The Odds of Dying from COVID-19

[RocCityRoller]

It is August 22, 2020. The great scourge of COVID-19 has roamed the lands for 6+ months.

 

One thing COVID-19 has shown to be true is a terrible understanding of statistics by the common Joe/Jill in the USA.

We may want to focus on STEM and not 'White Rage' in our school districts, but I digress. I want to provide facts.

 

My stats are from the CDC as of 8/22/2020, except US Population

 

US Population: 330,000,000 (Google) (it's between 328.5 and 331 million depending on source, I round up to account for the undocumented)

Tests Reported: 74,830,464 (CDC) - (there have been 74.8 million test results submitted to the CDC)

Positive Tests: 6,633,000 (CDC) - (of the 74.8 million tests submitted, 6.6 million have had positive results)

COVID 19 Deaths: 175,000 - (the CDC reports 174,645, I rounded up for folks who may have died prior to testing)

 

So according to the CDC,  between 1 in 4 and 1 in 5 Americans has been tested for COVID-19. This is the media narrative.

74.8/330 = 22.7% of the population tested.

 

But we know that a number of people have been tested twice or more. We also know a lot of tests were rushed and yield false positives (shows an infection when one does not exist) .

 

74.8 million test results have been logged with the CDC. Some people have been tested 2,3,4 or more times. Still 74.8 million tests have been conducted in the USA. Show me a country with more test results turned in. Is it possible that with more tests conducted more come back positive? What a concept! A country of 330 million has more COVID positives than a country of 60 million, no way!

 

The news blasts: 'USA leads the world in Coronavirus cases'. We are 3rd in population, and 1st in testing. What a wonder.

 

The only European country with a population greater than the 74.8 million tests done in the USA is Germany (83.2). Have 74.8 million tests been collected in Germany? No.

 

74.8 million tests are more than the entire populations of countries like the UK (66.6), France (66.9) or Italy (60.3). It's no wonder our 'confirmed COVID-19' cases are higher than any other country. We have more people, and more people are being tested than any other country.

 

The USA is way ahead of the entire world on testing. We are the 3rd most populous country, and have the most vigorous testing.

Only China and India have more people. Have they conducted 74.8 million tests? Show me the proof. Indonesia is  close 4th, where are their numbers?

 

Let's go with a false Domesday scenario where tests are 1:1 to a person.

This would mean 6.63 million people have been positively identified as infected with Coronavirus.

6.63 million of 74.8 million is an 8.9% infection rate. That seems bad.

 

But that is the number of those tested, not of the general population.

Most of the 22% of people tested are at high risk (medical workers), or show symptoms (very sick).

Even then it is less than 1 in 10 TESTED. (those at high risk or with symptoms)

 

For the general population we need to look at positives vs the population.

6.63 million positives/ 330 general population = 2.0%

2 percent of the USA population has tested positive for Coronavirus. That includes 'positives' like Matt Stafford.

 

The actual chance of an American having COVID-19 lies in between these numbers.

Between 2.0% and 8.9% of Americans have been infected with Coronavirus.

MOST OF THOSE HAVE NO SYMPTOMS

 

175k is the number of COVID confirmed deaths. It's actually 174.7k, but I will give some allowance to under reporting of deaths early due to COVID-19

when testing wasn't available, but COVID-19 was also isolated to a few cities. It seems a fair trade.

 

175k is a bad number. The flu and related illnesses from flu, like pneumonia kill 40-70k every year. COVID-19 is more dangerous than the flu for those that have it.

But then again we do not close down society for the flu.

 

2.6% of those who test positive for COVID-19 die of COVID-19 and related illnesses. This is @10x higher than the normal flu.

 

But let's put that into perspective

0.23% of those tested for COVID-19 die from it

0.053% of the general population are dying from COVID-19

 

1 half of one tenth of one percent of Americans are dying of COVID.

Six months into the 'Panademic' and your odds of dying by Covid-19 are 175,000 out of 330,000,000 or 1 in 1886.

You are 10x more likely to die in a car crash, fall or suicide than COVID-19

You are more likely to die by drowning or in a fire than by COVID-19.

 

Everyone dies.

The government can't fix it, and we don't shut down society for any of the below causes:

 

https://www.nsc.org/work-safety/tools-resources/injury-facts/chart

Your odds of dying by:

Heart Disease and Cancer	1 in 7
Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease	1 in 28
Intentional Self-harm	1 in 95
Unintentional Poisoning by and Exposure to Noxious Substances	1 in 96
Motor Vehicle Crash	1 in 114
Fall	1 in 127
Assault by Firearm	1 in 370
Car Occupant	1 in 645
Pedestrian Incident	1 in 647
Motorcycle Rider Incident	1 in 985
Unintentional Drowning and Submersion	1 in 1,188
Exposure to Fire, Flames or Smoke	1 in 1,498
Choking from Inhalation and Ingestion of Food	1 in 3,461

Edited August 23, 2020 by RocCityRoller

[fansince88]

8 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

It is August 22, 2020. The great scourge of COVID-19 has roamed the lands for 6+ months.

 

One thing COVID-19 has shown to be true is a terrible understanding of statistics by the common Joe/Jill in the USA.

We may want to focus on STEM and not 'White Rage' in our school districts, but I digress. I want to provide facts.

 

My stats are from the CDC as of 8/22/2020, except US Population

 

US Population: 330,000,000 (Google) (it's between 328.5 and 331 million depending on source, I round up to account for the undocumented)

Tests Reported: 74,830,464 (CDC) - (there have been 74.8 million test results submitted to the CDC)

Positive Tests: 6,633,000 (CDC) - (of the 74.8 million tests submitted, 6.6 million have had positive results)

COVID 19 Deaths: 175,000 - (the CDC reports 174,645, I rounded up for folks who may have died prior to testing)

 

So according to the CDC,  between 1 in 4 and 1 in 5 Americans has been tested for COVID-19. This is the media narrative.

74.8/330 = 22.7% of the population tested.

 

But we know that a number of people have been tested twice or more. We also know a lot of tests were rushed and yield false positives (shows an infection when one does not exist) .

 

74.8 million test results have been logged with the CDC. Some people have been tested 2,3,4 or more times. Still 74.8 million tests have been conducted in the USA. Show me a country with more test results turned in. Is it possible that with more tests conducted more come back positive? What a concept! A country of 330 million has more COVID positives than a country of 60 million, no way!

 

The news blasts: 'USA leads the world in Coronavirus cases'. We are 3rd in population, and 1st in testing. What a wonder.

 

The only European country with a population greater than the 74.8 million tests done in the USA is Germany (83.2). Have 74.8 million tests been collected in Germany? No.

 

74.8 million tests are more than the entire populations of countries like the UK (66.6), France (66.9) or Italy (60.3). It's no wonder our 'confirmed COVID-19' cases are higher than any other country. We have more people, and more people are being tested than any other country.

 

The USA is way ahead of the entire world on testing. We are the 3rd most populous country, and have the most vigorous testing.

Only China and India have more people. Have they conducted 74.8 million tests? Show me the proof. Indonesia is  close 4th, where are their numbers?

 

Let's go with a false Domesday scenario where tests are 1:1 to a person.

This would mean 6.63 million people have been positively identified as infected with Coronavirus.

6.63 million of 74.8 million is an 8.9% infection rate. That seems bad.

 

But that is the number of those tested, not of the general population.

Most of the 22% of people tested are at high risk (medical workers), or show symptoms (very sick).

Even then it is less than 1 in 10 TESTED. (those at high risk or with symptoms)

 

For the general population we need to look at positives vs the population.

6.63 million positives/ 330 general population = 2.0%

2 percent of the USA population has tested positive for Coronavirus. That includes 'positives' like Matt Stafford.

 

The actual chance of an American having COVID-19 lies in between these numbers.

Between 2.0% and 8.9% of Americans have been infected with Coronavirus.

MOST OF THOSE HAVE NO SYMPTOMS

 

175k is the number of COVID confirmed deaths. It's actually 174.7k, but I will give some allowance to under reporting of deaths early due to COVID-19

when testing wasn't available, but COVID-19 was also isolated to a few cities. It seems a fair trade.

 

175k is a bad number. The flu and related illnesses from flu, like pneumonia kill 40-70k every year. COVID-19 is more dangerous than the flu for those that have it.

But then again we do not close down society for the flu.

 

2.6% of those who test positive for COVID-19 die of COVID-19 and related illnesses. This is @10x higher than the normal flu.

 

But let's put that into perspective

0.23% of those tested for COVID-19 die from it

0.053% of the general population are dying from COVID-19

 

1 half of one tenth of one percent of Americans are dying of COVID.

Six months into the 'Panademic' and your odds of dying by Covid-19 are 175,000 out of 330,000,000 or 1 in 1886.

You are 10x more likely to die in a car crash, fall or suicide than COVID-19

You are more likely to die by drowning or in a fire than by COVID-19.

 

Everyone dies.

The government can't fix it, and we don't shut down society for any of the below causes:

 

https://www.nsc.org/work-safety/tools-resources/injury-facts/chart

Your odds of dying by:

Heart Disease and Cancer	1 in 7
Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease	1 in 28
Intentional Self-harm	1 in 95
Unintentional Poisoning by and Exposure to Noxious Substances	1 in 96
Motor Vehicle Crash	1 in 114
Fall	1 in 127
Assault by Firearm	1 in 370
Car Occupant	1 in 645
Pedestrian Incident	1 in 647
Motorcycle Rider Incident	1 in 985
Unintentional Drowning and Submersion	1 in 1,188
Exposure to Fire, Flames or Smoke	1 in 1,498
Choking from Inhalation and Ingestion of Food	1 in 3,461

Nice work. Thanks. 

[SoCal Deek]

Your stats are a bit all over the place but in general spot on. The really important graph is the one from the CDC showing the deaths by age group. We now KNOW that if you are under 65 you have very very little chance of dying from Covid 19. And, just as importantly, it’s a condition that you get over. It’s not like cancer, heart disease, or other chronic ailments.

[BillsFanNC]

The underlying subliminal messaging from certain media and politicians around covid seems to suggest that we can't get back to even a semi-normal society until the risk of contracting covid is essentially zero. It has become insane. Ive got news...the moment that life begins you assume risk of getting sick and dying from something. Everyone.

[TBBills]

Here we go again. What about all the long term effects, heart problems, brain damage, organ problems. You do know Covid affects the whole body and not just the lungs, right?

 

Their is a reason you posted this here b/c you know it's a stupid thing to post and this is the only  sub-forum where people can post stupid topics, fact.

Edited August 23, 2020 by TBBills

[SoCal Deek]

8 minutes ago, TBBills said:

Here we go again. What about all the long term effects, heart problems, brain damage, organ problems. You do know Covid affects the whole body and not just the lungs, right?

 

Their is a reason you posted this here b/c you know it's a stupid thing to post and this is the only  sub-forum where people can post stupid topics, fact.

What?!!!! How in the world do you know ANYTHING about ‘long term’ effects of a virus that is less than a year old? Geez man, think for a second before calling other people stupid. 

[DFT]

Don’t you try to bring facts, common sense and logic into a conversation that’s only supposed to be about fear, panic and political aspirations!  

 

How. Dare. You.
 

 

[bilzfancy]

28 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

What?!!!! How in the world do you know ANYTHING about ‘long term’ effects of a virus that is less than a year old? Geez man, think for a second before calling other people stupid. 

Liberals hate facts, like that kids have less then 1 in a thousand chance of dying from covid19, but let's keep schools closed cause if not they'll be death factories. Kids have a far greater chance of dying from the flu.

[snafu]

10 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

One thing COVID-19 has shown to be true is a terrible understanding of statistics by the common Joe/Jill in the USA.

 

^^^^ this is me. 

 

 

[TBBills]

41 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

What?!!!! How in the world do you know ANYTHING about ‘long term’ effects of a virus that is less than a year old? Geez man, think for a second before calling other people stupid. 

That is what I am talking about, you dont understand but we already know about some of the problems. 

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, TBBills said:

That is what I am talking about, you dont understand but we already know about some of the problems. 

Who’s this ‘we’ you’re referring to? You and Uncle Joe?

[TBBills]

14 minutes ago, bilzfancy said:

Liberals hate facts, like that kids have less then 1 in a thousand chance of dying from covid19, but let's keep schools closed cause if not they'll be death factories. Kids have a far greater chance of dying from the flu.

See another person that decides to make it side vs side, saying Liberals in a topic that shouldnt be about politics. Here comes the stupidity from PPP waking up in the morning.

TALK ABOUT THE VIRUS NOT THE POLITICS!

YOu try to talk about something that has nothing to do with democrats or republicans and yet some lunatic tries to make it into that. Which is why posting this thread with in here shows the OP knew what he was saying is wrong.

Edited August 23, 2020 by TBBills

[GG]

54 minutes ago, TBBills said:

Here we go again. What about all the long term effects, heart problems, brain damage, organ problems. You do know Covid affects the whole body and not just the lungs, right?

 

Their is a reason you posted this here b/c you know it's a stupid thing to post and this is the only  sub-forum where people can post stupid topics, fact.

 

What about increased suicides, overdoses, preventative treatments, spousal abuse, child abuse?

 

Did those suddenly vanish?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

16 minutes ago, bilzfancy said:

Liberals hate facts, like that kids have less then 1 in a thousand chance of dying from covid19, but let's keep schools closed cause if not they'll be death factories. Kids have a far greater chance of dying from the flu.

 

...sure we need to be concerned and take necessary measures ( I do at age 67), but I have a guy in our office who is WAY over the top.....shame that he lives his life in such paranoia at age 35...says "people my age have strokes because of Covid-19".......drives to work daily as sole vehicle occupant wearing mask.....with 30 folks in our 12,000 sq ft office, it is 400 sq ft per person, well within social distancing guidelines and at least 6 sanitizing stations set up...office cubicles are 120 sq ft.....yet he sits at his desk 8 hours a day wearing a mask.....goes outside on breaks for a smoke and distances himself from colleagues by 12' OUTSIDE.....opens all doors with his knee or elbow.....girlfriend's job allows working remotely...she has not been outside their apartment since MARCH.....cannot imagine living under such paranoia, but "to each his own" I guess.....

Edited August 23, 2020 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[TBBills]

4 minutes ago, GG said:

 

What about increased suicides, overdoses, preventative treatments, spousal abuse, child abuse?

 

Did those suddenly vanish?

Look doing it again ^ 

 

More stupid bull#### when you try to talk about Covid. Honestly all that ***** is human choice unlike a virus which doesn't care about what choices you make.

3 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...sure we need to be concerned and take necessary measures ( I do at age 67), but I have a guy in our office who is WAY over the top.....shame that he lives his life in such paranoia at age 35...says "people my age have strokes because of Covid-19".......drives to work daily as sole vehicle occupant wearing mask.....with 30 folks in our 12,000 sq ft office, it is 400 sq ft per person, well within social distancing guidelines and at least 6 sanitizing stations set up...office cubicles are 120 sq ft.....yet he sits at his desk 8 hours a day wearing a mask.....goes outside on breaks for a smoke and distances himself from colleagues by 12' OUTSIDE.....opens all doors with his knee or elbow.....girlfriend's job allows working remotely...she has not been outside their apartment since MARCH.....cannot imagine living under such paranoia, but "to each his own" I guess.....

Exactly people think in both extremes "It's no big deal" or "I need to stay away from everything" 

 

That is the problem with this, no middle ground.

Edited August 23, 2020 by TBBills

[GG]

5 minutes ago, TBBills said:

Look doing it again ^ 

 

More stupid bull#### when you try to talk about Covid. Honestly all that ***** is human choice unlike a virus which doesn't care about what choices you make.

 

 

Glad that you think that people who die from other causes don't matter.  Another grave dancer.  Not surprised.

[BillsFanNC]

10 minutes ago, TBBills said:

 

TALK ABOUT THE VIRUS NOT THE POLITICS!

 

 

Ok,  then bring it. Let's talk about the virus and what we know currently from the literature. No media articles, let's discuss the peer reviewed literature. 

[TBBills]

5 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Glad that you think that people who die from other causes don't matter.  Another grave dancer.  Not surprised.

See now you make up lies and attack people for no reason other than you were shown to be stupid with what you said. 

 

It's sad you would do things like that but that is the world we live in now. When you don't like someone making you look bad just lie and try to slander them.

 

You are disgusting at a human being to even say something like that.

2 minutes ago, BillsFanNC said:

 

Ok,  then bring it. Let's talk about the virus and what we know currently from the literature. No media articles, let's discuss the peer reviewed literature. 

Ok go ahead and show me the literature and lets do this. Show me the literature that shows no long term effects of the virus. 

 

I will go ahead and link you to an actually fact and information thread on this virus for anything you might have problems with so you can see actual people who specialize in virus and disease. See how that thread doesn't have to hide in PPP b/c it isn't crazy or misinformation. 

 

 

Edited August 23, 2020 by TBBills

[snafu]

15 minutes ago, GG said:

 

What about increased suicides, overdoses, preventative treatments, spousal abuse, child abuse?

 

Did those suddenly vanish?

 

Flu deaths vanished in March and April. 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

6 minutes ago, TBBills said:

Look doing it again ^ 

 

More stupid bull#### when you try to talk about Covid. Honestly all that ***** is human choice unlike a virus which doesn't care about what choices you make.

Exactly people think in both extremes "It's no big deal" or "I need to stay away from everything" 

 

That is the problem with this, no middle ground.

 

....there has been, is and will always be the combative, non-compliance segment of society......Big bawls, bravado, "it ain't gonna get me", if the government says so I do the opposite" et al.....that segment, a/k/a the Anti Crowd" , has, does and will forever continue to exist period.....what's worse is that those in that segment who contract Covid-19 and recover say, "see, no big deal...I'm fine........no worse than a bad cold or the flu" yada yada.....you'll never fix that IMO.....