Possible misconception on scoring and defenses

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

There was a lot of chatter yesterday in numerous threads on how defenses have been bad. 

 

Forgot about the local reports who attend teams practices, where you hear that the defense is ahead of the offense.   
 

Year after year NFL scoring is up in September and early October.  

Why you ask?

After a month or so of game film teams are then better prepared to scheme against offensive plays and players after learning their tendencies.  

 

 

it’s not rocket science.  I would know I work with them.   
 

Edited September 28, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[North Buffalo]

In addition is the current RPO stuff driving defenses up a wall and do? new defenses need to be 2 deep at linebacker or at least have one capable of starting and rotate them regularly... it seems the Bills linebackers were gassed by the end of the game.  Not sure it was so much the D line but the fact that the linebackers were a step slow filing in and still needing to be able to cover.  Does every team need a Jamal Adams type safety/linebacker that can cover and thump depending on the play?

Edited September 28, 2020 by North Buffalo

[JMF2006]

John Krik had a piece in the Toronto Sun today.

 

You better score 30+ or you might lose.

 

At least 9 teams have scored 30+ and lost this year.

TAKE AWAYS

Bills’ Allen establishing himself as MVP candidate — and quite possibly the next Jim Kelly … Murray has tough day against Lions, who finally win again … Browns over .500

• Toronto Sun
• 28 Sep 2020

 

SCORING IN NFL IS RUNNING AMOK

Apparently, those cardboard fans we see in the stands at NFL games now play defence too. Everywhere.

NFL scoring is out of control. Winning point totals in last week’s games: 42, 40, 37, 35,

35, 34, 33, 33, 31, 31, 31, 30, 28, 26, 23 and 17.

Winning point totals this week, before Sunday night: 38, 36, 36, 36, 35, 34, 31, 31, 30,

28, 28, 26 and 21. (Cincinnati and Philadelphia played to a miserable 23-23 tie.)

Want to win in this season’s NFL? Better plan to score 30. At least 30. Nine teams so far in 2020 have scored 30-plus and lost.

In five games in each of the past two weeks, you had to score 35 — the equivalent of at least five touchdowns — if you wanted to win. Wow!

Scoring in the NFL already was on a record pace heading into Week 3, on 186 total touchdowns (14 more than the 2018 milestone) and 1,611 total points (55 more than the 2012 milestone). That’s 5.8 TDS and 50.3 points per game.

Through 14 of 16 games heading into Sunday night, teams in Week 3 were scoring touchdowns at the same rate (5.8 per game) and points at an even higher rate (51.0 per game). Incredible!

And you know what? I’m not sure I like it.

Some games, such as Dallas at Seattle, felt like an NBA all-star game — no defence whatsoever.

What’s more, these scoring derbies lengthen games. Which makes defences more tired. Which makes defenders make more mistakes and commit more fouls. Which piles on even more pressure on officials to throw a flag.

Games feel as if they’re entirely in the hands of all these gun-slinging QBS who are having field days so far. With everyone else on the field just trying to keep up.

 

QB Wilson, Seattle. See above.

QB Nick Foles, Chicago. Took over from Mitchell Trubisky and threw three late TDS to push the Bears past the Falcons.

PK Stephen Gostkowski,

Tennessee. Nailed all six fieldgoal attempts (the last two from 54 and 55 yards) to beat the Vikings.

QB Josh Allen, Buffalo. Another scintillating day, especially early and late in a wild comeback win over the visiting Rams.

WR Justin Jefferson,

Minnesota. Stefon Diggs’

dazzling rookie replacement caught seven passes for 175 yards and a TD.

 

Edited September 28, 2020 by JMF2006

[Kwai San]

6 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

In addition is the current RPO stuff driving defenses up a wall and do? new defenses need to be 2 deep at linebacker or at least have one capable of starting and rotate them regularly... it seems the Bills linebackers were gassed by the end of the game.  Not sure it was so much the D line but the fact that the linebackers were a step slow filing in and still needing to be able to cover.  Does every team need a Jamal Adams type safety/linebacker that can cover and thump depending on the play?

 

You would have to believe going into the prevent D like the Bills did wasn't the best of decisions.  Once the tide turned the Bills were lucky to escape with a win.  That and the fact that both LB's were held back a bit all week.  They were not up to full game endurance.  Hence the drop off by the LB's.  The Lambs were/are a dang good team.  I was shocked the Bills were up at the half like they were.

 

Go Bills!

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

12 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

You work with a Rocket Scientist ? Wow, that must be fun

 

quite.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

10 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

In addition is the current RPO stuff driving defenses up a wall and do? new defenses need to be 2 deep at linebacker or at least have one capable of starting and rotate them regularly... it seems the Bills linebackers were gassed by the end of the game.  Not sure it was so much the D line but the fact that the linebackers were a step slow filing in and still needing to be able to cover.  Does every team need a Jamal Adams type safety/linebacker that can cover and thump depending on the play?

 

Were the Rams players gassed playing in the same heat?  

Its not like the Bills went 3 and out, 3 and out 3 and out throughout the second half.  

 

The Bills were rotating players.  The Fox crew mentioned a few times. As well as being gassed) 

 

9 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

Scoring in the NFL already was on a record pace heading into Week 3, on 186 total touchdowns (14 more than the 2018 milestone) and 1,611 total points (55 more than the 2012 milestone). That’s 5.8 TDS and 50.3 points per game.

Through 14 of 16 games heading into Sunday night, teams in Week 3 were scoring touchdowns at the same rate (5.8 per game) and points at an even higher rate (51.0 per game). Incredible!

 

How many of those increased #'s are from Josh?        

[North Buffalo]

8 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

Were the Rams players gassed playing in the same heat?  

Its not like the Bills went 3 and out, 3 and out 3 and out throughout the second half.  

 

The Bills were rotating players.  The Fox crew mentioned a few times. As well as being gassed) 

 

 

How many of those increased #'s are from Josh?        

They were talking about the D line I thought, but maybe both and could be the one week of layoff after only playing one week and not having time to fully get in game shape.  But linebackers need to be so many things against these offenses.  PS The Rams looked gassed on the last drive by the Bills.  May have been a bit about the heat and not having pre-season and an aborted training camp.  This RPO stuff off 3 and 4 wide receiver sets appears to be driving defenses up a wall for those teams that can run it well.

Edited September 28, 2020 by North Buffalo

[mannc]

7 minutes ago, Jaraxxus said:

Mentioned it in another thread, have a look at the number of holding penalties through three weeks compared to last year.

I think this, plus the lack of crowd noise are the biggest factors.  It’s also possible that the lack of exhibition games somehow affects the defense more, but I’m not sure why that would be the case.

[UConn James]

It’s fast becoming a shootout league.

[Rochesterfan]

30 minutes ago, mannc said:

I think this, plus the lack of crowd noise are the biggest factors.  It’s also possible that the lack of exhibition games somehow affects the defense more, but I’m not sure why that would be the case.

 

Two main reasons the lack of preseason impacts Defense more:

 

1) Physicality- Defenses need the contact and the full blocking to work on things like run fits and most importantly tackling.  The lack of preseason games and even contact in practice means teams are not getting into good tackling position and are all a little slow in reacting - allowing big plays, more missed tackles than ever, and poor angles both on runs and in run fits/screens.

 

2) Preseason - the offenses were usually bland, but it gave film on certain players and play types teams wanted to run.  You got maybe 5-6 quarters of film on the offensive players and it helps teams gauge how to attack as the defenses ramp up for the season.

 

This year with no film on teams until game 1, no real contact in training camp (minus one partial scrimmage), and not a lot of contact during the week - I would think it will take about 4 weeks to make up for missed time and for teams to have film and new tendencies figured out.  
 

It is a crazy year, but everything that went into making it safe has made it wild.  
 

A final factor that has barely been discussed, but I think is having an impact is the Refs and how they are calling games.  As the NFL (for safety) is not having the Refs travel as a group, but putting together Ref pairings based upon their home location - the refs are not as familiar with each other are are calling far fewer penalties.  Not a bad thing, but the biggest change has been offensive holding calls being way down.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

16 minutes ago, UConn James said:

It’s fast becoming a shootout league.

 

The "Its a passing league" has been here for a while.  This is not breaking news.

 

Lack of camps and practices / scrimmages and at least 3 Preseason games has to factor in here.  

 

By late November we will see that the overall number will be down.   (That does not mean teams still won't be putting up 30 plus on really bad reams) 

fortunately enough the Bills have been one of those teams these past 3 weeks. 

Edited September 28, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[mannc]

27 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Two main reasons the lack of preseason impacts Defense more:

 

1) Physicality- Defenses need the contact and the full blocking to work on things like run fits and most importantly tackling.  The lack of preseason games and even contact in practice means teams are not getting into good tackling position and are all a little slow in reacting - allowing big plays, more missed tackles than ever, and poor angles both on runs and in run fits/screens.

 

2) Preseason - the offenses were usually bland, but it gave film on certain players and play types teams wanted to run.  You got maybe 5-6 quarters of film on the offensive players and it helps teams gauge how to attack as the defenses ramp up for the season.

 

This year with no film on teams until game 1, no real contact in training camp (minus one partial scrimmage), and not a lot of contact during the week - I would think it will take about 4 weeks to make up for missed time and for teams to have film and new tendencies figured out.  
 

It is a crazy year, but everything that went into making it safe has made it wild.  
 

A final factor that has barely been discussed, but I think is having an impact is the Refs and how they are calling games.  As the NFL (for safety) is not having the Refs travel as a group, but putting together Ref pairings based upon their home location - the refs are not as familiar with each other are are calling far fewer penalties.  Not a bad thing, but the biggest change has been offensive holding calls being way down.

I don’t know...none of this really makes sense to me. These guys all know how to tackle, and it’s almost entirely instinctual anyway. I think the most compelling explanation is simply that it’s a continuation of the trend of passing attacks getting better all the time and teams learning how to exploit the rule changes.  It just seems like all the best athletes are on offense these days...so many outstanding WRs and TEs, it’s almost impossible to list them...

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

There was a lot of chatter yesterday in numerous threads and how defenses have been bad. 

 

Forgot about the local reports who attend teams practices, where you hear that the defense is ahead of the offense.   
 

Year after year NFL scoring is up in September and early October.  

Why you ask?

After a month or so of game film teams are then better prepared to scheme against offensive plays and players after learning their tendencies.  

 

 

it’s not rocket science.  I would know I work with them.   
 

I agree.  It's too early to know what the offense is going to bring at you, so your defense often is not well prepared for what hits them.  By November, what teams are doing on offense has become clear, and defenses are prepared.   

[MAJBobby]

They are also not calling holding anymore unless it is “clear and obvious”. The NFL wants scoring up and that memo alone on Holding has greatly helped that

[UConn James]

4 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

The "Its a passing league" has been here for a while.  This is not breaking news.

 

Lack of camps and practices / scrimmages and at least 3 Preseason games has to factor in here.  

 

By late November we will see that the overall number will be down.   (That does not mean teams still won't be putting up 30 plus on really bad reams) 

fortunately enough the Bills have been one of those teams these past 3 weeks. 

I meant that as in not just a passing league. It’s becoming a shootout league reminiscent of the arena league and college football scoring. Games where it’s 62-58 and the like are not far off given the way the NFL keeps changing its rules in favor of offense / “protecting the players.”

 

It’s been this way for awhile, it seems, in the NFC Central division games with Stafford and Rogers’ lights-out passing numbers.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, UConn James said:

I meant that as in not just a passing league. It’s becoming a shootout league reminiscent of the arena league and college football scoring. Games where it’s 62-58 and the like are not far off given the way the NFL keeps changing its rules in favor of offense / “protecting the players.”

 

It’s been this way for awhile, it seems, in the NFC Central division games with Stafford and Rogers’ lights-out passing numbers.

Scoring is at an all time high. No argument there. 
 

But high scoring is a norm for September and because of what Covid has done to practices, scrimmages and no PS.  

[Rochesterfan]

6 hours ago, mannc said:

I don’t know...none of this really makes sense to me. These guys all know how to tackle, and it’s almost entirely instinctual anyway. I think the most compelling explanation is simply that it’s a continuation of the trend of passing attacks getting better all the time and teams learning how to exploit the rule changes.  It just seems like all the best athletes are on offense these days...so many outstanding WRs and TEs, it’s almost impossible to list them...

 

Look around the league - with no preseason- tackling everywhere is terrible.  I watched GB take some terrible angles and be overall slow to spots and it is like that across the league.

 

My guess is you will see defenses start to get better over the next couple of weeks as they work their way back and some scoring will go down.  It is not just Buffalo - defenses just are not good right now and the big differences isn’t the passing - it is the tackling everywhere is really bad.  
 

To me since it seems to be league wide and the difference is no preseason and less contact - that most likely has a big impact on those types of things.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

16 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Look around the league - with no preseason- tackling everywhere is terrible.  I watched GB take some terrible angles and be overall slow to spots and it is like that across the league.

 

My guess is you will see defenses start to get better over the next couple of weeks as they work their way back and some scoring will go down.  It is not just Buffalo - defenses just are not good right now and the big differences isn’t the passing - it is the tackling everywhere is really bad.  
 

To me since it seems to be league wide and the difference is no preseason and less contact - that most likely has a big impact on those types of things.

 

It certainly adds to it. 

 

Defenses will adjust (the good ones) 

[NoSaint]

On 9/28/2020 at 6:15 AM, North Buffalo said:

In addition is the current RPO stuff driving defenses up a wall and do? new defenses need to be 2 deep at linebacker or at least have one capable of starting and rotate them regularly... it seems the Bills linebackers were gassed by the end of the game.  Not sure it was so much the D line but the fact that the linebackers were a step slow filing in and still needing to be able to cover.  Does every team need a Jamal Adams type safety/linebacker that can cover and thump depending on the play?

it would be why that type of player is so valuable and he want for a pretty penny despite the headaches 

 

I think we are about to see a heavy dose of posters learning about what it takes to win 13 games instead of 9 in the nfl and actually paying attention to the nuance between our roster and other top ones now that it doesn’t feel like we are miles away anymore 

16 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Look around the league - with no preseason- tackling everywhere is terrible.  I watched GB take some terrible angles and be overall slow to spots and it is like that across the league.

 

My guess is you will see defenses start to get better over the next couple of weeks as they work their way back and some scoring will go down.  It is not just Buffalo - defenses just are not good right now and the big differences isn’t the passing - it is the tackling everywhere is really bad.  
 

To me since it seems to be league wide and the difference is no preseason and less contact - that most likely has a big impact on those types of things.

Yes and no on the preseason effect.

 

a guy like Edmunds might have racked up less than a games worth of snaps in preseason. Some elf but a month into the season it’s hard to say a handful of drives against vanilla offenses going less than 110% is a game changer still

[mannc]

23 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

They are also not calling holding anymore unless it is “clear and obvious”. The NFL wants scoring up and that memo alone on Holding has greatly helped that

Holding calls were down 78% in week 1, but I have not seen the numbers since then, have you?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

29 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

it would be why that type of player is so valuable and he want for a pretty penny despite the headaches 

 

I think we are about to see a heavy dose of posters learning about what it takes to win 13 games instead of 9 in the nfl and actually paying attention to the nuance between our roster and other top ones now that it doesn’t feel like we are miles away anymore 

Yes and no on the preseason effect.

 

a guy like Edmunds might have racked up less than a games worth of snaps in preseason. Some elf but a month into the season it’s hard to say a handful of drives against vanilla offenses going less than 110% is a game changer still

 

The (returning) Vets don't necessarily need the reps.  

 

New players do though.  Vets and rooks. 

[Rochesterfan]

30 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

it would be why that type of player is so valuable and he want for a pretty penny despite the headaches 

 

I think we are about to see a heavy dose of posters learning about what it takes to win 13 games instead of 9 in the nfl and actually paying attention to the nuance between our roster and other top ones now that it doesn’t feel like we are miles away anymore 

Yes and no on the preseason effect.

 

a guy like Edmunds might have racked up less than a games worth of snaps in preseason. Some elf but a month into the season it’s hard to say a handful of drives against vanilla offenses going less than 110% is a game changer still

Agree - he would most likely only rack up 3 quarters of a game, but it would be at least 2 or 3 teams going 100% and it helps players get used to the speed and physicality.  It would also allow the front 7 time to meld together and understand strengths and weaknesses.  Right now they are not playing as a unit, but more like a group of individuals.  They also have several new guys in the D-line rotation and very little time they have physically played together to get a feeling for each other.

 

What I see - especially in the Rams game - is the DT is getting blocked 1 on 1 and allowing the guard to get a body on Edmunds.  His greatest weakness is fighting off blocks and maintaining the gap and he struggled big time with that against LA.

 

The Jets did very little running - so they barely worked on it and he was out against the Dolphins.  I think that lack of prep really hurt in this game.  The Bills in general have really not had to stop a running attack since last year and I think it showed.

 

It shows around the league where defensive teams are just not fluid early in the year.

Edited September 29, 2020 by Rochesterfan

[MAJBobby]

51 minutes ago, mannc said:

Holding calls were down 78% in week 1, but I have not seen the numbers since then, have you?

Think what I saw or heard in week 1 and 2 they are down 73%.  League sent a memo this year saying it has to be clear and obvious.  

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

The (returning) Vets don't necessarily need the reps.  

 

New players do though.  Vets and rooks. 

very few in that number and a lot of them played with McD before.

 

i get it, there’s some impact but less substantial then I believe most think