Where does Khalil Shakir rank in terms of NFL WRs?

[warrior9]

4 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

The problem with this line of thinking is cause and effect.

 

The Pats ran their slot offense when their best weapon was a slot. They also ran a bombs away offense when they had Randy Moss. 
 

I love Shakir, but if we had JJ or Chase instead, I don’t think we are using him the same way exclusively.

So you mean like we did with Beasely when we had Diggs? 

 

We'd use him the exact same way we do now. We'd just also have another WR to throw to. 

[RoscoeParrish]

1 minute ago, warrior9 said:

So you mean like we did with Beasely when we had Diggs? 

 

We'd use him the exact same way we do now. We'd just also have another WR to throw to. 

That’s a great example.

 

We ran a completely different offense in 2020 than 2024, right?

 

We had an awesome boundary WR and awesome slot WR.

 

We ran a high-low offense, utilizing the best of both players.

 

But if you recall, Beasley never really challenged Diggs in target share or overall production.

 

Now, in 2024, without a Diggs on the boundary, we run a MUCH different offense, with far more emphasis on the slot.

 

In 2020, Beasley got 18% of the targets. In 2024, Shakir got 25% of the targets.

 

So like I said, if we had JJ, we wouldn’t be running Jefferson in the slot almost exclusively like we do with Shakir now. We would be using Shakir in the slot and Jefferson everywhere else.

 

The talent dictates the scheme.

[RoscoeParrish]

35 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Why do you keep trying to make this whole boundary vs slot receiver argument? What are you even talking about? It has absolutely nothing to do with what I'm talking about. I give up dude. You're right about whatever point it is you're trying to make.

I feel like I was pretty clear that the talent in NE dictated their scheme and offensive focus.

 

They famously were the greatest offense in the NFL when they had a great HoF boundary WR.

 

Then they famously ran twin TE sets more than any other team in the league when they had 2 great TEs. 
 

Then they famously ran an offensive that primarily featured a slot WR in Welker or Edelman when they had great slot WRs.

 

I disagree with your assessment that they “learned a lesson” about Randy Moss because they performed poorly in the Super Bowl that one time. They changed their offenses primarily based on the talent available, as teams with good coaching do.

 

It’s not a coincidence that KC went more horizontal after they lost Tyreek Hill. They weren’t gonna keep chucking deep bombs to Justin Watson. That doesn’t mean Tyreek wasn’t valuable to them or what they were doing.

[Billsfed1]

Not a stats guy in this evaluation, but purely going off the eye test his hands are elite…he’s fast enough when he needs to be and to me his ceiling is Wes Welker/Julian Edelman in their prime.

[NewEra]

He’s one of the best slot WRs in the game and amongst the elite RAC guys in the league.  He brings a unique toughness to the slot and is a threat to make a big play every time he touches the ball. 

 

It doesn’t matter where he’s ranked.

Edited July 18 by NewEra

[warrior9]

12 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

That’s a great example.

 

We ran a completely different offense in 2020 than 2024, right?

 

We had an awesome boundary WR and awesome slot WR.

 

We ran a high-low offense, utilizing the best of both players.

 

But if you recall, Beasley never really challenged Diggs in target share or overall production.

 

Now, in 2024, without a Diggs on the boundary, we run a MUCH different offense, with far more emphasis on the slot.

 

In 2020, Beasley got 18% of the targets. In 2024, Shakir got 25% of the targets.

 

So like I said, if we had JJ, we wouldn’t be running Jefferson in the slot almost exclusively like we do with Shakir now. We would be using Shakir in the slot and Jefferson everywhere else.

 

The talent dictates the scheme.

Well, yeah we ran a different offense, we had different pieces. My point is, you adjust based on talent. Of course JJ wouldn't be in the slot?? No one said that. I'm saying that IF we had JJ, our use of Shakir wouldn't change. 

 

You are literally proving my point when you say "talent dictates scheme." JJ would open a lot more for Shakir in the same way Diggs did for Beasely. Just because target share goes down doesn't mean he'll be used differently. They literally had the same amount of targets (Beasely actually had more). We didn't have the run game in 2020. I'm still not sure your point because you're kind of going in circles. 

[RoscoeParrish]

14 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Well, yeah we ran a different offense, we had different pieces. My point is, you adjust based on talent. Of course JJ wouldn't be in the slot?? No one said that. I'm saying that IF we had JJ, our use of Shakir wouldn't change. 

 

You are literally proving my point when you say "talent dictates scheme." JJ would open a lot more for Shakir in the same way Diggs did for Beasely. Just because target share goes down doesn't mean he'll be used differently. They literally had the same amount of targets (Beasely actually had more). We didn't have the run game in 2020. I'm still not sure your point because you're kind of going in circles. 

I said JJ wouldn’t be used in the slot like Shakir is now. You are agreeing with me.

 

we would run a completely different offense if we had Justin Jefferson instead of Shakir.

Edited July 18 by RoscoeParrish

[frostbitmic]

He's our #1 and seems to have a great connection with Josh, that's all that really matters.

[warrior9]

1 hour ago, RoscoeParrish said:

I said JJ wouldn’t be used in the slot like Shakir is now. You are agreeing with me.

 

we would run a completely different offense if we had Justin Jefferson instead of Shakir.

What in the world are you talking about? 

 

You initially said if we had JJ or Chase we wouldn't use Shakir in the same way. YES WE WOULD. He would just have another target. Similar to when we had Beasely and Diggs. Beasely and Diggs both had career years here.. in the same year. Your point is really hard to follow.

Why on earth would anyone put JJ in the slot when you have a Shakir? I have no idea why you even said that as it has nothing to do with your initial point. 

 

Again, you are talking in absolute circles.

Edited July 18 by warrior9

[SoonerBillsFan]

I think he is a top 2-3 Slot WR.

[RoscoeParrish]

15 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

What in the world are you talking about? 

 

You initially said if we had JJ or Chase we wouldn't use Shakir in the same way. YES WE WOULD. He would just have another target. Similar to when we had Beasely and Diggs. Beasely and Diggs both had career years here.. in the same year. Your point is really hard to follow.

Why on earth would anyone put JJ in the slot when you have a Shakir? I have no idea why you even said that as it has nothing to do with your initial point. 

 

Again, you are talking in absolute circles.

 

18 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

The problem with this line of thinking is cause and effect.

 

The Pats ran their slot offense when their best weapon was a slot. They also ran a bombs away offense when they had Randy Moss. 
 

I love Shakir, but if we had JJ or Chase instead, I don’t think we are using him the same way exclusively.

First of all, why so hostile? Sheesh.

 

second of all, the bolded him here in the post you responded to was referring to JJ or Chase.

 

If we had JJ or Chase, instead of Shakir, we wouldn’t be using them in the same way as Shakir. We would run a different offense.

 

There’s really no reason to get so angry.

Edited July 18 by RoscoeParrish

[ganesh]

20 hours ago, LEBills said:

Yea he was 39th in the NFL of WRs for yards per game last year and 58th for touchdowns. A good player and is valuable to us, but in a vacuum he would be ranked in the 30s around those players you mentioned.

He is our Hines Ward...

[Billl]

18 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Not saying he would be a target monster, saying he would see an increase in targets on a team who spreads the ball less and runs less than we do.  He got 100 targets here because is a good player, and with the injury and his pace was 110 targets had he played all 17.  Even just 1 more target per game puts him at 127 targets eslewhere in an offense spreading the ball less between targets and running.  I think its more than reasonable he could and would see an increase of 1 more target per game in another offense.  

 

His pace was 110 targets here - with 1 more per game elsewhere that takes him to 127 targets, which based on his 8.21 yards per target last year, that puts him at 1050 yards on its own.  Now factor in how often we ran short routes/screens for hm just to use his RAC ability...if just a handful of those targets move to be 5-10 yards down field he could easily be looking at 1100 - 1200 range on those 127 targets.

 

So people are underestimating what he would be on another team with literally just 1 more target per game in a less spread the ball offense.  

The problem is that you can’t simply extrapolate stats as target share increases.  Shakir’s 2024 season compared to 2023 is a prime example of that.  Shakir had 120% more targets in 2024 but only 34% more yards.  His catch rate dropped by 12%, and his yards per target dropped by 40%.  Adding 15% more targets, as you suggest, would only further degrade his efficiency.  

 

Shakir is best suited for what he was in 2023, a guy who works within 5 yards of the LOS, primarily between the 20s.  When the field shrinks and defenders play closer to the LOS, so does his usefulness (as evidenced by the fact that he has 7 career TDs).  He’s a bit of a niche player.  He’s fantastic at that niche, but it’s unlikely that he’ll ever become a guy who stretches the field, makes contested catches, or pressures defenses in the red zone.  That’s why they drafted Coleman and traded for Cooper last year.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, Billl said:

The problem is that you can’t simply extrapolate stats as target share increases.  Shakir’s 2024 season compared to 2023 is a prime example of that.  Shakir had 120% more targets in 2024 but only 34% more yards.  His catch rate dropped by 12%, and his yards per target dropped by 40%.  Adding 15% more targets, as you suggest, would only further degrade his efficiency.  

 

Shakir is best suited for what he was in 2023, a guy who works within 5 yards of the LOS, primarily between the 20s.  When the field shrinks and defenders play closer to the LOS, so does his usefulness (as evidenced by the fact that he has 7 career TDs).  He’s a bit of a niche player.  He’s fantastic at that niche, but it’s unlikely that he’ll ever become a guy who stretches the field, makes contested catches, or pressures defenses in the red zone.  That’s why they drafted Coleman and traded for Cooper last year.

 

I agree and yet disagree at the same time.  I agree that in a smaller sample size like 2023 the stats are expected to level off on higher volume.  But I disagree that there isn't a floor for that.  In other words, what you are implying is that theortecially with enough targets his average yards per catch could drop to 1% and his catch rate drop to 1% on a long enough timeline of target counts.  You are stating that it will continue to drop at the same rate regardless of his abilities as a player, but as a direct function of targets, that by default every single extra target further degrades efficiency.  

 

Shakirs target share was large enough in 2024 to establish that is probably his floor.  So I do not agree that his efficiency just perpetually degrades with each target above 100.  In fact, his efficiency on things like yards per catch were also hit not because he was less effective (look at his YAC stats), but because Brady ran a ton of screens and passes at the LOS in 2024 compared to 2023 to take advantage of his YAC abilities.  So it wasn't a lack of ability that lowered his YPC in 2024, it was the style we used him based on the design of the plays, makeup of the offense, etc.  

 

And while I expect them to still incorporate a lot of that into the offense as he is very dangerous with the football in his hands, there is no reason to suddenly expect his YPC and stuff to just continually decline, that isnt how it works.  In fact, its almost a certainty in another style of offense it goes back up because he has concretely proved he is excellent after the catch, so if he gets more of those LOS passes 5-10 yards past the LOS instead, its going to make a relevant increase in his YPC.

 

So yeah, I don't agree with this premise it will keep getting worse because that just isn't how it works.  

[RoscoeParrish]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Shakirs target share was large enough in 2024 to establish that is probably his floor.  So I do not agree that his efficiency just perpetually degrades with each target above 100.  In fact, his efficiency on things like yards per catch were also hit not because he was less effective (look at his YAC stats), but because Brady ran a ton of screens and passes at the LOS in 2024 compared to 2023 to take advantage of his YAC abilities.  So it wasn't a lack of ability that lowered his YPC in 2024, it was the style we used him based on the design of the plays, makeup of the offense, etc.

This is the definition of manufacturing touches though. That’s how you get him to 76 balls in a season. You have to get creative with how to use him.

 

You can’t say, “we will take 2023 Shakir and only use the 2023 Shakir plays and just call them 55 more times.”

 

You see this a lot with guys like him.

 

Curtis Samuel, who isn’t the caliber of player as Shakir, had his ADOT and his touches change dramatically in Carolina with Brady.

 

Samuel had 105 targets with 54 catches in 2019. An ADOT of 14.6.

 

In 2020, Brady took over and changed his role entirely. He saw his ADOT drop in half. Got a similar amount of targets and ended up with a career year in catches, yards, YAC, etc etc.  

 

I think the moral of the story is if you want 2023 elite efficiency Shakir, you have to use him in 2023 ways at lower volume. And as awesome as his efficiency stats were, his totals will suffer used sporadically. He’s more value to these Bills at higher volume with lower efficiency. But I don’t think he’s ever gonna combine 2024 volume with 2023 efficiency.

 

And if his volume continues to increase, which imo means MORE balls behind the LoS and more short stuff, his efficiency will imo continue to drop. Maybe not as much of a drop as 2024 because there is an obvious floor.

 

Julian Edelman’s yards per touch his 4 most targeted seasons were all below his career averages. Not dramatically so, but that’s what they were.

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

This is the definition of manufacturing touches though. That’s how you get him to 76 balls in a season. You have to get creative with how to use him.

 

You can’t say, “we will take 2023 Shakir and only use the 2023 Shakir plays and just call them 55 more times.”

 

You see this a lot with guys like him.

 

Curtis Samuel, who isn’t the caliber of player as Shakir, had his ADOT and his touches change dramatically in Carolina with Brady.

 

Samuel had 105 targets with 54 catches in 2019. An ADOT of 14.6.

 

In 2020, Brady took over and changed his role entirely. He saw his ADOT drop in half. Got a similar amount of targets and ended up with a career year in catches, yards, YAC, etc etc.  

 

I think the moral of the story is if you want 2023 elite efficiency Shakir, you have to use him in 2023 ways at lower volume. And as awesome as his efficiency stats were, his totals will suffer used sporadically. He’s more value to these Bills at higher volume with lower efficiency. But I don’t think he’s ever gonna combine 2024 volume with 2023 efficiency.

 

And if his volume continues to increase, which imo means MORE balls behind the LoS and more short stuff, his efficiency will imo continue to drop. Maybe not as much of a drop as 2024 because there is an obvious floor.

 

Julian Edelman’s yards per touch his 4 most targeted seasons were all below his career averages. Not dramatically so, but that’s what they were.

 

But I didn't advocate or use his efficiency in 2023.  I said his 2024 season is probably his floor.  The suggestion by the other poster that it continually drops without some sort of base floor where ability, talent, etc mean nothing is not reality.  

 

So again, to suggest his efficiency is even worse slightly expanding his existing role off a large sample size of 100 targets in 2024, which already establishing a more than reasonable expectation of production, is just not realistic.  

[RoscoeParrish]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

But I didn't advocate or use his efficiency in 2023.  I said his 2024 season is probably his floor.  The suggestion by the other poster that it continually drops without some sort of base floor where ability, talent, etc mean nothing is not reality.  

 

So again, to suggest his efficiency is even worse slightly expanding his existing role off a large sample size of 100 targets in 2024, which already establishing a more than reasonable expectation of production, is just not realistic.  

Sorry maybe I misunderstood.

 

2024 is his floor in what? Efficiency on higher volume?

 

I don’t agree. I think if we tried to give him an extra 50 targets a year, which by definition would include tons of bubble screens and other manufactured targets etc, his efficiency would continue to decline. Would it get below 7 yards per target? Probably not because he’s still a good player.

 

130-150 targets in a season for Shakir to clear 1000 yards feels right.

Edited July 18 by RoscoeParrish

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I think he is a top 2-3 Slot WR.

How so? He’s certainly behind St. Brown, Ladd, Godwin, JSN, probably Jayden Reed. That’s just guys off the top of my head. If you count guys that split time like Ceedee Lamb, Zay Flowers, Chase, Garrett Wilson, he falls more. 

Edited July 18 by Kirby Jackson

[Alphadawg7]

10 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Sorry maybe I misunderstood.

 

2024 is his floor in what? Efficiency on higher volume?

 

I don’t agree. I think if we tried to give him an extra 50 targets a year, which by definition would include tons of bubble screens and other manufactured targets etc, his efficiency would continue to decline. Would it get below 7 yards per target? Probably not because he’s still a good player.

 

130-150 targets in a season for Shakir to clear 1000 yards feels right.

 

No worries.  But there is no reason to assume the additional targets would all be more bubble screens.  He has 100 targets, that is a large baseline, that includes a balance of types of passes and routes he runs.  You can't now say to get more targets it only has to be more bubble screens.  

 

And again, that is exclusively tied to our offense as well and the type of plays we run for him.  But a lot of you talk about him like he is really only capable of one type of play at high volume in the bubble screens, yet he has 2 years of showing he can make plays, and hes made a lot of them, all over the field, not just bubble screens.  He has elite YAC ability, so Brady designed some quick strike plays to use that, but you and others now seem to hold that against him as if that is his only primary use, which it wasnt.  

 

And keep in mind, that he was also the best WR on the team last year, so he was doing this without some bigger threats around him, especially with Keon getting hurt, Kincaid being hurt, and Cooper doing almost nothing.  Playing along side another WR and more opens up for him - and in 2023, with Diggs, Davis, and our first round pick Kincaid it was Shakir who led the team in yards receiving after Brady took over showing how much more effective he can be with some other attention around him and not having to rely on just bubble screens.  

 

Now keeping up the 2023 efficiency was not realistic, thanks to how elite it was combined with sample size.  BUT - It is MORE than fair to assume his true efficiency most likely lies somewhere between 2023 and 2024 where a lot more short throws were brought in as a weapon and helped bring some of the YPC down but still had strong YAC numbers showing his abilities.  But I didn't even do that - I still used his floor of 2024 only.

 

So again, this notion his efficiency would keep tanking further with each additional target after a large sample size is just not realistic and IMO is short changing his talent and ability

Edited July 18 by Alphadawg7

[NoSaint]

Once you get out of the top ten or so superstars that just win at everything, it starts to turn into scheme fits creating tiers/ledges

 

id say he is in that 30-40 ledge, where he generally starts everywhere, rarely is a clear WR1, and value could vary depending on his fit. 

Edited July 18 by NoSaint