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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

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13 minutes ago, Gene Frenkle said:

That was exactly when, younger and more naive, I couldn't wrap my head around how half the country could vote for that other guy. It's when I lost faith in 'Merica, if that's not too dramatic, or at least began to understand how fervent patriotism blindly divides us. Anyway, that's neither here nor there and is not worth a rehash. Bigger fish to fry now, of course.

the 2004 election results surprised you?  Seriously?

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12 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Just a look at where we stand today in comparison to European countries roughly equaling the US population and, geographically, closely connected. The US is anywhere from 9 - 14 days behind these countries.

 

Country Population Cases Deaths Deaths per capita Deaths per million Cases per capita Cases per million Death Rate of confirmed cases
Italy 60000000 124632 15362 0.026% 256.03 0.2077% 2077.20 12.33%
Spain 46000000 130759 12418 0.027% 269.96 0.2843% 2842.59 9.50%
France 65000000 90853 7574 0.012% 116.52 0.1398% 1397.74 8.34%
Belgium 11000000 19691 1447 0.013% 131.55 0.1790% 1790.09 7.35%
Germany 83000000 96108 1446 0.002% 17.42 0.1158% 1157.93 1.50%
UK 67000000 42480 4320 0.006% 64.48 0.0634% 634.03 10.17%
Total 332000000 504,523 42,567 0.013% 128.21 0.1520% 1519.65 8.44%
                 
United States 331000000 312,245 8,503 0.003% 25.69 0.0943% 943.34 2.72%
                 
New York / New Jersey 28000000 148,298 4,411 0.016% 157.54 0.5296% 5296.36 2.97%
Rest of United States 303000000 163,947 4,092 0.001% 13.50 0.0541% 541.08 2.50%

Seems like a mistake was made in the red numbers based on the blue numbers.

1 hour ago, Chef Jim said:


Me. Busier than ever. I worked yesterday and going into the office today. 

No "shelter in place" proclamations in CA?

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:


I think the outcomes in 2004/2016/and if Trump wins 2020 says more about the losers than it does the winners. 

Oh, Chef, we're all losers.

14 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

the 2004 election results surprised you?  Seriously?

...and we're back. No. Not at all. Thanks for asking.

Edited by Gene Frenkle

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59 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:


Watching the pressers, Trump has made mention of how some states were unprepared. He has mentioned that NYS had the opportunity to buy ventilators in 2015. He has qualified it several times with something like (paraphrased) I understand why not since we have never seen anything like this, but he has brought it up more than once.

For the most part, Trump has mentioned that we need to come together and stop playing politics. He has mentioned the good of the CA (Gavin Newsom) and WA (Jay Inslee) governors.   He even mentioned yesterday that Mayor de Blasio was appreciative of what the feds have done for NYC.

One day he praises Cuomo, and then Cuomo says something *****, the next day he isn't praising Cuomo. Makes me wonder what type of personal relationship these two had before Trump was elected (or if it all comes down to Cuomo playing games with Trump's NYS taxes?)

 

 

You hit it on the head. You nailed one of Trumps biggest flaws. He is not able to separate personal relationships from the relationships he must have in his role as the president. I am not a psychologist but his ego causes problems quite often in relationships both foreign and domestic.

 

Trump’s dealings with these Governors should be completely separate from any personal feelings. He is so fragile however that he cannot treat criticism as anything but a personal affront.  He immediately fires back at the criticism and has implied that those that criticize should get less federal help. That pettiness is dangerous and unacceptable 

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21 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:


I think the outcomes in 2004/2016/and if Trump wins 2020 says more about the losers than it does the winners. 

I don't think Trump has managed the pandemic as effectively as he could have and could be. The federal confusion has put a lot of mediocre governors in positions of actually having to lead and make really big decisions. 

 

However, much like 2016, the Democrats have selected a person that inspires even less faith in managing a crisis like this. Joe Biden inspires zero confidence. 

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FOR PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES TO SUCCEED THERE MUST BE TRUST. FOR THERE TO BE TRUST THERE MUST BE TRANSPARENCY. 

Colorado: State refuses to let public see local virus spread model.

 

 

 

 

NEW ORLEANS HAS HIGHEST CORONAVIRUS DEATH RATE OF ALL HARD-HIT AREAS IN US, DATA SHOWS.

 

Anita Lee of the New Orleans Sun Herald, the author of the above piece tweets, “This story is getting traction today, although I’ve had angry emails about poverty and #COVID19 severity in #NOLA being unrelated. It’s Mardi Gras, they say.”

 

 

 

Hawaii, population 1.5 million, has only 351 confirmed Covid-19 cases, and three deaths, despite Honolulu being a densely-packed urban area and tons of tourist traffic from Asia in December and January.

 

Puerto Rico, population 3.2 million, has only 452 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 18 deaths, despite a huge amount of traffic between the New York area and the island, and San Juan being a densely-packed city. Like I said, I’m not an epidemiologist, but I’d love to know if someone who is has provided an explanation for these statistics beyond sunshine, humidity, and hot weather. (Note: New Orleans has been consistently hot since March 10, and if that doesn’t slow the spread of the virus, it would definitely throw a monkey wrench into the weather theory, though not necessarily into the “protective nature of Vitamin D” theory, as I suspect residents of San Juan and Honolulu get a lot more sun in the Winter than do residents of New Orleans. P.S. I’m aware that Mardis Gras was likely a “super spreader event,” but if hot weather is protective, the rate of spread in March and April should be slower than in colder climates).

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
 
 
.
 
 
 
 
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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Seems like a mistake was made in the red numbers based on the blue numbers.

 

I took out the cases and deaths per capita and just went with cases and deaths per million. I believe the breakdown for New York and New Jersey vs. the rest of the United States is correct. New York / New Jersey comprise 8% of the total US population. They have accounted for 47% of cases and 51% of deaths

 

I also added in the approx number of tests conducted, to date, for each country.

 

Again, remember, we are about 9-14 days behind the other countries.

 

Country Population Tests conducted Tests conducted per million Cases Deaths Deaths per million Cases per million Death Rate of confirmed cases
Italy 60000000 619000 10316.67 124632 15362 256.03 2077.20 12.33%
Spain 46000000 355000 7717.39 130759 12418 269.96 2842.59 9.50%
France 65000000 101046 1554.55 90853 7574 116.52 1397.74 8.34%
Belgium 11000000 22615 2055.91 19691 1447 131.55 1790.09 7.35%
Germany 83000000 918460 11065.78 96108 1446 17.42 1157.93 1.50%
UK 67000000 173784 2593.79 42480 4320 64.48 634.03 10.17%
Total 332000000 2189905 6596.10 504523 42567 128.21 1519.65 8.44%
                 
United States 331000000 1500000 4531.72 312245 8503 25.69 943.34 2.72%
                 
New York / New Jersey 28000000     148298 4411 157.54 5296.36 2.97%
Rest of United States 303000000     163947 4092 13.50 541.08 2.50%
Edited by billsfan1959
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1 minute ago, Bob in Mich said:

 

You hit it on the head. You nailed one of Trumps biggest flaws. He is not able to separate personal relationships from the relationships he must have in his role as the president. I am not a psychologist but his ego causes problems quite often in relationships both foreign and domestic.

 

Trump’s dealings with these Governors should be completely separate from any personal feelings. He is so fragile however that he cannot treat criticism as anything but a personal affront.  He immediately fires back at the criticism and has implied that those that criticize should get less federal help. That pettiness is dangerous and unacceptable 


You forgot the part where Cuomo criticizes Trump first... remember, Trump counter-punches, he does not start. So, the better questions might be... Why can't Cuomo be thankful to the Feds for what they are providing to NYS?  Why does Cuomo have to criticize Trump/the Trump administration? Why can't Cuomo be gracious?  Why does Cuomo have to politicize this crisis? Why does Cuomo have to allow his personal feeling for Trump into this crisis? Why is Cuomo being so petty?

🙂
 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:


You forgot the part where Cuomo criticizes Trump first... remember, Trump counter-punches, he does not start. So, the better questions might be... Why can't Cuomo be thankful to the Feds for what they are providing to NYS?  Why does Cuomo have to criticize Trump/the Trump administration? Why can't Cuomo be gracious?  Why does Cuomo have to politicize this crisis? Why does Cuomo have to allow his personal feeling for Trump into this crisis? Why is Cuomo being so petty?

🙂
 


They are both being political ****heads at times in this. Trump has a bigger stage and role though. But the bar is really low for him when he’s behind the microphone.  
 

Trump’s actions are almost always better than his words. Not the best or an inspiring leader but he’s doing ok in his actions with this so far. I want him to do some more but this mostly has to do with explaining the path forward after this wave. 

Edited by shoshin
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Just now, Buffalo_Gal said:


You forgot the part where Cuomo criticizes Trump first... remember, Trump counter-punches, he does not start. So, the better questions might be... Why can't Cuomo be thankful to the Feds for what they are providing to NYS?  Why does Cuomo have to criticize Trump/the Trump administration? Why can't Cuomo be gracious?  Why does Cuomo have to politicize this crisis? Why does Cuomo have to allow his personal feeling for Trump into this crisis? Why is Cuomo being so petty?

🙂
 

Correct! Cuomo is CLEARY auditioning for 2020. I watched today’s PowerPoint and he thanked EVERYONE for what they’re doing....but ....when it came to the Federal Government sending military doctors....not a single ‘thank you’. The distinction was obvious! Go back and watch it for yourself.

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1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Correct! Cuomo is CLEARY auditioning for 2020. I watched today’s PowerPoint and he thanked EVERYONE for what they’re doing....but ....when it came to the Federal Government sending military doctors....not a single ‘thank you’. The distinction was obvious! Go back and watch it for yourself.

I agree. I really despise Cuomo. He had NY woefully unprepared for this , yet throws all blame at Federal government. Sadly,his Democratic base will lap it up. 

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3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:


You forgot the part where Cuomo criticizes Trump first... remember, Trump counter-punches, he does not start. So, the better questions might be... Why can't Cuomo be thankful to the Feds for what they are providing to NYS?  Why does Cuomo have to criticize Trump/the Trump administration? Why can't Cuomo be gracious?  Why does Cuomo have to politicize this crisis? Why does Cuomo have to allow his personal feeling for Trump into this crisis? Why is Cuomo being so petty?

🙂
 

 

What grade are you in?  Who started it?  Are you ***** kidding me?  Without criticism Trump would not have gotten off his ass for even longer. Nevermind

 

We will never agree. Stay safe

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Just now, Boatdrinks said:

I agree. I really despise Cuomo. He had NY woefully unprepared for this , yet throws all blame at Federal government. Sadly,his Democratic base will lap it up. 


We were all unprepared. If you show me an American state or politician who was prepared for this, only they can lay blame. But that’s not fair to do. 
 

Judge everyone by their actions after mid-March, when we all woke up. 

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12 minutes ago, B-Man said:

FOR PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES TO SUCCEED THERE MUST BE TRUST. FOR THERE TO BE TRUST THERE MUST BE TRANSPARENCY. 

Colorado: State refuses to let public see local virus spread model.

 

 

 

 

NEW ORLEANS HAS HIGHEST CORONAVIRUS DEATH RATE OF ALL HARD-HIT AREAS IN US, DATA SHOWS.

 

Anita Lee of the New Orleans Sun Herald, the author of the above piece tweets, “This story is getting traction today, although I’ve had angry emails about poverty and #COVID19 severity in #NOLA being unrelated. It’s Mardi Gras, they say.”

 

 

 

Hawaii, population 1.5 million, has only 351 confirmed Covid-19 cases, and three deaths, despite Honolulu being a densely-packed urban area and tons of tourist traffic from Asia in December and January.

 

Puerto Rico, population 3.2 million, has only 452 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 18 deaths, despite a huge amount of traffic between the New York area and the island, and San Juan being a densely-packed city. Like I said, I’m not an epidemiologist, but I’d love to know if someone who is has provided an explanation for these statistics beyond sunshine, humidity, and hot weather. (Note: New Orleans has been consistently hot since March 10, and if that doesn’t slow the spread of the virus, it would definitely throw a monkey wrench into the weather theory, though not necessarily into the “protective nature of Vitamin D” theory, as I suspect residents of San Juan and Honolulu get a lot more sun in the Winter than do residents of New Orleans. P.S. I’m aware that Mardis Gras was likely a “super spreader event,” but if hot weather is protective, the rate of spread in March and April should be slower than in colder climates).

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
 
 
.
 
 
 
 
.

 

 

 

Interesting stuff. Just a guess, but perhaps we’re seeing community spread influenced mostly by cultural/ hygiene habits in those areas. Population density and weather don’t seem as important. 

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:


We were all unprepared. If you show me an American state or politician who was prepared for this, only they can lay blame. But that’s not fair to do. 
 

Judge everyone by their actions after mid-March, when we all woke up. 

There weren’t any. Cuomo will not own it, and that’s the problem. He begs the Feds for help, but blames them at the same time. 

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Just now, Boatdrinks said:

Interesting stuff. Just a guess, but perhaps we’re seeing community spread influenced mostly by cultural/ hygiene habits in those areas. Population density and weather don’t seem as important. 


38M people in metro Tokyo agree. 
 

We need to take a long hard look at places that have almost no spread but a lot of exposure. 

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3 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

 

There weren’t any. Cuomo will not own it, and that’s the problem. He begs the Feds for help, but blames them at the same time. 


He should. But if you see any politician owning that they screwed up in their lack of preparedness, I’ll be shocked. The best they all will say is that this caught them off guard. 

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3 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

Byron Pitts, co-anchor ABC’s “Nightline,” interviewed Vice President Mike Pence on Friday night.

 

Pitts asked Pence: "Mr. Vice President, I have a final question for you. And I ask this not in a political way. But for you sir, like so many of us in our nation, you are a person of deep faith. No one doubts that. When you talk to God in your moments alone, do you find yourself worrying at all that people you represent, and care deeply about, have died and will die who did not need to because of steps the federal government did not take soon enough?"

 

He replied, “Thank you for mentioning that we are talking about one American at a time. We wanted the American people to see the numbers so that we understand the challenging days that lie ahead. But I want people to know that our future is in your hands, that if every one of us will do and put into practice the Guidelines for America, that we can bring those numbers down.”

 

Pence has much more class than I do, as my immediate response to Pitts would have been something along the lines of:

 

giphy.gif

 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Interesting stuff. Just a guess, but perhaps we’re seeing community spread influenced mostly by cultural/ hygiene habits in those areas. Population density and weather don’t seem as important. 

 

They all play a role, but at this point it's difficult to know which of the three C's (climate, culture, custom) is more vital.  But looking at the data from across the world, the evidence is clear that ignoring them puts communities in peril.

 

USA is probably the most diverse country in the world in terms of climate and cultures, and after a month of the spread, the patterns are too obvious to ignore.  Even if you look at the NYC epicenter of the Wuhan virus, the data is astounding.  NYC started reporting cases by zip code, and it's illuminating. 

 

One would figure that the heavily Asian neighborhoods would be the worst hit, given the viral origin.  But that's not the case.  The Asian neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Manhattan & Queens show the lowest rates of infections, even though the residents are in the thick of all NYC activity.  The neighborhoods are just as dense and they take the same public transit.  The larger outbreaks are in the Hispanic and black communities.  Also notable are the spikes in the Hasid and Ultra-Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods in Brooklyn & Queens (who totally ignore the social distancing recommendations).  

 

Moral of the story?   For the time being, look at what the Asians are doing during a viral spread.

 

BTW, be extra careful if you're in Chemung and St. Lawrence counties - they show the fastest growth in the state now.  That's how trouble begins.

Edited by GG
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