Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦

[L Ron Burgundy]

7 hours ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

Open Source Intelligence Lists of equipment destroyed, damaged, abandoned and captured.

 

Something's up. The last few days there's been a spike in losses on both sides when it comes to tanks, apcs, and IFVs. Russia's got the initiative right now, so my guess is that there's a Russian tank attack going on. And the attack achieved some sort of success, because Ukraine is committing tank units to stop it. And Ukraine's counter attack had some kind of success, because their tank losses are about 1/3 Russia's, and Russian losses include captured vehicles.  Oryx's twitter has regular updates. 

 

All this coincides with reports of a big tank battle around Adiivka. So those reports are probably true. The last time Russia committed masses of armored vehicles to an offensive was against Vuhledar, and it was a disaster for them. Adiivka is about half way between Vuhledar and Bakhmut, so punching through Ukrainian lines there threatens both places.  It also makes sense for Russia, since the Russian Army operates most of their armored vehicles, while Wagner is mostly an artillery/infantry force of expendable shock troops.

 

So Wagner keeps grinding itself to bits in Bakhmut while the Russian Army smashes tank units into Ukrainian defenses to the South. Where Russia hopes to create a breakthrough that forces Ukraine to pull back to avoid encirclement. And where Russian offensives take advantage of developed, relatively secure lines of supply through the LPR/DPR. Basically a replay of what Russia achieved at Popasna last year, which forced Ukraine out of the fortresses of Lysychansk and Sevierodonetsk as well.

 

I guess I understand why Ukraine wants to fight it out where they are, even though my casualty averse western sensibilites think its nuts from time to time. They know the terrain. They've got strong fortifications.  They can't assume they'll get back any towns they abandon. And they assume any population they give to the Russians will be filter camped and deported to Russia, or subjected to forced assimilation backed by intimidation and violence.  

 

 

 

 

 

Apologies if mentioned but I saw in the Polish media Prigozev is taking Wagner out of Bakhmut.  Also, Russian army is further demoralized and resisting some orders.  More than normal for them.

[BillStime]

 

 

 

 

 

[Coffeesforclosers]

20 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Apologies if mentioned but I saw in the Polish media Prigozev is taking Wagner out of Bakhmut. 

 

Most of the headlines I could find on the subject indicate Wagner's still there.

 

20 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Also, Russian army is further demoralized and resisting some orders.  More than normal for them.

 

That's been going on for some time now unfortunately. The Russian army is horribly inefficient, but that doesn't make it ineffective. Moreover, Russian society is still largely resigned to their army being horribly inefficient, and is unwilling to make their leadership pay any kind of price for it for now.

 

It's a conventional war between mobilized nations who believe in their respective causes (or won't oppose them), whatever the logical merits of those causes are.  The war won't end until the sides either stop thinking they can win, or start thinking they will lose.  There's also always the chance some total ***** calamity occurs like France in 1940, but that doesn't seem likely.

[L Ron Burgundy]

2 hours ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

 

Most of the headlines I could find on the subject indicate Wagner's sill there.

 

 

Yeah heard it again today.  My Polish isn't great but they seem to be saying, maybe just a threat, that they WGner will be moving troops to Afrika.  Not sure if that meant current folks on the line or new recruits joining.  May be an empty threat to get more ammo/gear.

[Coffeesforclosers]

46 minutes ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Yeah heard it again today.  My Polish isn't great but they seem to be saying, maybe just a threat, that they WGner will be moving troops to Afrika.  Not sure if that meant current folks on the line or new recruits joining.  May be an empty threat to get more ammo/gear.

 

Huh. Interesting. Alright I'll keep an eye on this story. I don't read Polish so hopefully it'll filter through into media in a language I do read.

 

What's going on in Israel has been chewing up a lot of my current events time. But so far, Peter Zeihan's call that May will be pivotal month in Ukraine has lease on life. 

 

[L Ron Burgundy]

8 hours ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

 

Huh. Interesting. Alright I'll keep an eye on this story. I don't read Polish so hopefully it'll filter through into media in a language I do read.

 

What's going on in Israel has been chewing up a lot of my current events time. But so far, Peter Zeihan's call that May will be pivotal month in Ukraine has lease on life. 

 

I love the stories about Russians rebelling or killing officers or immediately surrendering.  The fact that Ukraine created a hotline so Russians can easily surrender is insane. 

[All_Pro_Bills]

1 hour ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

I love the stories about Russians rebelling or killing officers or immediately surrendering.  The fact that Ukraine created a hotline so Russians can easily surrender is insane. 

You do realize that during times of war that most of what comes out of either side about the conflict is propaganda?   

[Coffeesforclosers]

2 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

I love the stories about Russians rebelling or killing officers or immediately surrendering.  The fact that Ukraine created a hotline so Russians can easily surrender is insane. 

 

It's good news for sure, but don't echo chamber yourself inside a positive feedback loop.

 

The Quincy Institute has some pieces from the Realist perspective on how to resolve the war. They're at least measured in their tone and thoughtfully argued, though as usual you wonder about what evidence it's based on. George Beebe is alright.

 

[Doc]

3 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

I love the stories about Russians rebelling or killing officers or immediately surrendering.  The fact that Ukraine created a hotline so Russians can easily surrender is insane. 

 

1-800-FUK-PUTIN

[BillStime]

13 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Yeah heard it again today.  My Polish isn't great but they seem to be saying, maybe just a threat, that they WGner will be moving troops to Afrika.  Not sure if that meant current folks on the line or new recruits joining.  May be an empty threat to get more ammo/gear.

 

Google works wonders...

 

Putin’s Mercenary Prigozhin Shifts Focus After Ukraine Setbacks

• Wagner founder seen shifting attention to Africa operations
• Prigozhin also hints at political ambitions inside Russia

 

Wagner mercenaries 'look to refocus on Africa after suffering huge losses in Ukraine and Yevgeny Prigozhin's fall-out with Putin'

[L Ron Burgundy]

1 hour ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

You do realize that during times of war that most of what comes out of either side about the conflict is propaganda?   

Sure.  And pro Ukraine propaganda is extremely effective.   But there are plenty of recordings of soldiers surrendering and they are real.  You might be able to fake a few well but not hundreds and there are probably thousands now.  It's really absurd some of what's happening there.  It'd be funny if not for the very real war crimes.

 

I'm more interested in the cultural aspect of the war.  Differences in east vs west.  It's fascinating to me that Russia is holding their military together with duct tape because of corruption.   And that corruption is imbedded in the Russian psyche because of Communism (imo).

[BillStime]

So, when will Russia invade Finland?

 

 

[ChiGoose]

13 minutes ago, BillStime said:

So, when will Russia invade Finland?

 

 

Nah, they’re still probably scarred from The White Death last time they tried it. 

[Tommy Callahan]

13 minutes ago, ChiGoose said:

Nah, they’re still probably scarred from The White Death last time they tried it. 

and then ended up joining the Axis/Nazis till the end for more support against the Russians.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tiberius]

 

[B-Man]

 

 Amazing. 

 

They just won't "allow" any thought of peace.

 

Peace is “cynical”. 
 

Remember a year ago when stating the obvious fact that the US WANTED to prolong this war as long as they could was considered “Putin Propaganda?” 

 

Funny how those people don’t say dick now. 

 

.

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, B-Man said:

 

 Amazing. 

 

They just won't "allow" any thought of peace.

 

Peace is “cynical”. 
 

Remember a year ago when stating the obvious fact that the US WANTED to prolong this war as long as they could was considered “Putin Propaganda?” 

 

Funny how those people don’t say dick now. 

 

.

It's amazing how that didn't sound like what he said at all, almost like a purposeful twist of everything he was saying.

[B-Man]

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

It's amazing how that didn't sound like what he said at all, almost like a purposeful twist of everything he was saying.

 

 

Except for the part where he said exactly that.

 

But your attempt at spin was right on cue.

 

 

 

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

Except for the part where he said exactly that.

 

But your attempt at spin was right on cue.

 

 

 

Nowhere in that clip was there any mention of not allowing any thoughts of peace.

 

Seemed more like being cautious of any cease fire with Russia who is completely untrustworthy.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/07/russia-launches-strikes-in-ukraine-in-violation-of-self-declared-ceasefire

[sherpa]

I saw a report today from a source I trust that a significant amount of Russian aircraft lost have been the result of friendly fire. It was actually a shocking number, mostly helicopters, but I'm not going to post the actual figure because I have never seen a situation that produces such questionable, propaganda-ish news.

Still, it is a source I trust.

 

I do know that the ex Soviet Union and Russian pilots had absolutely no confidence in their ground based air defense's ability to separate  friend from foe and their greatest concern was being shot by their own defenses.

Ground based air defense is one area that the Russians have great capability, if not discernment, and that is why I have not been a fan of F-16's for them until they get some of resolution in that area.

Their air defenses, if not degraded by lack of maintenance, still provides an effective envelope for the eastern areas that are still in active conflict.