Smoke vs Hopkins stats this year

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

18 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

I'm all for the John Brown love but let's not get carried away here.  Hopkins is a dominant potential HOF player who can take over a game if you are not careful.  Didn't have his best season this year in terms of going downfield, but is still a dangerous weapon.  Brown meanwhile had the best season of his career and while it would be nice to believe he could repeat this next year and the year after, right now it's a complete outlier for him. Hopkins has already had 3 years of 100+ receptions and 5 years of 1,000+ yards.

I never said anything about their overall careers, so I don't know why you would give me a rundown of Hopkin's career numbers? I was just replying to a poster saying Hopkins having almost 50% more catches was significantly more productive(In the NFL yards matter more than catches) and how much that one extra first down a game really mattered in the scheme of things. In the end Brown has been better when targeted this year even though A.) He doesn't have Watson throwing to him B.) He doesn't have the chemistry with Allen that Hopkins & Watson have. It's not really close. Statistically it's Hopkins second worst year since he had to share catches with Andre Johnson. The only season worse was when Osweiler & Savage were throwing to him.

[Jay_Fixit]

9 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

At this point, Hopkins may be a bit better than John Brown. But a Hopkins covered by Tre'davious White is a lot worse than a John Brown covered by Jonathan Joseph or Lonnie Johnson. Just saying.

What is this crap?

[Dunkirk Donski]

Just now, Jay_Fixit said:

What is this crap?

Dick Jauron went 13-3 for Chicago in 2001.  He's probably a better coach than McClappy.

[Da webster guy]

Yeah I posted this because I love Hop as a fantasy player and usually have the guy on my team.  As a result, I watch the shorcut version of the offense on DVR and I've seen pretty much every Houston offensive play this year.   He and Deshaun are kind of the same player in that they'll blow your mind one minute and then go flat for quite awhile this past season.   

 

Started thinking about how consistent John Brown is and how many 3rd downs he converted being wide open even when they knew Josh was likely going to him.  Looking at the numbers confirmed it for me.  DHop is hall of fame quality but having a bit of a down year and Brown had a strong year. 

 

To my idiot eyeball test, Brown is better at getting open and he's simply done more NUMBERS wise per target than Hopkins.  Hop may be the league leader in snagging balls when he's covered, great high pointer, body lean into the CB, hand control, etc. and he didn't get credited with a single dropped pass in 2018 which has to be a record on more than 100 targets.  I still think Brown is his equal this season in productivity.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

At this point, Hopkins may be a bit better than John Brown. But a Hopkins covered by Tre'davious White is a lot worse than a John Brown covered by Jonathan Joseph or Lonnie Johnson. Just saying.

 

I love John Brown.  I love his team-first attitude.  I love his can-do spirit.  I love the way he shoulders blame when he doesn't make the catch, maybe more than his share of it.

 

But Man, he's not on the same WR planet as Nuk.  Hopkins has a 3 foot vertical leap and can regularly haul in balls that hit his fingers.  He makes those contested catches.  All. The. Time.

 

Brown is a hardworking, smooth and reliable route runner but he can get out-muscled and shoved off his routes by physical man coverage.

[Augie]

22 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I love John Brown.  I love his team-first attitude.  I love his can-do spirit.  I love the way he shoulders blame when he doesn't make the catch, maybe more than his share of it.

 

But Man, he's not on the same WR planet as Nuk.  Hopkins has a 3 foot vertical leap and can regularly haul in balls that hit his fingers.  He makes those contested catches.  All. The. Time.

 

Brown is a hardworking, smooth and reliable route runner but he can get out-muscled and shoved off his routes by physical man coverage.

 

I must admit I’m pleasantly surprised by the stat comparison, but I  wonder how many Bills fans would turn down a straight up trade. I’m guessing that would be......zero? Now, what would you have to toss in to make it happen. That would be telling. 

[SinceThe70s]

@Da webster guy

 

Fascinating stats. Two things that stuck out to me: on 35 more targets, Hopkins had 32 more catches but only 105 more yards. The 32 catches on 35 extra targets suggests better hands or a more accurate QB (cue the Allen haters). The comparable yardage suggests a lot of 'less productive' catches. I looked up how many first down receptions they had: 53 for Brown (74% of his receptions), 68 for Hopkins (65%)  which is pretty much a wash for me and suggests that my 'less productive' insinuation was wrong.

 

Anyway, I didn't get the impression you were making the point that Brown was better then Hopkins, just that the production this year was comparable. Stats are great, the eye tests are great, but neither should be ignored. For tomorrow, I'm sure the Bills won't overlook Hopkins because of the stats.

[wppete]

Hopkins is going against the best CB in the NFL and Brown is going against one of the worst DB groups in the NFL. Feeling good about Tomorrow! 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I must admit I’m pleasantly surprised by the stat comparison, but I  wonder how many Bills fans would turn down a straight up trade. I’m guessing that would be......zero? Now, what would you have to toss in to make it happen. That would be telling. 

This year I'd probably would go with Smoke. Hopkins has Fuller & Stills so he's been better protected than Brown who has had Beasley only. And I would ask what do you think Brown would've finished with this year if he had the 35 more targets Hopkins had AND Watson throwing him the ball OR the 35 more targets AND he & Allen were on their 3rd year together like Hopkins & Watson? Hopkins had all the advantages, 35 more targets, a better QB(Currently) & better chemistry with his QB, but finished with only 105 more yards and 1 more TD.

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

This year I'd probably would go with Smoke. Hopkins has Fuller & Stills so he's been better protected than Brown who has had Beasley only. And I would ask what do you think Brown would've finished with this year if he had the 35 more targets Hopkins had AND Watson throwing him the ball OR the 35 more targets AND he & Allen were on their 3rd year together like Hopkins & Watson? Hopkins had all the advantages, 35 more targets, a better QB(Currently) & better chemistry with his QB, but finished with only 105 more yards and 1 more TD.

 

.So...you would NOT trade Smoke for Hopkins, straight up? That was the question. 

 

I love our guys, but.......

[NoSaint]

23 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

D Hopkins targeted 150 times caught 104 balls    1,165 yards 7 TD's

John Brown targeted 115 times caught 72 balls   1,060 yards 6 TD's

 

Both dudes sat out week 17

 

Hop averaged just 7 yards per game more than Smoke , with one more touchdown on the year despite 35 more targets.

 

He makes amazing catches, but he's not significantly more productive than Brown this season. 

If you look at yards and/or points per target, Brown comes out quite a bit ahead.

 

I'm guessing Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson are probably worrying Frasier and McD more than Hopkins, despite all the press he's getting.

 

 

comparing browns best year to Hopkins 5th(?) best? And Hopkins is still ahead?

 

yea, I’d say Hopkins would be proven the much better player at that point. Though browns been a great contributor on a reasonable contract.

[SinceThe70s]

4 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

comparing browns best year to Hopkins 5th(?) best? And Hopkins is still ahead?

 

yea, I’d say Hopkins would be proven the much better player at that point. Though browns been a great contributor on a reasonable contract.

 

At the risk of speaking for OP, I think his point was about current year productivity, not a comparison of their careers. And I didn't think he was saying Brown was better than Hopkins. Where I think OP over stepped was:

 

"I'm guessing Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson are probably worrying Frasier and McD more than Hopkins,"

[NoSaint]

5 minutes ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

At the risk of speaking for OP, I think his point was about current year productivity, not a comparison of their careers. And I didn't think he was saying Brown was better than Hopkins. Where I think OP over stepped was:

 

"I'm guessing Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson are probably worrying Frasier and McD more than Hopkins,"

but by narrowing it so much and having it be a best in career compared below average- to isolate them makes little sense or point is my point. 

Hopkins is a much better player, I even if the 2019 stat line is relatively close.

 

 

 

[SinceThe70s]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

but by narrowing it so much and having it be a best in career compared below average- to isolate them makes little sense or point is my point. 

Hopkins is a much better player, I even if the 2019 stat line is relatively close.

 

 

 

 

I don't think OP ever asserted that Hopkins was better than Brown, he just made an interesting statistical comparison between the two for this year. OP's assertion that McD and company should be more concerned with Hyde and Duke as a result is unfounded IMO.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Off the subject, but funny to consider how few 1,000-yard receivers we have had over the last decade or so. I think you had a stretch where Stevie had a few 1,000 yard years like that, and maybe one with Sammy. Forget about having anyone, like a Hopkins, who can catch 100-120 balls each year! 
 

The JB/Beasley combo has probably been the most productive based on catches and yards from a 1 and 2 the Bills have had since Moulds/Price. 

[GregPersons]

4 hours ago, Augie said:

I must admit I’m pleasantly surprised by the stat comparison, but I  wonder how many Bills fans would turn down a straight up trade. I’m guessing that would be......zero? Now, what would you have to toss in to make it happen. That would be telling. 

 

I think it's okay to give our guys more credit here. Of course Hopkins is the superior player in the long view. But the stats are pleasantly surprising because this is a production based business. This year, fluke or not, Brown was comparable in production to Hopkins, and that's pretty cool.

 

It's like, I don't know who's stats Allen is most similar to in a limited view, but if his production this year was comparable to Drew Brees or Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes, that would be a cause for celebration. Would you turn down trading for any of those guys? Probably same answer as wanting to trade Brown for Hopkins. 

 

Stats don't tell the whole story, etc, but.  Learn to take the W, my friends.

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

I don't think OP ever asserted that Hopkins was better than Brown, he just made an interesting statistical comparison between the two for this year. OP's assertion that McD and company should be more concerned with Hyde and Duke as a result is unfounded IMO.

Even if true- it’s incredibly uninteresting to just randomly throw up some poorly contextualized stats without implying any opinions from them. 
 

whether he’s saying browns better than given credit for or Hopkins isn’t as good - he’s implying SOMETHING by putting the two side by side, otherwise he could be posting the return on his 401k and what colors he sees in the sky when he looks out his window to the same effect. 
 

and given the context of those two WRs careers, theres unfortunately a gap that favors the guy that he’s trying to say there isn’t a large gap in favor of. 

[SinceThe70s]

59 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

Even if true- it’s incredibly uninteresting to just randomly throw up some poorly contextualized stats without implying any opinions from them. 
 

whether he’s saying browns better than given credit for or Hopkins isn’t as good - he’s implying SOMETHING by putting the two side by side, otherwise he could be posting the return on his 401k and what colors he sees in the sky when he looks out his window to the same effect. 
 

and given the context of those two WRs careers, theres unfortunately a gap that favors the guy that he’s trying to say there isn’t a large gap in favor of. 

 

On the matter of incredibly uninteresting, we disagree. I found it interesting that he posted stats which on the surface suggested there wasn't such a large gap between the contributions of the two players this year.  Doesn't mean that the stats prove that. On the contrary,  I took a superficial attempt at substantiating the 'implication' by looking at first down receptions and came up empty.  

 

And I don't think OP needed to imply any opinion when he specifically said the Bills should worry more about the RB's than Hopkins due to the stats. On that matter OP and I disagree.

 

[NoSaint]

11 minutes ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

On the matter of incredibly uninteresting, we disagree. I found it interesting that he posted stats which on the surface suggested there wasn't such a large gap between the contributions of the two players this year.  Doesn't mean that the stats prove that. On the contrary,  I took a superficial attempt at substantiating the 'implication' by looking at first down receptions and came up empty.  

 

And I don't think OP needed to imply any opinion when he specifically said the Bills should worry more about the RB's than Hopkins due to the stats. On that matter OP and I disagree.

 

 

well, his laying the stats side by side with that added commentary I think warrants push back that Hopkins is indeed a better player. Browns good, Hopkins is great. 
 

and if you find his post interesting, more power to you. I don’t think it was particularly productive. 

[SinceThe70s]

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

well, his laying the stats side by side with that added commentary I think warrants push back that Hopkins is indeed a better player. Browns good, Hopkins is great. 
 

and if you find his post interesting, more power to you. I don’t think it was particularly productive. 

 

Agreed on the push back and Hopkins being the (IMO much) better player.  I happen to like the stats vs. eye test debates.

 

But are any posts here particularly productive? 

 

8 hours left to kill. Go Bills!