ⚠️ ~20–30% chance to make playoffs
• ❌ ~10% chance to reach AFC Championship
• ❌ ~0–3% chance to return to Super Bowl

---

📉 The Verdict: No Precedent, No Safety Net

Each of these trends alone has historically spelled trouble. But no team has ever entered a season with all three stacked against them. Kansas City is the first.

📊 Combined Odds Based on Historical Precedent

Outcome    Estimated Odds    
Make Playoffs    25–35%    
Reach AFC Championship    5–10%    
Make Super Bowl    0–3%    
Win Super Bowl    0%    

 

🔮 Prediction: The Fall Is Coming

History doesn’t just whisper — it screams. The Chiefs are walking into a statistical buzzsaw. If the past is any guide, they’ll either miss the playoffs entirely or exit early in the Wildcard round.

 

Betting man like myself, odds of Chiefs not making playoffs anywhere from +290 to +310 or take 

 

Baltimore and Buffalo winning the AFC Championship both at +350. 

 

🔥 Why History Doesn’t Apply to the 2025 Chiefs: The Myth of the “Three Strikes” Curse

 

The Kansas City Chiefs are being written off by pundits and trend-watchers who claim that “history says” their reign is about to end. Their argument? The Chiefs fall under three dangerous historical patterns: undefeated in one-score games, three straight Super Bowl appearances, and a blowout loss in the big game.

 

But here’s the truth: history only rhymes — it doesn’t repeat. And more importantly, this Chiefs team is nothing like the historical comparisons being tossed around.

 

Let’s dismantle this narrative piece by piece:

 

⚠️ Red Flag #1: Undefeated in One-Score Games — “They Got Lucky!”

The Argument: Going 11-0 in one-score games means regression is inevitable. Past teams like the 2022 Vikings, 2015 Panthers, and 1998 Falcons all fell off after similar records.

 

The Flaw in the Argument:

 

This assumes all one-score wins are the same. They’re not. You need to ask: why were the Chiefs winning all those close games?

Patrick Mahomes + Andy Reid: This isn’t a team relying on luck or bounces. This is the best late-game QB in NFL history paired with one of the greatest playcallers ever. They win close because they execute when it matters.

Situational dominance: The 2024 Chiefs led the league in 2nd-half defensive DVOA and were 1st in EPA per play in the 4th quarter. That’s not randomness — that’s clutch execution.

The Vikings comparison falls flat: The 2022 Vikings were outscored on the season. The Chiefs had a +131 point differential in 2024. They weren't sneaking by teams — they were dominating and finishing.

What it actually means: The Chiefs win close because they’re better prepared and better coached — not because of coin-flip luck.

 

🏆 Red Flag #2: Three Straight Super Bowl Appearances — “They’re Due to Burn Out”

The Argument: No team has made it to four straight Super Bowls and won it. The Bills, Dolphins, and Patriots all fell off eventually.

 

The Flaw in the Argument:
Those teams didn't have the continuity or modern era advantages that KC has:

Mahomes isn’t Jim Kelly, Bob Griese, or even Brady at this stage. He’s entering his prime, not aging out. He’s faster, healthier, and has already rebuilt a receiving corps mid-dynasty — and still made the Super Bowl.

NFL is different in 2025: There’s a salary cap floor, more protected QBs, and fewer dynasty-killers (like devastating injuries or retirement exoduses). The Chiefs have adapted faster and better than any of their peers.

They got younger and faster this offseason. Rashee Rice suspension? They added Hollywood Brown and drafted Xavier Worthy. Defensive continuity is elite, and Chris Jones is still a top-3 interior force. They're not clinging to a fading core — they’re evolving on the fly.

What it actually means: The Chiefs are reloading, not declining. None of the previous three-peat Super Bowl teams were this balanced, this stable, or this well-led in Year 4.

 

💥 Red Flag #3: Losing the Super Bowl by 14+ — “Teams Don’t Bounce Back”

The Argument: Teams that get blown out in the Super Bowl usually collapse the next year. The Giants, Raiders, and Panthers all missed the playoffs. Even the 2021 Chiefs “only” made the AFC title game.

The Flaw in the Argument:
Blowout losses tell you more about how the game played out than the team’s overall strength.

The 2025 Super Bowl was a bad matchup, not a bad team. Philadelphias front seven overwhelmed KC’s offensive line — but that’s fixable. They've already added depth and speed at tackle. Mahomes was pressured 44% of dropbacks — you fix protection, you change the game.

The loss fuels hunger. Kansas City has rebounded from disappointment before:

Lost the 2018 AFC title game → Won the Super Bowl the next year.

Lost the 2020 Super Bowl → Returned to AFC title game.

Lost 2021 AFC title game → Back-to-back champs in 2022 and 2023.

What it actually means: A blowout loss motivates Mahomes and Reid. History shows this team thrives after defeat — it doesn’t fall apart.

 

📊 Combined Odds: History Has Never Faced This Team

That prediction post suggests “combined odds” that give KC a 0–3% chance to win the Super Bowl. Laughable.

You’re telling me a Mahomes/Reid team — with the best defense of their dynasty, multiple vertical weapons, elite coaching continuity, and a proven bounce-back record — has no shot?

Vegas disagrees. So does every executive in the league.

 

💡 The X-Factor: Patrick Mahomes Changes the Math

Mahomes is 15-3 in the playoffs.

Has never failed to make the AFC title game as a starter.

Since 2018: 74-22 record, 5 AFC Championships, 3 Super Bowl rings.

He's already defied every trend that history has tried to place on him. Why would this year be different?

 

🔁 Summary: Why This Narrative is Flawed

Red FlagHistory SuggestsWhy Chiefs Are Different

Undefeated in 1-score gamesRegression to meanMahomes/Reid dominate late-game situations

3 straight Super Bowl runsTeams declineChiefs are reloading, not aging

Super Bowl blowout lossMiss playoffs or early exitChiefs rebound stronger after defeat every time

 

🧠 Final Word

History says the Chiefs should fall. But history also said Mahomes couldn’t win a Super Bowl with a rebuilding O-line. History said no QB could reach six straight conference title games. History said dynasties don’t survive the cap era.

Mahomes and the Chiefs don’t just ignore history — they rewrite it.

If you're betting against them? You’re not reading the trends — you're ignoring the exception that’s become the rule.

Edited 18 hours ago by Mikie2times

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Ever notice most people that say "I'm not a racist" as the first sentence are usually racist. I just found it funny that your first words were "I wrote this" and then followed a post that was clearly written by AI. Nothing wrong with it I guess? I think most here would prefer authenticity in posts. AI can spit out anything in seconds. Hard to sort out the "original" content from everything else. But you do you boo.  

🔥 Why History Doesn’t Apply to the 2025 Chiefs: The Myth of the “Three Strikes” Curse

 

The Kansas City Chiefs are being written off by pundits and trend-watchers who claim that “history says” their reign is about to end. Their argument? The Chiefs fall under three dangerous historical patterns: undefeated in one-score games, three straight Super Bowl appearances, and a blowout loss in the big game.

 

But here’s the truth: history only rhymes — it doesn’t repeat. And more importantly, this Chiefs team is nothing like the historical comparisons being tossed around.

 

Let’s dismantle this narrative piece by piece:

 

⚠️ Red Flag #1: Undefeated in One-Score Games — “They Got Lucky!”

The Argument: Going 11-0 in one-score games means regression is inevitable. Past teams like the 2022 Vikings, 2015 Panthers, and 1998 Falcons all fell off after similar records.

 

The Flaw in the Argument:

 

This assumes all one-score wins are the same. They’re not. You need to ask: why were the Chiefs winning all those close games?

Patrick Mahomes + Andy Reid: This isn’t a team relying on luck or bounces. This is the best late-game QB in NFL history paired with one of the greatest playcallers ever. They win close because they execute when it matters.

Situational dominance: The 2024 Chiefs led the league in 2nd-half defensive DVOA and were 1st in EPA per play in the 4th quarter. That’s not randomness — that’s clutch execution.

The Vikings comparison falls flat: The 2022 Vikings were outscored on the season. The Chiefs had a +131 point differential in 2024. They weren't sneaking by teams — they were dominating and finishing.

What it actually means: The Chiefs win close because they’re better prepared and better coached — not because of coin-flip luck.

 

🏆 Red Flag #2: Three Straight Super Bowl Appearances — “They’re Due to Burn Out”

The Argument: No team has made it to four straight Super Bowls and won it. The Bills, Dolphins, and Patriots all fell off eventually.

 

The Flaw in the Argument:
Those teams didn't have the continuity or modern era advantages that KC has:

Mahomes isn’t Jim Kelly, Bob Griese, or even Brady at this stage. He’s entering his prime, not aging out. He’s faster, healthier, and has already rebuilt a receiving corps mid-dynasty — and still made the Super Bowl.

NFL is different in 2025: There’s a salary cap floor, more protected QBs, and fewer dynasty-killers (like devastating injuries or retirement exoduses). The Chiefs have adapted faster and better than any of their peers.

They got younger and faster this offseason. Rashee Rice suspension? They added Hollywood Brown and drafted Xavier Worthy. Defensive continuity is elite, and Chris Jones is still a top-3 interior force. They're not clinging to a fading core — they’re evolving on the fly.

What it actually means: The Chiefs are reloading, not declining. None of the previous three-peat Super Bowl teams were this balanced, this stable, or this well-led in Year 4.

 

💥 Red Flag #3: Losing the Super Bowl by 14+ — “Teams Don’t Bounce Back”

The Argument: Teams that get blown out in the Super Bowl usually collapse the next year. The Giants, Raiders, and Panthers all missed the playoffs. Even the 2021 Chiefs “only” made the AFC title game.

The Flaw in the Argument:
Blowout losses tell you more about how the game played out than the team’s overall strength.

The 2025 Super Bowl was a bad matchup, not a bad team. San Francisco’s front seven overwhelmed KC’s offensive line — but that’s fixable. They've already added depth and speed at tackle. Mahomes was pressured 44% of dropbacks — you fix protection, you change the game.

The loss fuels hunger. Kansas City has rebounded from disappointment before:

Lost the 2018 AFC title game → Won the Super Bowl the next year.

Lost the 2020 Super Bowl → Returned to AFC title game.

Lost 2021 AFC title game → Back-to-back champs in 2022 and 2023.

What it actually means: A blowout loss motivates Mahomes and Reid. History shows this team thrives after defeat — it doesn’t fall apart.

 

📊 Combined Odds: History Has Never Faced This Team

That prediction post suggests “combined odds” that give KC a 0–3% chance to win the Super Bowl. Laughable.

You’re telling me a Mahomes/Reid team — with the best defense of their dynasty, multiple vertical weapons, elite coaching continuity, and a proven bounce-back record — has no shot?

Vegas disagrees. So does every executive in the league.

 

💡 The X-Factor: Patrick Mahomes Changes the Math

Mahomes is 15-3 in the playoffs.

Has never failed to make the AFC title game as a starter.

Since 2018: 74-22 record, 5 AFC Championships, 3 Super Bowl rings.

He's already defied every trend that history has tried to place on him. Why would this year be different?

 

🔁 Summary: Why This Narrative is Flawed

Red FlagHistory SuggestsWhy Chiefs Are Different

Undefeated in 1-score gamesRegression to meanMahomes/Reid dominate late-game situations

3 straight Super Bowl runsTeams declineChiefs are reloading, not aging

Super Bowl blowout lossMiss playoffs or early exitChiefs rebound stronger after defeat every time

 

🧠 Final Word

History says the Chiefs should fall. But history also said Mahomes couldn’t win a Super Bowl with a rebuilding O-line. History said no QB could reach six straight conference title games. History said dynasties don’t survive the cap era.

Mahomes and the Chiefs don’t just ignore history — they rewrite it.

If you're betting against them? You’re not reading the trends — you're ignoring the exception that’s become the rule.

im pretty sure the Chiefs didn't have a +131 point in 2024

[Mikie2times]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

im pretty sure the Chiefs didn't have a +131 point in 2024

You cant always trust AI