Who is our worst match up in the AFC as of now?

[Mikie2times]

I see a lot of people referencing our previous success vs Baltimore, but to me the only match ups I put any weight in from a predictive standpoint occurred last year. This Baltimore offense is much different without Greg Roman who really dragged them down (and will likely do the same for the Chargers). Baltimore is also capable of beating us by more than a TD where KC can never pull away. Ultimately Baltimore just doesn't have the championship DNA, so I certainly understand why so many say it's KC.

 

I can also see a path where Houston could join this conversation which is why I listed them (certainly over the Chargers). That defense they have is very physical. They really eroded with injuries toward the end of the year, but held multiple QB's to some of the worst QBR's in the last decade. Not just Allen, but multiple QB's. Then looking at how they moved the ball on us in the first half. Physical back with Mixon, who is older but still producing. They could give us some issues. 

 

Ultimately, I think the general pecking order remains unchanged. It's Buffalo/Baltimore/Kansas City at the very top of the food chain from my view. 

 

    

[H2o]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

You can’t say that last part. Both teams scored on their opening Drive vs Cincy. Dying on the field isn’t an automatic loss.

The defense was nonexistent on our side. They were cutting through them like a hot knife through butter. 

[WideNine]

Cincinnati because they have zero fear of our team.

 

Why would they? We haven't beaten them.

 

That is a monkey I would like to see this team get off their back - boils down to defense too. The last few meetings they ate up our defense that basically gave up everything underneath and waiting for their timing offense and receivers with good hands to make a mistake - ended up looking like a knife going through butter.

 

They just ate up yards, TOP, and scored on just about every possession.

 

Would like to see if this defense has evolved to challenge the 1st and maybe 2nd reads you have to take away with more elite QB play.

 

 

Edited Saturday at 06:20 PM by WideNine

[Chandler#81]

25 minutes ago, H2o said:

The defense was nonexistent on our side. They were cutting through them like a hot knife through butter. 

As Allen does to every Defense he faces. See MVP

[DCofNC]

I don’t want to judge too much until I see the new D hit the field, that COULD change a lot.  At this point, I think Baltimore is the biggest problem with a physical running game, explosive if not great passing game and a D that seemed to have the Bills in check.   They beat themselves in the playoffs, honestly I feel there was more luck there than a better team winning. 
 

KC is always something and Cinci is going to score, there isn’t a lot that’s going to be easy.

[4th&long]

The chiefs. The bills still have not beat them when it matters most. 

[DrBob806]

Its really hard to say any other team besides KC.

 

It should be interesting this season with  4 games vs the AFC North. They could go 4-0 or 0-4, it's a good litmus test.

[corta765]

Even though we beat BAL and lost to KC, I would honestly rather play KC then BAL at this point. Josh has never had an issue with KC's D in terms of points and I am cautiously optimistic the defense can be a strength finally. Baltimore on the other hand is as hungry and desperate as the Bills and that run combo with Henry is a nightmare. You can truly only beat BAL one way which BUF did which is to minimize Henrys impact to just solid yards and no impact plays while having the lead to force them to play catch up.

 

KC if the Bills win we can do in a few ways. BAL I honestly think is a bludgeon fest and there is no other way (That goes for any AFC team fyi). When KC beat BAL in BAL for the AFC title it was very similar to what the Bills did.

 

It is over now but I also think BAL/BUF would've presented a tougher matchup for PHI then KC did. Josh & Lamar's rushing ability would've kept both in the game far more than Mahomes (different style QB not a criticism). I don't think either beats PHI but it would've been close to a one score game not a blow out.

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, corta765 said:

Even though we beat BAL and lost to KC, I would honestly rather play KC then BAL at this point. Josh has never had an issue with KC's D in terms of points and I am cautiously optimistic the defense can be a strength finally. Baltimore on the other hand is as hungry and desperate as the Bills and that run combo with Henry is a nightmare. You can truly only beat BAL one way which BUF did which is to minimize Henrys impact to just solid yards and no impact plays while having the lead to force them to play catch up.

 

KC if the Bills win we can do in a few ways. BAL I honestly think is a bludgeon fest and there is no other way (That goes for any AFC team fyi). When KC beat BAL in BAL for the AFC title it was very similar to what the Bills did.

 

It is over now but I also think BAL/BUF would've presented a tougher matchup for PHI then KC did. Josh & Lamar's rushing ability would've kept both in the game far more than Mahomes (different style QB not a criticism). I don't think either beats PHI but it would've been close to a one score game not a blow out.

 

The one thing the Ravens have to deal with is their division. The AFCN is brutal, and all of the teams hate one another. This division and the NFCE have the strongest rivalries. The Bills have good rivalries with the Pats, Dolphins, and Jets but it's not on the same level of intensity as the AFCN. It really is the black and blue division as the teams just beat the crap out of one another.

[billieve420]

On 5/1/2025 at 10:42 PM, H2o said:

I say Cincinnati because they have beat us handedly. We are 0-2 against them, and likely would have been 0-3 except for what happened to Hamlin. 

 

Sample size too small to pick the Bengals for me. 2022 season team chemistry appeared to be cracking with whatever personal things were going on internally and externally. After the Hamlin incident mentally they were not there and things went downhill. 2023 didn't play great but hung around with the Bengals despite losing. Kincaid had a killer fumble that game.

 

Still have to say it is KC where in the biggest moments team has continually come up short and it starts with the coaching staff getting outcoached.

[H2o]

58 minutes ago, billieve420 said:

 

Sample size too small to pick the Bengals for me. 2022 season team chemistry appeared to be cracking with whatever personal things were going on internally and externally. After the Hamlin incident mentally they were not there and things went downhill. 2023 didn't play great but hung around with the Bengals despite losing. Kincaid had a killer fumble that game.

 

Still have to say it is KC where in the biggest moments team has continually come up short and it starts with the coaching staff getting outcoached.

I hope, after all of the offseason additions to the DL and Secondary, that we absolutely murder Burrow and the Bengals this year. We'll see. I still think they are the worst matchup until we prove otherwise on the field. I have seen us beat both KC and Baltimore, no matter how people feel about the way it happened. I haven't seen us beat the Bengals with Burrow, Chase, and Higgins. 

[WNYFAN1]

1 hour ago, Gregg said:

 

The one thing the Ravens have to deal with is their division. The AFCN is brutal, and all of the teams hate one another. This division and the NFCE have the strongest rivalries. The Bills have good rivalries with the Pats, Dolphins, and Jets but it's not on the same level of intensity as the AFCN. It really is the black and blue division as the teams just beat the crap out of one another.

Yeah the AFCE is an absolute joke and is definitely a huge advantage that we have.

[RoscoeParrish]

3 hours ago, corta765 said:

Even though we beat BAL and lost to KC, I would honestly rather play KC then BAL at this point. Josh has never had an issue with KC's D in terms of points and I am cautiously optimistic the defense can be a strength finally. Baltimore on the other hand is as hungry and desperate as the Bills and that run combo with Henry is a nightmare. You can truly only beat BAL one way which BUF did which is to minimize Henrys impact to just solid yards and no impact plays while having the lead to force them to play catch up.

 

KC if the Bills win we can do in a few ways. BAL I honestly think is a bludgeon fest and there is no other way (That goes for any AFC team fyi). When KC beat BAL in BAL for the AFC title it was very similar to what the Bills did.

 

It is over now but I also think BAL/BUF would've presented a tougher matchup for PHI then KC did. Josh & Lamar's rushing ability would've kept both in the game far more than Mahomes (different style QB not a criticism). I don't think either beats PHI but it would've been close to a one score game not a blow out.

I do not understand this.

 

fast forward to the 2025 AFCCG and you would rather play KC in KC than Baltimore in Baltimore?

[BillsFooteball]

Regular season: ravens 

playoffs: chiefs 

[HaldimandBills]

This is kind of a three horse race.

 

Ravens would be but who knows when Henry falls off the RB cliff and Lamar is legit snake bitten in the playoffs. That defense is going to be scary good with their off season additions. 

 

Bengals might be more legend than reality at this point. Bills have completely overhauled their offensive structure and their defense seems to be leaning towards being better at stopping talented QBs. Too many variables have changed since their last meeting. 

 

Chiefs are the Chiefs. Would be nice to have one game against them in the playoffs where we were the healthier team. Their receivers will be much better this season. Their defense and OL will be worse. What does this mean? I don't know. Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos are all trending up and the days of them clinching their division in November might be over. 

 

If the Bills defense can return to a top 10 Unit and if they are relatively healthy I like Buffalos chances. 

[90sBills]

10 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

I do not understand this.

 

fast forward to the 2025 AFCCG and you would rather play KC in KC than Baltimore in Baltimore?

I don’t get this either. It seems like fans have amnesia during the offseason of what the roadblock is. Go back to the last two offseason to read a lot of posts about how Cincy or Balt are more of a threat than KC. Then the postseason happens and we’d get reminded again where the real obstacle is. 

[GunnerBill]

On 5/3/2025 at 6:47 PM, Mikie2times said:

I see a lot of people referencing our previous success vs Baltimore, but to me the only match ups I put any weight in from a predictive standpoint occurred last year. This Baltimore offense is much different without Greg Roman who really dragged them down (and will likely do the same for the Chargers). Baltimore is also capable of beating us by more than a TD where KC can never pull away. Ultimately Baltimore just doesn't have the championship DNA, so I certainly understand why so many say it's KC.

 

I can also see a path where Houston could join this conversation which is why I listed them (certainly over the Chargers). That defense they have is very physical. They really eroded with injuries toward the end of the year, but held multiple QB's to some of the worst QBR's in the last decade. Not just Allen, but multiple QB's. Then looking at how they moved the ball on us in the first half. Physical back with Mixon, who is older but still producing. They could give us some issues. 

 

Ultimately, I think the general pecking order remains unchanged. It's Buffalo/Baltimore/Kansas City at the very top of the food chain from my view. 

 

    

 

Interesting, I think the Houston D is the opposite of physical, especially in the middle. I think it is fast and talented. They have playmakers in the secondary and their edge rushers are dangerous. I think their weakness is the middle of the Dline and the linebackers. That is where you can expose them if you can get physical. That and their offensive line are the weaknesses of that team.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, 90sBills said:

I don’t get this either. It seems like fans have amnesia during the offseason of what the roadblock is. Go back to the last two offseason to read a lot of posts about how Cincy or Balt are more of a threat than KC. Then the postseason happens and we’d get reminded again where the real obstacle is. 

 

Honestly it is close for me as to whether I'd rather play BAL in BAL or KC in KC. KC is a mental roadblock for the Bills in the post season. But Xs and Os wise I think the Bills matchup pretty well against them. BAL is a tougher Xs and Os matchup for us. The things they do well are exactly the things we do less well. 

 

Now if it is a home game.... I'd rather play Baltimore than KC every time. But on the road I genuinely think it is mighty close and I might fancy the Bills to finally pull a tight one out in a strategic battle with KC than I do to them outpunch the Ravens on their own turf in the playoffs. 

[Gregg]

49 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Honestly it is close for me as to whether I'd rather play BAL in BAL or KC in KC. KC is a mental roadblock for the Bills in the post season. But Xs and Os wise I think the Bills matchup pretty well against them. BAL is a tougher Xs and Os matchup for us. The things they do well are exactly the things we do less well. 

 

Now if it is a home game.... I'd rather play Baltimore than KC every time. But on the road I genuinely think it is mighty close and I might fancy the Bills to finally pull a tight one out in a strategic battle with KC than I do to them outpunch the Ravens on their own turf in the playoffs. 

 

On the road I would rather the Bills go to Arrowhead. I know they haven't won there in the playoffs, but they have won there plenty of times in the regular season. The Ravens in Baltimore would be the tougher game to win IMHO.

[finn]

I think this Bills team, with a better secondary and d-line and a settled identity on offense, can beat anyone. On the other hand, even with this new team, I can also see them losing to Chiefs, Ravens, and Bengals in the playoffs, with the advantage of having Allen once again neutralized by the disadvantage of having McDermott.

 

My hope for the season rests on this: I think Allen is finally going to prevail over the ineptitude of his head coach. I don't think he can play much better than he has, but I sense he is finally fed up. This is a fully realized, enormously talented player at the absolute peak of his career who will not longer tolerate losing. McDermott will haplessly steer this team to second- or third-best every year if Allen lets him. But I don't think Allen will, not anymore.