Hypothetical NFL players that could be traded for a 1st

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

What's the bust percentage of WR's drafted in the back half of the first round?

I haven’t looked but I’d venture a guess that it’s no worse than any other position. I just eyeballed the last 5 years and almost all of them have been good (picks 20-32). DB on the other hand 😬😬. I don’t have the energy to go through each position and chart it but at first glance it looks to me like a mix of stars, good starters and a couple of “guys.” I don’t see any guys that don’t belong in the league (like Lewis Cine for example). So basically the floor would be a guy similar to Samuel or Palmer. 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

What's the bust percentage of WR's drafted in the back half of the first round?

so last year is a little early but we have BTJ, Pearsall, Legette and Worthy, one of whom is legit right out of the box 

yr before Jaxon Smith-Njigba/Quentin Johnson/Zay Flowers/Jordan Addison...extremely strong group

then the aforementioned Burks and Dotson but going right before them in the middle of rd 1 is Garrett Wilson/Olave/Jameson Williams, three excellent wideouts

before that Bateman and Kadarius Toney

and the year before that, picks at WR first round #16 and lower were CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Reagor, and Brandon Aiyuk

 

so thats basically 5 years of really strong WR talent at the back of the first

 

[DaggersEOD]

"Missing out: Several Bills players come close, but CB Christian Benford and WR Khalil Shakir aren't really significant bargains anymore after signing their new extensions."

 

I thought we had Benford at a bargain? Do I understand that incorrectly?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

no

 

he was never a top 5 receiver until he got here. he was producing at the 15-20 range. 15 is a generous rank for him when arrived and we still happily sent the first rounder

 

On pure production, sure. But on talent he was and I was saying that at the time too.

[GoBills808]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

On pure production, sure. But on talent he was and I was saying that at the time too.

look i liked him in minnesota too. the talent was undeniable. and i loved the trade for us

 

but my point is that there are a handful of guys in the league, any given year to yr, who fit his profile at the time as well

[BigAl2526]

Seven first round picks for Patrick Mahomes! LOL

[Orlando Buffalo]

Biggest issue for me is he overvalues the trade value of QBs and WR. lamar was free Agent not that long ago and no one was willing to give up two picks for the right to sign him to that contract. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

I just think draft capital is a better way of determining how much Beane invested at each specific position.  You obviously disagree.  I'd do that Diggs trade in a heartbeat again from where we were as a team with Josh still on his rookie contract because of every Justin Jefferson there's a Treylon Burks.  Anyone who watched the Vikings knew they were leaving a lot of meat on the bone with Diggs. 

 

I'm not even debating that Beane's failed miserably since then when it comes to drafting rookie WR's.  I know in his head he was thinking Diggs will be here at least through 2026, Davis can easily transition to the outside WR2 role, and McKenzie can effectively replace Beasley.  He should've been looking to draft a WR2 and an eventual Diggs replacement in the 1st or 2nd round going all the way back to 2021.  Doubling down at DE was stupid as Colliins and St. Brown for example were still on the board when the Basham abomination happened.  He could've traded up to draft Addison or Flowers who were his likely pick before that WR run happened and he had to pivot to Kincaid.  I was screaming to move up for Brian Thomas Jr. when he slipped that far.  He's failed miserably and the price is we're overpaying for middling FA's who've never even put up above 900 yards in a season in Samuel and Palmer.

I'm not one to give McD or Beane too much credit, but its not fair to criticize him for thinking Davis was going to turn into a solid #2. Yes he had drop issues but after that KC playoff game almost everyone thought he was going to be a star. He was developing nicely into a big play WR despite having elite speed. He made some very difficult catches even if he dropped some easy one.  He got Shakir probably a round later than when he was projected.

 

Also the White injury and the failure of Daryl Williams to keep playing RT at a high level meant he had to spend additional draft capital on CB and OL. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I'm not one to give McD or Beane too much credit, but its not fair to criticize him for thinking Davis was going to turn into a solid #2. Yes he had drop issues but after that KC playoff game almost everyone thought he was going to be a star. He was developing nicely into a big play WR despite having elite speed. He made some very difficult catches even if he dropped some easy one.  He got Shakir probably a round later than when he was projected.

 

Also the White injury and the failure of Daryl Williams to keep playing RT at a high level meant he had to spend additional draft capital on CB and OL. 

not true

there were quite a few people who thought it was a mistake handing him the #2 role and not bringing in any competition after that playoff run

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

not true

there were quite a few people who thought it was a mistake handing him the #2 role and not bringing in any competition after that playoff run

 

Agree and I was on that same train as you but we were not the majority after the KC game. The Gabe Davis hype train fully left the station. 

 

I am not saying the regime shouldn't be better than the fan majority by the way, they definitely should. But I can understand those who look back to that summer and say "ah its just hindsight" because the consensus was overwhelming.

[HardyBoy]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

I just think draft capital is a better way of determining how much Beane invested at each specific position.  You obviously disagree.  I'd do that Diggs trade in a heartbeat again from where we were as a team with Josh still on his rookie contract because of every Justin Jefferson there's a Treylon Burks.  Anyone who watched the Vikings knew they were leaving a lot of meat on the bone with Diggs. 

 

I'm not even debating that Beane's failed miserably since then when it comes to drafting rookie WR's.  I know in his head he was thinking Diggs will be here at least through 2026, Davis can easily transition to the outside WR2 role, and McKenzie can effectively replace Beasley.  He should've been looking to draft a WR2 and an eventual Diggs replacement in the 1st or 2nd round going all the way back to 2021.  Doubling down at DE was stupid as Colliins and St. Brown for example were still on the board when the Basham abomination happened.  He could've traded up to draft Addison or Flowers who were his likely pick before that WR run happened and he had to pivot to Kincaid.  I was screaming to move up for Brian Thomas Jr. when he slipped that far.  He's failed miserably and the price is we're overpaying for middling FA's who've never even put up above 900 yards in a season in Samuel and Palmer.

 

Is the issue the lack of drafting receivers in the first and especially the second round, or is it the fact that some of the d line picks busted or didnt match their pick value and then they had to spend more money on edge rushers instead of receivers. 

 

I think it's fair to assume most receivers take two years before they are really hitting their stride in year three and onward. Yes a rookie contract has value, but you're also in a lot of ways loosing two years of that value by drafting a receiver, where you can bring in high upside players on two year deals and hopefully maximize their skill set...Brown and Beasley for example...hopefully Palmer this year...plenty that haven't really worked out either for sure...but is the reason that it isn't working because of the roster building philosophical approach or selecting the wrong players or bad injury luck?

 

Like there is a time to ROI component in this as well I'd have to imagine...btw, I'm not saying I think this is right or your comment is wrong, I think it could be interesting to discuss.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

so last year is a little early but we have BTJ, Pearsall, Legette and Worthy, one of whom is legit right out of the box 

yr before Jaxon Smith-Njigba/Quentin Johnson/Zay Flowers/Jordan Addison...extremely strong group

then the aforementioned Burks and Dotson but going right before them in the middle of rd 1 is Garrett Wilson/Olave/Jameson Williams, three excellent wideouts

before that Bateman and Kadarius Toney

and the year before that, picks at WR first round #16 and lower were CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Reagor, and Brandon Aiyuk

 

so thats basically 5 years of really strong WR talent at the back of the first

 

 

Not going up for Jordan Addison was still a major error for me. Lots of chat here about whether the Bills trust themselves evaluating receivers.... well I know for a fact they loved Addison. He checked every box. They were all on board if he got to them he was their guy. And yet they sat on their hands and waited. 

 

Not going up for BTJ the next year was an error too but I don't know that they had the same conviction on him. They might have I just don't know that they did. But the scouts, Beane, the coaches, the background research, the analytics.... they were all in on Addison. And then just sat hoping he'd fall to them.

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

Xavier Worthy is apparently worth a first round pick?!  He had 59 receptions and 640 yards with Mahomes throwing to him.  Not to mention he wasn't exactly fighting hall of fame WR talent for his share of passes.

[Captain Hindsight]

18 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

Seven first round picks for Patrick Mahomes! LOL

He's played in every AFC Championship game since 2018. Thats an insane stat