Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[19Bills83]

12 hours ago, Real McNasty said:

amazing vid on Allen and how he got here!

 

That was pretty cool. I didn't know about the admiration about attending Fresno State. That worked out real well for them :).

Edited January 25, 2020 by 19Bills83
:)

[Real McClappy]

2 minutes ago, 19Bills83 said:

That was pretty cool. I didn't know about the admiration about attending Fresno State. That worked out real well for them :).

Right? I didn't know about the Wentz connection and why he didn't enter the draft a year earlier. 

[BigBillsFan]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Ok, Whoa.  Mechanics and accuracy I get.  I in fact agree with this, since Allen is widely acknowledged to need work on his mechanics and that affects his accuracy at times.

 

But "pedigree in college"?  Since when is that an appropriate metric for QB arm quality?  There's too much impact from the quality of the other players, the quality of the competition, etc.

 

I agree with everything else you wrote but here we diverge. One of the qualities of measuring one's arm was by the competition they played around. "Could they throw that against better compeition?" would be a measure of one's arm talent.

 

Teams only drafted out of the 1st round on prospects who weren't NCAA Div I non-power talent. Their arm talent was comprised not merely of how powerful they could throw it, but how they did against CBs who would later be in the pros.

 

Wentz & Big Ben broke the mold, but the reason why people stay with convention is because the convention works.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/4/2/16913670/josh-allen-wyoming-nfl-draft-college-schedule-strength-opponents

How Josh Allen compares to previous 1st-round QBs from non-power conferences

Year	Player	College rating	College yards/throw
2000	Chad Pennington (Marshall)	157.6	8.6
2002	Patrick Ramsey (Tulane)	126.0	6.8
2002	David Carr (Fresno State)	151.2	8.3
2003	Byron Leftwich (Marshall)	150.9	8.3
2004	J.P. Losman (Tulane)	129.8	6.8
2004	Ben Roethlisberger (Miami, OH)	151.3	8.3
2005	Alex Smith (Utah)	164.4	8.9
2008	Joe Flacco (Delaware)	137.8	7.5
2014	Blake Bortles (UCF)	153.8	8.5
2016	Paxton Lynch (Memphis)	137.0	7.4
2016	Carson Wentz (North Dakota State)	153.9	8.4
2018	Josh Allen (Wyoming)	137.7	7.8

[Hapless Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

I agree with everything else you wrote but here we diverge. One of the qualities of measuring one's arm was by the competition they played around. "Could they throw that against better compeition?" would be a measure of one's arm talent.

 

Teams only drafted out of the 1st round on prospects who weren't NCAA Div I non-power talent. Their arm talent was comprised not merely of how powerful they could throw it, but how they did against CBs who would later be in the pros.

 

Wentz & Big Ben broke the mold, but the reason why people stay with convention is because the convention works.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/4/2/16913670/josh-allen-wyoming-nfl-draft-college-schedule-strength-opponents

How Josh Allen compares to previous 1st-round QBs from non-power conferences

Year	Player	College rating	College yards/throw
2000	Chad Pennington (Marshall)	157.6	8.6
2002	Patrick Ramsey (Tulane)	126.0	6.8
2002	David Carr (Fresno State)	151.2	8.3
2003	Byron Leftwich (Marshall)	150.9	8.3
2004	J.P. Losman (Tulane)	129.8	6.8
2004	Ben Roethlisberger (Miami, OH)	151.3	8.3
2005	Alex Smith (Utah)	164.4	8.9
2008	Joe Flacco (Delaware)	137.8	7.5
2014	Blake Bortles (UCF)	153.8	8.5
2016	Paxton Lynch (Memphis)	137.0	7.4
2016	Carson Wentz (North Dakota State)	153.9	8.4
2018	Josh Allen (Wyoming)	137.7	7.8

 

Good post, thanks.

Interesting list because of the 12 guys, there are 4 besides Allen who are or were at one time regarded as franchise guys. 

Which is kind of the same as the overall success rate of 1st round QB of 15-30%, depending upon how one defines success etc. ?‍♂️

 

I suppose it makes sense - the saying in the old mainframe days used to be "no one ever got fired for buying IBM" (drafting NCAA DI power talent), so for a guy outside that mold to even be considered he must be exceptional enough in some way to make up for it.

[transplantbillsfan]

21 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

so all Allen needs to show his true potential is two elite wideouts and an elite tight end. Seriously that’s where your argument is veering towards because you’re so obstinate against anyone is this ridiculously long thread offering valid Allen criticism.

 

fanboyism at its finest. 

 

First of all... yes, for any QB to show their true potential the weapons around them should be about as good as they can be.

 

Isn't that obvious?

 

Aaron Rodgers, arguably the most talented QB in NFL history, has only won 1 Superbowl.

 

Sooooo... what's held him back?

 

Just look at Mahomes throwing to Cheetah, Kelce and Sammy with other talented guys surrounding him. And to top it off, he sat for a year under a very capable vet and has an offensive genius as a Head Coach.

 

Those crying over the fact we passed over Mahomes are forgivable because of what he's doing in the league, but he also benefits from 2 Elite wideouts and the best Tight End in the NFL for the last few years along with a head coach who just knows how to call plays.

 

As for Allen, I've come to terms that he won't likely ever put up those types of video game numbers, but regardless of how much he gets better at QB, I just doubt it will ever be a Sean McDermott type of game.

 

We don't need 2 Elite WRs.

 

All I want is a single upgrade with a big WR who can go up and ***** those one on one balls and I want Knox to improve this offseason in terms of catching the ball. Do those things along with a positional upgrade on OL and a complementary RB and I think Allen keeps getting better.

Edited January 26, 2020 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

19 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Peyton Manning is an All Time Great, let’s compare his last season with Josh’s! Then we can say he’s better than Peyton AND Brady!

 

Well, so would you trade Allen for Brady straight up today?

 

And what about the fact that Goff and Wentz had a lower on target percentage than Allen?

18 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

The interesting thing about your statement is that it’s actually exactly how the Rams and Chiefs approached things with their young QBs.

 

Now obviously the QB is going to have to be good regardless, but the fact that Mahomes has had an elite WR, RB, TE, and another very good WR is definitely a component of why he’s been so dominant. It’s even more evident with regard to Goff; McVay got that job and immediately brought in Cooks, Woods, Watkins, Kupp, Everett, Reynolds, & Higbee.

 

I would love to see Buffalo make a similar effort with Allen. Make his targets so good that he has literally no excuse for not getting the job done.

[transplantbillsfan]

15 hours ago, Billl said:

What is with the “Josh was the most raw QB in decades” narrative?  Unless “raw” just means that he was ineffective in college, it’s BS.  You know who was raw?  Lamar Jackson was raw.  He just completed an MVP season, and people are still calling him a RB.  Ryan Tannehill was raw.  He was a WR until his Junior year of college.  Pat Mahomes was raw coming out of the Air Raid at Texas Tech. Allen was simply a QB who didn’t put up numbers despite playing in the same system as Carson Wentz.

 

Total and utter crap bro.

 

Go look into the storylines of these guys all the way back to High School.

 

I'll start you on the path: multi sport athlete at a small town rural High School who didn't attend those QB camps like the Manning passing academy as many of these top prospects did and a wildly late bloomer, which seriously and negatively impacted his recruitment to colleges causing him to...

 

well...

 

I challenge you to objectively go back and research his story and come back to me other QBs like Lamar Jackson who was a 4 star recruit as a QB coming out of a High School that played nationally ranked teams and played in one of the 3 best conferences in the NCAA under one of the best coaches or Ryan Tannehill who was a 3 star recruit at QB coming out of High school and then played QB for a couple years (after playing WR) at one of the college football powerhouses.

 

I know I'm a homer, but it's pretty rare to find a story like Allen's.

 

Look it up.

 

He is your Quarterback, afterall...

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, Billl said:

I was looking for his pre draft scouting reports due to all the “he’s so raw” comments around here.  I thought the analysis was interesting because every word of it is true today.  He’s literally been the starter for two years and has a career completion percentage of 56%.

 

Two year starter:  True

 

Obviously 

 

14 hours ago, Billl said:

56% completion:  True

 

Soooo.... since recency matters... is he getting better or worse with that number?

 

14 hours ago, Billl said:

Scattershot passer:  True

 

Not a fact. Completely subjective statement.

 

Define this, please.

 

14 hours ago, Billl said:

Great velocity but needs a better change up:  True

 

Sure

 

14 hours ago, Billl said:

Tends to miss (sometimes badly) on check downs and screens:  True

 

What does this even mean? I watched Carson Wentz and Tom Brady miss badly on wide open check downs and screens this year.

 

Again, very subjective unless you compare him across the board.

 

Plus, is he doing it more or less lately?

 

14 hours ago, Billl said:

Struggles with pressure, lacks proper timing, won’t take the easy yards:  True, true, true

 

1) Most young QBs do

2) Most young QBs do

3) Agreed, but again, is this something he's gotten better or worse at recently?

 

 

 

I swear to God if Allen has a 65% completion percentage next year some vapid poster trying to manipulate a narrative is going to come here and argue something like "well, he has a career completion percentage of less than 60%!" just for the sake of trolling.

[CorkScrewHill]

Article about putting JA performance in context

 

https://buffalowdown.com/2020/01/25/buffalo-bills-providing-context-josh-allens-second-season/

 

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

Article about putting JA performance in context

 

https://buffalowdown.com/2020/01/25/buffalo-bills-providing-context-josh-allens-second-season/

 

Good article.  I would agree with the author that Allen’s improvement needs to be on the mental and not physical side.  Reading defenses is the key for him as far as continued development.

 

As for his rookie season, I believe Beane has publicly stated they made a mistake not bringing in a vet like Anderson after they traded McCarron.  Peterman beat out McCarron; one of the great mysteries of the Beane/ McD regime is how Peterman could look so good in preseason and then so terrible in real games and why they kept faith in him for so long.. 

[K-9]

23 hours ago, Billl said:

What is with the “Josh was the most raw QB in decades” narrative?  Unless “raw” just means that he was ineffective in college, it’s BS.  You know who was raw?  Lamar Jackson was raw.  He just completed an MVP season, and people are still calling him a RB.  Ryan Tannehill was raw.  He was a WR until his Junior year of college.  Pat Mahomes was raw coming out of the Air Raid at Texas Tech. Allen was simply a QB who didn’t put up numbers despite playing in the same system as Carson Wentz.

You need to better acquaint yourself with the development backgrounds of Allen vs. the other QBs you listed. In terms of the development paths taken, Allen is about as raw as it gets. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 hours ago, Billl said:

My guess would be Mahomes.  If so, it’s safe to assume that he overcame them all pretty much immediately (other than his tendency to sail the deep ball on occasion).

 

For values of "immediately" equal to "after a year"

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

Good article.  I would agree with the author that Allen’s improvement needs to be on the mental and not physical side.  Reading defenses is the key for him as far as continued development.

 

I didn't read that article as saying that.  Maybe I read it with a reflection of my own bias perhaps which is "needs to improve both"?  There's some throwing mechanics work to do.

 

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

As for his rookie season, I believe Beane has publicly stated they made a mistake not bringing in a vet like Anderson after they traded McCarron.  Peterman beat out McCarron; one of the great mysteries of the Beane/ McD regime is how Peterman could look so good in preseason and then so terrible in real games and why they kept faith in him for so long.. 

 

That is indeed, one of the great mysteries of life.  All I can figure is that Peterman must have Some Stuff on the whiteboard and the film room - he's still in the league!  Gruden IR'd him out in Oakland!  But when it ratchets up a notch for a game, he can't answer.

 

Even if Peterman had worked out, you still have a raw, inexperienced 2nd yr QB trying to show a raw rookie how to prepare in the NFL, which is "blind leading blind", no bueno.

 

That whole Peterman thing and the OL/WR situation in 2018 cast the shadow of a huge "???" over some aspects of Beane and McDermott for me.  I felt better after 2019, but it's not going to go away until I see us have some more draft and FA choices pan out.

[thebandit27]

52 minutes ago, K-9 said:

You need to better acquaint yourself with the development backgrounds of Allen vs. the other QBs you listed. In terms of the development paths taken, Allen is about as raw as it gets. 

Unbelievable, isn’t it? The same poster that tells other people that they don’t know what “raw” means then uses the term to describe a player offered scholarships by 15 schools (including Clemson and Auburn), became a 3-year college starter, played under a former NFL head coach in Bobby Petrino, and transitioned to an NFL offense that Greg Roman shaped to mirror everything that Jackson did in college.

 

Safe to say that I will be putting less stock into certain content following that gem.

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

That is indeed, one of the great mysteries of life.  All I can figure is that Peterman must have Some Stuff on the whiteboard and the film room - he's still in the league!  Gruden IR'd him out in Oakland!  But when it ratchets up a notch for a game, he can't answer.

 

Even if Peterman had worked out, you still have a raw, inexperienced 2nd yr QB trying to show a raw rookie how to prepare in the NFL, which is "blind leading blind", no bueno.

 

That whole Peterman thing and the OL/WR situation in 2018 cast the shadow of a huge "???" over some aspects of Beane and McDermott for me.  I felt better after 2019, but it's not going to go away until I see us have some more draft and FA choices pan out.

 

It was an absolute debacle.  The worst I think I've ever seen the most important position in sports managed.

 

Some GMs would have "stayed the course," just to keep from having to admit wrongdoing and having egg on his face.

 

I gave credit to Beane coming out and admitting he screwed the pooch (and I took a lot of heat for giving him credit by our resident NFL genius).  He took his lumps and he did a much better job moving forward.

 

Overall, I like Beane a lot.  But, like you, I'm still stung by that QB mess and still want him to show me the baby this offseason.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/25/2020 at 10:41 AM, Real McNasty said:

Right? I didn't know about the Wentz connection and why he didn't enter the draft a year earlier. 

 

Josh talked about it some in a pre-draft interview with Mayock (at 1:25 or so, I can't get it to link at the correct time):

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

On 1/25/2020 at 9:55 AM, Billl said:

What is with the “Josh was the most raw QB in decades” narrative?  Unless “raw” just means that he was ineffective in college, it’s BS.  You know who was raw?  Lamar Jackson was raw.  He just completed an MVP season, and people are still calling him a RB.  Ryan Tannehill was raw.  He was a WR until his Junior year of college.  Pat Mahomes was raw coming out of the Air Raid at Texas Tech. Allen was simply a QB who didn’t put up numbers despite playing in the same system as Carson Wentz.

 

Lamar Jackson was not considered raw he just wasn't able to make certain types of throws.  There's a BIG difference. 

 

Jackson ran a spread offense where he was the guy.  I'm sure that Jackson was attending multiple elite QB camps throughout high school.  He was exposed at a young age to top notch QB coaching.

 

The nature of the offense that Mahomes ran meant he was anything but raw coming out of college.

 

Allen was raw because he didn't attend those elite QB camps and he didn't benefit from top notch QB coaching until he was preparing to be drafted.  I bet that between the age of 12 - 22 Allen threw a lot fewer passes, in any capacity (games, drills, practice, 7 on 7's, camps) then Jackson or Mahomes did.  Allen is a true rarity among young QB's today - he's still learning how to play the position. 

 

Collin Cowherd on his show made a great point with Trent Dilfer about the current crop of young QB's receiving all sorts of elite training and throwing the ball tens of thousands of times by the time they get out of college.  But Allen is an exception to this.  Under the circumstances hes actually making great progress.

 

 

[Scott7975]

On 1/23/2020 at 10:18 AM, jrober38 said:

 

That's how long the plays were.

 

None of those passes went 40 yards or more in the air.

 

I did math. I literally put the numbers into a calculator and that's what came out. 

 

Well I just looked up the very first play.  Allen threw the ball from the Bills 38 yardline.  Pass was caught at the Pats 19/20 yardline.  Pits game Josh threw from the Bills 22.  It was caught at the Steelers 34.  So yeah, he did have at least 2 balls there that traveled at least 40 yards in the air.  What difference does it even make?  Are you trying to say he can't do it?

 

[Scott7975]

On 1/23/2020 at 11:10 AM, BigBillsFan said:

BTW the difference between jrober's stats and everyone else is because jrober is counting actual yards from the LOS, not from where threw it to a reception. In air yards isn't yards given to a QB, or rephrase it a QB who went back 40 yards thew it 10 yards past the LOS isn't a 50 yard pass.

 

Then perhaps he shouldn't say that "Josh has not thrown one pass that traveled 40 yards in the air."
 

[Scott7975]

On 1/23/2020 at 11:17 AM, jrober38 said:

 

You're living in a fantasy land.

 

You're literally just saying things you want to be true.

 

Straight from NextGen's Glossary:

 

Average Completed Air Yards (CAY) and Average Intended Air Yards (IAY)

Air Yards is the vertical yards on a pass attempt at the moment the ball is caught in relation to the line of scrimmage. CAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on completions, and IAY shows the average Air Yards a passer throws on all attempts. This metric shows how far the ball is being thrown ‘downfield’. Air Yards is recorded as a negative value when the pass is behind the Line of Scrimmage. Additionally Air Yards is calculated into the back of the end zone to better evaluate the true depth of the pass.

Give it up. Please stop making up blatant lies. 

 

 

 

 

and this is the other....

 

Longest Completed Air Distance (LCAD)

Air Distance is the amount of yards the ball has traveled on a pass, from the point of release to the point of reception (as the crow flies). Unlike Air Yards, Air Distance measures the actual distance the passer throws the ball.