BH13's 2019 QB Efficiency Ratings

[BuffaloHokie13]

Well, I missed most of the season as far as posts go, but I can't miss the final. I'll also be doing a more Allen specific post separately with splits, progression, etc. I suspect people will be as surprised by #3 as I was, so this should be interesting! 

 

FAQs:

QB Rating is my personal equation. It factors in attempts per game, yards per touch, td%, and to% to generate an efficiency score compared to their peers. 

 

Fumbles is only accounting for lost fumbles, as I use it to track turnovers. 

 

Playoff QBs rank 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 16, and 19 by my metric.

 

If you see an error otherwise please let me know! I do the data entry manually on a weekly basis, so mistakes can happen. 

 

Click on the image to enlarge it.

[Jobot]

Very cool!

Why not include all fumbles? Most of the time it can be random chance that you lose the fumble.

 

Also - quarter by quarter comparison would be interesting as I would expect Allen to move up the ranks as each quarter progresses.

 

Nice work.

[billsfan1959]

I haven't had time to go through all the numbers; however, at first glance, I wouldn't have much argument with it. I enjoy crunching numbers on the QBs myself and, the fact is, Tannehill at #3 doesn't surprise me at all. He has been having a really good year. He's played well and also has been the beneficiary of being at the top of the league in YAC per attempt and completion, being in the top ten in lowest % of dropped passes, and having solid pass blocking in front of him (particularly when blitzed - he's been blitzed the 9th most, but has the 2nd most amount of time between the snap and pressure/throw when blitzed).

[Chaos]

Without supplying the formula its hard to validate whether or not it is any more logical than simply using passer rating.  But It looks like you had fun doing it. 

Personally, I think the gap in QB evaluation is largely around situational analysis and offensive style  .

For example:

QB 1 throws 4 yd completion 4 yd completion 4 yard completion. 12 yards and a first down  = Passer Rating = 79
QB 2 throws ball incomplete, throws incomplete, throws 12 yard completion. 12 yards and a first down = Passer rating = 46
QB 3 throws ball incomplete, throws incomplete, throws 35 yard completion. 35 yards and a first down = passer rating = 79
QB 4 throw ball 30 yards, throws ball 30 yards, throws interception 2 first downs and a turnover, passer rating = passer rating = 70 

 

QB 1 is what I would call "Brady Style"   QB2 is "Josh Style" nobody is really QB 3.  QB4 is "Winston Style". 

In terms of results,  QB1 QB2 and QB3 should all lead to plenty of scoring drives.  Its hard to say QB 4 is clearly better than QB 2.  

I have my own theory that the best measure may be "points per drive start vs expected points per drive start".    QB A starts on own 20 and leads the team to a field goal.   QB  B starts on the opponents 10 and leads the team to a TD.   Which QB did a more effective job leading the offense?  

Statistically drives starting on  your own 20 net 0.4 points on average.  So  field goal in that situation is generate 2.6 points above expected. 
Drives starting from the opponents 10 statistically generate 4.5 points per drive.  So a TD generates 2.5 above expected results. Both drives above average and pretty similar in results.   If someone tracked every drive you would have a pretty solid measure of offensive success compared to expected success. 

You could also take it one step further and measure the offensives result, not just by points scored or not, but  expected points resulting  from field position for the opponent . 

Also it should be noted that "Expected Results" is something that probably needs to be more dynamic than league average.  Not every schedule offers similarly tough Defenses to play against. 
 

Edited January 2, 2020 by Chaos

[BuffaloHokie13]

33 minutes ago, Chaos said:

For example:

QB 1 throws 4 yd completion 4 yd completion 4 yard completion. 12 yards and a first down  = Passer Rating = 79
QB 2 throws ball incomplete, throws incomplete, throws 12 yard completion. 12 yards and a first down = Passer rating = 46
QB 3 throws ball incomplete, throws incomplete, throws 35 yard completion. 35 yards and a first down = passer rating = 79
QB 4 throw ball 30 yards, throws ball 30 yards, throws interception 2 first downs and a turnover, passer rating = passer rating = 70 

Passer rating and any/a are included as columns to show how it differs ranking-wise. I know the piece I quoted is probably a quick example, but the sample size is simply far too small for my system to function. It includes all pass attempts, rush attempts, and sacks over the course of a season. Minimum attempts to qualify this year was 250. Based on how my rankings have come out over the past few years I'm comfortable saying that at the right sample size a lot of the points you want to contextualize become a wash (at least for this exercise). It's not intended to be predictive, so much as to put numbers to the 'who did best this year' rankings. With 10 of the top 12 being QBs for playoff teams, I think it's still functioning as intended.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Looks pretty good at first glance. The only quibble Is having Jameis Winston as high as he is, the 30 interceptions ring loudly to me.

[BuffaloHokie13]

8 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Looks pretty good at first glance. The only quibble Is having Jameis Winston as high as he is, the 30 interceptions ring loudly to me.

Yeah, he's being held up by his yards per touch and how much he was asked to do.

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Looks pretty good at first glance. The only quibble Is having Jameis Winston as high as he is, the 30 interceptions ring loudly to me.

 

In today's era where nobody throws INT's that is unbelievable.  That would have led the league back in the Kelly era where mid teen to low 20 numbers of INTs were commonplace. Craziest part about it is Winston doesn't see it as an issue and said he is just going to keep slinging it.  

Edited January 2, 2020 by matter2003

[DCOrange]

2 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

In today's era where nobody throws INT's that is unbelievable.  That would have led the league back in the Kelly era where mid teen to low 20 numbers of INTs were commonplace. Craziest part about it is Winston doesn't see it as an issue and said he is just going to keep slinging it.  

That's not true. He's literally said almost every single week this year that he knows it's something he needs to fix to the point that fans are rolling their eyes because it's gotten so repetitive while nothing is really changing.

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

That's not true. He's literally said almost every single week this year that he knows it's something he needs to fix to the point that fans are rolling their eyes because it's gotten so repetitive while nothing is really changing.

As a fantasy owner I am well aware of it. It became comical at the end. I think he started like 4 games in a row with a pick in his first 5 attempts. 

[Big Turk]

18 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

That's not true. He's literally said almost every single week this year that he knows it's something he needs to fix to the point that fans are rolling their eyes because it's gotten so repetitive while nothing is really changing.

 

This doesn't sound like a player who sees himself as a problem and in need of a lot of work. He's Ballin'. Check the stat sheet.

 

https://www.tampabay.com/sports/bucs/2019/12/30/beyond-jameis-winstons-check-your-sheet-comment/

“We all know, c’mon,” Winston said. “We all know what we’ve got to fix. There’s no reason for me to be specific. You look at my numbers and I’m ballin'. I’ve got to stop giving the ball to the other team. That’s not a trick question.”

Two questions later, when asked whether he’s worried that the turnovers will be the reason the Bucs wouldn’t bring him back, Winston said, “That’s the last thing on my mind.”

 

“I’m focused on how I can get better, because I know if I eliminate those, I’m going to be the best,” Winston continued. “So that’s bar none. You better check your sheet. If I eliminate those, I’m going to be the best.”

 

"I know I'm confident in my ability," he also said. "I know I'm going to ball and I know I'm going to fix my mistakes. I know that for a fact. But (my return) is in God's hands and it's in (the Bucs') hands."

Edited January 2, 2020 by matter2003

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Well, I missed most of the season as far as posts go, but I can't miss the final. I'll also be doing a more Allen specific post separately with splits, progression, etc. I suspect people will be as surprised by #3 as I was, so this should be interesting! 

 

FAQs:

QB Rating is my personal equation. It factors in attempts per game, yards per touch, td%, and to% to generate an efficiency score compared to their peers. 

 

Fumbles is only accounting for lost fumbles, as I use it to track turnovers. 

 

Playoff QBs rank 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 16, and 19 by my metric.

 

If you see an error otherwise please let me know! I do the data entry manually on a weekly basis, so mistakes can happen. 

 

Click on the image to enlarge it.

 

I'm really curious about how low Jimmy G. is in your ranking.  Since you know the ins and outs, any idea on why?

 

As you know, I like the fact that you factor in running yards and total turnovers.

16 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 

This doesn't sound like a player who sees himself as a problem and in need of a lot of work. He's Ballin'. Check the stat sheet.

 

https://www.tampabay.com/sports/bucs/2019/12/30/beyond-jameis-winstons-check-your-sheet-comment/

“We all know, c’mon,” Winston said. “We all know what we’ve got to fix. There’s no reason for me to be specific. You look at my numbers and I’m ballin'. I’ve got to stop giving the ball to the other team. That’s not a trick question.”

Two questions later, when asked whether he’s worried that the turnovers will be the reason the Bucs wouldn’t bring him back, Winston said, “That’s the last thing on my mind.”

 

“I’m focused on how I can get better, because I know if I eliminate those, I’m going to be the best,” Winston continued. “So that’s bar none. You better check your sheet. If I eliminate those, I’m going to be the best.”

 

"I know I'm confident in my ability," he also said. "I know I'm going to ball and I know I'm going to fix my mistakes. I know that for a fact. But (my return) is in God's hands and it's in (the Bucs') hands."

 

I have not watched the Bucs this year ..... at all.

 

There are INTs that are fluky, like the bounce off Beasley's thigh or an odd ricochet.

 

Are the majority of Winston's in that category? 

 

Because otherwise, it's not so cinchy to eliminate INTs, without cutting back on passing yards.  It requires a change in field vision, which might just not be the easiest thing for a 5 year vet.

[BuffaloHokie13]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I'm really curious about how low Jimmy G. is in your ranking.  Since you know the ins and outs, any idea on why?

 

As you know, I like the fact that you factor in running yards and total turnovers.

He wasn't asked to do much based on his attempts per game, so he's losing over 9 points there. Slightly above average in YPT and TD%, losing around 3 and 10 points in those categories, and below average on turnover rate, losing around 7 points there.

 

If you were to factor out the attempts per game scaling, Jimmy scores similarly to Carr, Brady, and Rodgers (all high 60's).

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Looks pretty good at first glance. The only quibble Is having Jameis Winston as high as he is, the 30 interceptions ring loudly to me.

 

I felt that too.  I think having almost as many turnovers as TDs should weight more heavily against in any efficiency metric.

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm really curious about how low Jimmy G. is in your ranking.  Since you know the ins and outs, any idea on why?

 

As you know, I like the fact that you factor in running yards and total turnovers.

 

I have not watched the Bucs this year ..... at all.

 

There are INTs that are fluky, like the bounce off Beasley's thigh or an odd ricochet.

 

Are the majority of Winston's in that category? 

 

Because otherwise, it's not so cinchy to eliminate INTs, without cutting back on passing yards.  It requires a change in field vision, which might just not be the easiest thing for a 5 year vet.

 

The majority of Winston's picks are bad decision making. He tries to fit balls where they don't go. Think Fitz on speed. 

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

He wasn't asked to do much based on his attempts per game, so he's losing over 9 points there. Slightly above average in YPT and TD%, losing around 3 and 10 points in those categories, and below average on turnover rate, losing around 7 points there.

 

If you were to factor out the attempts per game scaling, Jimmy scores similarly to Carr, Brady, and Rodgers (all high 60's).

Fits what I see when I watch the Niners play as well. He is imo overrated by a lot of folks due to how scary good Shanahan's system is working and having hands down the most dynamic TE in the game...YAC monster. JG at this point is kind of similar to Goff w/McVay during their SB run; coach is pulling the strings, QB is doing his part but it's primarily the offense making him look good and not necessarily vice versa. 

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

 

In today's era where nobody throws INT's that is unbelievable.  That would have led the league back in the Kelly era where mid teen to low 20 numbers of INTs were commonplace. Craziest part about it is Winston doesn't see it as an issue and said he is just going to keep slinging it.  

Winston being ranked dramatically higher than Jimmy G. makes me question why this would be superior to simply looking at passer rating. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

Winston being ranked dramatically higher than Jimmy G. makes me question why this would be superior to simply looking at passer rating. 

Because passer rating is a bad stat

[Chaos]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Because passer rating is a bad stat

Stipulate that for arguments stake. Why does that mean this new stat is better? 

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Winston being ranked dramatically higher than Jimmy G. makes me question why this would be superior to simply looking at passer rating. 

I don't know that 2.6 points on a 100 point rating is 'dramatically higher'. Other QBs just also happened to score in that same range. Jameis was asked to do something by his team nearly 11 more times per game than Jimmy. Even with the increased demand he had a higher yards per attempt and a td% within .4%. Typically as attempts go up you expect some drop off.