Beane is good at drafting after all -- A look at 2022

[Billy Claude]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I think he's found some good players. He's had some whiffs too. 

 

I believe a lot of it falls on his drafting style. Seems he would rather find a few of what he calls "Steady Eddie's" each draft and play it safe over taking a big chance on elite talent with some character/injury flags. And drafting as late as we traditionally have under him, that's the type of player with elite potential he's going to see in the late 20s. 

 

He's more of a higher floor/lower ceiling type drafter. And that was the way to be the first few years while building culture and turning the team from drought era to perennial playoff team. 

 

I think he needs to take a few more risks. 

 

Maybe the last couple of years but before that Rousseau was regarded as a high ceiling, low floor guy and so were Knox and Elam.

[JP51]

16 hours ago, boater said:

The old dictum "you can't evaluate a draft for a couple years" rings true. The Buffalo News just did so. From the TBD front page, there is a link to a Buffalo News article about Beane's 2022 draft. Four of five picks were lauded because they became starters:

 

• The 2022 draft, though, could be the catalyst for the Bills completing their scale to the NFL apex – and they missed on their first-round pick, cornerback Kaiir Elam. They drafted Cook at No. 63, Bernard No. 89, Shakir No. 148 and Benford No. 185.

 

Elam was a bust, but otherwise 2022 was gold yielding four starters. Not a bad draft result for good old fella Beane. The News had comment regarding the importance of reaping draft picks who start and also those picks who make the team as backups:

 

• As the salaries of the Bills’ most important players rise via second and third contracts, so does the importance on finding cost-controlled, inexpensive labor. Players, who after a year of seasoning, can become starters. Players, who at the very least, can be valuable role options in case of injury. And players, ultimately, who can earn second contracts, removing the need to use a draft pick (or picks) to replace them.

 

Along the lines of draft picks who contribute, Beane has done well. He has had salary cap friendly draft picks make the team. I wish Beane's Pro Player personnel choices could achieve a similar level of success--that needs work, he has been disappointing in that department, IMO.

 

I look forward to judging the 2023 class next summer: Dalton Kincaid, O'Cyrus Torrence, Dorian Williams, Justin Shorter, Nick Broeker, and Alex Austin. Early assessment: the 2023 class has yielded three starters (the later three picks were cut). So 2023 is a mixed bag, his higher picks start and his washouts were disposable later round picks.

 

I honestly would say his drafting is improving... if you can get 3 starters out of a 7 round draft... you are doing really well... IMO...  If you look at 2022... you are looking at 3 ProBowl or ProBowl potential starters... thats a good draft... made the Elam thing into an ooops my bad..  

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Is O'Cyrus a starter in pen or pencil right now?

 

I think in pen. I'd be stunned if they started anyone other than the same five from last year, health allowing. 

[billsfan89]

16 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The 2022 draft was, despite a huge whiff on Elam, Beane's best class since 2018. It was critical too. 2023 only has two starters at this point though. 

2023 had two players come in and “plug and play” on offense while Dorian Williams has started and looks to be a nice find. It’s not a “home run” draft class but if Kincaid rebounds from a disappointing second season and Williams solidifies himself as a solid starter that’s gonna be a good draft class. Especially since the team didn’t have many picks in the draft class and used two selections to move down and pick up two 6th round picks in the 2024 draft.

 

If a draft produces two starters that’s not bad that’s probably an average class but if you can produce three starters on limited picks while that’s not a home run like the 2022 class that’s a very nice draft class that will help sustain winning.

[YattaOkasan]

Feel like were disrespecting Benford when we say Beane doesnt have enough home runs.  Maybe its the Elam of it all, but thats a top 10 (likely top 5) CB.  Thats got to be a home run.  I would consider Brown in that category too.  So 3 home runs in 8 draft classes seems pretty good to me.  I get that hes not finding these home runs in the first 2 rounds like we would expect or how other teams are doing it.  But I think hes still finding top 10 or top 5 guys at their position at a good rate.  

 

Another area Beane has done really well is extending his draft picks.  I only got two picks that I wanted retained (Wyatt Teller and Harrison Phillips); so hardly any concerns that were letting talent walk (which is tough while paying Josh).  

Edited July 21 by YattaOkasan

[RoscoeParrish]

29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think in pen. I'd be stunned if they started anyone other than the same five from last year, health allowing. 

Yes, but he’s also the odds on favorite to be benched mid season of the starting 5 as well tbh.

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

2023 had two players come in and “plug and play” on offense while Dorian Williams has started and looks to be a nice find. It’s not a “home run” draft class but if Kincaid rebounds from a disappointing second season and Williams solidifies himself as a solid starter that’s gonna be a good draft class. Especially since the team didn’t have many picks in the draft class and used two selections to move down and pick up two 6th round picks in the 2024 draft.

 

If a draft produces two starters that’s not bad that’s probably an average class but if you can produce three starters on limited picks while that’s not a home run like the 2022 class that’s a very nice draft class that will help sustain winning.

 

I'm less confident than you on Kincaid and Williams at this stage. And I liked both picks at the time. 

12 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Yes, but he’s also the odds on favorite to be benched mid season of the starting 5 as well tbh.

 

I'd price "none benched" as a strong odds on favourite, but agree Cyrus would be second favourite in that market. 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm less confident than you on Kincaid and Williams at this stage. And I liked both picks at the time. 

 

I'd price "none benched" as a strong odds on favourite, but agree Cyrus would be second favourite in that market. 

I like Williams as an effective solid starter. I think he’s gonna be in a good position to polish up his game after a year of tape and an offseason to adjust while also not being counted on to start right away with Milano in there right away.
 

Kincaid I think will have a nice bounce back if healthy. So I’m a bit higher on that 2023 class.

[Augie]

I just flipped across Cowherd and he had a list up with the best rosters in the league. The Bills were #4. You can argue about certain draft picks and FA signings, but we are consistently recognized as one of the top teams in the league, and it’s not “just Josh”. 

[RoscoeParrish]

8 minutes ago, Augie said:

I just flipped across Cowherd and he had a list up with the best rosters in the league. The Bills were #4. You can argue about certain draft picks and FA signings, but we are consistently recognized as one of the top teams in the league, and it’s not “just Josh”. 

It’s nice for the Bills to get shine but how many Bills do you think a joke like Cowherd can name off the top of his head?

[Augie]

Just now, RoscoeParrish said:

It’s nice for the Bills to get shine but how many Bills do you think a joke like Cowherd can name off the top of his head?

 

It wasn’t his list (I just caught a second of it, but ESPN may have been involved 🤢) but I think we are consistently recognized as one of the top teams in the league by objective sources. It’s not like the old days, when we really did suck. We are harder on our team, players and FO than I think most of the world is. 

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I like Williams as an effective solid starter. I think he’s gonna be in a good position to polish up his game after a year of tape and an offseason to adjust while also not being counted on to start right away with Milano in there right away.
 

Kincaid I think will have a nice bounce back if healthy. So I’m a bit higher on that 2023 class.

 

We will see on Williams. He was still struggling with the mental part of the game last year, even at the end of the season. I'm starting to worry he just won't ever get it. If he does he could be a beast. But I do wonder whether his processing skills will ever allow him to get there. 

 

On Kincaid I think he will be better than last year. Just see him as a complimentary piece not a feature peice and as a 1st rounder that is a tad disappointing.

[RoscoeParrish]

1 minute ago, Augie said:

 

It wasn’t his list (I just caught a second of it, but ESPN may have been involved 🤢) but I think we are consistently recognized as one of the top teams in the league by objective sources. It’s not like the old days, when we really did suck. We are harder on our team, players and FO than I think most of the world is. 

Meh, a lot of those same experts “recognized” the Bills were gonna take a significant step back last year and maybe even lose the division.

 

Outside of a few select folks, most of the media is complete superficial analysis.

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Meh, a lot of those same experts “recognized” the Bills were gonna take a significant step back last year and maybe even lose the division.

 

Outside of a few select folks, most of the media is complete superficial analysis.

 

Ok, we are mediocre at best. 

 

Thanks for clearing that up. 

[chris heff]

34 minutes ago, Augie said:

I just flipped across Cowherd and he had a list up with the best rosters in the league. The Bills were #4. You can argue about certain draft picks and FA signings, but we are consistently recognized as one of the top teams in the league, and it’s not “just Josh”. 

What three rosters were better? Just curious

[PromoTheRobot]

17 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Same thing we say every offseason about Beane's drafting - He's good at hitting singles and doubles, but hasnt hit many home runs. Really need a couple more home runs.

 

17 hours ago, SCBills said:

If Beane could land an elite guy once in a while, he’d be on the same level as Veach and Roseman. 
 

Because we, year in, year out, lack that guy(s) outside JA, he’s a tier below and it’s been a big reason we haven’t made a Super Bowl. 
 

Bad injury luck being the other primary reason.  
 

This hyped Draft Class, which is warranted, is a microcosm of the team around Allen.  Whiffed on the elite traits guy, but nailed 4 starters who are all very good, but not game changers. 
 

Beane is one of the best GM’s in the game. Hes just gotta find that one or two guys… Kincaid, Coleman, Hairston, Sanders.. someone to develop into a dude when it matters. 

 

Benford? Shakir? Milano?

[DrDawkinstein]

24 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

 

Benford? Shakir? Milano?

 

He didnt draft Milano, that was Whaley's crew. And given his injuries, and therefore lack of consistent contribution the last few seasons, it's tough to label him a home run.

 

Benford and Shakir are nice players, but despite what us homers think, neither are game-changing superstar home runs. Solid triples for sure. Maybe home runs if you consider Josh a grand slam...

 

The only other player close to it, the only other player he's drafted to receive All-Pro honors, has been Taron Johnson. But time may be catching up to Taron.

[GASabresIUFan]

24 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

 

Benford? Shakir? Milano?

I agree+, although he didn’t draft Milano.  Benford, Brown, and Cook are all HR picks.  Shakir is one 1000 yard season from going from a triple to a HR especially given where he was drafted.  
 

Every GM has duds, the question is how many good players does the draft produce and considering we have been in a playoff spot the last 6 years, the amount of talent Beane is finding every year is pretty amazing.  They had 20 players from the 5 draft from 2020 to 2024 on the roster including 10 starters most in key positions, including Cook, Benford, Bernard, Shakir, Brown, Torrence and Rousseau.  

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We will see on Williams. He was still struggling with the mental part of the game last year, even at the end of the season. I'm starting to worry he just won't ever get it. If he does he could be a beast. But I do wonder whether his processing skills will ever allow him to get there. 

 

On Kincaid I think he will be better than last year. Just see him as a complimentary piece not a feature peice and as a 1st rounder that is a tad disappointing.

All fair points. Williams I think he just needed experience and tape to work off of. He certainly got a lot of that last season and now he has a whole offseason to work on it and a full camp and preseason. And if he’s not ready Milano even though he’s more injury prone should hopefully give you 4-6 weeks at least before he gets hurt which is more practice time and an easier transition into a starting role than he had last season where Milano had gotten hurt early in camp.

 

I think he’s already a serviceable starter but I think he needs to take a step up and be more consistent which I think he can. Kincaid I think just needs to be healthy to really see what he can bring. If he’s just about what he was his rookie year he’s a top 10 TE in the league but not in the top 5 and that’s not great from a 1st rounder but not a bust either 

[RoscoeParrish]

12 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

All fair points. Williams I think he just needed experience and tape to work off of. He certainly got a lot of that last season and now he has a whole offseason to work on it and a full camp and preseason. And if he’s not ready Milano even though he’s more injury prone should hopefully give you 4-6 weeks at least before he gets hurt which is more practice time and an easier transition into a starting role than he had last season where Milano had gotten hurt early in camp.

 

I think he’s already a serviceable starter but I think he needs to take a step up and be more consistent which I think he can. Kincaid I think just needs to be healthy to really see what he can bring. If he’s just about what he was his rookie year he’s a top 10 TE in the league but not in the top 5 and that’s not great from a 1st rounder but not a bust either 

Dorian got 200+ snaps playing defense two years ago.

 

hes not going into year 2, he’s going into year 3. 
 

and just like year 1, he was spinning like a top out there on misdirections. He never saw a play fake that he didn’t want to bite on.

 

He is running out of “he needs to practice more” time.

27 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

He didnt draft Milano, that was Whaley's crew. And given his injuries, and therefore lack of consistent contribution the last few seasons, it's tough to label him a home run.

 

Benford and Shakir are nice players, but despite what us homers think, neither are game-changing superstar home runs. Solid triples for sure. Maybe home runs if you consider Josh a grand slam...

 

The only other player close to it, the only other player he's drafted to receive All-Pro honors, has been Taron Johnson. But time may be catching up to Taron.

Can’t agree with the Matt Milano take. Milano could never play another down and still be a HR pick (by McD, not Beane.)

 

a handful of seasons at all pro level at any position for a fifth round pick is a gigantic W,