keepthefaith Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 1 minute ago, LB3 said: Isn't it up to the states regardless? Even more granular. District level decisions at least in Illinois. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER DOT COM Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, LB3 said: Isn't it up to the states regardless? No. Typically it's district wide. If Trump extols the virtues of federalism, he should allow the governors - and members of his task force - to work without criticism, especially within the first few months of a pandemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LB3 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 1 minute ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said: No. Typically it's district wide. If Trump extols the virtues of federalism, he should allow the governors - and members of his task force - to work without criticism, especially within the first few months of a pandemic. In what industry does anyone work without criticism? Criticism doesn't prevent them from doing their jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 (edited) Deaths all causes vs history. Just stumbled on this. We have talked about wanting to see this. I would not put a ton of faith in the last few bars because the CDC provisional deaths counts can take weeks to sort into categories and be confirmed: Provisional death counts are weighted to account for incomplete data. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Weights are based on completeness of provisional data in prior years, but the timeliness of data may have changed in 2020 relative to prior years, so the resulting weighted estimates may be too high in some jurisdictions and too low in others. As more information about the accuracy of the weighted estimates is obtained, further refinements to the weights may be made, which will impact the estimates. Any changes to the methods or weighting algorithm will be noted in the Technical Notes when they occur. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm Edited July 15, 2020 by shoshin 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bilzfancy Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 There will be no high school football in Virginia this fall. This is bullcrap, for some of those kids it's there only chance to go to college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER DOT COM Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 (edited) 11 minutes ago, LB3 said: In what industry does anyone work without criticism? Criticism doesn't prevent them from doing their jobs. You are right - criticism is found in pretty much every industry. Typically public criticism comes from outsiders - not from inside the company. A good boss/leader does not publicly criticize those who work under him/her. If Terry Pegula publicly humiliated his head coach and GM on a weekly basis that would be condemned, rightfully so, by everyone on this forum. Edited July 15, 2020 by wAcKy ZeBrA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LB3 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said: You are right - criticism is found in pretty much every industry. Typically public criticism it comes from outsiders - not from inside the company. A good boss/leader does not publicly criticize those who work under him/her. If Terry Pegula publicly humiliated his head coach and GM on a weekly basis that would be condemned, rightfully so, by everyone on this forum. Tact and Trump are like me and onions. They don't mix. 8 minutes ago, shoshin said: Deaths all causes vs history. Just stumbled on this. We have talked about wanting to see this. I would not put a ton of faith in the last few bars because the CDC provisional deaths counts can take weeks to sort into categories and be confirmed: Provisional death counts are weighted to account for incomplete data. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Weights are based on completeness of provisional data in prior years, but the timeliness of data may have changed in 2020 relative to prior years, so the resulting weighted estimates may be too high in some jurisdictions and too low in others. As more information about the accuracy of the weighted estimates is obtained, further refinements to the weights may be made, which will impact the estimates. Any changes to the methods or weighting algorithm will be noted in the Technical Notes when they occur. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm IF the last few bars are accurate and level off there for a little while, it will be very telling. That's the lowest level on the entire chart. It would lead me to believe that people that were going to pass, passed sooner. Good find. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, LB3 said: Tact and Trump are like me and onions. They don't mix. IF the last few bars are accurate and level off there for a little while, it will be very telling. That's the lowest level on the entire chart. It would lead me to believe that people that were going to pass, passed sooner. Good find. The last few bars are 100% not accurate. The CDC provisional death totals always trail, though they do try to do some projecting. Here are FL and AZ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 30 minutes ago, shoshin said: Deaths all causes vs history. Just stumbled on this. We have talked about wanting to see this. I would not put a ton of faith in the last few bars because the CDC provisional deaths counts can take weeks to sort into categories and be confirmed: Provisional death counts are weighted to account for incomplete data. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Weights are based on completeness of provisional data in prior years, but the timeliness of data may have changed in 2020 relative to prior years, so the resulting weighted estimates may be too high in some jurisdictions and too low in others. As more information about the accuracy of the weighted estimates is obtained, further refinements to the weights may be made, which will impact the estimates. Any changes to the methods or weighting algorithm will be noted in the Technical Notes when they occur. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm Yes I saw that last week. I was going to post about it. This is truly something else, it shows that overall deaths from all causes are less than what they normally are COVID or no COVID. I wonder if that is just a small statistical blip. 25 minutes ago, LB3 said: IF the last few bars are accurate and level off there for a little while, it will be very telling. That's the lowest level on the entire chart. It would lead me to believe that people that were going to pass, passed sooner. Good find. Hmmm. I'm going to need to put some thought into that. That is a very interesting theory and I think you may be on to something. Because we do know that the average age of the COVID death is 81 with 2.7 comorbidites, which means that many already had one foot in the grave. It would make sense that the Virus accelerated their death by a few months which could plausibly explain why you are seeing less overall deaths. Essentially it front loaded the deaths. They were paid forward. I hadn't thought of that. Good stuff LB3. I need to have that marinate for a bit and see if I can poke some holes into that theory. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reality Check Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 40 minutes ago, B-Man said: What a surprise... lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
123719bwiqrb Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 45 minutes ago, B-Man said: What does this mean? Falsification of test records, or defective testing methodology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shoshin Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 58 minutes ago, Magox said: Yes I saw that last week. I was going to post about it. This is truly something else, it shows that overall deaths from all causes are less than what they normally are COVID or no COVID. I wonder if that is just a small statistical blip. The thing I can't figure out, and @Hapless Bills Fan just asked me this too, is why the normal line is higher than the actuals. I don't see an explanation on the CDC website but I'm looking into it in my part-time job as a COVID-19 data scientist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillStime Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 2 hours ago, Big Blitz said: No I think this was what he said about masks......in his FIRST SIGNIFICANT APPEARANCE to the nation on March 8.....which by the way this clip from this interview has been scrubbed from the internet and if you search it on YouTube you get a link to Fact Check.org which calls it "out of context" and gives the most asinine reasons why: Who is POTUS? Who has the final say on everything? Why is it always someone else's fault? You realize anyone not part of the CULT doesn't blame Fauci right? And how many deaths did it take for Trump to put on a MASK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 36 minutes ago, Reality Check said: What a surprise... lol... where does that guy get those numbers? Any idea? Great headline, prolly true..but interwebs and all, not buying all in based on a tweet 13 minutes ago, shoshin said: The thing I can't figure out, and @Hapless Bills Fan just asked me this too, is why the normal line is higher than the actuals. I don't see an explanation on the CDC website but I'm looking into it in my part-time job as a COVID-19 data scientist. i had several questions about the chart, but my question was deemed to political i guess in the other thread. What is your interpretation of the chart? I suck at reading charts, love The Ethical Skeptic on Twitter, can never figure out what they are trying to show either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reality Check Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 27 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said: What does this mean? Falsification of test records, or defective testing methodology? Combine that with overall deaths being down... I would say that some fraud is going on here... But like I said a few months ago... No one was presenting data based on a matrix of all causes of death to view any changes in proportionality while also tracking it vs. let's say a 5 year historical average all causes of death... After all this time, the CDC gave out a narrative of the universe while presenting a view through a keyhole... and no one publicly demanded better information than this day to day myopic garbage... Full of daily speculation... They took the common cold, and rebranded it as Covid 19 to shake trillions of dollars out of us while we are held hostage watching our country get vandalized... No big deal... Biden will fix it... China will be happy... and life would go on... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, BillStime said: Who is POTUS? Who has the final say on everything? Why is it always someone else's fault? You realize anyone not part of the CULT doesn't blame Fauci right? And how many deaths did it take for Trump to put on a MASK? ?? what? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Just now, BillStime said: Who is POTUS? Who has the final say on everything? Why is it always someone else's fault? You realize anyone not part of the CULT doesn't blame Fauci right? And how many deaths did it take for Trump to put on a MASK? here's the thing..anti Trumpers have made Fauci into an infallible God like human. However, he has been a wrong a ton in this pandemic..shocking, its a new virus and he is human. Dude deserves all of our respect, he knows way more than any of us hacks about infectious disease..but does not mean he is infallible. He did himself no favors with the " i was concerned about heathcare workers" remark...people saw right through that.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillStime Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 Just now, plenzmd1 said: here's the thing..anti Trumpers have made Fauci into an infallible God like human. However, he has been a wrong a ton in this pandemic..shocking, its a new virus and he is human. Dude deserves all of our respect, he knows way more than any of us hacks about infectious disease..but does not mean he is infallible. He did himself no favors with the " i was concerned about heathcare workers" remark...people saw right through that.. Hmmm... working at the White House is like a revolving door for this admin. Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bilzfancy Posted July 15, 2020 Share Posted July 15, 2020 What's gonna happen if and when this virus mutates, like most viruses do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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