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Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

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2 hours ago, Bsblguy said:

Why do you think burrow has no issues? I love the kid, but he was throwing to a group of receivers in 2019 that is likely more talented than the 2019 Bills  receivers, and likely better than the receivers he will get in Cinci, all against college defenses... I like joe, I think he will be good, I watched him go off live, but he was not driving the ball into tight windows often. He was often hitting receivers that were open by 5-10 yards after being afforded 6 seconds of time by his o-line. 
 

I think he will be solid, maybe great, but it is not like the NFL will be easy for him just because one of his seasons, with an absolutely loaded team around him, looked easy.


Ah, the Mayfield Effect at work? Could be...haven’t had a chance to grind the video on Burrow yet. Just haven’t made QB the priority the last 2 offseasons.

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4 hours ago, Bsblguy said:

Why do you think burrow has no issues? I love the kid, but he was throwing to a group of receivers in 2019 that is likely more talented than the 2019 Bills  receivers, and likely better than the receivers he will get in Cinci, all against college defenses... I like joe, I think he will be good, I watched him go off live, but he was not driving the ball into tight windows often. He was often hitting receivers that were open by 5-10 yards after being afforded 6 seconds of time by his o-line. 
 

I think he will be solid, maybe great, but it is not like the NFL will be easy for him just because one of his seasons, with an absolutely loaded team around him, looked easy.

Let's just say that Beane were to shop Allen for picks.  What do you think he would receive in return?

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4 hours ago, Bsblguy said:

Why do you think burrow has no issues? I love the kid, but he was throwing to a group of receivers in 2019 that is likely more talented than the 2019 Bills  receivers, and likely better than the receivers he will get in Cinci, all against college defenses... I like joe, I think he will be good, I watched him go off live, but he was not driving the ball into tight windows often. He was often hitting receivers that were open by 5-10 yards after being afforded 6 seconds of time by his o-line. 
 

I think he will be solid, maybe great, but it is not like the NFL will be easy for him just because one of his seasons, with an absolutely loaded team around him, looked easy.

 

Burrow to me has a high floor. I think he could come in and play as well as the guy he is replacing - Dalton - immediately. Where his ceiling is would be a fair question though in my book. Think it is probably a top 10 QB but not a top 5 guy. 

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4 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

This is the fallacy in logic called the post hoc fallacy. Joe Burrow has the single greatest season in college history to a guy who was ranked in the bottom 1/3rd of QBs and in his 1st season the flat out worst.

 

Allen will improve, that I have no doubt, but it won’t be stratospheric like Burrow and how do I know? Because it’s never happened before. You can’t take an exception and make it close to a rule.

 

Has Allen improved? Sure but the fact he lacks that coaching is the exact reason why it’s so much harder now. Neuroelasticity is not the same in a guy in his 20’s as a guy as a teenager. It’s the reason why no great chess masters spring out of the blue in their mid-20’s.

 

Burrow never struggled with mechanics, he struggled with mentally analyzing the field and timing. That’s stratospherically different than someone with mechanical issues. Brees is the same as Burrow for that big leap, but that wasn’t mechanical, it was analyzing.

 

So yes I expect improvement, but in the 3-15% range, not in the 100% range like Burrow.

 

To answer your question who is more likely in 5 years to be the great pro? Joe Burrow, his game has less variables to answer. Allen has multiple variables which are unproven. Burrow’s is simple: can you throw with the speed of the pros? Allen’s is the same + can you fix your mechanics + the ability to read the field.


Neuroelasticity.  :lol:  Well done. 

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:


Ah, the Mayfield Effect at work? Could be...haven’t had a chance to grind the video on Burrow yet. Just haven’t made QB the priority the last 2 offseasons.


You will be amazed by his video. 

 

You will be even more amazed at the total lack of diversity in the coverage schemes his offense played against. 

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1 hour ago, Billl said:

Let's just say that Beane were to shop Allen for picks.  What do you think he would receive in return?

 

Currently a 3rd. That's my guess.

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If we take coaching as comparable to teaching, it’s interesting that someone above has claimed you can’t learn much between ages 18 and the early/mid 20’s.  Guess we might as well close all the colleges, grad schools, medical schools, etc., etc.

 

Allen progressed this past year.  There is no neuroelastic reason to assume he won’t continue to learn and progress.  We’ll see how he does.

 

And I teach both neuroanatomy and physiology by the way.

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3 hours ago, Billl said:

Let's just say that Beane were to shop Allen for picks.  What do you think he would receive in return?

 

At minimum it would be two #1's. & two #2's.

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23 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

At minimum it would be two #1's. & two #2's.

Really????? I don't think you actually believe that. Allen has grown and as Bills fans we just have to hope that continues, but there's not a GM in the league who would give up 2 1's and 2 2's. Zero chance in the world. 

 

I think he'd probably fetch a second. POSSIBLY a first.

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1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

At minimum it would be two #1's. & two #2's.


not a chance in heck that would happen but I definitely think there are plenty of coaches around the league that have seen Allen and are in love with his skillset. And most of those coaches certainly think they could hammer out the few weaknesses in his game. So two second rounders or thereabouts would be my guess.

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1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

Really????? I don't think you actually believe that. Allen has grown and as Bills fans we just have to hope that continues, but there's not a GM in the league who would give up 2 1's and 2 2's. Zero chance in the world. 

 

I think he'd probably fetch a second.

 

So you're saying someone could get Allen for the same price that Miami paid to get Rosen?  Really!

 

Allen was the 7th guy taken in the 2018 draft.  He has clearly shown that he is NOT a bust and has flashed serious upside potential.  Allen is a safer bet then Burrow and I think Burrow is fantastic.  But Allen has already at times performed at an elite level in the NFL.

 

There are credible rumors swirling around that Miami might part with THREE 1st round picks to land Burrow.  If Bean offered Allen to Miami for TWO 1st round picks the Dolphins would do it in a heartbeat. 

 

 

 

 

Just now, JoPoy88 said:


not a chance in heck that would happen but I definitely think there are plenty of coaches around the league that have seen Allen and are in love with his skillset. And most of those coaches certainly think they could hammer out the few weaknesses in his game. So two second rounders or thereabouts would be my guess.

 

What part don't you think would happen?  Bean offering to trade Allen or someone giving up 2 first round and 2 second round picks?  I think there is a zero chance Bean offers Allen up for trade.  But if he did I would be shocked if he didn't get a couple of 1st round picks for Allen. 

 

Allen is a top 10 pick who is on the cusp of being a top flight QB.  If Rosen was worth a 2nd Allen is worth two 1st round picks.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

So you're saying someone could get Allen for the same price that Miami paid to get Rosen?  Really!

 

Allen was the 7th guy taken in the 2018 draft.  He has clearly shown that he is NOT a bust and has flashed serious upside potential.  Allen is a safer bet then Burrow and I think Burrow is fantastic.  But Allen has already at times performed at an elite level in the NFL.

 

There are credible rumors swirling around that Miami might part with THREE 1st round picks to land Burrow.  If Bean offered Allen to Miami for TWO 1st round picks the Dolphins would do it in a heartbeat. 

 

 

Listen. We all like Allen and hope it works out. But he remains one of the lowest rated passers in the league 2 years in. I don't think he's overperformed his expectations. I don't think he's PROVEN that he can overcome the deficiencies that plagued him in college. I think his stock would be slightly down. I mean, maybe a late first. Definitely not 2 1's and 2 2's. That's just hyperbolic for no reason.

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6 hours ago, thebandit27 said:


Ah, the Mayfield Effect at work? Could be...haven’t had a chance to grind the video on Burrow yet. Just haven’t made QB the priority the last 2 offseasons.

Mayfield definitely had an off year, but he looked pretty good against the Bills. I'm not sure how much of his struggles were him and how much was Kitchens. 

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13 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

So you're saying someone could get Allen for the same price that Miami paid to get Rosen?  Really!

 

Allen was the 7th guy taken in the 2018 draft.  He has clearly shown that he is NOT a bust and has flashed serious upside potential.  Allen is a safer bet then Burrow and I think Burrow is fantastic.  But Allen has already at times performed at an elite level in the NFL.

 

There are credible rumors swirling around that Miami might part with THREE 1st round picks to land Burrow.  If Bean offered Allen to Miami for TWO 1st round picks the Dolphins would do it in a heartbeat. 

 

 

 

 

 

What part don't you think would happen?  Bean offering to trade Allen or someone giving up 2 first round and 2 second round picks?  I think there is a zero chance Bean offers Allen up for trade.  But if he did I would be shocked if he didn't get a couple of 1st round picks for Allen. 

 

Allen is a top 10 pick who is on the cusp of being a top flight QB.  If Rosen was worth a 2nd Allen is worth two 1st round picks.

 

 


The bolded is where we disagree and probably why our opinions differ on the pick compensation. I am still unsure about how close to that cusp Allen is. But if you think he’s there on the brink that’s all good. I certainly hope you’re right.

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30 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Listen. We all like Allen and hope it works out. But he remains one of the lowest rated passers in the league 2 years in. I don't think he's overperformed his expectations. I don't think he's PROVEN that he can overcome the deficiencies that plagued him in college. I think his stock would be slightly down. I mean, maybe a late first. Definitely not 2 1's and 2 2's. That's just hyperbolic for no reason.

 

So you think Allen is worth about as much as Rosen?  I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.

 

But when other GM's consider Allen they will start with the criteria they used in 2018 - awesome physical tools & HUGE upside but also very raw and needs a lot of work.  But they will then factor in the last 2 years where as a starting NFL QB Allen still has those awesome tools & HUGE upside but also demonstrated that his downside is nowhere near as low as they might have worried about in 2018.  This means that IMO they would be willing to part with two 1st round picks to get him today.

 

Let's look at this question another way. Given what we know TODAY, If the NFL had a do over for the 2018 draft I think the Browns & Jets take Allen over Mayfield & Darnold.  I think the Bills still draft Allen over Mayfield & Darnold even if all 3 were available to the Bills at #7.  The interesting question is where would Jackson be picked?

 

And it's not hyperbolic.  I'm stunned that folks think Allen, who was picked #7 in the 1st round of 2018 would FALL in value 2 years later after showing he was at a MINIMUM a starting caliber QB.  To me that's a case of NEGATIVE hyperbole.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

 

Let's look at this question another way. Given what we know TODAY, If the NFL had a do over for the 2018 draft I think the Browns & Jets take Allen over Mayfield & Darnold.  I think the Bills still draft Allen over Mayfield & Darnold even if all 3 were available to the Bills at #7.  The interesting question is where would Jackson be picked?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think Allen and Jackson appear to be the best QB's in that class, but at this point, it's a poor barometer. It's starting to look like the class itself is more like 1999 than 1984. 99 was billed as a generation class. Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Donovan McNabb, Cade McNown, Daunte Culpepper. McNabb had a great deal of success and Culpepper had some, but none of them were "great." McNabb is close, but great? I don't think so.

 

There's no guarantee that ANY of the QB's will work out long term. I would say Allen and Jackson have the best shot, but they both have some red flags. Obviously Jackson has accomplished more and would garner more in a trade than Allen, but there are serious questions about his longevity.

 

I will say I'd rather have Allen than Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield. 

 

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If the draft was done again, Lamar would go first.  I don't think there would be any more of a consensus after that today than there was back then.  You can pick the other three out of a hat.

 

Allen would likely fetch a late first rounder or early second today, IMO.  Rosen might bring a half full bag of footballs.

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48 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I think Allen and Jackson appear to be the best QB's in that class, but at this point, it's a poor barometer. It's starting to look like the class itself is more like 1999 than 1984. 99 was billed as a generation class. Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Donovan McNabb, Cade McNown, Daunte Culpepper. McNabb had a great deal of success and Culpepper had some, but none of them were "great." McNabb is close, but great? I don't think so.

 

There's no guarantee that ANY of the QB's will work out long term. I would say Allen and Jackson have the best shot, but they both have some red flags. Obviously Jackson has accomplished more and would garner more in a trade than Allen, but there are serious questions about his longevity.

 

I will say I'd rather have Allen than Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield. 

 

Why would Jackson have more longevity issues than Josh?  Allen has been injured constantly throughout his playing career.  He broke his collarbone in high school.  He broke his right clavicle in 7 places in his first college start.  He missed multiple games his last year in college due to a sprained shoulder.  He missed multiple games his rookie season, and he got knocked out of the Patriots game this year.

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1 minute ago, Billl said:

Why would Jackson have more longevity issues than Josh?  Allen has been injured constantly throughout his playing career.  He broke his collarbone in high school.  He broke his right clavicle in 7 places in his first college start.  He missed multiple games his last year in college due to a sprained shoulder.  He missed multiple games his rookie season, and he got knocked out of the Patriots game this year.

I acknowledged that they BOTH have issues, and I would consider longevity one of them with Josh. He's got to get better as a passer because he takes too many shots when he takes off. The problem is that it's a major strength for Allen right now, so until his passing improves, he's gotta keep running. I'm really looking at year 3 as a big season for Allen. He took a big step in 2019. If he takes another big step, we're on to something. If he remains stagnant or only slightly improves, I'll be concerned.

 

Seems like you're nitpicking Bill.

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6 hours ago, Billl said:

Let's just say that Beane were to shop Allen for picks.  What do you think he would receive in return?

 

What's your purpose in asking this question?  It was asked in response to someone talking about this year's current top QB prospect, Joe Burrow, which might imply that you were trying to compare Allen to Burrow by asking what folks think Allen's current draft value would be?

 

I don't think that's a useful metric if that's what you're trying to get at.  Here's why: No team drafts a QB high in the 1st unless they feel he's got potential to become The Man, their franchise QB.  Therefore, if the drafting team gives up after only 2 years and makes him available in a trade, they've decided he's 100% not the guy they thought he was.  Simply the fact that the team that drafted him and works with him every day makes him available devalues him. 

 

 

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12 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

(snippity)

Has Allen improved? Sure but the fact he lacks that coaching is the exact reason why it’s so much harder now. Neuroelasticity is not the same in a guy in his 20’s as a guy as a teenager. It’s the reason why no great chess masters spring out of the blue in their mid-20’s.

 

Well....I can't speak for chess masters, but the latest and greatest on neurological development now seems to have reached a consensus that the human brain isn't fully developed until the mid 20s, with developmental changes especially pronounced in the prefrontal cortex (governs judgement and decision making - AHEM Josh Lateral?).

 

Here's a popular piece I found on a quick search  that seems like a reasonable discussion of this.

 

Bottom line, I believe current neuroscience on human brain development would overall disagree.  But an additional factor is the individual.  Josh literally was still physically developing during college.  One article said he didn't have to shave until his Wyoming Sr year and his coaches and teammates gave him crap about it.  Does that mean his brain is still in the same stage of neuroelasticity as an 19 yr old who hit his growth spurt at age 16-17?   I don't think enough is known about this, but if the growth plates in the bones are still open I wouldn't bet against development in an organ, the brain, that's said to be still developing 6-10 yrs after the bone growth plates close.

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