Logic's Buffalo Bills Draft Review -- The more things change, the more they stay the same

[Logic]

I'll start by saying that this was far from my favorite Bills draft.

I'm usually Mr Optimistic when it comes to draft classes, but I thought this year's class was just...fine. It was like if you fed Brandon Beane's draft tendencies and the Bills' needs into ChatGPT and asked it to spit out the 2024 Bills draft class. It was completely on brand, it filled the needs we all knew the team had, and it'll probably end up producing a few average players and a couple good ones.

Ho-hum. Nobody in this class makes me stand up and say "that guy's really gonna help the Bills get over the hump and win a title". 

Onto the picks:

1. Keon Coleman - I was not a fan of this pick. For a team whose WR corps needed more speed and separation, this guy made the LEAST sense to me of all the 1st/2nd round WR prospects. Josh Allen has historically thrived with fast, shifty WRs who separate well, and has not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation. So adding Keon Coleman? It feels like "Square peg, meet round hole". He does have great athleticism and RAC ability for a man his size. He's also young to the position, having played football full time for only two seasons and being only 20 years old. I have concerns about his ability to play X in the NFL, and I'll believe that he's a better fit as a big slot until proven otherwise. Here's hoping I'm wrong about Coleman. The absolute ceiling I see for him is "Solid WR2". Not what I was hoping for in a star studded WR class and with a crying need at the position.

2. Cole Bishop - Looks like he should be just what the doctor ordered at safety for the Bills. He seems to be more Poyer than Hyde, in that he's at his best in the box and playing the run, and he packs a wallop when he tackles. He appears to have untapped man coverage potential, with Dalton Kincaid saying Bishop usually got the better of him 1-on-1 at Utah. He also has freaky speed for the position and a great mental disposition. Should be an easy fit in the Bills' scheme. At the VERY least, I expect him to contribute from day 1 as a dime 'backer, but I'll ultimately be surprised if he doesn't wind up starting at one of the two safety spots by midseason. 

3. Dewayne Carter - Good bull rusher, great motor, tons of experience, impeccable character. Seems like a 1T/3T 'tweener. Quickly apparent from his interviews that he's one of the smartest, most likable, easy to root for guys you'll ever see in the NFL. Should be a quality rotational tackle for the Bills and seems like, in time, he will provide quality leadership and a steadying presence on the D-line. May never be a big play guy, but may at least be a "dirty work" guy who allows others around him to thrive.

4. Ray Davis - Hard running inside guy with great vision, ability to get skinny, contact balance, and underrated breakaway ability. Had the most receiving TDs in 2023 of any SEC running back in 25 years. Should provide a nice change of pace to James Cook without the Bills necessarily losing anything in the pass game when he comes on the field. An older prospect, but I don't care, because he's a running back, and he won't be here past his first contract anyway. Another "likability" and leadership All-Star. Davis should provide steadiness and depth, but doesn't do anything that wows you, and I'm not sure he moves the needle much on offense.

5. Sedrick Van Pran - Tons of starting experience at Georgia. Has some traits reminiscent of Mitch Morse in terms of quickness, twitch, and ability on the move. Stop me if you've heard this one before -- lauded for his leadership. Should provide a good backup plan to Connor McGovern at center and/or provide competition at that position. It will not shock me if this guy is starting by year two. Seems like a great value at this point in the draft. One of my favorite picks.

5. Edufuan Ulofoshio - What do you want me to say? You didn't think the Bills would let a draft pass them by without selecting a late round special teams linebacker, did you? The room is starting to get a bit crowded with Milano, Bernard, Williams, Morrow, Spector, and Ulofoshio. However...the Bills lost ST stalwarts Dodsen, Matakevitch, and Neal, and needed some reinforcements there. That's what Ulo seems to be. I'll be surprised if he ever amounts to more than that, but at this point in the draft, that's what you're getting.

5. Javon Soloman - Undersized speed rusher (though he does have a great wingspan for the position) who had absolutely eye-popping production at Troy, where he out-produced Demarcus Ware and Osi Umenyoira. He can be a designated pass rusher and special teams guy and can learn from his idol Von Miller, after whom he says he models his game. Very much a boom/bust prospect, with seemingly equal potential to be the steal of the draft or an outright bust. I liked this pick a lot, and I'm betting on the former over the latter.

6. Tylan Grable - What do you want me to say? Did you think the Bills were gonna let a draft go by without taking a project offensive tackle late? I don't have much to say about this guy. He's just like Tommy Doyle or Luke Tenuta before him: a developmental tackle prospect who's a long shot to make the 53-man roster. With VanDemark and Collins already in place as backup OTs, it's hard to see this guy making the roster.

6. Daequan Hardy - Special teams guy. Standout punt returner and gunner. I usually look to Bills' late round corners with excitement, because they're usually big-bodied guys with zone eyes who only dropped due to underwhelming athleticism. Hardy does not appear to fit that mold. He appears instead to be a punt return candidate and, beyond that, I'm not sure where he'd fit in. His only hope is as a nickel, but the Bills are obviously set there with Taron Johnson.

7. Travis Clayton - At least this one's fun. A guy from the International Pathways program who has never played a down of football in his life. But he's 6'7", 301 lbs and runs a 4.79. The hope is that he turns into the next Jordan Mailata. A fun story and will be fun to track, but obviously a longshot and likely a practice squad guy at best.



Overall, it was clear that leadership, maturity, and experience were high priorities for the Bills this year. Again and again, they picked guys who were team captains and lauded for their leadership abilities. Given all the leadership that walked out the door this offseason, that certainly makes sense. Again and again, they picked guys with lots of starting experience, guys who shined at the Senior Bowl, and guys who have their heads screwed on straight. Given that they will be counting on some of these guys to contribute from day one, and given that they seem to be doing a bit of a locker room reset, this also makes sense. 

The reason that I am ultimately unexcited by this year's draft class is this: I wanted the Bills to prioritize building around Josh Allen. I wanted them to either take a swing for the fences by trading up for a star receiver, or -- failing that -- to go the Packers route and draft a handful of skill position players to surround him with. If they were unable to acquire great quality, then I hoped they would at least acquire quantity. I fear that in choosing Keon Coleman, they may have failed to achieve the "quality" goal, and in refusing to draft any other receivers, they also failed to achieve the "quantity" goal. And Ray Davis is the definition of "uninspiring" at running back. He'll be a fine depth player and grind out tough yards, I'm sure, but he doesn't move the needle much on offense. Neither Coleman nor Davis seem like they upgrade the offense. Just...status quo at best.

In a year where I felt the very TOP priority was to improve on offense, I feel the Bills failed to meaningfully do so. In an offseason where I hoped they'd make a bold move or two to try to find an elite player for this offense, they failed to try. After hearing "Josh needs more weapons" for a couple years running, he now seems to have less. The WR corps seems to have regressed, and seems to lack any true downfield explosiveness or viable deep threat. 

This draft class was not a disaster, by any means. it seems FINE. Just fine. Keon Coleman doesn't scream "Alpha WR1" to me. Ray Davis seems like an average NFL backup. Cole Bishop and Javon Soloman seem to perhaps have playmaking potential on defense. Beyond that -- meh.

When the Bills decided to go young and start a roster reset, I had hope that Beane was gonna try to do things differently, since the old way he was doing things didn't get the Bills over the hump. They've been hitting too man singles and doubles over the years and not enough home runs. Instead, he appears to be doing things exactly the same way this time around. He seems to be content to collect character/culture guys, whose ceiling is "good, solid NFL player", rather than taking any risks or big swings for potential stars. He hasn't really taken those swings, to my estimation, since the Allen/Edmunds class. THAT'S why I'm disappointed in this draft class. It seems fine, solid, steady, and logical, but it doesn't seem like it'll move the needle much.

I will move on to hoping that the post June 1st money infusion brings us a quality veteran receiver and maybe a pass rusher either via free agency or trade. Failing that, it would be hard for me to conclude anything other than that it looks like the Bills are poised to take a step back this year. 2025 looks promising in terms of cap space and draft capital, but if it's gonna continue to be "business as usual" for Brandon Beane, then I'm not sure how excited I should allow myself to get for that. 

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

[GoBills808]

This is a fair take but moderate imo

 

I think it would be fair to say this draft+offseason gets us further from a super bowl

 

And for that imo it's a failure

[Dr. Who]

I agree with this. I hope he has a post 6/1 trade for an impact WR lined up. I don't have confidence that is the case. 

This is a model that makes the playoffs and fails against teams with elite playmakers.

Small caveat: I think Davis is a bit better than you are crediting.

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

This is a fair take but moderate imo

 

I think it would be fair to say this draft+offseason gets us further from a super bowl

 

And for that imo it's a failure

Right now, I agree with you. I think the Bills are further from Super Bowl contention right now than they were at season's end. Some of that was bound to happen due to salary cap implications and aging players that left, but...I can't help but agree. You either step forward, backward, or stand pat in a given offseason. At BEST, I feel the Bills stood pat, but I think it's more likely that they took a step back.

[KentuckyBillsFan]

This front office will never build around Allen… and I think the biggest reason for that is Sean McDermott. 

[Warcodered]

I'd love to know who the high talent big body guys they've put on this team with Josh Allen we have to make this assessment that he doesn't do well with them are. From my memory Josh Allen does well with short shifty WRs because Josh Allen has short shifty WRs.

Edited April 27 by Warcodered

[MJS]

Nobody knows anything. Stop pretending. Just hope for the best.

[HomeTeam]

I'm sorry so many fans expected the bills to go heavy on WR. I think this is a well rounded draft but I don't watch much college football to have an opinion. I do trust Beane though, so I'm hopeful. 

[Logic]

Just now, MJS said:

Nobody knows anything. Stop pretending. Just hope for the best.

If post-draft discussion and speculation aren't encouraged, then we might as well close up this message board.

 

[KentuckyBillsFan]

Just now, SoonerBillsFan said:

I believe that. I don't think Mcdermott wants a "josh Allen". He is dead set on run the ball, play good D and maybe control the clock.  It makes me wonder how much longer Allen is going to put up with it.

I think it’s also obvious that Pegula will never get rid of him. He should’ve been gone after this season imo but I think *when* the Bills fall short again this year they’ll just claim to be “rebuilding” and run it back

[No_Matter_What]

12 minutes ago, Logic said:

Ho-hum. Nobody in this class makes me stand up and say "that guy's really gonna help the Bills get over the hump and win a title". 

This is such a confusing statement to me.

 

Which player drafted 28 and later would make you stand up and say that?

[appoo]

What the hell is the this alternate to Keon Coleman that turns this offense into what ever it y'all imagine it's gonna be? Like what am I missing here

[MJS]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

If post-draft discussion and speculation aren't encouraged, then we might as well close up this message board.

That's what I'm doing. I'm discussing people's lack of knowledge and speculating that they know nothing about these players.

[Logic]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

I'd love to know who the high talent big body guys they've put on this team with Josh Allen we have to make this assessment that he doesn't do well with them. From my memory Josh Allen does well with short shifty WRs because Josh Allen has short shifty WRs.

Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes gave way to Robert Foster, Isaiah McKenzie, John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, et al.

Even Gabe Davis's effectiveness gradually waned the longer he was here. His limited route tree, stiffness, and inability to get consistent separation led to Josh rarely throwing it to him over the back half of last season.

 

[appoo]

2 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I believe that. I don't think Mcdermott wants a "josh Allen". He is dead set on run the ball, play good D and maybe control the clock.  It makes me wonder how much longer Allen is going to put up with it.

This is liteally the opposite of both McDermott's stated offensive preference, and reality of the McDermott era

[Gary Marangi]

Josh Allen will not sign a new contract if this keeps up and we have the same coach at the end of this contract 

[appoo]

The Bills got 2 instant starters, 2 heavy rotation guys, and potentially 2 depth + ST starters in this draft, and people are whining

[VW82]

I quite like this draft outside of the Coleman pick. I'm assuming VPG will start in which case we picked up three starters in Coleman, Bishop, and VPG. Carter and Davis will be rotational players. Soloman looks like he could be a useful DPR.

 

Let's not forget where this roster was two months ago. Beane pulled a rabbit out of his hat to get to this point. 

 

We didn't get a stud receiver, and in fact we still need another stopgap. Rome wasn't built in a day. Too many people got too caught up in this being the greatest wr draft since sliced bread. We'll fix it next year. In the meantime, now we can actually field a competitive team which I wasn't certain we'd be able to do 8 weeks ago.

Edited April 27 by VW82

[appoo]

Just now, Gary Marangi said:

Josh Allen will not sign a new contract if this keeps up and we have the same coach at the end of this contract 

Josh Allen won't sign an extension because Beane got him exactly what he desired?

[Logic]

Just now, No_Matter_What said:

This is such a confusing statement to me.

 

Which player drafted 28 and later would make you stand up and say that?

Trading up for one of the big three WRs -- which Beane said he didn't try to do -- would've done it.

Failing that, as I said, collecting quantity instead of quality might've accomplished that. Giving greater priority to surrounding Allen with multiple skillsets at wide receiver. 

When I look at the Bills' WR corps as it stands right now, it's hard not to feel like it's one of the least inspiring groups in the league.