The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[shoshin]

3 hours ago, RiotAct said:

Yuuuup

 

The rising cases from reopening in the south and west should be a lesson. It takes a few weeks for the exponential growth to show a spike. Cases are rising everywhere after opening.It will take 6-8 weeks to see the rise if we use the south as an indication. AZ has its largest hospital system at capacity. NC has rising cases. UT has hugely rising cases. 

 

The fall could be tough. 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

3 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

The rising cases from reopening in the south and west should be a lesson. It takes a few weeks for the exponential growth to show a spike. Cases are rising everywhere after opening.It will take 6-8 weeks to see the rise if we use the south as an indication. AZ has its largest hospital system at capacity. NC has rising cases. UT has hugely rising cases. 

 

The fall could be tough. 

 

 

What we need to be concerned about are deaths, not cases. Many would say that the more cases there are the better, as herd immunity will rise with an increase in cases.  And, this time around, like so many people have posted OLD PEOPLE need to be extremely vigilant.  Remember of course that many elderly patients (like my late grandfather) die in the hospital every day after contracting something they did not have when they were admitted.

[spartacus]

2 hours ago, GG said:

 

But it was good enough to use models, which may not provide an accurate representation, to close down the world and keep it closed?

the models are way better that the press conf report that transmission is very rare..

that is only based on review of actual data, from actual infected people which clearly shows that covid is not nearly as transmissable as the models show.

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

What we need to be concerned about are deaths, not cases. Many would say that the more cases there are the better, as herd immunity will rise with an increase in cases.  And, this time around, like so many people have posted OLD PEOPLE need to be extremely vigilant.  Remember of course that many elderly patients (like my late grandfather) die in the hospital every day after contracting something they did not have when they were admitted.

 

Hospitalization is the limiting resource, though I have first hand accounts in my house that my wife says PPE is still not adequate in the largest hospital system in PA, so even that remains an embarrassing shortfall.

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

41 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Hospitalization is the limiting resource, though I have first hand accounts in my house that my wife says PPE is still not adequate in the largest hospital system in PA, so even that remains an embarrassing shortfall.

 

 

Embarrassing? You have the expectation that a country the size of the USA could create enough of disposal anything to equip the entire nation with product that’s intended to be refilled two or three times a day? How about we make sure that the hospital staff have the proper equipment before we tell 300 Million people that they HAVE TO wear masks while walking on the beach! How about the people in charge start checking Supply before making Demands?

[GG]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

Hospitalization is the limiting resource, though I have first hand accounts in my house that my wife says PPE is still not adequate in the largest hospital system in PA, so even that remains an embarrassing shortfall.

 

 

 

Hospitalizations were the limiting resource when too much of the virus & treatment wasn't known.   Now that the treatments are improving you're seeing less hospitalizations turn into ICUs and less ICUs turning into deaths.

 

Does it surprise you that any positive developments are never mentioned when discussing this "second" wave?  I

 

'm not going to accuse you of pumping up the scary stories about the Texas medical system running red.  That was the big story starting last week, right.  But why weren't those stories accompanied by the status of ICU bed capacity and the very low death rate from those hospitalizations? 

 

Seems like that should be the bold type of the headlines - Texas cases are going up, more people require hospitalizations, but very few progress to ICU, and even fewer die!   

 

Why show graphs that are consistently solidly green, when you can show selected days of a less important statistic that is red?

 

 

 

[Magox]

@GG even though I’m pretty much done speaking about this topic with any sort of detail or nuance simply because I think it’s a settled issue with the public and the return to more widespread stringent social distancing measures are over, another reason why hospitalizations are up is because hospitals are opening up throughout the state.  More people feel comfortable getting out and more are being admitted as a result of it.  Which also explains the lower ICU rates. 

[GG]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

@GG even though I’m pretty much done speaking about this topic with any sort of detail or nuance simply because I think it’s a settled issue with the public and the return to more widespread stringent social distancing measures are over, another reason why hospitalizations are up is because hospitals are opening up throughout the state.  More people feel comfortable getting out and more are being admitted as a result of it.  Which also explains the lower ICU rates. 

But look at the bottom graph.  Covid is not the lead use of ICU capacity in Texas.   This thing is done. 

[reddogblitz]

This crisis is over.  We've moved on.

 

They are running full page ads in the Seattle Times encouraging people to come in and get tested if they think they need or want to.

 

I got tested yesterday at the VA.  They had 2 lanes set up in the parking garage manned by 4 people plus one person checking people in.

 

I was told to get there 15 minutes before but arrived 30 since traffic was light.  They wave me right in.  There was no one else there getting tested.  They didn't have my paper work so I had to wait for 10 minutes for them to get it.  No one else pulled up.  Then they tested me and I left.  In the 20 minutes I was there I was the only one tested.

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

23 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

This crisis is over.  We've moved on.

 

They are running full page ads in the Seattle Times encouraging people to come in and get tested if they think they need or want to.

 

I got tested yesterday at the VA.  They had 2 lanes set up in the parking garage manned by 4 people plus one person checking people in.

 

I was told to get there 15 minutes before but arrived 30 since traffic was light.  They wave me right in.  There was no one else there getting tested.  They didn't have my paper work so I had to wait for 10 minutes for them to get it.  No one else pulled up.  Then they tested me and I left.  In the 20 minutes I was there I was the only one tested.

 

 

Thanks for sharing your story. My experience in Southern California has been the same. Yet Shosin comes on here every day claiming we have a testing problem. I’m not sure where he lives? Or whether he’s had trouble getting a test?

[Buffalo_Gal]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Thanks for sharing your story. My experience in Southern California has been the same. Yet Shosin comes on here every day claiming we have a testing problem. I’m not sure where he lives? Or whether he’s had trouble getting a test?

Heck, right before phase 1 opened in Erie County (we are in phase 2) I was thinking about getting tested so more covid-19 negative tests would get us open. There were tons of open appointments, even that day. The two places closest to me had zero cars anytime I drove by them, etc. If you want a test, you can get a test, and it has been that way for over a month.

 

[Magox]

I will just leave this out there 

 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

 

ENOUGH !

 

 

 

[shoshin]

GG, SoCal, and Magox declare that the crisis is over. 

 

I hope you're right, and I'm not sure what "over" means as I assume you still expect a 500+ deaths per day for the next 7-8 months. But I do hope you're right. 

 

I'm just hoping we stay open because I don't think closing was ever a great idea. The economy can't take closures. 

[GG]

28 minutes ago, shoshin said:

GG, SoCal, and Magox declare that the crisis is over. 

 

I hope you're right, and I'm not sure what "over" means as I assume you still expect a 500+ deaths per day for the next 7-8 months. But I do hope you're right. 

 

I'm just hoping we stay open because I don't think closing was ever a great idea. The economy can't take closures. 

The virus isn't over, but the crisis is.  

[Warren Zevon]

The more we continue to be exposed to the 5G waves, to quicker we all become immune to them. Makes sense - the crisis is done. #FakeVirus

[Doc Brown]

3 minutes ago, GG said:

The virus isn't over, but the crisis is.  

They'll get back to it as the "come what may" approach seems to be backfiring with increased hospitalizations in mostly Southern states.

[meazza]

12 minutes ago, Warren Zevon said:

The more we continue to be exposed to the 5G waves, to quicker we all become immune to them. Makes sense - the crisis is done. #FakeVirus

 

Stop being a troll.

 

https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/covid-19-is-under-control-in-montreal-health-officials-say

 

Keep in mind Montreal was a hot zone.

3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

They'll get back to it as the "come what may" approach seems to be backfiring with increased hospitalizations in mostly Southern states.

 

Were these southern states hit hard already?

[Magox]

45 minutes ago, shoshin said:

GG, SoCal, and Magox declare that the crisis is over. 

 

I hope you're right, and I'm not sure what "over" means as I assume you still expect a 500+ deaths per day for the next 7-8 months. But I do hope you're right. 

 

I'm just hoping we stay open because I don't think closing was ever a great idea. The economy can't take closures. 

 

The public was already beginning to break the stay at home orders weeks ago, the public was weary as it was.  But once the Governors began to play politics by valuing certain people’s rights over others and then many of the public health officials turned out to be hacks, it ended.

 

The public will not accept these frauds to tell them to return back to the hell that were the stay at home orders.  It’s over, there is no return and if some governors attempt to do so they will be defied.

 

Ive only said this probably like 10 different times in 10 different ways.  You don’t agree with it? Fine.  But it’s not something that I’m making up, I see their weariness and skepticism.   They won’t tolerate it.

[meazza]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

 

The public was already beginning to break the stay at home orders weeks ago, the public was weary as it was.  But once the Governors began to play politics by valuing certain people’s rights over others and then many of the public health officials turned out to be hacks, it ended.

 

The public will not accept these frauds to tell them to return back to the hell that were the stay at home orders.  It’s over, there is no return and if some governors attempt to do so they will be defied.

 

Ive only said this probably like 10 different times in 10 different ways.  You don’t agree with it? Fine.  But it’s not something that I’m making up, I see their weariness and skepticism.   They won’t tolerate it.

 

We have the same issue here.  Restaurants should be open soon but no bars or gyms?  Many of these owners have threatened to defy the orders of the government.