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Wawrow hints an Internal Issues with the Bills


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10 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

You just dont get it.  When a defense can T-off based on formation and situation, it makes it a lot easier to defend.

 

Again, this is one of those myths that fans heard once and now can’t let go of. It’s not true.

 

Studies have been done on this. We don’t have to guess anymore. Let’s take a look

 

Sean Clements (a data analyst an NFL team), conducted a study a few years ago. He found that establishing the run does not affect the passing game, or vice versa. 

 

spRCM8_YVQxyeRe6WwgZLh3qF3KulCrX7nCjI3Ll

 

The boxplot shows little correlation between volume running and an increase of success passing. In other words, running the ball does not keep the defense “honest”.

 

We also have Ben Baldwin, the economist who runs a lot of football numbers on Twitter, who showed that expected points on offensive DECREASES as the number of rushing attempts increases. Contrary to the belief running the ball will help to set up the pass and score. 

 

ppWycNBvX7iwXVp96CYxDt2k8ylbRuni4FtjPm28

 

Conclusion: What you believe is a myth. You’re that 84 year old grandpa that everyone rolls their eyes at because he keeps saying the team needs to bring back the old single wing formation.

 

10 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Our offense is already figured out by formation so now they are barely even one dimensional.  

 

Figured out? The offense is #1 in yards and #2 in points. 2 of the 3 losses featured an offense that had over 480 yards in the game. It is ludicrous to say the offense is figured out.

 

They are struggling in the redzone which is the true problem.

 

10 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 Even the Chiefs run the football.

 

The Chiefs, Bengals, Vikings and Chargers all run the ball less than we do. This chart shows rushing attempts.

 

3-A64-C927-8165-4376-82-C2-4793-E017-A08

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23 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

many such examples.

 

this isn't close to being the best team in  the league.

 

Is it the best? Only one team will prove that. Is is close to being the best. Absolutely. To think otherwise shows embarrassing recency bias. 

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24 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

I guess the Vikings believed the myth too when they said in the post game pressers that they knew exactly what we were going to do in the 2nd half based on our formations. 

 

Post the actual quote. I can’t find it. Then we can discuss it.

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4 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

 

Is it the best? Only one team will prove that. Is is close to being the best. Absolutely. To think otherwise shows embarrassing recency bias. 

if you're constantly crapping yourself in pressure situations, you're not close to being the best, sorry.

 

Could they improve? Maybe, but I'm not holding my breath. This team has a worse record than both the Giants AND Jets, despite supposedly being more talented than both.

 

 

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On 11/15/2022 at 10:05 AM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

many such examples.

 

this isn't close to being the best team in  the league.

 

According to DVOA it still is.  If they aren't, why does it take good teams to have the Bills basically piss away myriad chances to win, have leads(2 of them double digit leads), and pretty much take miracles for these teams to win on the last possession by 3 points or less?  

 

A team who is also turning the ball over at an NFL leading rate.  With the entire starting secondary out...plus other starters.  There aren't many, if ANY, teams that would even be competitive under those circumstances, let alone up big and only losing due to mind numbing mistakes they are inflicting on themselves.

 

And in 2 of the losses they had nearly 500 yards of offense.  

 

Like what are you watching?

 

Sounds like you are one of these doom and gloom people who always sees the glass mostly empty. At the end of the day, you will be proven wrong in your assessment. Whether you will actually admit it or not is another thing.

Edited by Big Turk
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2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Again, I’m not trying to be dismissive, but you’re incorrect on the reasoning. I spent 2007-2021 on New Orleans. You see, hear and talk Saints all day. I know this better than just about anyone here. Googling records, without context, is useless. BB lost at the Jets. He then went to 9 Super Bowls (or whatever). Payton is AN ELITE HC and can pick whichever job he wants next year. The Bills would be appealing to him (not saying that the job will be open). If the Bills squander another year though they need to be thinking about it. I doubt that they will but Sean Payton is the answer to our offensive woes and swagger that has disappeared. I said that before the season and am sticking with that now.

 

I suspect that he takes over the Dallas job (where his family lives) but will have plenty of opportunties. If you think that he might be an oc somewhere you’re WAY less informed than I ever gave you credit for. 

 

You can't miss the playoffs 40% of the time with Drew Brees and be beyond reproach.

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34 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Again, this is one of those myths that fans heard once and now can’t let go of. It’s not true.

 

Studies have been done on this. We don’t have to guess anymore. Let’s take a look

 

Sean Clements (a data analyst an NFL team), conducted a study a few years ago. He found that establishing the run does not affect the passing game, or vice versa. 

 

spRCM8_YVQxyeRe6WwgZLh3qF3KulCrX7nCjI3Ll

 

The boxplot shows little correlation between volume running and an increase of success passing. In other words, running the ball does not keep the defense “honest”.

 

We also have Ben Baldwin, the economist who runs a lot of football numbers on Twitter, who showed that expected points on offensive DECREASES as the number of rushing attempts increases. Contrary to the belief running the ball will help to set up the pass and score. 

 

ppWycNBvX7iwXVp96CYxDt2k8ylbRuni4FtjPm28

 

Conclusion: What you believe is a myth. You’re that 84 year old grandpa that everyone rolls their eyes at because he keeps saying the team needs to bring back the old single wing formation.

 

 

Figured out? The offense is #1 in yards and #2 in points. 2 of the 3 losses featured an offense that had over 480 yards in the game. It is ludicrous to say the offense is figured out.

 

They are struggling in the redzone which is the true problem.

 

 

The Chiefs, Bengals, Vikings and Chargers all run the ball less than we do. This chart shows rushing attempts.

 

3-A64-C927-8165-4376-82-C2-4793-E017-A08

 

That's a whole lot of data without context. 

 

Your scatter plots have zero ability to give any useful details on a game to game basis. 

 

Had the Bills ran the ball more in the 2nd half against the Vikings, took more time off the clock, converted more short yardage 1st downs and won the game by a score of 27-17, the correlation of points to running attempts would have held up. But they would have won.

 

Is it really surprising that more running attempts take more time off the clock and result in fewer points? Ask the Atlanta Falcons about running the ball in second halves with leads. 

Edited by Motorin'
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2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

According to DVOA it still is.  If they aren't, why does it take good teams to have the Bills basically piss away myriad chances to win, have leads(2 of them double digit leads), and pretty much take miracles for these teams to win on the last possession by 3 points or less?  

 

A team who is also turning the ball over at an NFL leading rate.  

 

And in 2 of the losses they had nearly 500 yards of offense.  

 

Like what are you watching?

The Bills are very good at building a big lead quickly and making it hard for a majority of the teams to keep up.

 

Keep us in a tight game all it takes is 2 offensive stalls with (as of now) an injury depleted defense to get right back in it. Hyde and Poyer had the big plays locked down, Edmunds takes away part of the playing field and we are missing a huge part of what makes our defense so good. With the b team in, mistakes can and will be made, poor angles, missed tackles, going for ints instead of knocking passes down (mental lapses) and now an offense that is known to make mistakes and stall out puts more pressure on themselves and, well, you get what we have here...

 

Looking at some of the plays cover 1 puts up, it looks like there are some plays we don't get the proper spacing on, plays josh has not executed well all season and we keep calling them and arent improving on those fundamental issues, etc. These are part of the drivers of allowing games to be close and outer inability to put the games away. If you can't do this properly, you have to rely on hero ball to pull it out or lose it.

 

Sean preaches fundamentals, and there are fundamental coaching issues within the schemes, players and within the coaching ranks that hurt this team a lot. This is what will start and keep going the divide between offense vs defense, we do our job why can't you do yours...

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

That's a whole lot of data without context. 

 

Studies using league wide, year long or multi year long averages, provide THE context. It is the standard. The basis to which all analytics is predicated.

 

You wanting to use 1 game as an unfounded data point to overrule the standard is the absurd idea.

 

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6 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

The Bills are very good at building a big lead quickly and making it hard for a majority of the teams to keep up.

 

Keep us in a tight game all it takes is 2 offensive stalls with (as of now) an injury depleted defense to get right back in it. Hyde and Poyer had the big plays locked down, Edmunds takes away part of the playing field and we are missing a huge part of what makes our defense so good. With the b team in, mistakes can and will be made, poor angles, missed tackles, going for ints instead of knocking passes down (mental lapses) and now an offense that is known to make mistakes and stall out puts more pressure on themselves and, well, you get what we have here...

 

Looking at some of the plays cover 1 puts up, it looks like there are some plays we don't get the proper spacing on, plays josh has not executed well all season and we keep calling them and arent improving on those fundamental issues, etc. These are part of the drivers of allowing games to be close and outer inability to put the games away. If you can't do this properly, you have to rely on hero ball to pull it out or lose it.

 

Sean preaches fundamentals, and there are fundamental coaching issues within the schemes, players and within the coaching ranks that hurt this team a lot. This is what will start and keep going the divide between offense vs defense, we do our job why can't you do yours...

 

 

 

The Bills simply need to carry their first half game over to the second half and we likely won't lose another game.

Edited by Big Turk
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18 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

According to DVOA it still is.  If they aren't, why does it take good teams to have the Bills basically piss away myriad chances to win, have leads(2 of them double digit leads), and pretty much take miracles for these teams to win on the last possession by 3 points or less?  

 

A team who is also turning the ball over at an NFL leading rate.  With the entire starting secondary out...plus other starters.  There aren't many, if ANY, teams that would even be competitive under those circumstances, let alone up big and only losing due to mind numbing mistakes they are inflicting on themselves.

 

And in 2 of the losses they had nearly 500 yards of offense.  

 

Like what are you watching?

 

Sounds like you are one of these doom and gloom people who always sees the glass mostly empty. At the end of the day, you will be proven wrong in your assessment. Whether you will actually admit it or not is another thing.

Maybe, just maybe, DVOA isn't reliable.

 

Hey, if, IFFFFFF they turn it around and win the division, secure home field throughout AND make it to the super bowl, I'll gladly eat my crow. But I feel pretty confident that most if not all those things won't happen.

 

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2 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Maybe, just maybe, DVOA isn't reliable.

 

Hey, if, IFFFFFF they turn it around and win the division, secure home field throughout AND make it to the super bowl, I'll gladly eat my crow. But I feel pretty confident that most if not all those things won't happen.

 

 

You are right., They are going to finish 8-9. 😅🤣

 

You are bordering on troll territory at this point.

 

You been posting while out being chased by the Jersey Devil again??

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12 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

You laugh, but swamp squatch exists!!

 

 

I don't doubt it actually...Paranormal Caught On Camera and Mysteries and Monsters on Discovery+ is pretty eye opening to things that probably shouldn't exist but seemingly do...interestingly, the military seems to have some involvement in a lot of these which makes you wonder if they are somehow things created by them and put in various remote locations to do experiments with.

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On 11/14/2022 at 7:56 AM, BillMafia716ix said:

Maybe Singletary and Dorsey got some kind of beef going on. Maybe that’s why he didn’t see the ball the 2nd half.  If so, I side with Motor. 

I dont even like Singletary... but I would too.i would side with anyone over Dorsey

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48 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Maybe, just maybe, DVOA isn't reliable.

 

Hey, if, IFFFFFF they turn it around and win the division, secure home field throughout AND make it to the super bowl, I'll gladly eat my crow. But I feel pretty confident that most if not all those things won't happen.

 

Half of those won't happen as of the way we play now. No super bowl, no 1st seed, no division title at this point either.

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4 minutes ago, boyst said:

Half of those won't happen as of the way we play now. No super bowl, no 1st seed, no division title at this point either.

 

The good thing is those aren't based on how we play now...just like none of those things would have happened at this point in the season for any of the last 3 teams that won the SB if we were looking at it objectively after 10-12 games. KC lost 4 of 6 to go to 6-4, TB lost 3 of 4 to go to 7-5, including a 38-3 demolition job at the hands of the Saints, and Rams lost 3 straight to go to 7-4, including getting bombed by the 49ers 31-10.  In the end, it didn't matter how they were playing in week 10, 11 or 12.  Just like it won't matter with this team.

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On 11/14/2022 at 2:27 PM, LeGOATski said:

Has @john wawrowposted in this thread yet? I love when he brings his BS to the board and then gets all mad when people call him out on it.

 

The vaxx stuff never "nearly tore the team apart" but it was a story Wawrow tried to force down our throats and now he's doubling down. He's of the belief that if you write something down enough times, it becomes fact. That's the kind of journalist he is. He doesn't chase the TRUE story, he chases what he thinks SHOULD be the story. He knows it's the perfect time to hint at trouble right now (as the team hits a rough patch) because that's when he can get the most reaction from readers. Drama, drama, drama.... It just doesn't work as well when the team is winning.

 

No. The Vax stuff never tore the team apart. But it almost did, contributing heavily to the mid-season slump last year until Josh Allen finally put his foot down.

As for what I hinted at, there was one more hint this week on it. ... Still working on getting to the bottom of it.

 

I'm not mad, except for the fact I'm wasting my time responding to, checks name, really, leGoatski.

 

sigh.

 

Just following my instincts and what people tell me, to get to the truth. You're the one speculating on what I know and don't.

 

jw

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