Free Safety options already on our roster... or do you really think it should be in the draft?

[BillsFanForever19]

8 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I hate to say it but it's time to move on from Tre. Haven't we learned anything from the Von situation? Tre will never be the same player again time to cut him and use those savings to sign a vet safety plus we have to draft Poyer eventual replacement. The Bills have to get younger this off-season take our meds with the cap and draft well. We have to take a page from the Rams last off-season they got rid of big cap hits and went young and it paid off big time   

 

Doubly so when you consider the out in his contract is this offseason, he's on the books for 16.4m in cap this year and 16.6m in cap next season, we're set at CB with Douglas and Benford on the Outside, Johnson at the Nickel, and Elam at CB4, we're ridiculously over the cap, and have starters at WR, DE, DT, and S to replace, and a myriad of depth players.

 

The NFL is a cut throat business and emotions should never enter the equation. In this situation, we literally have no choice. Warm fuzzies be damned.

Edited January 27 by BillsFanForever19

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Yeah, it really is. The amount of mental gymnastics you're doing when it's as simple as Drafting or signing a Safety is incredible. 

 

You're right, we are stacked at CB. But we need a starting WR (plus at least 2 more for rotation and depth), a starting DE (plus 1-2 more for rotation), a starting DT (plus 2-3 more for rotation), and at least 1 starting Safety, possibly 2 (and another 1-2 for depth). All the while being ~44 million over the cap and one of our many CB's having an out in their contract to save a ton of money over the next two years.

 

The answer isn't move a CB to Safety because you have warm fuzzies. One of those CB's has an out in their contract, put in for a reason - in the event we're in bad shape roster wise, cap wise, and in case of fall off and injury - of which all have occurred.

 

The answer is simple. Move on from one CB and use that money this year and next year to address the multitude of positions where we're not only not stacked - we need starters. We can move on from one CB and still be in very good shape there.

 

And moving CB's to Safety isn't something that happens all the time like you think. It only happens if a guy is a tweener with experience at both positions at the College and/or Pro level. Or they're elite aging CB's with the tools to transition like a Patrick Peterson or Troy Vincent. That's not the situation here.

 

And even if it were as likely as you'd think it is that we'd just move a guy - it would be a project. You don't just move a CB to Safety, who's not played the position at the Pro Level, and say "okay, we're good there". It's a total projection. We'd still need to bring in a True Safety as insurance in the event that it wouldn't work. So knowing that we have to sign a guy anyways - this project would just cost us even more money by having to sign insurance and keeping on a CB that we could save money moving on from.

 

I'm honestly shocked it's even as close as 65 against, 34 for on your poll. It just makes zero sense any way you slice it.

 

Holy crap... so much of what you say you're in disbelief of here I can't believe you're in disbelief of.

 

Clearly we'll just have to agree to disagree.

[BillsFanForever19]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Holy crap... so much of what you say you're in disbelief of here I can't believe you're in disbelief of.

 

Clearly we'll just have to agree to disagree.

 

Take a look at the votes. Take a look at the replies. The opinions I'm in "disbelief" of aren't so much opinions, as things that just don't happen and make no sense.

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

We can get out from under Douglas without paying anything more. But he won't save us money this year and next year like Tre will. He's also not coming off an ACL Tear and an Achilles rupture. 

 

We won't be keeping both. We're not going to take a young ascending CB like Benford and make him CB3, as well as push Elam back to CB4. Tre won't be ready to start the season and he can't be counted on as anything but a reserve with limited reps when he does. And his contract pays him like a Top CB in the league.

 

As I've said and anyone who looks at our cap situation and the contracts we have said - it's a no brainer. Tre is gone.

 

Even Beane when he was asked about Tre's future started with "that's a good question" and not an unequivocal "he'll be here". Which is about as damning as Beane gets.

 

Okay... tell you what. Let's make a friendly wager.

 

Unless Tre White retires (which is possible and the reason I included the clause) then he's part of the Buffalo Bills in 2024.

 

Name your terms.

 

Agreed?

Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Take a look at the votes. Take a look at the replies. The opinions I'm in "disbelief" of aren't so much opinions, as things that just don't happen and make no sense.

 

This is the equivalent of someone using YouTube comments as overall public sentiment.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

3 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Doubly so when you consider the out in his contract is this offseason, he's on the books for 16.4m in cap this year and 16.6m in cap next season, we're set at CB with Douglas and Benford on the Outside, Johnson at the Nickel, and Elam at CB4, we're ridiculously over the cap, and have starters at WR, DE, DT, and S to replace, and a myriad of depth players.

 

The NFL is a cut throat business and emotions should never enter the equation. In this situation, we literally have no choice. Warm fuzzies be damned.

Always seems to be one of the key problems with this regime not knowing when to let players go . It's a young man's game and McBeane definitely doesn't have a clue about that they seem to operate as if a player hits his prime at the ripe age of 30 😂. 

 

I'm hoping this yr we don't have a 30 something old bk like Murray . Ntm signing a injury prone DE for 120 mil in Von when the previous off-season I was screaming for Hendrickson and Hasan Reddick!  U realize Hendrickson and Hasan at the time got less money combined then Von got? These mistakes are huge especially when u factor in they used 3 high picks that position and the best they got out of it is a 6sk a yr player Rouse. Boogie and AJ are gone now . This is purely bad resource allocation and now we're about to start feeling it. 

[transplantbillsfan]

46 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

 

 

Do yourself a favor. Use Giphy

[BillsFanForever19]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Okay... tell you what. Let's make a friendly wager.

 

Unless Tre White retires (which is possible and the reason I included the clause) then he's part of the Buffalo Bills in 2024.

 

Name your terms.

 

Agreed?

 

I don't gamble out of principle and having friends and family members who are/were addicts.

 

But I'll publicly admit I was wrong and you were right if Tre isn't a cap casualty.

 

Tre's just part of it though. We're 1000% not moving Douglas, Benford, Elam, or Jackson (especially since he's a FA) to replace Hyde.

[transplantbillsfan]

Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I don't gamble out of principle and having friends and family members who are/were addicts.

 

But I'll publicly admit I was wrong and you were right if Tre isn't a cap casualty.

 

Tre's just part of it though. We're 1000% not moving Douglas, Benford, Elam, or Jackson (especially since he's a FA) to replace Hyde.

 

That's fine.

 

Publicly admit you're wrong if any of these things happen. That's good enough 

[BillsFanForever19]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Do yourself a favor. Use Giphy

 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Always seems to be one of the key problems with this regime not knowing when to let players go . It's a young man's game and McBeane definitely doesn't have a clue about that they seem to operate as if a player hits his prime at the ripe age of 30 😂. 

 

I'm hoping this yr we don't have a 30 something old bk like Murray . Ntm signing a injury prone DE for 120 mil in Von when the previous off-season I was screaming for Hendrickson and Hasan Reddick!  U realize Hendrickson and Hasan at the time got less money combined then Von got? These mistakes are huge especially when u factor in they used 3 high picks that position and the best they got out of it is a 6sk a yr player Rouse. Boogie and AJ are gone now . This is purely bad resource allocation and now we're about to start feeling it. 

 

Hendriksen wasn't that FA class he was the year prior. Reddick was a FA both years but is a more questionable scheme fit here. Though having said that there was some similarity in the Philly defense last year under Gannon and he played better than I'd have expected in that.

 

Generally I agree over old players though. Beane loves them.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hendriksen wasn't that FA class he was the year prior. Reddick was a FA both years but is a more questionable scheme fit here. Though having said that there was some similarity in the Philly defense last year under Gannon and he played better than I'd have expected in that.

 

Generally I agree over old players though. Beane loves them.

I said that it was the yr prior that's why I also mentioned the 2 DE pks that same yr. 

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hendriksen wasn't that FA class he was the year prior. Reddick was a FA both years but is a more questionable scheme fit here. Though having said that there was some similarity in the Philly defense last year under Gannon and he played better than I'd have expected in that.

 

Generally I agree over old players though. Beane loves them.

Hasan is a young version of Von and he had  turned the corner the previous 2yrs before signing with Philly. He had a a couple good seasons his last in Arz and 1yr in Carolina. Because he was a tweener most teams didn't want to sign him I remember vividly him staying on the market longer then usual those previous 2 yrs before the Eagles signed him. 

[transplantbillsfan]

37 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

[machine gun kelly]

On 1/24/2024 at 5:43 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

I'm surprised most people seem to think we're going to find our 2024 starting safety in the mid rounds of the upcoming draft.

 

Safeties are pretty huge in McDermott's D.

That’s true, but we need even more WR’s, and Beane eluded to it in his final press conference.

[NeverOutNick]

I don’t trust McD in most areas but I will give him his deserved credit when it comes to evaluating (maybe that’s more Beane) and developing secondary talent. They hit the jackpot before with Hyde and Poyer and I am sure there are guys in free agency that fit this mold even now (I’ll dig in more this coming month). That all being said I don’t believe we need to invest early draft capital for the position because 1) there are way more pressing needs aka help Josh out (WR!!) and 2) the track record of finding talent later or cheaper options in free agency is proven (Benford, D Jackson, free agent finds Poyer, Hyde)

 

Right now without digging deep in the draft yet I know one guy I’ve talked earlier about is CJ Gardner Johnson. He’s exactly the kind of guy Beane snags. Hes going to be cheaper than he’s actually worth because of his injury this year, he’s young and he can play multiple roles on D. Would I love Antoine Winfield Jr? Heck yes! I was clamoring for him to be our pick when he came out in the draft but he’s going to be way too expensive now. This is a loaded draft class. Hopefully Beane and his team get a couple more picks in the mid rounds and hit on some future greats for us but no way I spend a top pick on safety or really any defensive player when at the end of the day, game on the line it will be Josh and his O taking us further in the playoffs.  

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-nfl-free-agency-rankings-safeties 

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

I don’t trust McD in most areas but I will give him his deserved credit when it comes to evaluating (maybe that’s more Beane) and developing secondary talent. They hit the jackpot before with Hyde and Poyer and I am sure there are guys in free agency that fit this mold even now (I’ll dig in more this coming month). That all being said I don’t believe we need to invest early draft capital for the position because 1) there are way more pressing needs aka help Josh out (WR!!) and 2) the track record of finding talent later or cheaper options in free agency is proven (Benford, D Jackson, free agent finds Poyer, Hyde)

 

Right now without digging deep in the draft yet I know one guy I’ve talked earlier about is CJ Gardner Johnson. He’s exactly the kind of guy Beane snags. Hes going to be cheaper than he’s actually worth because of his injury this year, he’s young and he can play multiple roles on D. Would I love Antoine Winfield Jr? Heck yes! I was clamoring for him to be our pick when he came out in the draft but he’s going to be way too expensive now. This is a loaded draft class. Hopefully Beane and his team get a couple more picks in the mid rounds and hit on some future greats for us but no way I spend a top pick on safety or really any defensive player when at the end of the day, game on the line it will be Josh and his O taking us further in the playoffs.  

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-nfl-free-agency-rankings-safeties 

 

Evaluating Hyde and Poyer was all McDermott. Beane wasn't here yet.

 

My view on safety is you sign one decent mid-range free agent. You keep Poyer for his final year (kick a bit of money into a void year if you need to) and you draft a guy round 3 or 4. Ideally Poyer plus FA play and you can get draft pick on the field a bit in dime to get his feet wet with the idea he takes over as the starter in 2025.

 

Kamren Curl is the guy for this team. I think he is severely underrated and would be an all pro calibre player on this defense. 

Edited January 27 by GunnerBill

[NeverOutNick]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Evaluating Hyde and Poyer was all McDermott. Beane wasn't here yet.

 

My view on safety is you sign one decent mid-range free agent. You keep Poyer for his final year (kick a bit of money into a void year if you need to) and you draft a guy round 3 or 4. Ideally Poyer plus FA play and you can get draft pick on the field a bit in dime to get his feet wet with the idea he takes over as the starter in 2025.

 

Kamren Curl is the guy for this team. I think he is severely underrated and would be an all pro calibre player on this defense. 

Sounds like we’re on the same page with the way we need to go about our holes. Just wonder if Curl played too well for Washington that he’s out of our price range. I’m on board if not 

[DJB]

Hopefully we take a guy in round 3.

 

My idea draft ;

 

Round 1 - WR

2 - DT

3 - S

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

Sounds like we’re on the same page with the way we need to go about our holes. Just wonder if Curl played too well for Washington that he’s out of our price range. I’m on board if not 

 

Possibly. Spotrac has him at $15.3m AAV. That is too rich for me I think. But if I could get him at $12m AAV or thereabouts and keep the cap hit down into single figures for the first couple of years I'd be in on that. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

6 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Doubly so when you consider the out in his contract is this offseason, he's on the books for 16.4m in cap this year and 16.6m in cap next season, we're set at CB with Douglas and Benford on the Outside, Johnson at the Nickel, and Elam at CB4, we're ridiculously over the cap, and have starters at WR, DE, DT, and S to replace, and a myriad of depth players.

 

The NFL is a cut throat business and emotions should never enter the equation. In this situation, we literally have no choice. Warm fuzzies be damned.

I get it but would cutting him make his cap hit even larger? I personally don't know the details of the contract.

[BarleyNY]

29 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I get it but would cutting him make his cap hit even larger? I personally don't know the details of the contract.

Tre Contract

 

New money in 2024 is $10.4M, which is the number to focus on. If cut prior to his roster bonus his cap hit would decrease from $16.44M to $10.37M. Some of that could be kicked out another year if we designated him a 6/1 cut.

 

To me the question is whether or not it’s worth $10.4M on the chance he can stay healthy and return to form. Also would we keep him beyond that? He is due $12.54M in 2025, his age 30 season. I think it would be prudent to let him go. A healthy Tre is certainly worth $10.4M, but I doubt we see that in 2024. Even if we see it in 2025 it would be at a total cost of $23M. I just don’t think it’s worth the risk. I’d let him go. 

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, below said:

 

You're kidding right.

 

On any NFL roster safety is one of the most replaceable positions.

 

That's why we essentially let Poyer walk last season. Fortunately he couldn't find a better deal.

 

They signed 2 safeties in 2017 because good safeties are readily available in FA.

 

If safety was the most important position we wouldn't be paying more $ to Miller. Or White. Or Douglas. Or Floyd. Or Oliver. Or Jones. Or Milano. Etc.

No, I'm not kidding.  I should have said safety is one of the most important positions in McDermott's defense.   He is defense is all about not giving up the big play.   His philosophy is to get pressure on the quarterback with four guys and only four, because with pressure, he can arrange seven back defenders in ways that cover all of the real estate that the QB can attack in less than three seconds.   That's his defense. 

 

Of the seven back defenders, safety is the most complicated position to learn, because the safeties are responsible for covering the most geography.  The safeties provide the defense for the deepest parts of the zone and also are expected to make tackles at and even behind the line of scrimmage.   In order to cover all of that territory properly, they need to understand whether the other 5 defenders are going, because they have to make instantaneous judgments about where they need to go.  They also need to have the speed to cover all of that territory, they need good cover skills, and they need to be good tacklers.  The corners and the linebackers are responsible for less territory, much less territory, so their decisions are less complicated.   

 

For some reason, the safeties didn't get the job done against the Chiefs, because the defense gave up all those chunk plays.   I doubt, however, that the explanation was that Hyde and Poyer fell apart.   I'd guess that it's much likely that the two linebackers and the two corners underperformed.  In McD's defense, the safeties rely on the other five backfield defenders do their jobs.   Those defenders don't have to be great, but they have to do their jobs.   That's why a guy like Levi Wallace could play successfully for the Bills.  Not a stud, by any means, but a guy who did his job consistently, so that the safeties could rely on what was happening in his zone.   Against the Chiefs, the linebackers and the corners all were suspect.   Douglas, because he was coming off an injury, Elam, who always has struggled playing this defense, Jackson, whom the Bills have been trying to replace for a couple of years (he was essentially Wallace's backup, which is all you need to know), Klein, who never has been more than an over-achiever who simply didn't have the physical skills to play the position, and Dodson, another guy coming off injury who, at his best, has been inconsistent.  

 

The Bills defense has succeeded as well as it has because Hyde and Poyer have consistently stopped the big play, over and over again.  When Hyde and Poyer were out last season, the defense struggled.  

 

I'm sure we're going to see the Bills put some high-level player at safety next season.  They may may get one in free agency.   They may draft one in the first or second round, but they probably don't want to rely on a rookie back there.   That's why I think Johnson may move.   He as everything they want in that position - all the physical talent, the brains, and the understanding of the defense.   It would be easier to succeed with a rookie slot corner drafted in the first or second round than to succeed with a safety.

[transplantbillsfan]

Okay... I think there are some posters saying we have to cut Tre White who need to listen to Greg Tompsett's update on the salary cap from 2 days ago.

 

Boiling it down... we owe him $16m. Releasing him gives us only $6m in savings and a $10m dead cap hit.

 

As Tompsett points out, it's unlikely we flat out release him. Much more likely to restructure his contract with some hard to reach incentives having to do probably with snap counts.

 

 

 

Oh yeah, and another CB successfully converted to Safety...

 

Micah Hyde

 

And Hyde was still young in his career.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 1/24/2024 at 3:20 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

I get it... there are a couple Safety threads right now.  If mods want to merge with this that one, that's fine.  I just think that thread is bringing up the only player who really won't be an option to convert to Free Safety, though I'll include him in the options in the poll.

 

The way I see it, the Bills might want to get a little creative this offseason with personnell and not simply replace all players that leave the roster with a new player they have to sign or draft.  Yes, the Bills have 10 draft picks.  But let's be realistic, if even half of our upcoming draft become significant contributors next season, that draft is a Homerun.  And I'd say there's almost no shot of finding half (5) of that draft becoming immediate or even in season starters.

 

So.... Buffalo needs to look long at hard at replacing UFAs we're going to lose to FA or retirement with roster replacements.

 

The obvious ones are the guys who play the same position.  Let's hope Shorter or Shavers can replace Sherfield's role as a depth WR/Special Teams player.  And if the Bills choose to cut Harty (possible to likely) for the CAP savings, let's hope Hamler or Isabella can replace him.  I know both of those guys are signed to Futures contracts... I believe that means that next year they're basically on a one year vet minimum salary... but that was with just a relatively quick google search if anyone wants to correct me.

 

As far as WRs go, I think if those things can happen, our offense will be pretty well set for next year when we draft 1 or 2 WRs with 1 of them likely being a 1st or 2nd round guy and an expected starter opposite Diggs.

 

Sorry for the tangent...  all that is to say that the secondary is the most complicated Unit on the team going into next season.

 

Safeties under contract next year right now are Poyer and Hamlin.  That's it.  I do think that Cam Lewis will be resigned at the vet minimum because the team loves him as depth across all positions in the secondary and he has great special teams ability.

 

Hyde's retiring.  I think we can all agree.

 

The team arguably has 4 starting CBs in White, Douglass, Benford and Elam.  Yes, I realize big question marks hover over Elam and White, but they have starting CB talent.  I think everyone would agree.  And I know Dane Jackson is a UFA who likely won't be back, but I'm going to factor him into this overall equation because, like Lewis, I think he's another player the team (justifiably) loves as a depth piece.

 

So... as it currently is, here's our secondary with the bolded guys as rostered guys (when healthy)... otherwise, practice squad guys:

 

CB- Tre White

CB- Rasul Douglas

CB- Kaiir Elam

CB- Christian Benford

CB- Taron Johnson

CB- Siran Neal

CB- Kyron Brown

CB- Ja'Marcus Ingram

 

S- Jordan Poyer

S- Damar Hamlin

S- ??????????

S- ??????????

S- ??????????

 

I think if we did absolutely nothing at the CB position in the offseason, we'll be good at that position in terms of both starters and depth.  Agree? I understand the White injury is concerning, but on the plus side, he got hurt in early October.  So, we'll see.  Even if White is out, I've heard so much praise for Ingram from the film buffs like Joe Marino and Bruce Nolan that I wonder if he might be the catalyst for trying the move I'm about to propose.

 

We might end up drafting a Safety early, but with the void we have going into this offseason at DT (only Oliver under contract) and the need for a true #2 or even #1b WR, I think Safety comes in the middle rounds.

 

So... I think our starting Free Safety for next year is already on our roster or was already on our roster.

 

Here are the players and the arguments for and against.  I'll go in descending order from what I think would be most likely & effective to least.  And I think the first 2 are pretty close.

 

Rasul Douglas

Argument for: Physical, zone corner with LOTS of zone experience, incredible instincts, a nose for the ball, and a very vocal leader.

 

Argument against:  Age.  How many effective years will we get with him as our starting Safety?  I think a good number considering Safeties generally age well, but we'll see.

 

Christian Benford

Argument for: Physical, zone corner, very good instincts, a nose for the ball, if he plays well at Safety this year and we extend him after his rookie contract, a starting Safety is a lot cheaper than a starting CB.

 

Argument against:  Young player we've already been grooming as our starting CB who is already really good at the position.  Why ruin a good thing?

 

Tre White

Argument for: Zone corner with maybe the most familiarity with McDermott's D, incredible instincts, a nose for the ball, team leader loved and respected by everyone

 

Argument against: Injury would not only hinder his start to 2024, but also his transition to Safety.  Not a very good tackler.

 

Dane Jackson

Argument for: Physical, zone corner with LOTS of familiarity with McDermott's D, good instincts, loved and respected by everyone on the team.

 

Argument against: Not under contract, so bringing him back would be a serious projection for a guy who's only a borderline starting CB.

 

Kaiir Elam

Argument for: Speed to the ball, a nose for the ball, well-documented as a hard worker, NFL bloodlines, former 1st round draft pick under contract for fairly cheap for 2 more years so converting him successfully (if we could) could get rid of the whole "wasted draft pick" narrative.

 

Argument against: Poor tackler, Has struggled for 2 years to learn McDermott's Zone D.

 

 

Personally, I want to see Douglas extended for 2 years so he's under contract for 3 years total (would lower his CAP hit next year) at a mid level starting Safety range.  I think he'd be a stud at Safety and the 2nd Green Bay CB McDermott would have brought to Buffalo and converted.

 

How about you?

Tre White would be a really interesting choice. Other elite CBs have made that transition and he’s very physical. I think his career is done, but I would love the Bills to give him one last shot. 

[BillsFanForever19]

25 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Okay... I think there are some posters saying we have to cut Tre White who need to listen to Greg Tompsett's update on the salary cap from 2 days ago.

 

Boiling it down... we owe him $16m. Releasing him gives us only $6m in savings and a $10m dead cap hit.

 

As Tompsett points out, it's unlikely we flat out release him. Much more likely to restructure his contract with some hard to reach incentives having to do probably with snap counts.

 

 

 

Oh yeah, and another CB successfully converted to Safety...

 

Micah Hyde

 

And Hyde was still young in his career.

 

Micah Hyde was a tweener who also played Safety in College. He wasn't just a young CB randomly making the transition at the Pro level.

 

https://hawkeyesports.com/roster/micah-hyde/

 

As I've said, the only times that transition is made is if they were Drafted out of College as a tweener with the versatility to play both spots or aging elite CB's who have the skills to transition (ala Peterson, Vincent, and Woodson). 

 

You never take a young CB who's playing the position at a high level and put them at Safety.

Edited January 27 by BillsFanForever19