Allen vs. Darnold: Analysts Evaluate the Present and Predict the Future

[Patriot Killa]

Just now, Binghamton Beast said:

That long pass Darnold threw on the last drive....that was amazing.

He’s shown excellent ball placement at times. I think he’s finally beginning to get comfortable enough with the speed of the game to let his playing style and instincts take over. It seems like it’s almost an unconscious effort when he puts the ball in a spot like that. 

 

He was able to do it against the Broncos. He looked off the safety to the right, froze him with the hesitation, quickly pivoted his body to the left and put it beautiful over Anderson’s shoulder on the money for a TD.

 

He needs to clean up things, obviously, as he’s thrown 12 TD’s to 15 INT’s but he’s flashed enough for me to kinda see what the future can have in store.

[Apocalypse Nuts]

1 hour ago, AllenWillBust said:

 

That's not very hard to accomplish.

 

In terms of Allen vs. Darnold, in the long run a 50% completion rate isn't going to get you anywhere in the league. Allen can run around all he wants and many Bills fans will call him a playmaker, but he needs to make plays with his arm not legs. He's had the opportunity to do so in the last two weeks and has failed both times with errant throws. He will eventually wash out, and will take the FO with him.

You all need to get over your love/ reliance on stats so much.  You keep regurgitating the same old crap the draft "experts" jammed down our throats for months.  Can you please have an original thought?  Some kind of original analysis?  He passes the eye test like no other I've seen in Buffalo since Kelly.  You will eat crow.  Of that I have no doubt.

[AllenWillBust]

1 minute ago, Generic Screen Name 2 said:

He passes the eye test like no other I've seen in Buffalo since Kelly.

 

But what is most important, Kelly was a 60%+ completion QB in a time when it was harder to complete passes.  Allen is a 50% passer in a day and age when the league does its best to tie CB's hands behind their backs.

 

You are being absolutely ridiculous comparing Allen to Kelly.  Eye tests don't mean ***** and you know it.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

 

[Patriot Killa]

6 minutes ago, Generic Screen Name 2 said:

F'ing trolls.  You all need to get over your love/ reliance on stats so much.  You keep regurgitating the same old crap the draft "experts" jammed down our throats for months.  Can you please have an original thought?  Some kind of original analysis?  He passes the eye test like no other I've seen in Buffalo since Kelly.  You will eat crow.  Of that I have no doubt.

It is extremely hard to predict a QB’s career trajectory in the NFL. It is the single hardest learning curve for any sports position and that is why they make the money they do, get drafted when they do and why there are so few elites. 

 

Peyton Manning went 3-13 with 28 interceptions in his rookie year. Elway? Aikman?

 

then you have guys like RG3 who won rookie of the year.

 

It is literally impossible to judge a QB by his rookie season — especially going off of stats. Do stats matter? In some capacity, yes, they are still numerical evidence of how a QB plays BUT... some numbers aren’t and can’t be simply put into context. What if the WR half assed a route and the QB threw it to where he was suppose to be but it gets intercepted? Passes that were intially the correct read but get knocked into the air and picked off? 

 

There isnt much context to be had in stats.

 

the best you can do is take things, both positive and negative, into consideration and try to project if what you are seeing can be fixed with experience or offseason self evaluation.

 

I think both QB’s will be fine in the long run but will need help from their organizations to succeed as any player would.

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by Patriot Killa

[AllenWillBust]

6 minutes ago, Generic Screen Name 2 said:

You Allen haters will just never admit you're wrong.

 

What is there to admit exactly?  50% completion in college was his main flaw.  Guess where he's at in the NFL?  But go ahead and use your eye test BS to make yourself feel better about your favorite NFL team.

 

 

Edited December 10, 2018 by AllenWillBust

[Apocalypse Nuts]

Just now, AllenWillBust said:

 

What is there to admit exactly?  50% completion in college was his main flaw.  Guess where he's at in the NFL?  But go ahead and use your eye test BS to make yourself feel better about your favorite NFL team.

 

 

Whatever bro

[AllenWillBust]

Just now, Generic Screen Name 2 said:

Whatever bro

Thanks?  lmao

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, AllenWillBust said:

 

What is there to admit exactly?  50% completion in college was his main flaw.  Guess where he's at in the NFL?  But go ahead and use your eye test BS to make yourself feel better about your favorite NFL team.

 

I didn't like him coming out but that was based on watching the film not the stats column. I have been mildly impressed to this point, but I do think it is true to say long term he will have to be a 60%+ passer to be a franchise QB. Let's see whether it improves with better talent around him.

[Patriot Killa]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I didn't like him coming out but that was based on watching the film not the stats column. I have been mildly impressed to this point, but I do think it is true to say long term he will have to be a 60%+ passer to be a franchise QB. Let's see whether it improves with better talent around him.

I feel like when I look at a QB with success with such a strong arm, who’s mobile, who doesn’t have the best accuracy..I think of Cam Newton. 

 

Cam Newton has been to a super bowl before. Cam has had success. I think Allen has a very similar playing style/traits and that’s how it could work out for him. 58-59% would be bar minimum. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

I feel like when I look at a QB with success with such a strong arm, who’s mobile, who doesn’t have the best accuracy..I think of Cam Newton. 

 

Cam Newton has been to a super bowl before. Cam has had success. I think Allen has a very similar playing style/traits and that’s how it could work out for him. 58-59% would be bar minimum. 

 

Fair. Cam is a tick below 60%. He has good years and bad year but in his good years his team makes the playoffs. Given what we have had for most of the past two decades if you offered me a first 8 years like Cam's..... 4 playoff seasons, 4 non playoff seasons and 1 Superbowl appearance I'd definitely take that.

[Patriot Killa]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Fair. Cam is a tick below 60%. He has good years and bad year but in his good years his team makes the playoffs. Given what we have had for most of the past two decades if you offered me a first 8 years like Cam's..... 4 playoff seasons, 4 non playoff seasons and 1 Superbowl appearance I'd definitely take that.

Absolutely. Same here. Cam Newton is not a terrible QB. He’s definitely a guy with a lot of natural talent and a guy you can win games with.

 

Bills got someone with that mold at #7 when Cam went #1 in 2011.

 

Thats not a bad deal right there, Bill’s fans.

[Gugny]

On 12/6/2018 at 2:54 PM, John from Riverside said:

Josh Allen easily has the most upside of these QBs.......he is the most raw right now and is the 2nd best QB of this class.

 

He also plays with trash all around him and hardly any protection

 

He is easily the most likely to improve because of these things....he has Brian Deboll who brought his fresh college concepts with him but doesnt have the horses to run them this year......and Josh STILL looks like the 2nd best rookie QB this year.

 

Daboll isn't doing Allen, or the Bills, any favors.  If Allen fails, it will be due to horrible coaching.

[Flutie Flakes]

15 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Daboll isn't doing Allen, or the Bills, any favors.  If Allen fails, it will be due to horrible coaching.

 

OC's fault?  Zay Jones #1 receiver and the remaining players are rookies/practice squad talent, OL that is sub-par, TE's that are less than sub-par led by Clay, rushing production led by our QB....yeah that's all Daboll's fault.  

 

I'd blame Daboll if the OC was loaded with talent and was still ineffective because of poor play calling, but given our present composition on the offensive side of the ball, I would say it's premature to call out Daboll at this point. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, AllenWillBust said:

But what is most important, Kelly was a 60%+ completion QB in a time when it was harder to complete passes.  Allen is a 50% passer in a day and age when the league does its best to tie CB's hands behind their backs.

 

You are being absolutely ridiculous comparing Allen to Kelly.  Eye tests don't mean ***** and you know it.

 

In a sense, the Bills drafting Allen was the ultimate challenge to the latter statement.  Modern analytics said "he sucks, don't do it".  The "eye test" said "he's a rare physical talent who seems to have his head on very straight and want to learn, take a shot"

 

But what spurred me to reply was the revisionist history.  Kelly was an <60% passer most of his career - and this was after 3 years in the USFL further developing.

Kelly had 4 career years over 60% which pulled his overall 10 year average up just over 60%, and the first was not until he'd been in the NFL 5 years.

 

He also had a damn good OL in front of him and some amazing receivers.

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

17 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

In a sense, the Bills drafting Allen was the ultimate challenge to the latter statement.  Modern analytics said "he sucks, don't do it".  The "eye test" said "he's a rare physical talent who seems to have his head on very straight and want to learn, take a shot"

 

But what spurred me to reply was the revisionist history.  Kelly was an <60% passer most of his career - and this was after 3 years in the USFL further developing.

Kelly had 4 career years over 60% which pulled his overall 10 year average up just over 60%, and the first was not until he'd been in the NFL 5 years.

 

He also had a damn good OL in front of him and some amazing receivers.

 

 

One need only look at the screen name to completely discount the opinion. It's clear that that individual, be he an actual poster or a revenant of some banned person or a troll, has an agenda he's zealous to pursue. In fact, anyone who's reached a conclusion on Allen at this point in EITHER direction is probably pursuing an agenda. As for me, I'm heartened by his competitive nature, and his will to do whatever it takes to win. I am longing to see what he can do with an actual supporting cast that can block and catch passes.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Bob in STL]

12 hours ago, PolishPrince said:

"looked poised and made fewer bad plays" and "Darnold had no pressure, good field position all game."

You dont think maybe one of these above led to the other? From pretty much first snap Allen got his ass kicked by the Jets D due to our complete lack of a line. Then factor in about 6 terrible drops right in the hands... meanwhile darnold's WR are making high extended contested grabs on our DB's. If Allen gets ANY help from this team, its a blow out.

I still dont get all these people ranking Darnold ahead of Allen after one game, where the rest of the Bills decided to not show up. The same people gripe about Allen's accuracy, meanwhile Darnold LEADS THE LEAGUE IN INTERCEPTIONS - and he has missed 4 games lol

Wah, wah, wah ... 

 

Of course the pressure on Allen had something to do with it.  So did his very bad decisions on two picks. Yes our WR had some drops, and Allen misfired too.   Yes, Darnold had great field position most of the day.  

 

I’m not ranking them.  Allen has less to work with I agree.  He is also less accomplished throwing the ball.  Watch the game. 

 

Im talking about a head to head match up against a division rival.  Round 1 to Darnold. Two TD drives in the 4 th quarter on the road to win.  Two passes to beat Tre White on top of that.  The tying drive was a long  drive with a great bomb perfectly thrown.  Our top tier defense folded.   

 

Allen played well. But no TD passes. 

Edited December 10, 2018 by Bob in STL

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, Flutie Flakes said:

 

OC's fault?  Zay Jones #1 receiver and the remaining players are rookies/practice squad talent, OL that is sub-par, TE's that are less than sub-par led by Clay, rushing production led by our QB....yeah that's all Daboll's fault.  

 

I'd blame Daboll if the OC was loaded with talent and was still ineffective because of poor play calling, but given our present composition on the offensive side of the ball, I would say it's premature to call out Daboll at this point. 

 

I think his play calling has been questionable at best, horrible at worst, throughout the season - so I don't think it's premature.

[PolishPrince]

1 hour ago, Bob in STL said:

Wah, wah, wah ... 

 

Of course the pressure on Allen had something to do with it.  So did his very bad decisions on two picks. Yes our WR had some drops, and Allen misfired too.   Yes, Darnold had great field position most of the day.  

 

I’m not ranking them.  Allen has less to work with I agree.  He is also less accomplished throwing the ball.  Watch the game. 

 

Im talking about a head to head match up against a division rival.  Round 1 to Darnold. Two TD drives in the 4 th quarter on the road to win.  Two passes to beat Tre White on top of that.  The tying drive was a long  drive with a great bomb perfectly thrown.  Our top tier defense folded.   

 

Allen played well. But no TD 

Well Allen did have a TD, a rushing TD after dodging their defense in our backfield per usual.... I just also disagree with this "less accomplished throwing the ball." Darnold also had a really stupid/bad pick, and STILL leads the league in INT's even after his four week hiatus. Allen also threw for more yards. The only difference is completion percentage. If you factor in the 5-6 or whatever routine drops our WR's made (Darnolds crew didnt drop any) than Allen's completion percent is only 1% less than Darnold, but add in about another 100 yards almost doubling Sam's. So the real difference is Sam had a throwing TD, and 1 less INT... then again Sam's TD came on a 12 second play where he still was barely threatened and not hit. I bet Allen's thinking that kind of time must be nice