How often do "project" quarterbacks work out?

[Klaista2k]

8 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Has anyone satisfactorily answered your questions?

Yeah.

Favre is a good answer.

[The Process]

Cardale worked out....in the weight room.

[Chris66]

15 hours ago, Logic said:

It's just that I never see you contribute anything worthwhile in terms of football discussion. Ever.

You essentially ONLY ever come here to spew negativity about the Bills.

You've spoken poorly of Allen (multiple times), the Pegulas, the coaching staff.

If your only role is to speak negatively about the Bills, then it IS trolling. What else should I call it? 

Not true. I think MvD is doing ok as a hc as far as getting the guys to do the little things needed. The defense is good and will only get better, but this topic isnt about that.

 

I didnt like Allen coming out of college. He was way too raw. Maybe at 2nd round take a chance, but to give up the assets they did after passing on Mahomes deserves criticism. Especially given that you have a first time qb coach and an oc that has never had a decent ranked offense.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

9 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

You kidding me? 

 

Id take Russell Wilson and dump Allen right now. 

 

He's good, certainly top 15 type good, but I don't think he's worth the money he's making.  And they've had to let too many others on the roster go to afford him.  And seems like every year, the team has done worse as they keep needing to dump talent around him because of cap issues, is that 100% due to his salary alone, no, but he's a part of it.  You also read about the drama out there around him too, maybe that's really not on him but on Carroll?

 

Wilson's not unique in this, there's probably 10 QB's similar who are paid much more than their play dictates.  There was an article people here had a thread on a couple weeks back about some writer stated you should draft a rookie QB and once his contract is up, let him go and grab a new one as usually not worth the money they want.  I wouldn't maybe go as far as that article went, but don't totally  disagree with that argument either. 

[SoTier]

On 10/9/2018 at 7:36 PM, Klaista2k said:

How often do these young quarterbacks that  are considered "projects" actually pan out?

 

Do they usually bust or is there a lot of examples of guys that have actually worked out?

 

 

 

 

The problem is deciding the definition of "project QB" because there's no standard definition of the label or how it's applied. 

 

The reality is that about 50% of first round QBs -- who are mostly the best prospects with only a few being "projects" -- either bust or become low level starters and/or career backups.  Only the QBs who are picked #1 are consistently successful -- about 4 out of 5 of them become franchise QBs.   Off-hand, I can't think of any first round QB who was labeled "a project" who has been successful in the last twenty years. 

 

Among QBs taken after the first round -- who would probably all be considered "projects" -- their chances of finding success are generally between slim and none.  Most successful later round QBs tend to have reasons for why they weren't taken in the first round: Drew Brees and Russell Wilson were "too short"; Kirk Cousins was "too slight";  andTom Brady was a victim of athletic department politics that resulted in him being only a part-time starter at Michigan.   Andy Dalton seems to be one of the few non-first round QBs to consistently play at a high level from the beginning of his career, but he's had success primarily when he has the right pieces around him.

 

Successful real "project QBs" -- UDFAs -- are rarities, and there have only been two who have been bonafide successes in the last 20 years: Kurt Warner and Tony Romo.  Case Keenum may be another.

[DuckyBoys]

38 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

The problem is deciding the definition of "project QB" because there's no standard definition of the label or how it's applied. 

 

The reality is that about 50% of first round QBs -- who are mostly the best prospects with only a few being "projects" -- either bust or become low level starters and/or career backups.  Only the QBs who are picked #1 are consistently successful -- about 4 out of 5 of them become franchise QBs.   Off-hand, I can't think of any first round QB who was labeled "a project" who has been successful in the last twenty years. 

 

Among QBs taken after the first round -- who would probably all be considered "projects" -- their chances of finding success are generally between slim and none.  Most successful later round QBs tend to have reasons for why they weren't taken in the first round: Drew Brees and Russell Wilson were "too short"; Kirk Cousins was "too slight";  andTom Brady was a victim of athletic department politics that resulted in him being only a part-time starter at Michigan.   Andy Dalton seems to be one of the few non-first round QBs to consistently play at a high level from the beginning of his career, but he's had success primarily when he has the right pieces around him.

 

Successful real "project QBs" -- UDFAs -- are rarities, and there have only been two who have been bonafide successes in the last 20 years: Kurt Warner and Tony Romo.  Case Keenum may be another. 

Successful real "project QBs" -- UDFAs -- are rarities, and there have only been two who have been bonafide successes in the last 20 years: Kurt Warner and Tony Romo.  Case Keenum may be another. 

 

That is also a reflection of how short a leash those guys get.  Teams aren't going to stick with a guy like that for even a bit if he struggles Romo and Warner took off right away.  On the flip side teams typically will give a 1st rounder a very long leash.  They have much more invested and I assume there is some ego involved not wanting to accept they may have drafted the wrong guy. 

 

The argument about drafting Allen really boils down to should they have taken Rosen instead. Anything else is ridiculous because we dont know if they could have moved up enough to get Darnold or Mayfield.   I wanted Allen or Mayfield.  I thought Allen was more risky but could be better in the long run.  I thought Mayfield's floor was at least mediocre starter but could he overcome the physical size to be truly great.  Don't like Rosen just don't think he can hold up physically to the NFL.  Darnold I cant explain it but just didnt want a USC qb  Thought too many turnovers given he played with the cast he had.

 

 

Russell Wilson is worth every penny.  That line sucks and has sucked but he more often than not makes it work and keeps himself safe by ducking down or getting out of bounds.  You can argue the money spent on the cast around him might have made the team better even with a lesser qb but he makes lemonade from lemons

 

[Luka]

On 10/10/2018 at 9:32 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Interesting point.  But I think the problem with guys like Brennan is they lacked physical skills and most likely peaked in college.  It’s why I hated Manziel.  He simply didn’t have the physical skills.  

 

Imo, super college production without physical skills guarantees nothing.  Good production plus physical skills equals a high draft pick. And lack of production plus physical skills equals prospect qb, which rarely succeed on the next level.

Of course this can happen and I think every Bills fans who doubts Allen would be very happy about this.  I’d also point out that Goff had like 50 tds in a power 5 conference and received possibly the best offensive coach in the nfl.  Allen wasn’t dominatin the MWC and had Brian Daboll, who has a terrible OC record in the nfl.

 

and the counter to your point is EJ Manuel after his first 4 games, which are completely superior to Allen.  And I defended EJ!  But I pray you are right.

 

You defended EJ? Even though with that weird throwing motion where he was trying to aim with his arm rather than his eyes? 5 300 yard games in 3 years, all coming against their "preseason" opponents?

 

How about Case Keenum as a guy with a bunch of stats that took years to start? And even then only by virtue of two injuries?

 

QB is crap shoot because it isn't just the player, it's the team, it's the coaching, it's the environment. The Bills front office even explained that Josh fit "The Process" so I don't know how much fans talk about was actually taken into account. 

[Augie]

We just need it to work ONCE! 

 

Please? 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

On 10/9/2018 at 8:09 PM, ProcessTruster said:

Not sure Allen qualifies as a project.   Most every scout had him in there with the top 4 QBs coming out.   Hopefully he's Ben Rothlisberger and not David Carr.  I like the run run and play defense approach.  Exactly what the Stillers did with Ben 15 years ago when he was a "project".   Boring for the fans, but it worked.  

 

 

...how about "project posters"?......any stats on success rate??...............

[DuckyBoys]

2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...how about "project posters"?......any stats on success rate??...............

Easy way out Bills are 0 fer since Kelly.  I think Allen deserves some time.  Meanwhile get him some help  Bills should trade for a young wr who get resigned by their team  Amari Cooper?  I'm tired of Benjamin jogging out there with butter hands