Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[Punching Bag]

Imagine being shopkeeper who told customers you needed to wear a mask to shop and one of the militant anti-mask protesters want to buy something....

[Punching Bag]

2 held in Los Angeles store fight over not wearing masks

https://santamariatimes.com/news/state-and-regional/2-held-in-los-angeles-store-fight-over-not-wearing-masks/article_4af8c903-0f92-5c87-9b45-7c8bc9f367de.html

Quote

Los Angeles police arrested two men who allegedly got into a fight with store security guards who were escorting them out for not wearing face coverings.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

Next likely covid19 hotspot...

full story - https://coloradocommunitymedia.com/stories/castle-rock-business-draws-crowd-against-public-health-orders,298725“

 

Unfortunately, I think this is going to be widespread - not necessarily from restaurants where the owners are scoffing at precautions, but from restaurants where owners are trying like h*** to do the Right Thing.

 

Story from a local restaurant next county over: https://www.kmov.com/news/st-charles-restaurant-overwhelmed-as-customers-flood-in-dont-follow-safety-rules/article_a29f08e4-8f19-11ea-af34-57e287d0aa6f.html

 

She said many customers acted as if the restaurant was never closed.

“They're comfortable here so I think they just thought it would go back to the way it was and it's not like that right now,” she said.

While every employee wears PPE, Schnaible said not a single customer wore a mask.
 

"I didn't think it would be a problem, but it was so now we're doing where we actually seat people even at the bar so that people aren't congregating,” she said.

Schnaible hopes the new rules will keep her restaurant open and under control.

“I made a promise when I opened that I was going to take care of that, I want people to be safe but I want my staff safe too,” she said.

 

 

13 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Imagine being shopkeeper who told customers you needed to wear a mask to shop and one of the militant anti-mask protesters want to buy something....

 

This is where if mask wearing is truly a "personal choice" about "individual rights", the customer would politely refuse the offered mask, inform the shopkeeper he is taking his business elsewhere, respect the "individual rights" and "freedom" of the shopkeeper to impose health and safety regulations they consider necessary to operate their business safely, and leave.

 

 

[Punching Bag]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Unfortunately, I think this is going to be widespread - not necessarily from restaurants where the owners are scoffing at precautions, but from restaurants where owners are trying like h*** to do the Right Thing.

 

Story from a local restaurant next county over: https://www.kmov.com/news/st-charles-restaurant-overwhelmed-as-customers-flood-in-dont-follow-safety-rules/article_a29f08e4-8f19-11ea-af34-57e287d0aa6f.html

 

Yes much news on COVID-19 I read today on St Charles County.

 

it would so great if they could draw a line and separate the two groups. Of course the population of the one side would go down especially if medical personnel refused to cross line.

[Hardhatharry]

35 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Imagine being shopkeeper who told customers you needed to wear a mask to shop and one of the militant anti-mask protesters want to buy something....

If I was a smart shopkeeper I would sell them something.

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Bad Things said:

Holy cow.  That's just insane.  What a big, stupid jackass.

It’s especially stupid when you stop to consider that when an AT-4 rocket launcher is used once, it can never be used again, so you are just carrying around a fiber glass tube just for show. You can’t get your hands on an unused one, which is good for all of us, but if you’re carrying around a used rocket launcher, even if it can’t do any harm short of beating someone with it, you are intent on one thing only: intimidation. 

Edited May 11, 2020 by K-9

[Bad Things]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

It’s especially stupid when you stop to consider that when an AT-4 rocket launcher is used once, it can never be used again, so you are just carrying around a fiber glass tube just for show. You can’t get your hands on an unused one, which is good for all of us, but if you’re carrying around a used rocket launcher, even if it can’t do any harm short of beating someone with it, you are intent on one thing only: intimidation. 

Totally agree.… plus if you need to carry that thing around to look cool, it kinda shouts out to the world that you have a small dick.  Just sayin'

[K-9]

6 minutes ago, Bad Things said:

Totally agree.… plus if you need to carry that thing around to look cool, it kinda shouts out to the world that you have a small dick.  Just sayin'

LOL. The ultimate in Freudian compensation.

[BillsFan4]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/Health/health-news/doctors-keep-discovering-new-ways-the-coronavirus-attacks-the-body/ar-BB13SoPn

Doctors keep discovering new ways the coronavirus attacks the body

 

Man, this f’n virus is a monster.

[LeGOATski]

56 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is where if mask wearing is truly a "personal choice" about "individual rights", the customer would politely refuse the offered mask, inform the shopkeeper he is taking his business elsewhere, respect the "individual rights" and "freedom" of the shopkeeper to impose health and safety regulations they consider necessary to operate their business safely, and leave.

 

 

It's the same concept as "no shirt, no shoes, no service" right?

 

Strange times.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/Health/health-news/doctors-keep-discovering-new-ways-the-coronavirus-attacks-the-body/ar-BB13SoPn

Doctors keep discovering new ways the coronavirus attacks the body

 

Man, this f’n virus is a monster.

 

"Awesome" does not mean "awesome" here.  Very good article though

[Augie]

As I was looking at this chart:

 

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

 

The NBC Nightly News just reported that the new cases in Georgia have increased 64% since the state began reopening. 

 

Can anyone reconcile these two things for me? I mean, really.......who are we to believe? (Besides the obvious “nobody”.) 

[Bad Things]

47 minutes ago, Augie said:

As I was looking at this chart:

 

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

 

The NBC Nightly News just reported that the new cases in Georgia have increased 64% since the state began reopening. 

 

Can anyone reconcile these two things for me? I mean, really.......who are we to believe? (Besides the obvious “nobody”.) 

 

Would you happen to have a link to the NBC story?

I just searched their website and couldn't find it.

 

I agree with you all that it is simply shocking how different news organizations can paint such a different picture of EVERYTHING.

During a global pandemic, nothing is more important than facts and the truth.

[Augie]

5 minutes ago, Bad Things said:

 

Would you happen to have a link to the NBC story?

I just searched their website and couldn't find it.

 

I agree with you all that it is simply shocking how different news organizations can paint such a different picture of EVERYTHING.

During a global pandemic, nothing is more important than facts and the truth.

 

Nope, just heard it on the news, but somebody on my college hoops board heard it and posted before I could, so I didn’t hear it wrong. 

 

This isn’t just a little discrepancy. This is TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT PICTURES! 

 

Do you think Elvis might really still be alive and shopping at Walmart in Toledo, OH? 

[BillsFan4]

I can’t speak to the report being discussed.

 

But Personally, I’ve found that a lot of state health websites lag a week or two behind in their data because they are only reporting the cases once they confirm them and that takes time (as it mentions on their websites). And county department’s of health are overwhelmed, which is slowing things down as well.

 

augie - go to that website, scroll down just past the deaths over time, to where it shows demographics. Then click on the lab testing tab.

 

notice how from May 1st till current there’s all those perforated dots? 

 

This is what it says about what those dots mean:

 

Quote

Illnesses may have yet to be reported

 

Also, see this:

Quote

14-day window – Confirmed cases over the last 14 days may not be accounted for due to illnesses yet to be reported or test results may still be pending.

 

 

Quote

A confirmed case is defined as a person who has tested positive for 2019 novel coronavirus. Healthcare providers diagnose patients with COVID-19 and they, along with laboratories, report the COVID-19 cases to the Georgia DPH. These numbers are preliminary and may change as more information is gathered on a person under investigation. Data during the period reported may be incomplete due to the lag in time between when the case was tested and/or reported and submitted to the Georgia DPH for reporting purposes. This delay can vary depending on the testing facility and/or jurisdiction. 

 

 

Ive found this website to be pretty accurate. They use preliminary data and it seems to more accurately reflect the real time case numbers. I mean, I can’t say for 100% sure it’s accurate, but since I’ve been following it I haven’t noticed any big discrepancies.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by BillsFan4

[Hapless Bills Fan]

58 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

I can’t speak to the report being discussed. (...)

Ive found this website to be pretty accurate. They use preliminary data and it seems to more accurately reflect the real time case numbers. I mean, I can’t say for 100% sure it’s accurate, but since I’ve been following it I haven’t noticed any big discrepancies.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Just a note that while for some states, Worldometers gives several sources, for Georgia the DPH is the only site given.

A couple of other sites with good information:

The Covid Tracking Project is pretty good

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/georgia#historical

We can see that on Fri April 24th, when the state began opening per gov. orders, there were 22,147 reported cases (per covidtracking.com historical data).

There are now 33,927 cases, which represents an increase of 53%. 

 

The numbers off the Georgia DPH site are a bit different - 33,998 and 26,651 (which I would guess to be pending tests taken on that date but not reported when covidtracking did its data capture?), but still an increase of 54%.

 

It takes some navigating, but the NYTimes covid-19 coverage is pretty good.  Here is their link to the Georgia data
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/georgia-coronavirus-cases.html
And here is a link to their metropolitan area tracker

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-metro-area-tracker.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#rate-by-severity

If we put in Atlanta, we see it is on a trajectory to double cases every 4 weeks, and has been for some time.

 

Double cases every 4 weeks roughly means increase by 50% over 2 weeks, so since it's just over 2 weeks since Kemp ordered re-opening, I would say there has not been a significant change in growth rate in Georgia to this date.

 

This is just my opinion, but absent really widespread testing, I think 2 weeks is too short a time to see any particular change.  Each infection cycle will be 4-14 days.  So even if a bunch of people ran out and got exposed on 24 April,  we would only be starting to see them show up as cases right about now.  Absent really widespread testing, since a lot of people are asymptomatic or only mildly ill, it may take several infection cycles to see a "bloom" in cases seeking medical treatment. 

 

Hopefully the majority of people in Georgia are still being cautious and exercising precautions and we won't see a bloom.

 

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

Nope, just heard it on the news, but somebody on my college hoops board heard it and posted before I could, so I didn’t hear it wrong. 

 

This isn’t just a little discrepancy. This is TWO ENTIRELY DIFFERENT PICTURES! 

 

Do you think Elvis might really still be alive and shopping at Walmart in Toledo, OH? 

 

See above, but absent the story to give better assessment, I don't think it's really two entirely different pictures at all.  Georgia was not seeing a decline in cases before it re-opened, and since it re-opened, taking Atlanta as a surrogate, it seems to be about on the same trajectory.  NBC is off by about 10% or has access to some preliminary data if they said 64% increase in cases.  But given delays in reporting pending tests and state sites updating, 10% doesn't seem like a different picture.

What I think may be different is the "spin" being put on it.  It sounds (from your reaction) as though NBC was like "Oh NOES 64% new cases!" without context that "yes, summing up the positive test results over the past 17 days, there are a significant number of new cases, but that doesn't seem to mean that the rate of new cases has increased" - I mean, with a case trajectory "doubling every 4 weeks", increase of 60% in 17 days is almost exactly what one would expect?

 

I am personally not a fan of any televised news program these days because of "spin" in one or another direction and reduction of everything to soundbites.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

See above, but absent the story to give better assessment, I don't think it's really two entirely different pictures at all.  Georgia was not seeing a decline in cases before it re-opened, and since it re-opened, taking Atlanta as a surrogate, it seems to be about on the same trajectory.  NBC is off by about 7% or has access to some preliminary data if they said 60% increase in cases, it looks like it's 53%.

What I think may be different is the "spin" being put on it.  It sounds from your reaction as though NBC was like "Oh NOES 60% new cases!" without context that "yes, summing up the positive test results over the past 17 days, there are a significant number of new cases, but that doesn't seem to mean that the rate of new cases has increased"

 

Sorry, I’m just a simple man, and I prefer pictures to all the links and numbers.    

 

I boil it down to this. The graph below from Georgia.Gov does NOT mesh with a 64% increase per NBC in cases since partial reopening: 

 

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

 

Who is lying, and how? (NBC just threw out a 64% increase since reopening like we are just supposed to take every word as fact with zero support.). The graph shows a clear and sharp decline. 

 

I don’t trust either of them, I just want transparency. Show your work! 

 

I want someone to look at the graph (updated throughout every day), and tell me how that represents a 64% increase since partial reopening. 

 

I don’t know what to believe, but I don’t see how that is close. Forget all the other clutter, just the graph, and a 64% increase. Not seeing it I’m afraid. What’s wrong with the picture? 

 

I don’t trust NYT, or NBC, or the state of Georgia! This is just frustrating to be purposefully misled by groups with different agendas. 

 

 

. 

 

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by Augie

[spartacus]

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

 

The 7 day moving ave of new Georgia cases does show a decrease at the time of re-open 14 days ago.

As in NY, Atlanta may be the outlier in the state.

 

As noted, the chart does show a continuing decrease in new cases, which directly  contradicts the NBC "news" report 54% increase

[BillsFan4]

[Bad Things]

I could be wrong, but I think a few of you may be comparing an increase of TOTAL Covid-19 cases with Daily New Cases of Covid-19.

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by Bad Things

[Hapless Bills Fan]

55 minutes ago, spartacus said:

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

 

The 7 day moving ave of new Georgia cases does show a decrease at the time of re-open 14 days ago.

As in NY, Atlanta may be the outlier in the state.

 

As noted, the chart does show a continuing decrease in new cases, which directly  contradicts the NBC "news" report 54% increase

 

Without having a reference to what the NBC report actually said, it's really pretty pointless to debate.

For example, while new cases may be decreasing, the sum of new cases since the reopening can still show an increase, and that is not a contradiction at all.

 

I'm going to suggest we leave this topic absent an actual reference to what was actually said by NBC in full context.

 

BTW the Georgia graph is kind of interesting.  It shows a repeating pattern of a 7 day high followed by descending numbers, suggesting a regular cycle of tests being backlogged and run/entered  - maybe having to do with weekends?  There's really one data point that breaks the pattern, which is today's (8th day). 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 hours ago, Augie said:

 

Sorry, I’m just a simple man, and I prefer pictures to all the links and numbers.    

 

Not good enough, Augie.  You don't get to repeatedly go on about how NBC is lying, when you can't

1)provide a link to to the NBC article or

2) look at two numbers and do a ratio.

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/georgia#historical

 

Or if you want, you can pull it off the Georgia status report:

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

 

Put the cursor on the daily cumulative cases for today.  See the number.  Write down the number.

Now put the cursor on April 24. See the number.  Write down the number. 

Divide today's number by April 24 number and subtract 1.  That's the % increase.

 

Perhaps your point of confusion is not understanding that cases per day can be declining every day, but the sum total of daily cases over 18 days can still represent a substantial increase in the total number of cases since a certain date? 

That's not a "lie" or a contradiction, it's just a property of summing a series of numbers.

 

Quote

I boil it down to this. The graph below from Georgia.Gov does NOT mesh with a 64% increase per NBC in cases since partial reopening: 

 

Correct.  It meshes with a 53% increase in cases, but that doesn't mean NBC is lying, they may have a different source for numbers that the web site hasn't caught up with yet.

 

Quote

Who is lying, and how? (NBC just threw out a 64% increase since reopening like we are just supposed to take every word as fact with zero support.). The graph shows a clear and sharp decline. 

 

I don’t trust either of them, I just want transparency. Show your work! 

 

I want someone to look at the graph (updated throughout every day), and tell me how that represents a 64% increase since partial reopening. 

 

Augie, I got to ask you to stand down here. (edit: see below for link and tip of hat for providing it)

 

2x now, you've been provided with sources, data.  You've been unable to substantiate your NBC news thing with a link.

It's not OK to read what someone takes the time to explain, complete with links and explanations, and stamp your feet and yell "liar" and request transparency and "Show your work!".  In fact, it's unreasonable and insulting.

 

Two numbers and a ratio off a graph on the website you link seem simple enough for a "simple man"

Two numbers and a ratio off the chart of numbers on another website (link provided) also seem simple enough for a "simple man".

 

I don't think it's helpful to continue to toss around accusations of media lying when you can't substantiate what was said, and you can't apparently accept data provided to you.

 

Edit:

Here is a link to the NBC News broadcast in question.  The Georgia section is at about 5:30.  There is a "ticker" across the bottom of the screen "Coronavirus Cases Surging in some Reopened States".  The actual statement is that covid-19 cases have increased 64% since the state reopened on 24 April.  I interpret that as saying "the total number of cases from April 24 to now".  Per the DPH data, that number is high (but the DPH data says preliminary, and it's possible NBC has a data source not yet available to the public).

 

To Augie's point: while not exactly a lie per se, I would rate that news report as "framed to be deliberately misleading".  The impression created by the "ticker" stating "coronavirus cases surging" is a larger-than-anticipated number of cases.  Instead, as discussed above, a 54% increase in cases over 17 days is pretty much exactly what one would expect from a trajectory of "cases doubling every 4 weeks", which is what Georgia has been on - doubling every 4 weeks means 50% increase every 2 weeks, after all.  A 64% increase would be a bit more than expected in 17 days, but given the variation in numbers, not surging.

 

It seems to me that NBC there is deliberately trying to frame the news in an alarming way.  Color me "unimpressed" by the journalism and integrity of NBC news here.  I haven't watched network news programs in almost 20 years, ever since reading Gavin de Becker's excellent book "The Gift of Fear".  Doesn't look as though I'm missing anything.

 

 

 

 

[Augie]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Without having a reference to what the NBC report actually said, it's really pretty pointless to debate.

For example, while new cases may be decreasing, the sum of new cases since the reopening can still show an increase, and that is not a contradiction at all.

 

The claim about the NBC news report was that they reported 64% increase in new cases....

I pulled numbers off the dph.georgia site and the covidtracking.com site and calculated a 54% increase based upon those numbers

 

The https://dph.georgia.gov site does not contradict this - it was one of my sources and both sources agreed pretty closely

 

I'm going to suggest we leave this topic absent an actual reference to what was actually said by NBC in full context.

 

BTW the Georgia graph is kind of interesting.  It shows a repeating pattern of a 7 day high followed by descending numbers, suggesting a regular cycle of tests being backlogged and run/entered  - maybe having to do with weekends?  There's really one data point that breaks the pattern, which is today's (8th day). 

 

 

 

Very good point about the spikes and weekend backlogs. I hadn’t thought of that, but it does seem plausible. Still, while not anywhere near “out of the woods”, I feel encouraged by the general direction of the curve. I’m a fan of good news, and remaining careful. 

[Figster]

Whats the old saying,  "If you can't beat them, join them."

 

Not wearing a mask or practicing social distancing seems crazy to most of us because we really don't have an alternative to protect ourselves or those around us at this point. On the other hand we have a good sized number of folks that for whatever the reason may be feel the need to use the freedoms our country has given them and make a stand. Well what If both sides could meet in the middle. We have vaccines in trial phase and the need for new ideas and applications to be tested. We need to build the Herd.

 

If people are asking to be exposed give them what they want in a more controlled setting and pay them for their services. They can quarantine, test negative and go on about their business wearing a clearly visible indicator to those around them that they are now a herd test subject.

 

Human Guinea pigs for hire...

Edited May 12, 2020 by Figster

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Figster said:

Whats the old saying,  "If you can't beat them, join them."

 

Not wearing a mask or practicing social distancing seems crazy to most of us because we really don't have an alternative to protect ourselves or those around us at this point. On the other hand we have a good sized number of folks that for whatever the reason may be feel the need to use the freedoms our country has given them and make a stand. Well what If both sides could meet in the middle. We have vaccines in trial phase and the need for new ideas and applications to be tested. We need to build the Herd.

 

If people are asking to be exposed give them what they want in a more controlled setting and pay them for their services. They can quarantine, test negative and go on about their business wearing a clearly visible indicator to those around them that they are now a herd test subject.

 

Human Guinea pigs for hire...

 

I'm afraid this is opaque to me, especially the last part.

 

What I would like to point out is that the very political leaders who have been referring to mask-wearing as "a personal choice, and I chose not to" (that's Missouri's (R) governor, for one), making an analogy between taking protective measures such as mask-wearing and "cowering in fear...." and who say we don't need more testing, seem to have undergone a "Sea Change" now that Covid-19 has been found close at THEIR hands.

 

1) The White House staff are all being tested every day.  Every. Single. Day.  All visitors are tested before entering. 

2) Now that a couple of the staff have tested positive, what's the first action?  ORDER THAT EVERYONE WEAR MASKS in the West Wing (except Pres. Trump).

 

Maybe what the American people need, is what their leaders are prescribing for themselves:

1) More testing, especially for high-risk sectors like nursing home residents and those who care for them.  Why can't THEY get tested every day?

2) Everybody mask up in public and at work, to protect each other.

 

Your mask protects me.  My mask protects you.  How can that "meet in the middle" if you're unwilling to take that step to protect me and mine? 
It seems to me like trying to create a pee-free zone in a swimming pool, it just doesn't work.

On some things there could and IMO should be discussion: "if we require masks and limit # of people, can we safely open the gyms? small retail shops?" etc.

 

Maybe we should pay a bit more attention to what steps our leaders are taking to protect themselves (making everyone around them wear masks - no "personal choice", Do It; getting everyone around them tested daily), and less attention to their rhetoric.

 

Oh, and on testing  .... this site can be sorted by tests/1M population.  On a per capita basis, US testing is less than Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Belgium, Italy, New Zealand, Russia, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Australia, Canada, Singapore, and about the same as UK.  We have improved dramatically - credit where credit is due - but to say we're leading the world is misleading, at best.    And while it's easier to be tested, it's considered pretty amazing that NYS announced nursing home workers would be tested 2x a week and that first responders can get tested 1x; in many states, this is NOT happening.

[K-9]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Oh, and on testing  .... this site can be sorted by tests/1M population.  On a per capita basis, US testing is less than Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Belgium, Italy, New Zealand, Russia, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Australia, Canada, Singapore, and about the same as UK.  We have improved dramatically - credit where credit is due - but to say we're leading the world is misleading, at best.    And while it's easier to be tested, it's considered pretty amazing that NYS announced nursing home workers would be tested 2x a week and that first responders can get tested 1x; in many states, this is NOT happening.

Misleading or not, call it whatever you like. Making an international competition out of it is even worse. 

[bdutton]

30 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Oh, and on testing  .... this site can be sorted by tests/1M population.  On a per capita basis, US testing is less than Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Belgium, Italy, New Zealand, Russia, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Australia, Canada, Singapore, and about the same as UK.  We have improved dramatically - credit where credit is due - but to say we're leading the world is misleading, at best.    And while it's easier to be tested, it's considered pretty amazing that NYS announced nursing home workers would be tested 2x a week and that first responders can get tested 1x; in many states, this is NOT happening.

 

12 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Misleading or not, call it whatever you like. Making an international competition out of it is even worse. 

 

Here is a good map of the testing per 1000.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#world-map-total-tests-performed-relative-to-the-size-of-population

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

https://rs-delve.github.io/reports/2020/05/04/face-masks-for-the-general-public.html

Face masks could offer an important tool for contributing to the management of community transmission of Covid19 within the general population. Evidence supporting their potential effectiveness comes from analysis of: (1) the incidence of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission; (2) the role of respiratory droplets in transmission, which can travel as far as 1-2 meters; and (3) studies of the use of homemade and surgical masks to reduce droplet spread. Our analysis suggests that their use could reduce onward transmission by asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic wearers if widely used in situations where physical distancing is not possible or predictable, contrasting to the standard use of masks for the protection of wearers. If correctly used on this basis, face masks, including homemade cloth masks, can contribute to reducing viral transmission.

Key points

1. Asymptomatic (including presymptomatic) infected individuals are infectious. Without mitigation, the current estimate is that 40%-80% of infections occur from individuals without symptoms¹²³⁴. Universal screening of asymptomatic SARS-COV2 in women admitted for delivery in New York City shows that 13.7% were infected, and that asymptomatic women accounted for 88% of infected individuals in the study⁵. Of individuals who do become symptomatic, viral loads are the highest in the presymptomatic and early symptomatic phase, decreasing thereafter^6789101112.

2. Respiratory droplets from infected individuals are a major mode of transmission¹³. This understanding is the basis of the recommendations for physical distancing, and of the PPE guidance for healthcare workers¹⁴. Droplets do not only come from coughing or sneezing: in a-/pre-symptomatic individuals, droplets are generated via talking and breathing¹⁵.

3. Face masks reduce droplet dispersal. Cloth-based face masks reduce emission of particles by variable amounts, for example Anfinrud et al¹⁵ showed that they are almost completely eliminated. Davies et al¹⁶ showed that cloth masks filtered viral particles during coughing at about 50 to 100% of the filtration efficiency of surgical masks, depending on fabric, with absolute filtration efficiencies of 50-70%, and about 70-80% for oral bacteria. van der Sande et al¹⁷ showed 50% filtering efficiency for airborne particles.

 

 

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v1

 

The preponderance of evidence indicates that mask wearing reduces the transmissibility per contact by reducing transmission of infected droplets in both laboratory and clinical contexts. Public mask wearing is most effective at stopping spread of the virus when compliance is high. The decreased transmissibility could substantially reduce the death toll and economic impact while the cost of the intervention is low. Thus we recommend the adoption of public cloth mask wearing, as an effective form of source control, in conjunction with existing hygiene, distancing, and contact tracing strategies. We recommend that public officials and governments strongly encourage the use of widespread face masks in public, including the use of appropriate regulation.

 

https://masks4all.co/

 

hard to tell how much of the effect is mask-wearing and how much is testing/tracing, but the testing/tracing "is what it is", so why not try the masks?

 

Crazy Ninja Sewist Ladies who determined shop towels are among the best materials for masks, then tested patterns and found a very good pattern.  I have one of these masks made for me by a friend, and it's The Bomb.  Fits well, very comfortable, stays in place.

https://www.businessinsider.com/instructions-for-making-blue-shop-towel-surgical-masks-2020-4?op=1

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, bdutton said:

Here is a good map of the testing per 1000.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#world-map-total-tests-performed-relative-to-the-size-of-population

 

This is a good site, Thank you!  I particularly like that they allow you to download the data and to select what countries you want to show.

 

So just for grins, I selected as many countries as I could from the "Green" set above (China was not a choice)

We can see that on a per-capita basis, some countries are doing more testing than we, but a number are actually doing LESS testing or about the same amount, but containing disease more effectively.  This may imply that public mask use may be a factor.

 

It is fair to note that in some of these countries (Hong Kong, Taiwan) the public is being supplied with a quality mask.

[BillsFan4]

Just came across this site. From the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york

 

You can pick any state. I just used NY since that’s where I live.

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by BillsFan4

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

Just came across this site. From the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york

 

You can pick any state. I just used NY since that’s where I live.

 

 

TBH, I don't know what to make of the IHME data at all at this point.

I just compared Georgia (which some feel has relaxed restrictions prematurely) to Missouri (which still has restrictions in place for the hardest hit areas KC and St Louis, and which is relaxing them in a very phased way, akin to NYS).  They have very different predictions ?‍♂️

[spartacus]

38 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Misleading or not, call it whatever you like. Making an international competition out of it is even worse. 

testing would be important if the tests were reliable

letting companies release test kits based on 50-100 person trials is not doing much for reliability

perhaps more time could be spent on validating the technology in tests before forcing maximum testing on the public

 

 

[bdutton]

32 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is a good site, Thank you!  I particularly like that they allow you to download the data and to select what countries you want to show.

 

So just for grins, I selected as many countries as I could from the "Green" set above (China was not a choice)

We can see that on a per-capita basis, some countries are doing more testing than we, but a number are actually doing LESS testing or about the same amount, but containing disease more effectively.  This may imply that public mask use may be a factor.

 

It is fair to note that in some of these countries (Hong Kong, Taiwan) the public is being supplied with a quality mask.

Lots of other factors regarding effectiveness such as effectiveness of stay at home orders, geographic, population densities,  weather, public transportation, personal hygiene practices, cultural ways, etc...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, spartacus said:

testing would be important if the tests were reliable

letting companies release test kits based on 50-100 person trials is not doing much for reliability

perhaps more time could be spent on validating the technology in tests before forcing maximum testing on the public

 

Perhaps you could provide more information about what "tests are not reliable" and what companies are releasing kits based upon 50-100 person trials?

 

The diagnostic tests (RT-PCR) are being quite carefully monitored.

I'm not aware of anyone releasing diagnostic tests based upon 50-100 person trials, nor any hospitals/public health departments using such tests.

 

I have no idea what you mean by "forcing maximum testing on the public".  If you work at the White House or wish to visit President Trump, you are forced to get a test; most places of which I'm aware, people would like more testing to be available, especially for their elders and elder caregivers, and nothing is being "forced on the public".

 

The antibody testing is considered "informational" so it's being handled differently, but the graphs being presented and the discussion around testing in different countries is all about diagnostic testing.

 

I think this implication that testing is not important because the diagnostic tests are unreliable or released upon very limited datasets is misleading, but I'll await your sources and further information.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, bdutton said:

Lots of other factors regarding effectiveness such as effectiveness of stay at home orders, geographic, population densities,  weather, public transportation, personal hygiene practices, cultural ways, etc...

 

Fair.  Superficially, many of those countries have quite high population density (Taiwan, Hong Kong etc) and similar social distancing orders.  Many have warmer weather said to be (or perhaps simply hoped to be) less conducive to viral transmission.

 

But of course you are correct that the "devil is in the details" and some may have been more effective than others.

 

[bdutton]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Fair.  Superficially, many of those countries have quite high population density (Taiwan, Hong Kong etc) and similar social distancing orders.  Many have warmer weather said to be (or perhaps simply hoped to be) less conducive to viral transmission.

 

But of course you are correct that the "devil is in the details" and some may have been more effective than others.

 

One important factor to include in mortality rate is the population's density of at risk people.  We have a lot more people in the US that are obese and have diabetes etc...

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

33 minutes ago, bdutton said:

One important factor to include in mortality rate is the population's density of at risk people.  We have a lot more people in the US that are obese and have diabetes etc...

 

Mortality rates weren't being discussed in the OP to which you responded.

 

The original figure was rolling average of new cases Jan 22 - May 2 in a bunch of countries, attempting to correlate to mask use and to test/trace/isolate practices, and then me selecting most of the countries whose case load has fallen to a low level and US on a plot of tests per capita to see whether testing prevalence would explain the results (it doesn't).

I do agree with your point that other factors, such as adherence to stay-at-home orders and strictness of same, come into play and are hard to sort.

 

But at some point, may we acknowledge that a whole lot of countries, including democracies, with superficially less resources and infrastructure, appear to be doing rather better at managing covid-19, and ask why?  It seems the tendency is to make excuses - more diabetes (not so, and may not affect the case numbers), more obesity (true, but may not affect the case numbers) etc etc.

Our president has declared Americans to be "Warriors".  Warriors are usually armed and equipped in some way.  I believe military history shows warriors who aren't properly armed and equipped or led with the proper tactics, are usually cut to pieces in their first battle.

If we're "warriors", it's reasonable to ask what is the proper equipment for this battle - Cu masks like Limeaid posted about being distributed to every citizen in Hong Kong?  Medical procedure masks as are distributed in Taiwan, S. Korea, etc?  Improvise your own? 

 

Or no masks?  Is mask wearing still a "personal choice" after the White House scurries to mask up all its staffers in response to a couple positive tests?

 

If we are warriors, how about testing and tracing as a battle tactic?  Or is it "the White House tests every staffer and every visitor every single day, but what do we need with more testing across the country?"

 

 

 

 

[K-9]

2 hours ago, spartacus said:

testing would be important if the tests were reliable

letting companies release test kits based on 50-100 person trials is not doing much for reliability

perhaps more time could be spent on validating the technology in tests before forcing maximum testing on the public

 

 

I agree, but the FDA has already screwed that pooch. It’s the wild, wild west in the testing game with literally hundreds of tests approved without the normal and proper oversight. 

[BillsFan4]

I haven’t had a chance to read through all the guidelines contained in this link but it seems like a pretty decent resource so I figured I’d share.

 

https://www.backtoworksafely.org

 

Quote

The links below offer specific, easy-to-follow, science-based recommendations for limiting the transmission of the coronavirus while operating a wide variety of businesses, including restaurants, retail outlets, and hair and nail salons.

 

These guidelines were developed for those smaller business that don't have readily available occupational health and safety resources. We encourage employers, employees, and customers to carefully read and implement as many of the recommendations contained in the guidance document provided for your industry as possible.

 

It’s from the American Industrial Hygiene Association. 

[BillsFan4]

 

(without fans permitted)