Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I just don't think it's an either/or proposition.

 

Yes, imo, the defense has been crappier overall in the postseason if I had to assign a blame pie. 

 

I think a lot of folks like @Alphadawg7 and @NewEra and @MasterStrategist see that as there's more room for improvement/impact if we add a star there. I think that's a reasonable take.

 

The problem is I have next to zero confidence that we would see that significant impact due to the apparent coaching mismatch. 

 

Do I think adding a Myles Garrett may help us make an extra play or two to beat the Chiefs?  Yes, I do.

 

Do I think adding a Myles Garrett is going to help us put up a 2020 Bucs or 2024 Eagles defensive performance against the Chiefs? I really do not.

 

So when it comes to beating the Chiefs (and beyond because that's not going to be the Superbowl), I don't really a vast distinction between adding an elite defensive player vs an elite offensive player. In fact, I think it's a reasonable take that adding a player who can catch 10+ balls from Josh Allen against the Chiefs will have more impact than a player coached by McD and schemed against by Reid to make an impact. 

 

And to bring it back to Keon Coleman. I hated the pick, because I didn't see the vision of the ceiling. I'm not convinced he is going to be anything more than a Mike Williams type player. Now, Mike Williams was a fine player, but a player like that is never the "answer" at WR. 

 

Ultimately, Keon's stretch of good play mid-season last year made me feel much BETTER about him. If he can be that player more consistently, I will feel much better about the offensive side overall. 

Good post and agree with most of this 

[HappyDays]

17 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Those WR's could have been Jerry Rice and Randy Moss, it makes no difference to the play because Allen didn't have the ability to throw to any of the WR's we had, who again were open. 

 

A better WR gets the 1st on the quick screen we threw on the previous play. Instead the older WR we were forced to desperately trade for slipped and got shoestring tackled which led to the 4th down attempt. Two plays where Allen gave his pass catcher the best chance they were going to get and both times they let him down. His legacy is being defined by the failures of those around him.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

I just don't think it's an either/or proposition.

 

Yes, imo, the defense has been crappier overall in the postseason if I had to assign a blame pie. 

 

I think a lot of folks like @Alphadawg7 and @NewEra and @MasterStrategist see that as there's more room for improvement/impact if we add a star there. I think that's a reasonable take.

 

The problem is I have next to zero confidence that we would see that significant impact due to the apparent coaching mismatch. 

 

Do I think adding a Myles Garrett may help us make an extra play or two to beat the Chiefs?  Yes, I do.

 

Do I think adding a Myles Garrett is going to help us put up a 2020 Bucs or 2024 Eagles defensive performance against the Chiefs? I really do not.

 

So when it comes to beating the Chiefs (and beyond because that's not going to be the Superbowl), I don't really a vast distinction between adding an elite defensive player vs an elite offensive player. In fact, I think it's a reasonable take that adding a player who can catch 10+ balls from Josh Allen against the Chiefs will have more impact than a player coached by McD and schemed against by Reid to make an impact. 

 

And to bring it back to Keon Coleman. I hated the pick, because I didn't see the vision of the ceiling. I'm not convinced he is going to be anything more than a Mike Williams type player. Now, Mike Williams was a fine player, but a player like that is never the "answer" at WR. 

 

Ultimately, Keon's stretch of good play mid-season last year made me feel much BETTER about him. If he can be that player more consistently, I will feel much better about the offensive side overall. 

 

No I don't think it is an either / or proposition either. I wasn't meaning to suggest that. It is just about finding more guys to make those difference making plays.

[Alphadawg7]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

A better WR gets the 1st on the quick screen we threw on the previous play. Instead the older WR we were forced to desperately trade for slipped and got shoestring tackled which led to the 4th down attempt. Two plays where Allen gave his pass catcher the best chance they were going to get and both times they let him down. His legacy is being defined by the failures of those around him.

 

Disagree, this idea that without the slip on 3rd and 10 its a sure first down is honestly exaggerated.  Yet you also seem to just gloss over the first 2 plays, including 2nd down where Allen has his pass knocked down to a wide open Samuel otherwise we would have already made the first down.  On the 4th down, Shakir was wide open for a first and more off the snap and another WR was running open across the middle to the left too.  

 

And where I said the play outcome doesn't change was the 4th down play where we had wide open WR's for an easy first that we could not even attempt to get the ball to because Allen was under duress falling back to his right and forced to throw a prayer ball to a TE instead of the open WR's for an easy first.

 

Who the WR's were were not why we didn't convert a first down on that final series.

Edited 2 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

38 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

But the problem is...Josh had multiple WR's wide open that last series, including the 4th down play...and also Kincaid at TE. The route Allen threw too though was the TE, so who the other WR's were on the field on that play are totally irrelevant because the pass still went to the TE even though there were WR's wide open we did have were open, including off the snap. 

 

Those WR's could have been Jerry Rice and Randy Moss, it makes no difference to the play because Allen didn't have the ability to throw to any of the WR's we had, who again were open.  Because we cheated the protection to the wrong direction, Allen had to bail to his right immediately off the snap and heave a prayer ball to the only guy he could which was a TE running wide open down field.  Unfortunately, Kincaid didn't make the play...but unless you are advocating to draft a better TE, then who the WR's were on this play do not change the outcome of this play.

 

No one is arguing against having a better WR for Allen...but, this false narrative that our WR's are why the Shakir TD attempt failed in 2023 or why we didn't convert a first on our final series in 2024 isn't accurate to those respective plays.  

 

If someone wants to make a case an upgrade in the WR room helps Josh score more points in a game we lost by 3, then fair case to present.  But the WR's are not the reason we didn't convert these plays, they were wide open in each instance and things that happened on the OL or with Allen (including getting his pass batted at LOS) are why we didn't convert.  We failed to get the ball to the wide open guys on the field to even give the WR's to make the play.  WRs can’t catch balls not thrown to them, dont reach them, or that get deflected at the LOS.
 

 

Come on...lol...we gave them the ball back while we were still losing the game with them needing 1 first down to end it

 

I am arguing if you have more guys to make plays in those end of game situations the tariff of the plays you need Josh to make comes down slightly. It isn't about whether Josh did or didn't make mistakes on the two game enders (and I happen to think he did make errors on both, not massive errors, slight errors) it is about their general ability on those drives to make the plays they needed to make. And when you can't win down the field outside it really has the effect of reducing the play calls available and the yards of the field available to use. And that increases the tariff of difficulty for the Quarterback. 

 

Edit: accidental double post

Edited 2 hours ago by GunnerBill

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am arguing if you have more guys to make plays in those end of game situations the tariff of the plays you need Josh to make comes down slightly. It isn't about whether Josh did or didn't make mistakes on the two game enders (and I happen to think he did make errors on both, not massive errors, slight errors) it is about their general ability on those drives to make the plays they needed to make. And when you can't win down the field outside it really has the effect of reducing the play calls available and the yards of the field available to use. And that increases the tariff of difficulty for the Quarterback. 

 

Honestly, I agree with this, its clear as day we needed to improve on the outside, I am not in disagreement on that.  My push back in general to the conversation around "blame" in 2023 and 2024 in terms of the ends of those games, blaming the WR's is lazy and inaccurate IMHO in those specific instances because both in 2023 and 2024 we had WR's get wide open and we failed in execution and did not even get them the ball. 

 

Making a case that more help on the outside at WR maybe leads to more points throughout a game is a fair and reasonable discussion.  But too many times on this board, WR's are specifically and incorrectly getting blamed for failures on exact plays/series where it was not the WR's on the field, it was breakdowns elsewhere that led to the failures of those plays in both 2023 and 2024.

 

 

 

[FireChans]

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No I don't think it is an either / or proposition either. I wasn't meaning to suggest that. It is just about finding more guys to make those difference making plays.

didn't mean to imply that, was just musing. 

[HappyDays]

28 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Yet you seem to just gloss over that on 2nd down Allen has his pass knocked down to a wide open Samuel otherwise we would have already made the first down.

 

That play was the result of Cook getting blown up in pass protection forcing Allen to throw the ball earlier than he wanted. That one isn't on any pass catcher. But on the next two plays opportunities were there and our pass catchers failed to make them, that's the reality.

 

That 2nd down play is why I don't join in with the chorus of complaints that we didn't use Cook enough on that drive. I think in a do or die drive to win the game you are going to have to rely on your pass game... Cook if anything was a detriment in that scenario so I understood taking him off the field. We needed Cooper or Kincaid to make the plays that were in their hands. But because they didn't, we have to listen to a lot of people including many Bills fans say that Allen didn't get the job done. It frustrates me to no end.

 

28 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

On the 4th down, Shakir was wide open for a first and more off the snap

 

Yeah I just don't agree with that. He was going to catch the ball several yards behind the LoS and KC had second level defenders in position to come down and make the tackle.

 

I don't know why there is so much over analysis of that 4th down play. To me it's very simple - the best DC in the game called a 100% unpredictable blitz that would have automatically beaten any QB other than Allen, Mahomes, or Jackson. Allen made a miracle happen finding Kincaid and getting the pass off. Kincaid then performed the equivalent of a muffed punt and that was that. None of the other analysis would have ever happened if Kincaid had just done his job... And no one would be saying "wow what a catch!" they'd be saying "wow what a throw!" Allen did the hard part, Kincaid failed the easy part.

 

28 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Disagree, this idea that without the slip on 3rd and 10 its a sure first down is honestly exaggerated.

 

Man I don't know how you could say that. Cooper has wide open space in front of him... Honestly he might have picked up 20 yards on that play. The only reason Karlaftis was able to shoestring tackle him was because he slipped.

 

Edited 2 hours ago by HappyDays

[Alphadawg7]

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That play was the result of Cook getting blown up in pass protection forcing Allen to throw the ball earlier than he wanted. That one isn't on any pass catcher. But on the next two plays opportunities were there and our pass catchers failed to make them, that's the reality.

 

No disrespect, but now you are blurring the lines here...you are now moving the goal posts from "WR's" to "Pass Catches" because the 4th down play was to a TE when the WR's were wide open.  

 

And sorry, I do not at all think Cooper makes it 10 yards for the first down without the subtle slip, there were defenders all around him.  And more importantly, the slip is a slip...its not skill related, that could have happened to any WR in the game.  Saying if we had a better WR there, then the slip doesn't happen, and we for sure get a first is just not a logical conclusion.  

 

Also - why are we throwing the screen to Cooper instead of Shakir, Ty, or Samuel who are much better and effective on a screen than the Ghost of Cooper anyway? 

 

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That 2nd down play is why I don't join in with the chorus of complaints that we didn't use Cook enough on that drive. I think in a do or die drive to win the game you are going to have to rely on your pass game... Cook if anything was a detriment in that scenario so I understood taking him off the field. We needed Cooper or Kincaid to make the plays that were in their hands. But because they didn't, we have to listen to a lot of people including many Bills fans say that Allen didn't get the job done. It frustrates me to no end.

 

I am not one that was upset Cook was off the field in passing situations, Ty is a better receiver and pass blocker, so I agree with you.  Now, if one wants to make a case we didn't need to keep throwing and should have tried to mix a run in with Cook, well that is a fair discussion.  But when passing, I get why they went with Ty over Cook.  

 

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

Yeah I just don't agree with that. He was going to catch the ball several yards behind the LoS and KC had second level defenders in position to come down and make the tackle.

 

Not if you watch the replay from the top down angle, he had plenty of room to make the play, and quite frankly Shakir is excellent at RAC with ball in his hands and has broken big runs off in tighter situations.  If Allen gets him the ball in stride its an easy first and likely a big gain.  And Allen also had another WR in Coleman or Samuel running wide open over the middle to the left for also a first down as they were already past the marker.  Cooper was even somewhat open.  

 

The point is simple...the WR personnel is not at all why that play didn't work...yet I have seen people repeatedly blame the "WR's" specifically.  

 

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know why there is so much over analysis of that 4th down play. To me it's very simple - the best DC in the game called a 100% unpredictable blitz that would have automatically beaten any QB other than Allen, Mahomes, or Jackson. Allen made a miracle happen finding Kincaid and getting the pass off. Kincaid then performed the equivalent of a muffed punt and that was that. None of the other analysis would have ever happened if Kincaid had just done his job... And no one would be saying "wow what a catch!" they'd be saying "wow what a throw!" Allen did the hard part, Kincaid failed the easy part.

 

Exactly...I agree...yet all offseason this board has been beating a dead horse associating the full blame on this final series specifically to the WR room, which is not at all accurate on this series.  What I and others are pushing back is the incorrect specific blame on the WR personnel on this final series we have had thrown around since the game ended.

 

We had breakdowns elsewhere is the point, it wasn't who the WR's names were on the field, they were open on multiple plays and we just didn't get them the ball.  

Edited 2 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[BADOLBILZ]

On 6/7/2025 at 2:26 PM, MasterStrategist said:

When the defense gives up 30+, isnt it common sense that we need to outscore opponent to win?

 

You have some weird twisted logic.

 

Bottom line, we have a good enough offense to win- if Josh plays within himself.  Too many missed chances in the '24 Chiefs game, at crucial moments.  Not for a lack of playmakers, but not executing and some questionable playcalling at times.

 

OTOH, the defense doesnt have a Josh Allen.  So we end up giving up massive points, to a middling Chiefs offense in 2024/2023, and had no answers for Burrow in 2022.  

 

Not sure what football game youre watching.  Stats are stats, useful as I should know in a profession full of them. But also, the knowledge of football and knowing our team cant do a lick of anything to get off the field on 3rd downs. 

 

We take major luck/breaks to keep with elite offenses.  Im not counting on the Hardmans of the world to fumble at the 1.  Or Mark Andrew's to cough it up and drop a key 2 point play.  Our defense has been lucky at many moments.

 

We need more talent on that side, obviously Beane agrees with certai posters here.  Beane also missed on several high defensive picks and DL FAs. which got us into this problem.

 

We cant have every position be an all pro.  We had the QB/Wr elite combo- how'd that work out?  Missed on OL, DL then.  Now we have the OL in a good spot and need a very good DL to compete--- this is a Coleman thread after all, hes going to be alot better in Year 2 from what I've seen in. person.

 

 

 

 

You are LITERALLY using fake numbers to create a numbers argument that is really just a bunch of "feels".

 

The defense hasn't given up 30+ points in these divisional and AFCCG games.

 

Use REAL numbers.

 

In these 7 matchups against the other AFC SB contenders the Bills offense has scored just under 23 and the Bills defense has allowed just under 28.......and the defense has scored a TD of their own.

 

Both of those scoring numbers are about a TD away from their regular season numbers.

 

The bottom line is NOT just that the offense is good enough to win as you vaguely declare.

 

That's simpleton's logic.

 

The bottom line is that both sides have underachieved similarly overall and they haven't made the plays in the clutch on either side when those plays would ultimately decide the close games. 

 

 

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

No disrespect, but now you are blurring the lines here...you are now moving the goal posts from "WR's" to "Pass Catches" because the 4th down play was to a TE when the WR's were wide open. 

 

That's because Kincaid basically is a WR in this offense. Beane himself has made that clear. Every time someone in the media brings up WRs he says "well don't forget about our TEs." And yes any NFL pass catcher HAS to make that catch in that moment. Especially one we spent a 1st round pick on.

 

I'll be honest Alpha, I am sick of this whole conversation. Everyone has had their say, no one is going to change their mind. Now we just have to wait and see. Beane and McDermott have planted their flag that the offensive talent is good enough and based on the investments they made this offseason the 2025 Bills really should be led by the defense first... Through their offseason strategy they are telling us they want a team like what KC had last year, a team that went 15-1 scoring 24 PPG. If things go according to plan we shouldn't need to put up 30+ points and score a TD with seconds remaining to beat KC in the playoffs, which is what was needed in each of our last two playoff defeats. If that exact outcome happens again this year I'll consider our entire offseason strategy to be a failure and I will again bang the drum to go all in on investing in the offense so we have the best chance of winning in that scenario.

[Process]

37 pages on a graphic with some red and green arrows is impressive.

 

Keon was a solid player for us pre injury. He completely disappeared at the end of the year, but hopefully he gets back to early 2024 form now that he is healthy, and continues to develop. 

[NewEra]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That's because Kincaid basically is a WR in this offense. Beane himself has made that clear. Every time someone in the media brings up WRs he says "well don't forget about our TEs." And yes any NFL pass catcher HAS to make that catch in that moment. Especially one we spent a 1st round pick on.

 

I'll be honest Alpha, I am sick of this whole conversation. Everyone has had their say, no one is going to change their mind. Now we just have to wait and see. Beane and McDermott have planted their flag that the offensive talent is good enough and based on the investments they made this offseason the 2025 Bills really should be led by the defense first... Through their offseason strategy they are telling us they want a team like what KC had last year, a team that went 15-1 scoring 24 PPG. If things go according to plan we shouldn't need to put up 30+ points and score a TD with seconds remaining to beat KC in the playoffs, which is what was needed in each of our last two playoff defeats. If that exact outcome happens again this year I'll consider our entire offseason strategy to be a failure and I will again bang the drum to go all in on investing in the offense so we have the best chance of winning in that scenario.

Extreme exaggeration.  We haven’t averaged under 26.5 ppg since Josh’s evolution.  We averaged 30.9 last season.  You think that McB is counting on us averaging almost a TD less per game (24ppg) after losing your boy Mack and a 50% snap count cooper (while adding Palmer and Moore)?  The math doesn’t add up.

 

i think they thought the D was our biggest issue (more specially DL and CB) and they addressed it in the draft and FA…. While keeping our QB, RB, OL, TE intact while swapping out 2 WRs for 2 WRs.  Also counting on Keon and Kincaid improving on last season

Edited 1 hour ago by NewEra

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That's because Kincaid basically is a WR in this offense. Beane himself has made that clear. Every time someone in the media brings up WRs he says "well don't forget about our TEs." And yes any NFL pass catcher HAS to make that catch in that moment. Especially one we spent a 1st round pick on.

 

I agree, but that isn't what we have gotten 100 threads on all offseason, its been specifically on the WR room, specifically blaming WR's for the 2023 and 2024 endings when it was not at all related to the WR's those final 2 series.  

 

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'll be honest Alpha, I am sick of this whole conversation. Everyone has had their say, no one is going to change their mind. Now we just have to wait and see. Beane and McDermott have planted their flag that the offensive talent is good enough and based on the investments they made this offseason the 2025 Bills really should be led by the defense first... Through their offseason strategy they are telling us they want a team like what KC had last year, a team that went 15-1 scoring 24 PPG. If things go according to plan we shouldn't need to put up 30+ points and score a TD with seconds remaining to beat KC in the playoffs, which is what was needed in each of our last two playoff defeats. If that exact outcome happens again this year I'll consider our entire offseason strategy to be a failure and I will again bang the drum to go all in on investing in the offense so we have the best chance of winning in that scenario.

 

One thing for sure, I agree, I am over it too, the conversation in general has been beaten to death.  

 

But...the bolded here..no disrespect, but this is just a silly statement that is a reflection of your personal disappointment and in no way what so ever an accurate reflection of how Beane, the team, the coaches think and feel about the offense.  We just averaged over 30 in the reg season and 29 in the post season and they feel the offense has the potential to be as good or better between the moves they made and the expectations they have of Kincaid and Coleman to better too this year between being healthy and more experienced.  

 

Whether they are right or not will be proven on the field of course, but to suggest they "want" a lower scoring middling offense like KC is just a wild thing to say and just isn't at all true.   

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You think that McB is counting on us averaging almost a TD less per game (24ppg) after losing your boy Mack and a 50% snap count cooper (while adding Palmer and Moore)?  The math doesn’t add up.

 

No I'm just saying we should be led by our defense more this season. The way that KC has been for a couple years now. I mean just about every major investment we made this offseason was on the defense... As you know that would not have been my strategy, but I get it. So now that strategy has to lead to a different result. The 3rd down defense has to be much better and we can't watch KC do their annual playoff thing against us where they move up and down the field at will.

 

I'm not actually asking us to go 15-1 scoring 24 PPG, I am more realistic than that. But I think everybody should agree that if the defense lives up to the investments, the inevitable KC playoff matchup shouldn't come down to our offense having to score 30+ and score the last TD with seconds remaining. Because if that scenario happens for a third consecutive year, then what was the point of investing so much in the defense? In that scenario the only question that will matter is if one of our skill players made a clutch play to close out the win.

 

Edited 54 minutes ago by HappyDays