What a Shaq Lawson Extension May Look Like

[JGMcD2]

I don't think many people were surprised this offseason when Brandon Beane elected to decline Shaq Lawson's the 5th year rookie option. His name has been popped up in trade rumors consistently since McDermott and Beane have arrived in Buffalo. McBeane haven't been too kind to players left over by the previous regime, so those trade rumors made quite a bit of sense. Drafted by the Rex Ryan regime 19th overall in 2016 out of Clemson, Lawson has failed to live up to expectations that are placed on first round draft picks. Shoulder surgery prior to his rookie season limited him to only 10 games, and he has yet to play a full 16 game slate in his 3 year NFL career. 

 

Lawson finished the 2018 season strong and while we're only 1 game in to the 2019 season, he seems to have potentially turned a corner in his young career. I have a feeling that Beane and McDermott are not averse to bringing Shaq back, I just don't think they felt he was worth the $9.5 million the he would have cost the team in 2020 had they picked up his option. A year and a half ago that might not have been true, but he seems to have bought into "The Process". I can only go off of what I've seen on social media but Shaq seems committed to improving, he was featured pretty heavily in Embedded (which isn't much, but Shady was almost non-existent and he was shown the door shortly after) and in that same Embedded series Brandon Beane makes a point about the players that they sign and re-sign for the sake of the locker room. I'm paraphrasing but he says something along the lines of "We need to be careful who we pay, everyone in the locker room is watching who we pay, that's important." This regime has stated that they want to re-sign their own and they have proven it with Matt Barkley, Jordan Phillips, Lorenzo Alexander, Steven Hauschka and Jerry Hughes. 

 

Hughes is a holdover from the Rex Ryan regime, somebody that was also mentioned early and often in trade rumors when McBeane came to town. While he has been an impactful player since his arrival in Orchard Park, his buy in to "The Process" was no guarantee. The point of me highlighting Jerry Hughes is to show that McBeane HAVE re-signed a player that wasn't their own acquisition, so they may be willing to do it again, if they are convinced Shaq Lawson truly has turned a corner. 

 

Whitney Mercilus

Outside Linebacker

Houston Texans

 

Mercilus managed to put up consistent sack numbers early in his career. Following a breakout 2015 season (the Texans declined his 5th year player option worth $7.75 million prior to 2015), where he totaled 12 sacks and 32 tackles the Texans locked him up with a four year extension. Whitney Mercilus signed a 4 year, $26,000,000 contract with the Houston Texans, including a $5,250,000 signing bonus, $10,681,012 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $6,500,000. In 2019, Mercilus will earn a base salary of $5,750,000 and a roster bonus of $500,000, while carrying a cap hit of $7,300,000 and a dead cap value of $1,050,000.

 

Henry Anderson 

Defensive End

New York Jets

 

Anderson was a third round pick of the Indianapolis Colts in 2015. He played 9, 12, and 9 games in his first three seasons in the league. Primarily as a run stuffing end. He broke out in his fourth year after a trade to the Jets where he recorded 7 sacks and 35 tackles over the course of 16 games. Henry Anderson signed a 3 year, $25,200,000 contract with the New York Jets, including a $4,000,000 signing bonus, $17,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $8,400,000. In 2019, Anderson will earn a base salary of $2,000,000, a signing bonus of $4,000,000, a roster bonus of $4,000,000 and a incentive bonus of $500,000, while carrying a cap hit of $7,833,333 and a dead cap value of $17,000,000.

 

I think these are some pretty realistic comparisons for Shaq here, with the caveat that he actually has to continue to produce in 2019. Mercilus signed his extension in 2016 so the numbers are likely suppressed considering the rising salary cap and larger contracts due to the increasing cap. The Anderson deal represents a more recent instance of an extension for a player coming off of his rookie contract with similar counting stats to Shaq over his first three seasons. 

 

It's likely that if Shaq were to continue to produce and then sign an extension with the Bills it would fall somewhere between Mercilus and Anderson in terms of AAV. My projection would be something like a 4 year, $32,000,000 contract with about $14,000,000 guaranteed. This would be an average annual salary of $8,000,000. 

 

Edited September 10, 2019 by JGMcD2

[RyanC883]

interesting read.  I hope and think Shaq will continue this trajectory.  He's always been solid against the run and is a much improved pass rusher.  He keeps this up, it would be money well spent.  Then draft someone to play opposite him/provide depth while Hughes is still playing at a high level.  One "vet" and one "rookie contract" pass rusher is a good format, IMO.  

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

interesting read.  I hope and think Shaq will continue this trajectory.  He's always been solid against the run and is a much improved pass rusher.  He keeps this up, it would be money well spent.  Then draft someone to play opposite him/provide depth while Hughes is still playing at a high level.  One "vet" and one "rookie contract" pass rusher is a good format, IMO.  

I don’t think we’ll be seeing too much Shaq playing opposite Jerry unless they move Jerry over to the left side.  He IS Jerry’s backup and possibly replacement 

[SCBills]

What I like from Shaq, is while he isn’t an elite pass rusher, he’s a strong dude and typically pushes his guy back towards the QB, collapsing the pocket. 

 

Great against the run.  If he keeps developing his pass rush ability, I think he’s an obvious guy to re-sign. 

[Charles Romes]

I’m expecting to Beane to bring in three free agents better than Shaq with reasonable contracts, have them compete for the position, then trade two of them for draft pics before the 53 man roster cut down day. 

[JaCrispy]

While I appreciate the production, Shaq’s best role on the team is as a backup imo- similar to NBA’s 6th man...I prefer to keep searching for a high end pass rusher to start.

Edited September 10, 2019 by JaCrispy

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I have no problem keeping Lawson as a rotation guy for the right price. He is very good against the run and is a good tackler but I can't see him averaging more than 5 to 7 sacks a year. 

[Virgil]

Unless he breaks 10 sacks, let him walk.  He’ll want more than he’s worth. 

 

I’m saying this as a person who thought he was an MVP on Sunday.  It’s one game after 3 years of meh

[Punching Bag]

9 hours ago, NewEra said:

I don’t think we’ll be seeing too much Shaq playing opposite Jerry unless they move Jerry over to the left side.  He IS Jerry’s backup and possibly replacement 

 

Johnson has been Jerry's backup.  Shaq is backing up Murphy this year.  And Jerry just got contract extension.

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Johnson has been Jerry's backup.  Shaq is backing up Murphy this year.  And Jerry just got contract extension.

Strange considering I saw Shaq playing RDE the majority of his snaps

[Punching Bag]

https://nflcdns.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamecenter/57906/NYJ_Gamebook.pdf

T Murphy DE 57 79%

J Hughes DE 50 69%

S Lawson DE 22 31%

D Johnson DE 13 18%

[NoSaint]

9 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

I don't think many people were surprised this offseason when Brandon Beane elected to decline Shaq Lawson's the 5th year rookie option. His name has been popped up in trade rumors consistently since McDermott and Beane have arrived in Buffalo. McBeane haven't been too kind to players left over by the previous regime, so those trade rumors made quite a bit of sense. Drafted by the Rex Ryan regime 19th overall in 2016 out of Clemson, Lawson has failed to live up to expectations that are placed on first round draft picks. Shoulder surgery prior to his rookie season limited him to only 10 games, and he has yet to play a full 16 game slate in his 3 year NFL career. 

 

Lawson finished the 2018 season strong and while we're only 1 game in to the 2019 season, he seems to have potentially turned a corner in his young career. I have a feeling that Beane and McDermott are not averse to bringing Shaq back, I just don't think they felt he was worth the $9.5 million the he would have cost the team in 2020 had they picked up his option. A year and a half ago that might not have been true, but he seems to have bought into "The Process". I can only go off of what I've seen on social media but Shaq seems committed to improving, he was featured pretty heavily in Embedded (which isn't much, but Shady was almost non-existent and he was shown the door shortly after) and in that same Embedded series Brandon Beane makes a point about the players that they sign and re-sign for the sake of the locker room. I'm paraphrasing but he says something along the lines of "We need to be careful who we pay, everyone in the locker room is watching who we pay, that's important." This regime has stated that they want to re-sign their own and they have proven it with Matt Barkley, Jordan Phillips, Lorenzo Alexander, Steven Hauschka and Jerry Hughes. 

 

Hughes is a holdover from the Rex Ryan regime, somebody that was also mentioned early and often in trade rumors when McBeane came to town. While he has been an impactful player since his arrival in Orchard Park, his buy in to "The Process" was no guarantee. The point of me highlighting Jerry Hughes is to show that McBeane HAVE re-signed a player that wasn't their own acquisition, so they may be willing to do it again, if they are convinced Shaq Lawson truly has turned a corner. 

 

Whitney Mercilus

Outside Linebacker

Houston Texans

 

Mercilus managed to put up consistent sack numbers early in his career. Following a breakout 2015 season (the Texans declined his 5th year player option worth $7.75 million prior to 2015), where he totaled 12 sacks and 32 tackles the Texans locked him up with a four year extension. Whitney Mercilus signed a 4 year, $26,000,000 contract with the Houston Texans, including a $5,250,000 signing bonus, $10,681,012 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $6,500,000. In 2019, Mercilus will earn a base salary of $5,750,000 and a roster bonus of $500,000, while carrying a cap hit of $7,300,000 and a dead cap value of $1,050,000.

 

Henry Anderson 

Defensive End

New York Jets

 

Anderson was a third round pick of the Indianapolis Colts in 2015. He played 9, 12, and 9 games in his first three seasons in the league. Primarily as a run stuffing end. He broke out in his fourth year after a trade to the Jets where he recorded 7 sacks and 35 tackles over the course of 16 games. Henry Anderson signed a 3 year, $25,200,000 contract with the New York Jets, including a $4,000,000 signing bonus, $17,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $8,400,000. In 2019, Anderson will earn a base salary of $2,000,000, a signing bonus of $4,000,000, a roster bonus of $4,000,000 and a incentive bonus of $500,000, while carrying a cap hit of $7,833,333 and a dead cap value of $17,000,000.

 

I think these are some pretty realistic comparisons for Shaq here, with the caveat that he actually has to continue to produce in 2019. Mercilus signed his extension in 2016 so the numbers are likely suppressed considering the rising salary cap and larger contracts due to the increasing cap. The Anderson deal represents a more recent instance of an extension for a player coming off of his rookie contract with similar counting stats to Shaq over his first three seasons. 

 

It's likely that if Shaq were to continue to produce and then sign an extension with the Bills it would fall somewhere between Mercilus and Anderson in terms of AAV. My projection would be something like a 4 year, $32,000,000 contract with about $14,000,000 guaranteed. This would be an average annual salary of $7,500,000. 

 

 

WM in 2016 would need a multiplier for a guy getting inked in 2020. The cap will have gone up considerably. 

 

Also 4 year 32m would be 8m per year. 

 

Itll be be interesting to see how the season plays out