There should be a national dialogue in getting back to work

[plenzmd1]

20 hours ago, shoshin said:

UK getting back to work. 
 

Funny, had the CBS news on this morning in the background, they showed only a portion of this clip that it sound like FULL lockdown was being continued in the UK..despicable

12 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

People will fly, slowly at first  but surely. ( stop calling me Shirley lol..) Just like they did after 9/11, 

I would fly today..the HEPA filtration systems in planes are awesome..and i was on a flight to Vegas with wife and MIL about 3 days after airports opened up again 9/11. Had something like a 8:30 AM flight, got in line for security at 5:30 AM..still barely made it through on time.

 

BTW, you may remember way back in 04, a specific BA flight between Dulles and Heathrow, and vice versa, kept being cancelled due to security concerns. I needed to get back and forth to London, and i stayed on those figuring what flight(s) would ever be safer? But, on the fiorst on 223 to IAD, hit a massive airpocket over the coast of Ireland, the whole of the plane, including me, figured it ws a bomb and we were goners. Never forget it

4 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

I got an email last week from my wife with the subject line HOLY CRAP. She found round trip tickets to St Thomas (we rent a house in St John on a regular basis) for $337 with only one stop in Miami. She was very ready to pull the trigger. Does anyone know if the USVI beaches are open?  ?

We are schedule for a euro trip with friends in August, figuring that will not happen, so prolly going the beach way as well. 

2 hours ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

It's stunning to me how many people hate him simply because he isn't falling in line with leftist desires to crush the economy. Just stunning.

 

 

I thought he was a toad before this, but havegrownn to like him in the last 8 weeks.

[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

Gov. Polis ‘very hopeful’ state’s campsites will reopen soon.

 

 

Camping is social distancing.

 

 

 

[Chef Jim]

2 hours ago, GG said:

 

The old Toyota/GM JV facility in Fremont.   He did get a nice deal on a full assembly & stamping plant in one spot.  But he also struck some nice deals to equip his state of the art manufacturing.   That was a major part of the early delays, because of the automation on the assembly line.  It's one of very few facilities where the entire car is built in a single facility (except the battery)

Sorry. It was a NUMMI so I was close. LOL

2 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

I disagree. Some will not fly, others most definitely will. People take the NY subway every day, for example. For me personally, as soon as I can fly somewhere to get on a beach I will do so. I don’t think I’m the only one. No middle passenger and it’s fine. Turn the air overhead on blast and wipe everything down ( which I’ve done for years anyway). Instant testing is a pipe dream at the moment, and probably for a long time. 

Chef, I’ve been checking similar fights to STT ( though I usually stay on Sapphire Beach). Prices are decent right now. Most recent news I’ve seen is that USVI is planning for a June 1 reopening to tourists if all goes well. Beaches are open now I believe but not hotels for tourists and no flights have resumed yet. I’m expecting no middle seat passengers and perhaps some type of test before boarding stateside. Our usual is St Maarten but I think they might be closed down longer than USVI. 

As long as the beaches are open in St John I don’t care. We don’t do much else while we are there anyway. 

[B-Man]

#RESIST: California Churches Revolt! Will Open Despite State, Local Orders.

 

[1B4IDye]

 

 

[dpberr]

In Pennsylvania, the governor is threatening to pull liquor licenses and funding for the counties planning to defy the state reopening "sequence."  I reside in a county that is preparing a plan to slowly winch up the middle finger to said sequence.  

 

https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/wolf-threatens-funding-license-cuts-if-counties-move-to-reopen-in-pa-without-his-approval.html

 

https://www.ldnews.com/story/news/2020/05/11/gov-wolf-punches-back-consequences-going-yellow-too-soon/3110487001/

[Magox]

Hoo boy

 

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, dpberr said:

In Pennsylvania, the governor is threatening to pull liquor licenses and funding for the counties planning to defy the state reopening "sequence."  I reside in a county that is preparing a plan to slowly winch up the middle finger to said sequence.  

 

https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/wolf-threatens-funding-license-cuts-if-counties-move-to-reopen-in-pa-without-his-approval.html

 

https://www.ldnews.com/story/news/2020/05/11/gov-wolf-punches-back-consequences-going-yellow-too-soon/3110487001/

Wolf is a full bag of *****.

 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

nevermind

Edited May 11, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[GG]

Funny how the scaredycats who warn that positive cases are still rising in some places, never cite the CO and GA statistics, who opened 2 weeks ago.  

 

Shouldn't they be spiking like mad by now?

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

Funny how the scaredycats who warn that positive cases are still rising in some places, never cite the CO and GA statistics, who opened 2 weeks ago.  

 

Shouldn't they be spiking like mad by now?

 

But there are still people saying that GA's spiking.  When they are shown the numbers from the GDPH, literally, they shrug.

 

Apparently, following data is very passe.  But, if NPR has a story, well ...

[GG]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

But there are still people saying that GA's spiking.  When they are shown the numbers from the GDPH, literally, they shrug.

 

Apparently, following data is very passe.  But, if NPR has a story, well ...

Especially if you take a deeper look into where the growth has been outside NYC, and it's still the latency of the related outbreaks in CT, NJ, MA and PA.  

 

Everywhere else it's relatively quiet. 

[Foxx]

good ol' sunshine for that Vitamin D.  

[shoshin]

2 hours ago, GG said:

Funny how the scaredycats who warn that positive cases are still rising in some places, never cite the CO and GA statistics, who opened 2 weeks ago.  

 

Shouldn't they be spiking like mad by now?

No. Exponential case growth wouldn’t work that quickly if it is going to catch. Two weeks would just be 1-2 rounds of expansion. If R0 is above 1.2 or so, you’d give it 4-6 weeks to declare things are going well. 

[GG]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

No. Exponential case growth wouldn’t work that quickly if it is going to catch. Two weeks would just be 1-2 rounds of expansion. If R0 is above 1.2 or so, you’d give it 4-6 weeks to declare things are going well. 

That would be the case in the initial outbreak, not something that's been festering for months.  You wouldn't see a continual decline over the past 2 weeks.  

[shoshin]

7 hours ago, GG said:

That would be the case in the initial outbreak, not something that's been festering for months.  You wouldn't see a continual decline over the past 2 weeks.  

 

Yes you might. The newly infected may only just be hitting the case count. I'm noting that only time will tell how well we are doing. So far Georgia looks like it's on a slight downtrend over the last month, which is good. 

 

 

Germany does a way better job than us on testing and measuring and they have seen their rate of transmission (not necessarily case counts remarkably yet) go up starting this week 3 weeks after opening. They are now on a razor's edge where their R0 is creeping to the danger zone. Use them as the model of reopening. 

 

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by shoshin

[Trump_is_Mentally_fit]

Coronavirus Live Updates: Fauci to Warn of ‘Needless Suffering and Death’ if States Open Too Soon

The United States’ top infectious disease expert plans to testify at a Senate hearing that moving too quickly to ease restrictions could undermine the country’s quest to return to normalcy.

RIGHT NOW

The New York Times will be providing live coverage of the Senate hearing at 10 a.m. Eastern.

“The major message that I wish to convey to the Senate HLP committee tomorrow is the danger of trying to open the country prematurely,” he wrote. “If we skip over the checkpoints in the guidelines to ‘Open America Again,’ then we risk the danger of multiple outbreaks throughout the country. This will not only result in needless suffering and death, but would actually set us back on our quest to return to normal.”

 

It is a message starkly at odds with the “things are looking up” argument that President Trump has been trying to put out: that states are ready to reopen and the pandemic is under control.

[shoshin]

1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

Coronavirus Live Updates: Fauci to Warn of ‘Needless Suffering and Death’ if States Open Too Soon

The United States’ top infectious disease expert plans to testify at a Senate hearing that moving too quickly to ease restrictions could undermine the country’s quest to return to normalcy.

RIGHT NOW

The New York Times will be providing live coverage of the Senate hearing at 10 a.m. Eastern.

 

I'm not sure it's needless. We cannot stay closed. 

 

Most states are ready for some reopening, albiet cautiously and with good distancing guidelines in place. I look at Philly, Boston, Chicago and obviously NYC and see a different situation calling for some stricter rules but most of the US doesn't need to be in lockdown anymore and should try to open up and see what's happening. GA is the test case at one extreme and lots of more rural NE areas are another, non-NE cities are another, and the NE cities are another. It's an experiment for sure. We don't know how it will go.  

[GG]

2 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

Yes you might. The newly infected may only just be hitting the case count. I'm noting that only time will tell how well we are doing. So far Georgia looks like it's on a slight downtrend over the last month, which is good. 

 

 

Germany does a way better job than us on testing and measuring and they have seen their rate of transmission (not necessarily case counts remarkably yet) go up starting this week 3 weeks after opening. They are now on a razor's edge where their R0 is creeping to the danger zone. Use them as the model of reopening. 

 

 

 

Lazy journalism.   Funny how Germany's numbers are trending now, and everyone is focusing on German health authorities sounding the alarm that estimated transmission rate is moving above R1.1.   Of course that was the only thing picked from the German report, which is chockfull of data and has other statistics that contradict the worrisome trend that the virus is on the rebound.   Little things like actual infection rates and hospitalizations, which continue to decline:

 

 

My biggest problem with the R coefficient is that it's an estimate based on dubious data.  How many times have all the models that were based on that mythical R -value needed to be revised, because they were woefully wrong?  I'm not going to impugn the academics' motives, because they're trying their best given the information.  But, we also have to recognize that their shading is always to the negative, because there's no penalty to them for erring on the downside.  If you add their role in advising public policy, there's a true disincentive to be more optimistic in their modeling.

 

That's why you continue to see a more negative slant from academia, despite what the actual numbers say.  And the press eats it up, without truly examining the numbers.