Dalton Kincaid Still Skinny

[SoonerBillsFan]

On 5/14/2025 at 2:15 PM, mjt328 said:

 

Outside of all the stats and advance metrics, I'm just not seeing Kincaid as a dangerous weapon in our passing game.

Hopefully that changes.  But as of right now...

 

He hasn't been a threat in the red zone. 

He hasn't been a threat downfield.

He hasn't been a reliable target on third down.  

He hasn't been a producer of YAC on short passes.

 

Ignore his drops.  Give him a pass because of the injury.  Show me that many of his passes were uncatchable.

I'm still not seeing a guy that puts fear into the opposing defense.

 

Even if he's not on a Pro Bowl level, Dawson Knox has proven to be superior in all of the above areas.  Even though he's had some drop problems himself, Knox has also made some spectacular catches.  He's a decent red zone threat, and can make plays downfield.  And he's shown the ability to run people over to get extra yards after the catch.  Kincaid has shown virtually nothing so far that we couldn't get out of a typical Day 2-3 pick.

 

We were told that he had the best hands in his draft by Beane,and that meant over the WR's.   I haven't seen that yet either. 

[Richard Noggin]

2 hours ago, streetkings01 said:

Seems like every season we find a whipping boy around here…..for 2025 it’s Kincaid.

 

You don't think the general angst surrounding the value expended on acquiring Kincaid, compared to the ROI, is at all warranted?

 

I'm not at all suggesting he's already a bust, but it IS perfectly rational to see the trade up to draft him as largely unrewarded, to date. Kincaid could step up in year 3 and become a reliable weapon for Allen, but it hasn't happened yet.

 

Something that doesn't help his cause with fans: he doesn't look like a guy DEVOTED to maximizing his time in the weight room. I've certainly enjoyed ridiculing Travis Kelce's body composition in recent years. 

[Thurman#1]

19 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

You don't think the general angst surrounding the value expended on acquiring Kincaid, compared to the ROI, is at all warranted?

 

I'm not at all suggesting he's already a bust, but it IS perfectly rational to see the trade up to draft him as largely unrewarded, to date. Kincaid could step up in year 3 and become a reliable weapon for Allen, but it hasn't happened yet.

 

Something that doesn't help his cause with fans: he doesn't look like a guy DEVOTED to maximizing his time in the weight room. I've certainly enjoyed ridiculing Travis Kelce's body composition in recent years. 

 

 

Can't speak for him, but no, not I really don't think it's particularly warranted. He had an excellent rookie year. He got injured and had a much less good second season. He was a very consistent weapon that first year, so we know he can do it.

 

There should be angst for nearly anyone, to some degree. Kincaid hasn't proven himself yet, so he certainly deserves a certain amount of it. Again, most of the team also. 

 

We know he can do it. But we don't know he will do it. Seems pretty likely but yeah, some worry.

 

But worry this early in the off-season that he hasn't put on noticeable amounts of weight so quickly? When recovering from injuries?  No, that doesn't seem worth any concern to me. If he still looks slender as camp approaches ... that would be worth some worry, I think. At that point he'll have had about eight months to get the weight on. That's enough time. Three months, without drugs, not so much

 

Can't say I've noticed Kelce's body composition lately. He's simply a guy who performs well, damn it. What he looks like has never much attracted my interest.

 

 

Edited 11 hours ago by Thurman#1

[Billsfed1]

Both Kincaid and Knox will have a huge role to play this season.  

 

Kincaid will rebound and there’s absolutely a place for Knox on a championship team.  

 

I’m glad we have the depth at that position TBH.

[Richard Noggin]

15 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Can't say I've noticed Kelce's body composition lately. He's simply a guy who performs well, damn it. What he looks like has never much attracted my interest.

 

 

You've NEVER made fun of Kelce's lazy physique as his on-field production diminishes? Try it out. Super fun. 

[Mikie2times]

 

2 minute mark, that is what I hope we can see more of this year. That seam route is the type of throw and catch I thought we would be able to execute with more frequency. 

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, streetkings01 said:

Seems like every season we find a whipping boy around here…..for 2025 it’s Kincaid.

Don't forget that Tremaine Edmunds is finally old enough to vote.

[Thurman#1]

On 5/15/2025 at 4:15 AM, mjt328 said:

 

Outside of all the stats and advance metrics, I'm just not seeing Kincaid as a dangerous weapon in our passing game.

Hopefully that changes.  But as of right now...

 

He hasn't been a threat in the red zone. 

He hasn't been a threat downfield.

He hasn't been a reliable target on third down.  

He hasn't been a producer of YAC on short passes.

 

Ignore his drops.  Give him a pass because of the injury.  Show me that many of his passes were uncatchable.

I'm still not seeing a guy that puts fear into the opposing defense.

 

Even if he's not on a Pro Bowl level, Dawson Knox has proven to be superior in all of the above areas.  Even though he's had some drop problems himself, Knox has also made some spectacular catches.  He's a decent red zone threat, and can make plays downfield.  And he's shown the ability to run people over to get extra yards after the catch.  Kincaid has shown virtually nothing so far that we couldn't get out of a typical Day 2-3 pick.

 

 

 

6.5 yards of YAC per reception just last year? He absolutely has produced YAC on short passes. No, he's no James Cook in pure speed or avoiding tackles, but yes, even injured he ran up YAC.

 

23 1st downs last year? 29 the year before that? He's run up a bunch of them.

 

I think it's fair to say he hasn't put fear in defenses. Will he in the future? Hard to know. Maybe. Maybe not.

 

"... shown nothing so far that we couldn't get out of a typical Day 2 - 3 pick"? Um, I'd have to totally disagree with that. 10th in the league in receiving yards? As a rookie? That's nothing you get out of a typical Day 2-3 pick, it simply isn't.

 

"Show me that many of his passes were uncatchable," you ask. Fair enough. There's no official stat like this, but I did find someone charting it. 

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/dalton-kincaid/

 

They say that in 2024 his catchable target rate -- just what it sounds like -- was 65.3%, only 36th best in the league.

 

You asked, I provided. Is this set in stone as an exact stat direct from God? No, but again, you asked.

 

He took a major step back last year, and it does appear that the injury was responsible for an awful lot of that. But he still has a lot to prove, no question.

 

 

 

 

Edited 9 hours ago by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

You've NEVER made fun of Kelce's lazy physique as his on-field production diminishes? Try it out. Super fun. 

 

 

Never. 

 

I respect you, Richard, but it doesn't sound like my cup of lemon ginger kombucha.

[Pete]

7 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Above you said mediocre TEs do well against the Bills.  A subjective opinion.  But when it comes to Kincaid and someone offers a subjective opinion you demand data.  Can you explain why?

I post facts and show data.  If someone says some guy said Dalton had advanced metrics- show me.  I haven’t seen these advanced metrics.  Show your work 

[Pete]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

6.5 yards of YAC per reception just last year? He absolutely has produced YAC on short passes. No, he's no James Cook in pure speed or avoiding tackles, but yes, even injured he ran up YAC.

 

23 1st downs last year? 29 the year before that? He's run up a bunch of them.

 

I think it's fair to say he hasn't put fear in defenses. Will he in the future? Hard to know. Maybe. Maybe not.

 

"... shown nothing so far that we couldn't get out of a typical Day 2 - 3 pick"? Um, I'd have to totally disagree with that. 10th in the league in receiving yards? As a rookie? That's nothing you get out of a typical Day 2-3 pick, it simply isn't.

 

"Show me that many of his passes were uncatchable," you ask. Fair enough. There's no official stat like this, but I did find someone charting it. 

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/dalton-kincaid/

 

They say that in 2024 his catchable target rate -- just what it sounds like -- was 65.3%, only 36th best in the league.

 

You asked, I provided. Is this set in stone as an exact stat direct from God? No, but again, you asked.

 

He took a major step back last year, and it does appear that the injury was responsible for an awful lot of that. But he still has a lot to prove, no question.

 

 

 

 

Reading those metrics, 246 pound drop machine Dalton (lmao) ran a 4.68 40, and ran 46% of snaps from the slot.  Mack Hollins ran a 4.53.  He lines up outside, blocks, and catches clutch throws.  Not to mention he was core special teamer on all 4 units.  I think it’s obvious that Mack was much, much more useful than the 29th ranked Tight End in 2024.

[oldmanfan]

3 hours ago, Pete said:

I post facts and show data.  If someone says some guy said Dalton had advanced metrics- show me.  I haven’t seen these advanced metrics.  Show your work 

Nope.  You claim there are mediocre TEs that have their way and show absolutely no supporting data, but demand such when someone has a differing view of Kincaid than yours.  Can’t have it both ways.

[Thurman#1]

On 5/14/2025 at 7:16 PM, Pete said:

Dalton was the 31st rated TE catch rate in the NFL last season.  PCL injury occurred week 10.  Why was Dalton so underwhelming the first 9 games?

 

 

First, catch rate is NOT a receiver stat. It is a stat that takes a ton of different things into account, QB, weather, defense, on and on and on. Receiver too, don't get me wrong, but a whole ton of other things as well.

 

I mean, if the QB misses him by 30 yards, it's still an attempt and an incompletion, in other words, it causes the numbers to slip. If the pass is perfect but the DT knocks it up in the air and intercepts it ... still an attempt, still an incompletion, still lowers the numbers for that receiver.

 

Second, he apparently had several injuries, not just the one. So that could help explain why it wasn't only after Week 10 that he was underwhelming.

 

Third, as pointed out above, he had one of the lowest catchable target rates in football, 36th. If your catchable target rate was 36th and your catch rate was 31st, you're actually over-performing.

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

 

 

2 hours ago, Pete said:

Reading those metrics, 246 pound drop machine Dalton (lmao) ran a 4.68 40, and ran 46% of snaps from the slot.  Mack Hollins ran a 4.53.  He lines up outside, blocks, and catches clutch throws.  Not to mention he was core special teamer on all 4 units.  I think it’s obvious that Mack was much, much more useful than the 29th ranked Tight End in 2024.

 

 

So, a different receiver, who is a different type of receiver, runs different routes, is used differently and was healthy last year, performed well?

 

Well, you've certainly made a point there. But not one that has much of anything to do with Kincaid.

 

I like Hollins. Was disappointed to hear they hadn't re-signed him. You too? Is that your point?

Edited 2 hours ago by Thurman#1

[BringBackFlutie]

"Bulk up" is one of the more ignorant terms I read around here (and there's a lot). Even 5 lbs of lean mass in a YEAR for a natural athlete who's lifted most of their life is an over-achievement. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 hours ago, Pete said:

I post facts and show data.  If someone says some guy said Dalton had advanced metrics- show me.  I haven’t seen these advanced metrics.  Show your work 

 

Lets look at his 2023 numbers then

 

Catch rate of 80.2% - 24th overall, but the 6th highest non-RB rate in the league, and his 91 targets were greater than the other 23 players.  

 

Success rate of 61.5% (catch of a pass that results in the offense making at least a certain percentage of the yards needed to get a first down or score) - 14th in the league right next to St. Brown, Collins, and Jefferson.  

 

Just now, BringBackFlutie said:

"Bulk up" is one of the more ignorant terms I read around here (and there's a lot). Even 5 lbs of lean mass in a YEAR for a natural athlete who's lifted most of their life is an over-achievement. 

 

It also doesn't make you better at football.  

[streetkings01]

10 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

You don't think the general angst surrounding the value expended on acquiring Kincaid, compared to the ROI, is at all warranted?

 

I'm not at all suggesting he's already a bust, but it IS perfectly rational to see the trade up to draft him as largely unrewarded, to date. Kincaid could step up in year 3 and become a reliable weapon for Allen, but it hasn't happened yet.

 

Something that doesn't help his cause with fans: he doesn't look like a guy DEVOTED to maximizing his time in the weight room. I've certainly enjoyed ridiculing Travis Kelce's body composition in recent years. 

Kid caught over 70 passes his rookie year…..caught 40 his 2nd year while dealing with injuries. Fans are questioning if he’s a bust which is crazy to me……if he has a mediocre 3rd year then I’ll jump on the bandwagon, but write him off now makes no sense to me!

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

So, a different receiver, who is a different type of receiver, runs different routes, is used differently and was healthy last year, performed well?

 

Well, you've certainly made a point there. But not one that has much of anything to do with Kincaid.

 

I like Hollins. Was disappointed to hear they hadn't re-signed him. You too? Is that your point?

The chatter this off-season has been very interesting.  If I can summarize:

 

1.  Threads about our poor WRs put forth by folks, ignoring all other receiving options including RBs and TEs, until it is convenient to all of a sudden include TEs and RBs with WRs when it is convenient

 

2.  Demanding objective data from those with whom you disagree on a topic, while offering up subjective opinions in other cases about players from other teams, and feeling insulted when asked to meet the same standard for one’s subjective assessments.

 

3.  Bemoaning the lack of separation and speed in the WR corps, but when players are added to address each (Palmer, Moore) dismiss the efforts as insignificant.

 

4.  Ignoring injuries that may have affected players (Kincaid, Coleman) 

 

5.  Claiming guys are busts (Example:  Coleman, Bishop) without accounting for the fact that there can actually be improvement in young players as they gain experience in the league

 

6.  Assuming that our offense cannot be as good as last year (or that the defense cannot improve) while indicating how other teams’ offenses and defenses will undoubtedly be improved

 

All very amusing.  Training camp can’t come soon enough.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

The chatter this off-season has been very interesting.  If I can summarize:

 

1.  Threads about our poor WRs put forth by folks, ignoring all other receiving options including RBs and TEs, until it is convenient to all of a sudden include TEs and RBs with WRs when it is convenient

 

2.  Demanding objective data from those with whom you disagree on a topic, while offering up subjective opinions in other cases about players from other teams, and feeling insulted when asked to meet the same standard for one’s subjective assessments.

 

3.  Bemoaning the lack of separation and speed in the WR corps, but when players are added to address each (Palmer, Moore) dismiss the efforts as insignificant.

 

4.  Ignoring injuries that may have affected players (Kincaid, Coleman) 

 

5.  Claiming guys are busts (Example:  Coleman, Bishop) without accounting for the fact that there can actually be improvement in young players as they gain experience in the league

 

6.  Assuming that our offense cannot be as good as last year (or that the defense cannot improve) while indicating how other teams’ offenses and defenses will undoubtedly be improved

 

All very amusing.  Training camp can’t come soon enough.

 

Don't forget propping up other teams young players.  Last year it was all about how we could have had breece hall over no-hands cook.  Now the same people want Cook extended.

Edited 49 minutes ago by Bleeding Bills Blue

[SoonerBillsFan]

22 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

The chatter this off-season has been very interesting.  If I can summarize:

 

1.  Threads about our poor WRs put forth by folks, ignoring all other receiving options including RBs and TEs, until it is convenient to all of a sudden include TEs and RBs with WRs when it is convenient

 

2.  Demanding objective data from those with whom you disagree on a topic, while offering up subjective opinions in other cases about players from other teams, and feeling insulted when asked to meet the same standard for one’s subjective assessments.

 

3.  Bemoaning the lack of separation and speed in the WR corps, but when players are added to address each (Palmer, Moore) dismiss the efforts as insignificant.

 

4.  Ignoring injuries that may have affected players (Kincaid, Coleman) 

 

5.  Claiming guys are busts (Example:  Coleman, Bishop) without accounting for the fact that there can actually be improvement in young players as they gain experience in the league

 

6.  Assuming that our offense cannot be as good as last year (or that the defense cannot improve) while indicating how other teams’ offenses and defenses will undoubtedly be improved

 

All very amusing.  Training camp can’t come soon enough.

If the Defense greatly improves then it helps the offense.  If that happens I can see us top 3 in scoring and yards.