Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

What in the world!? You wanted Allen to slide protection against a 4 man rush and a uniform defensive front with a blitzer threatening on the opposite side!? And you wanted Allen to step up into the pocket, which would have hastened him being hit by Jones? QB's step up in the pocket to avoid pass rushers coming on the backside. Not pass rushers bull rushing. If Allen steps up, Jones swims inside and blasts Allen into the turf

There is one person to blame on that play and his name rhymes with Peion Pawkins. Maybe an honorable mention to Shakir route running taking a tad longer than it should have.

 

You clearly did not watch the clip I just posted.  If you don't think Allen has opportunity to get a clean pass off he sees/feels how deep the pressure is from Dion then I don't know what to tell you.  Allen had a ton of space to make a cleaner throw or buy time to find a different throw rather than stand there immobile and get stepped on.  It's on both Dion and Allen.

 

And once again, Shakir is running free in full sprint PRIOR to Allens throw.  Nothing about what Shakir did prior to Allen making the pass slowed Allens throw down.  If you simply watch the clips you can see this clear as day.  

 

Dion lost his rep...Allen stood still in the pocket...and the result was getting stepped on and short arming a game winning TD pass to a wide open WR in the endzone.  

 

 

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You clearly did not watch the clip I just posted. 

 

Only about 50 times since it has happened form every angle available.
 

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Allen had a ton of space to make a cleaner throw or buy time to find a different throw rather than stand there immobile and get stepped on. 

 

Now you're moving the goalposts into an entirely different argument. Another losing one mind you, but the more popular one of "he should have thrown to Diggs".

Allen 1000% made the right decision to throw to Shakir. He knew Shakir would be open for the TD and he went for it.  He made the right decision and threw the right pass. You never pass up a TD because you don't know what will happen the next play or any play after that. Fumbles, flukes, etc. You take the TD.
 

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

It's on both Dion and Allen.

No it was 100% on Dion. Allen holds zero blame. 

Your original suggestion of Allen moving up into the pocket would have led to a guaranteed sack and is something you *never* do against a bull-rush. And shifting the line against a 4 man uniform front with a defender motioning a potential blitz on the opposite makes me question your understanding of the game.

[MasterStrategist]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Do you actually think your vague, barstool logic works?

 

The "main reason" the Bills season has ended without a Lombardi is LITERALLY because they haven't even reached one.   It's not mainly the offense or defense.  

 

Who knows what the defense does if they reach a SB and don't have to face Mahomes, Burrow or Lamar in a big playoff game for once.

 

If the defense makes a play in 13 seconds or the offense makes a play at the end of the last two losses then maybe we'd have found out.

 

And yes, the Bills 29 ppg offense from 2020-2025 regularly underperforming in these games ABSOLUTELY has bearing on their season ending.

 

 How can you claim it doesn't when you watched that Bengals blowout or the Allen/Brady choke job at the end of 2023 season?    Ridiculous.

 

You guys have these vague conflations that represent the "excuses" that I am talking about.

 

Like @MasterStrategist claiming the Bills have to score 30+ points in these divisional or AFCCG matches is another one.    

 

It's hyperbole.  These underachieving Bills score just under 23 and allow just under 28 in the divisional and AFCCG rounds where they end up bowing out every year.

 

Maybe if their offensive scoring average is 26 in those games they win 2 or 3 of those 5 losses?

 

IF.........those scores are timely.   Specifically at the end of the several very close games.

 

Which brings us to the biggest thing your arguments lack.

 

Context.

 

The Chiefs allow 29+ ppg in SB's but have won 3 of 5 despite being significantly outscored overall.

 

And no, I'm not playing both sides of the fence when I don't consider the WC round and the divisional round in the same sense.  

 

There are only 4 teams that have mattered in the AFC since 2020.  

 

We speedboated Mac Jones?  

 

Who cares?  

 

Does it really matter that the Bills were struggling offensively for 3 quarters in the WC game against the Broncos last year?

 

 The Bills were clearly the overwhelming favorite and better team in all of these games.

 

The ONLY clutch end-of-game sequence that the offense or defense has ever had in the playoffs in the Allen era was the defensive stop at the end of that Colts WC game.    

 

But a tired Philip Rivers,  Mason Rudolph, the severely out-QB's divisional opponents and rookie Bo Nix?   What do we glean from parsing meaning from the Bills performances in the WC round?

 

And again, for context........the 2020 Tom Brady SB winning Bucs won a closely contested, one-score WC game against a lousy 7-9 Washington team.   

 

When the defense gives up 30+, isnt it common sense that we need to outscore opponent to win?

 

You have some weird twisted logic.

 

Bottom line, we have a good enough offense to win- if Josh plays within himself.  Too many missed chances in the '24 Chiefs game, at crucial moments.  Not for a lack of playmakers, but not executing and some questionable playcalling at times.

 

OTOH, the defense doesnt have a Josh Allen.  So we end up giving up massive points, to a middling Chiefs offense in 2024/2023, and had no answers for Burrow in 2022.  

 

Not sure what football game youre watching.  Stats are stats, useful as I should know in a profession full of them. But also, the knowledge of football and knowing our team cant do a lick of anything to get off the field on 3rd downs. 

 

We take major luck/breaks to keep with elite offenses.  Im not counting on the Hardmans of the world to fumble at the 1.  Or Mark Andrew's to cough it up and drop a key 2 point play.  Our defense has been lucky at many moments.

 

We need more talent on that side, obviously Beane agrees with certai posters here.  Beane also missed on several high defensive picks and DL FAs. which got us into this problem.

 

We cant have every position be an all pro.  We had the QB/Wr elite combo- how'd that work out?  Missed on OL, DL then.  Now we have the OL in a good spot and need a very good DL to compete--- this is a Coleman thread after all, hes going to be alot better in Year 2 from what I've seen in. person.

 

 

[Billl]

9 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Only about 50 times since it has happened form every angle available.
 

 

Now you're moving the goalposts into an entirely different argument. Another losing one mind you, but the more popular one of "he should have thrown to Diggs".

Allen 1000% made the right decision to throw to Shakir. He knew Shakir would be open for the TD and he went for it.  He made the right decision and threw the right pass. You never pass up a TD because you don't know what will happen the next play or any play after that. Fumbles, flukes, etc. You take the TD.
 

No it was 100% on Dion. Allen holds zero blame. 

Your original suggestion of Allen moving up into the pocket would have led to a guaranteed sack and is something you *never* do against a bull-rush. And shifting the line against a 4 man uniform front with a defender motioning a potential blitz on the opposite makes me question your understanding of the game.

 

25 minutes ago, Einstein said:

What in the world!? You wanted Allen to slide protection against a 4 man rush and a uniform defensive front with a blitzer threatening on the opposite side!? And you wanted Allen to step up into the pocket, which would have hastened him being hit by Jones? QB's step up in the pocket to avoid pass rushers coming on the backside. Not pass rushers bull rushing. If Allen steps up, Jones swims inside and blasts Allen into the turf

There is one person to blame on that play and his name rhymes with Peion Pawkins. Maybe an honorable mention to Shakir route running taking a tad longer than it should have.

Nobody is saying he should have slid the protection.  They’re saying he should have slid right into the massive pocket.  It was a 2 man rush with a double team on the right edge, two DTs playing contain, and then Dawkins blocking Chris Jones on the left edge.  

 

All you can ask of any LT matched up against Chris Jones is to lose slowly, and Dawkins did that.  Josh had time and room to slide into the pocket, but he didn’t.  He locked onto Shakir and stood directly in the way of where Jones was pushing Dawkins, ie. the worst possible place to be.  Josh had a clean pocket and two open receivers.  He doesn’t make many bad plays, but he did that time.

[Einstein]

11 minutes ago, Billl said:

Nobody is saying he should have slid the protection.  They’re saying he should have slid right into the massive pocket. 

 

Yes this is the same “he should have done something else” argument that has been refuted a thousand times. He did have room to scramble right.

 

But this, as has been said before, is 1000% the wrong move. You take the TD. Every. Single. Time.

 

You don’t take a 7 yard scramble to the right over a TD. The next play could be a fumble, INT, fluke snap, whatever. You take the TD 100 times out of 100.

 

Bending and twisting every facet of this play to excuse Dawkins getting manhandled is a joke. 

 

Quote

Josh had time to slide into the pocket 

 

This is absolute nonsense. Had Josh slid up into the pocket, Jones sacks him. Period. End of story. Literally zero question. You *NEVER* slide up into a bull rush. That is QB-ing 101. 

 

Chris Jones would have LOVED for Allen to slide up into that pocket.

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Einstein

[RoscoeParrish]

20 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Allen 1000% made the right decision to throw to Shakir. He knew Shakir would be open for the TD and he went for it.  He made the right decision and threw the right pass. You never pass up a TD because you don't know what will happen the next play or any play after that. Fumbles, flukes, etc. You take the TD.

We didn’t score a TD. 
 

I would say a very good reason to not attempt a low percentage TD pass is because it’s a low percentage TD pass. 

[Einstein]

Just now, RoscoeParrish said:

We didn’t score a TD. 
 

I would say a very good reason to not attempt a low percentage TD pass is because it’s a low percentage TD pass. 

 

It wasn’t low percentage at all. Had Dawkins now been dog-walked, it would have been a nearly 100% chance of TD (Shakir’s catch % was over 90% at this point). 

 

PS, doing something else (like hitting Diggs for a 10 yard slant) or scrambling right is what is truly the low percentage TD pass. 0% actually.

[RoscoeParrish]

Just now, Einstein said:

 

It wasn’t low percentage at all. Had Dawkins now been dog-walked, it would have been a nearly 100% chance of TD (Shakir’s catch % was over 90% at this point). 

 

PS, doing something else (like hitting Diggs for a 10 yard slant) or scrambling right is what is truly the low percentage TD pass. 0% actually.

The play didn’t work.

 

You keep arguing you take the TD every time, but the reality is that when we went for the TD, on a low percentage pass to a slot WR, we didn’t get it, it left us in 3rd and long and we lost.

 

I would argue the reality of the situation has decided that was the wrong play. 

[Simon]

16 minutes ago, Billl said:

They’re saying he should have slid right into the massive pocket.

 

If he slides, the window to Shakir slams shut and it's a scramble drill.

He trusted Dawkins to give him one more step and it just didn't work out.

 

6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Had Dawkins now been dog-walked, it would have been a nearly 100% chance of TD

 

It kind of even fouled up the following 3rd down where Allen immediately bailed right to get away from that matchup and it took away the entire left side of the field, which was where that ball ultimately needed to go.

[Einstein]

Just now, RoscoeParrish said:

The play didn’t work.

This is called outcome bias and is an easy (and wrong) trap to fall into.

 

Had Josh thrown to Diggs and Diggs fumbles the ball, you could say “why didn’t Allen throw to a wide open Shakir?”.

 

If Josh scrambles right, and tears his ACL, one can question “why didn’t he throw to diggs or shakir in the endzone?”.

 

Josh made the right decision. You ALWAYS go endzone if the endzone is open because you don’t know what will happen after that if you take the shorter play. Mathematically, endzone will always be the right call due to the unknown.

 

At a clip of 6 yards per play, we need 4 more plays to get into the endzone at a success rate/completion of (0.8) and not turn the ball over at (0.95). Combined chance per play = 0.8 × 0.95 = 0.76. You need 4 successful plays: 0.76⁴ = 0.333 or 33.3%. 

 

Reduced odds over one play touchdown.

 

It was the right call. People can argue this (wrongly) until cows come home but Allen made the right decision. It is not his fault that Dawkins got manhandled.

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

It wasn’t low percentage at all. Had Dawkins now been dog-walked, it would have been a nearly 100% chance of TD (Shakir’s catch % was over 90% at this point). 

 

PS, doing something else (like hitting Diggs for a 10 yard slant) or scrambling right is what is truly the low percentage TD pass. 0% actually.

Pry a 30% chance if he had a clean pocket.  It would've had to be a frozen rope throw for 40 air yards in a tight window to a smaller WR.  A throw to Diggs probably gets you a first down and that clock keeps running.  Chiefs may have burned a time out there so you get a 1st and 10 with 1:55 left at their 15 down three with them only one timeout left.  I'll take my chances at that point of either scoring a TD with not a lot of time on the clock or a chip shot FG to tie the game and force OT.  Point is they abandoned their ball control game plan at the worst time possible against a superior opponent (because of our cluster of injuries at LB) going into that game.

[Billl]

15 minutes ago, Simon said:

If he slides, the window to Shakir slams shut and it's a scramble drill.

He trusted Dawkins to give him one more step and it just didn't work out.

Totally disagree.  It was a late opening window, and Josh needed to either hit Diggs flashing wide open across the middle or slide into the pocket to buy another half second for Shakir to break into the opening in the back of the end zone.  When you’ve got a huge pocket and 2 open WRs and don’t get the ball anywhere near either of them, that’s on the QB.

 

Look again at how much room he has if he slides to his right.  Look at how open Diggs was, and we know that Shakir broke open a split second later.  If a QB needs all that AND for his LT to completely stone a HOF pass rusher, then there’s no chance of success.  It was poor pocket awareness on Allen’s part.  That is a play he simply has to make with the season on the line.

[Einstein]

48 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Pry a 30% chance if he had a clean pocket.  It would've had to be a frozen rope throw for 40 air yards in a tight window to a smaller WR. 

 

Uh, have you seen Josh Allen play football? 😜

 

He almost got it to Shakir even *while being hit!* That’s a touchdown if Dawkins didn’t lose the rep.

 

It also wasn’t a tight window at all. Shakir was wide freaking open. The closest defender was 5 yards away.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Einstein

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

When the defense gives up 30+, isnt it common sense that we need to outscore opponent to win?

 

You have some weird twisted logic.

 

Bottom line, we have a good enough offense to win- if Josh plays within himself.  Too many missed chances in the '24 Chiefs game, at crucial moments.  Not for a lack of playmakers, but not executing and some questionable playcalling at times.

 

OTOH, the defense doesnt have a Josh Allen.  So we end up giving up massive points, to a middling Chiefs offense in 2024/2023, and had no answers for Burrow in 2022.  

 

Not sure what football game youre watching.  Stats are stats, useful as I should know in a profession full of them. But also, the knowledge of football and knowing our team cant do a lick of anything to get off the field on 3rd downs. 

 

We take major luck/breaks to keep with elite offenses.  Im not counting on the Hardmans of the world to fumble at the 1.  Or Mark Andrew's to cough it up and drop a key 2 point play.  Our defense has been lucky at many moments.

 

We need more talent on that side, obviously Beane agrees with certai posters here.  Beane also missed on several high defensive picks and DL FAs. which got us into this problem.

 

We cant have every position be an all pro.  We had the QB/Wr elite combo- how'd that work out?  Missed on OL, DL then.  Now we have the OL in a good spot and need a very good DL to compete--- this is a Coleman thread after all, hes going to be alot better in Year 2 from what I've seen in. person.

 

 

If i set this post aside as a stand alone summation instead of a retort, I really like this post MS.

Get off the stats machine and isolate playoff games and some key division games and I would like to agree to  The bolded

The defense does not finish out drives well in enough of  the key moments late season. When it really really matters.

 I expect the Coaching is well aware

So we need plenty of Josh  And a Defense that has another level when the pressure it at it's peak

 Go Bills

[Einstein]

32 minutes ago, Billl said:

Totally disagree.  It was a late opening window, and Josh needed to either hit Diggs flashing wide open across the middle or slide into the pocket to buy another half second for Shakir to break into the opening in the back of the end zone.  

 

There was no sliding in the pocket. You can try to make that argument until the cows come home but it won’t ever be the truth.

 

Allen could have completely bailed the pocket and ran right, but then he would have had zero chance at hitting Shakir or Diggs. It would have just been a QB run.

 

But sliding? … no. Any upward movement that wasn’t a complete sprint out of the pocket would have resulted in Jones sacking him. Jones was just waiting for Allen to try that. For goodness sake, that is the entire purpose of a bull-rush. You either disrupt the passer by knocking the linemen into him, or you disengage the lineman (who can’t see behind him) and sack the QB when the QB tries to step up. 

 

I don’t know why you’re trying to pretend like these are viable options. I never pegged you as a troll before and am hoping you aren’t becoming one, but I have a hard time believing if Mahomes had picked the wide open TD and his LT ruined the play that you would be finding any blame in Mahomes.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Einstein

[3rdand12]

52 minutes ago, Einstein said:

This is called outcome bias and is an easy (and wrong) trap to fall into.

 

Had Josh thrown to Diggs and Diggs fumbles the ball, you could say “why didn’t Allen throw to a wide open Shakir?”.

 

If Josh scrambles right, and tears his ACL, one can question “why didn’t he throw to diggs or shakir in the endzone?”.

 

Josh made the right decision. You ALWAYS go endzone if the endzone is open because you don’t know what will happen after that if you take the shorter play. Mathematically, endzone will always be the right call due to the unknown.

 

At a clip of 6 yards per play, we need 4 more plays to get into the endzone at a success rate/completion of (0.8) and not turn the ball over at (0.95). Combined chance per play = 0.8 × 0.95 = 0.76. You need 4 successful plays: 0.76⁴ = 0.333 or 33.3%. 

 

Reduced odds over one play touchdown.

 

It was the right call. People can argue this (wrongly) until cows come home but Allen made the right decision. It is not his fault that Dawkins got manhandled.

I have to ask, 

What could Josh have done better ?   I have not watched the play again

 I just cant blame the fail  just on Jones getting that pressure over Dion.

Being a team game . Everyone is always adjusting as the play unfolds, and quickly as possible.

No one player wins every play

Could Josh have compensated in the moment ?

Half step back or left. Seen it quicker and floated the ball to him to go get ? thoughts

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

I have to ask, 

What could Josh have done better ?   I have not watched the play again

 

I think it’s a good question, but I also think it’s important to remember that whenever we answer questions like this, we should take into account what is theoretically possible for a player to do better and seperate it from what is actually probable, in a game situation, for a player to do better. Some posters, for example, want to defy physics to make a suggestion for what a player should have done differently. Others simply ignore fatigue on what is possible for a player to do late in a game.

 

Anyway, I think you could make the argument that if he took one more step backwards in his dropback (or readjusted one step back after), he gets the throw off. 

 

But then we have to ask ourselves - what are we really doing by making these suggestions? And the undeniable answer is that we are clawing to find ways to cast blame on anyone other than the person at fault, Dion Dawkins.

 

Dawkins got blown up. That is what happened. All the nuanced takes of what Allen could have done with a step in this or that direction is simply deflection from the fact that Dawkins got blown up. 

 

 

Also, as I mentioned in a previous post that you may not have seen because it is a couple pages back now, Josh could’ve decided to throw to Diggs and just take the first down. But I will never ever blame a player for going end zone in that situation. It was the right decision. Mathematically it is 100% the right decision.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

Only about 50 times since it has happened form every angle available.
 

 

Now you're moving the goalposts into an entirely different argument. Another losing one mind you, but the more popular one of "he should have thrown to Diggs".

Allen 1000% made the right decision to throw to Shakir. He knew Shakir would be open for the TD and he went for it.  He made the right decision and threw the right pass. You never pass up a TD because you don't know what will happen the next play or any play after that. Fumbles, flukes, etc. You take the TD.
 

No it was 100% on Dion. Allen holds zero blame. 

Your original suggestion of Allen moving up into the pocket would have led to a guaranteed sack and is something you *never* do against a bull-rush. And shifting the line against a 4 man uniform front with a defender motioning a potential blitz on the opposite makes me question your understanding of the game.

I didn’t move any goal posts and this is still inaccurate. 

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Do you actually think your vague, barstool logic works?

 

The "main reason" the Bills season has ended without a Lombardi is LITERALLY because they haven't even reached one.   It's not mainly the offense or defense.  

 

Who knows what the defense does if they reach a SB and don't have to face Mahomes, Burrow or Lamar in a big playoff game for once.

 

If the defense makes a play in 13 seconds or the offense makes a play at the end of the last two losses then maybe we'd have found out.

 

And yes, the Bills 29 ppg offense from 2020-2025 regularly underperforming in these games ABSOLUTELY has bearing on their season ending.

 

 How can you claim it doesn't when you watched that Bengals blowout or the Allen/Brady choke job at the end of 2023 season?    Ridiculous.

 

You guys have these vague conflations that represent the "excuses" that I am talking about.

 

Like @MasterStrategist claiming the Bills have to score 30+ points in these divisional or AFCCG matches is another one.    

 

It's hyperbole.  These underachieving Bills score just under 23 and allow just under 28 in the divisional and AFCCG rounds where they end up bowing out every year.

 

Maybe if their offensive scoring average is 26 in those games they win 2 or 3 of those 5 losses?

 

IF.........those scores are timely.   Specifically at the end of the several very close games.

 

Which brings us to the biggest thing your arguments lack.

 

Context.

 

The Chiefs allow 29+ ppg in SB's but have won 3 of 5 despite being significantly outscored overall.

 

And no, I'm not playing both sides of the fence when I don't consider the WC round and the divisional round in the same sense.  

 

There are only 4 teams that have mattered in the AFC since 2020.  

 

We speedboated Mac Jones?  

 

Who cares?  

 

Does it really matter that the Bills were struggling offensively for 3 quarters in the WC game against the Broncos last year?

 

 The Bills were clearly the overwhelming favorite and better team in all of these games.

 

The ONLY clutch end-of-game sequence that the offense or defense has ever had in the playoffs in the Allen era was the defensive stop at the end of that Colts WC game.    

 

But a tired Philip Rivers,  Mason Rudolph, the severely out-QB's divisional opponents and rookie Bo Nix?   What do we glean from parsing meaning from the Bills performances in the WC round?

 

And again, for context........the 2020 Tom Brady SB winning Bucs won a closely contested, one-score WC game against a lousy 7-9 Washington team.   

 

Correct- In order to win the Super Bowl- we can’t lose in the playoffs.  So the losing playoff games are the only games I’m talking about.  The other games are 💯 inconsequential whether you agree or don’t agree this that statement.  Each game is its own entity.  I’m not lacking context- you’re refusing to acknowledge the context of which I’m speaking. 
 

The national narrative is that our defense has failed Josh Allen.  It’s not that Josh Allen and the offense failed our defense.  

You disagree and it makes sense why you do.  This has been your argument for years (not enough investment in the WR position, which I agree with).  Why would you take the L when you can regurgitate stats that have nothing to do with my conversation - season ending losses- rather shifting the argument to how our O has underperformed in games that we’ve won.  

 

agree to disagree
 

 

 

 

[Doc Brown]

33 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Uh, have you seen Josh Allen play football?

 

He almost got it there even *while being hit!* That’s a touchdown if Dawkins didn’t lose the rep.

 

It also wasn’t a tight window at all. Shakir was wide freaking open. 

Allen was 1 of 19 on the season/post season of passes more than 20 yards down the middle of the field that season?  Dead last in the NFL.  What's the definition of insanity their Einstein?  I was being generous with 30%.

Edited 1 hour ago by Doc Brown