Spring League Success

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

With two spring leagues starting in the next two years, The Alliance of American Football in 2019, and a revamp of the XFL in 2020, which league will have the most long term success? 

Edited September 27, 2018 by The Real Buffalo Joe

[Dkollidas]

I think XFL will putter out quickly. I’m hoping the Alliance league will stick more to the script and hopefully what NFL Europe wanted to be. A place where undrafted and late round guys can be given a chance to develop and earn a bit of cash. 

 

Similar too, but far different than the AHL for the NHL. 

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

I think the XFL is going after the good ol' boy, anti kneeling crowd that are boycotting the NFL. They'll have some initially high ratings, but will putter out quicker. The XFL will probably sign some college stars that didn't pan out in the NFL. Manziel, Tebow, etc. If they learn from their mistakes, they'll be less gimmicky than last time. They'll probably also pander to the "NFL has gotten too soft" crowd. 

 

AAF will have smaller, but much more steady viewership. They also have the advantage of starting a year earlier. They seem to have a long term goal of forming an official partnership with the NFL. An NFL Europe, without the European aspect. 

[PromoTheRobot]

Spring ball won't succeed until the NFL signs off on a league that they run or at least support. There's definitely a market for spring football, but it needs massive marketing and TV exposure. The NFL can provide both.

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

7 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Spring ball won't succeed until the NFL signs off on a league that they run or at least support. There's definitely a market for spring football, but it needs massive marketing and TV exposure. The NFL can provide both.

If AAF survives the first two years, I can see them being absored by, or partnering with, the NFL.Their recruiting model already is based on each team only picking up players that most recently retired from certain NFL/NCAA teams. 

[KD in CA]

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Spring ball won't succeed until the NFL signs off on a league that they run or at least support. There's definitely a market for spring football, but it needs massive marketing and TV exposure. The NFL can provide both.

 

Exactly.  The only way it works is as the NFL's minor/developmental league.

 

[Seanbillsfan2206]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the XFL folds before it even begins

[Rc2catch]

It only works if they can land some actual talent. 

Think suspended NFL players, washed up guys who used to be stars.

And it only works if they emphasize the areas the NFL is screwing up.

Gotta have some elaborate celebrations that make headlines, some real rugged bonedrushing defense.

If it’s just watered down NFL nobody is gonna watch. 

[billsredneck1]

8 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Spring ball won't succeed until the NFL signs off on a league that they run or at least support. There's definitely a market for spring football, but it needs massive marketing and TV exposure. The NFL can provide both.

.......and players need money. they wanna get paid.

[BuffaloRush]

The AAF actually has a decent chance to succeed because of the football people running it.  I wouldn't be too shocked if the XFL never even makes it to air.  Also if they do, the AAF will have beat them to the punch

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

13 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

The AAF actually has a decent chance to succeed because of the football people running it.  I wouldn't be too shocked if the XFL never even makes it to air.  Also if they do, the AAF will have beat them to the punch

Agreed. Polian alone carries enough clout to be taken seriously. I said earlier in the thread, I wouldn't be surprised if they were absorbed by the NFL as an official developmental league. I'm sure there have been off the record conversations about it already. 

[Cash]

This is the first I'm hearing of the AAF, so I voted no on that.  Unfortunately for the XFL, I have already heard about it, including Vince McMahon's ad pitch for the reboot, so I voted no on that one as well.

[BuffaloRush]

1 hour ago, The Real Buffalo Joe said:

Agreed. Polian alone carries enough clout to be taken seriously. I said earlier in the thread, I wouldn't be surprised if they were absorbed by the NFL as an official developmental league. I'm sure there have been off the record conversations about it already. 

 

It would actually be a perfect development league for player that are on the fringe of making a low-end roster spot.  

[US Egg]

 If they worked together maybe a single new league could have a go at it, but two separate fledgling leagues, they're both doomed to fail.

[Buffalo716]

Everybody wants more football but a developmental league isn’t going to Happen for a few reasons 

 

The development league already exists , it’s called the NCAA and NFL practice squad

 

and the cream does rise to the top

 

If you CANNOT stick to an NFL practice squad with 1-2 years of trying there is no need to develop because you probably aren’t good enough for the league 

 

its the best 1% of football players in the world... the cream of the crop

 

there is also a shortage of GOOD NFL line play. NFL teams struggle to find Quality NFL lineman already... the line play in these leagues will be a joke because ALL the talented lineman with a chance to succeed are scooped by the NFL

 

its a great idea but it doenst really work ... baseball is played all over the world so MLB can have a minors.. they have the #s and talent

 

there aren’t enough high end football players in America for 2 competitive leagues... there is hardly enough for 1 

 

The #s and talent just isn’t there in large #s

 

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

On 9/28/2018 at 1:17 PM, Buffalo716 said:

Everybody wants more football but a developmental league isn’t going to Happen for a few reasons 

 

The development league already exists , it’s called the NCAA and NFL practice squad

 

and the cream does rise to the top

 

If you CANNOT stick to an NFL practice squad with 1-2 years of trying there is no need to develop because you probably aren’t good enough for the league 

 

its the best 1% of football players in the world... the cream of the crop

 

there is also a shortage of GOOD NFL line play. NFL teams struggle to find Quality NFL lineman already... the line play in these leagues will be a joke because ALL the talented lineman with a chance to succeed are scooped by the NFL

 

its a great idea but it doenst really work ... baseball is played all over the world so MLB can have a minors.. they have the #s and talent

 

there aren’t enough high end football players in America for 2 competitive leagues... there is hardly enough for 1 

 

The #s and talent just isn’t there in large #s

 

While you're probably 100% right, talent level would have little to do with either of them succeeding. It'll come down to marketing. In the same way that minor league baseball doesn't draw based on W/L, but what other gimmicks can draw a crowd. If the leauges signed a few big name college players, who couldn't make it in the NFL, (Tebow, Manziel, Trent Richardson, etc.) they'll draw. Hell, put a team in Alabama that recruits primarily Alabama/Auburn players, they'll have a respectable fan base who want to watch something waiting for the real season to start.

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, The Real Buffalo Joe said:

While you're probably 100% right, talent level would have little to do with either of them succeeding. It'll come down to marketing. In the same way that minor league baseball doesn't draw based on W/L, but what other gimmicks can draw a crowd. If the leauges signed a few big name college players, who couldn't make it in the NFL, (Tebow, Manziel, Trent Richardson, etc.) they'll draw. Hell, put a team in Alabama that recruits primarily Alabama/Auburn players, they'll have a respectable fan base who want to watch something waiting for the real season to start.

 

That’s not a bad idea with the Alabama team... fill them with undrafted Bama and Auburn guys and give them a team in that league 

 

probably be Champs lol

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

Just found out Houston is getting an XFL team, playing at UH's stadium. Will definitely be at first game, and if ticket prices are reasonable, might just get season tickets, assuming the league comes to fruition. 

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

The more I look into these leagues, I see the AAF possibly having success. They seem to be serious about developing their players to hopefully go on to careers in the NFL. AAF seems to want to be friendly with the NFL and NCAA. 

 

On the other hand, the XFL seems to want to be an alternative to the NFL. Not necessarily a direct competitor, but definitely take the NFL boycotters away. It also seems that, although not as gimmicky as the first time, the XFL will still be all about the spectacle. I see them signing a lot of big name has beens, IE Manziel. I wouldn't even be surprised to see them sign TO to a contract. Even if he only takes a few snaps, signs some autographs, and collects his paycheck. It's the name they're paying for. 

[Punching Bag]

On 9/28/2018 at 2:17 PM, Buffalo716 said:

Everybody wants more football but a developmental league isn’t going to Happen for a few reasons 

 

The development league already exists , it’s called the NCAA and NFL practice squad

 

and the cream does rise to the top

 

If you CANNOT stick to an NFL practice squad with 1-2 years of trying there is no need to develop because you probably aren’t good enough for the league 

 

its the best 1% of football players in the world... the cream of the crop

 

there is also a shortage of GOOD NFL line play. NFL teams struggle to find Quality NFL lineman already... the line play in these leagues will be a joke because ALL the talented lineman with a chance to succeed are scooped by the NFL

 

its a great idea but it doenst really work ... baseball is played all over the world so MLB can have a minors.. they have the #s and talent

 

there aren’t enough high end football players in America for 2 competitive leagues... there is hardly enough for 1 

 

The #s and talent just isn’t there in large #s

 

 

Development issues for offense linemen is due to the NFLPA.  It is the position which needs most development. It will not be an issue with the new development league unless the players are very, very stupid.

 

Plenty of players developed late - CFL, NFLE and Arena ball - and most of those opportunities are gone. There is no way all of the cream of the crop are in NFL as proved by these players coming in and excelling. 

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Development issues for offense linemen is due to the NFLPA.  It is the position which needs most development. It will not be an issue with the new development league unless the players are very, very stupid.

 

Plenty of players developed late - CFL, NFLE and Arena ball - and most of those opportunities are gone. There is no way all of the cream of the crop are in NFL as proved by these players coming in and excelling. 

The top .5% of those leagues can play in the NFL...

 

100% of NFL players would be very good players if not studs in those leagues 

[Mr. WEO]

On September 27, 2018 at 12:50 PM, PromoTheRobot said:

Spring ball won't succeed until the NFL signs off on a league that they run or at least support. There's definitely a market for spring football, but it needs massive marketing and TV exposure. The NFL can provide both.

 

 

There is no market for Spring pro football.  This has already been proven at least twice--the USFL and the XFL's utterly disastrous previous incarnation (NBC lost $35 MILLION).

 

The TV contract is a joke.  One game will nationally televised per week on CBS.  The players will be guys who cannot otherwise find jobs that pay over $75K a year.

 

 

[ButchCT]

It is possible thay both can succeed since they are aiming for different audiences but hard to see it happening.  XFL may die out from the stigma of being a WWE product. 

 

As the WFL and USFL proved, cant compete with the NFL.  There's people who feel the USFL could have succeeded if it stayed in the spring.  I have no opinion myself on that.  But there most definitely is a gaping market in the spring for some markets that would only have baseball, such as AAF markets.  And also a potential for minor league football to develop and succeed at this point in time.  I'd say the AAF has the best plan.

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

14 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

There is no market for Spring pro football.  This has already been proven at least twice--the USFL and the XFL's utterly disastrous previous incarnation (NBC lost $35 MILLION).

 

The TV contract is a joke.  One game will nationally televised per week on CBS.  The players will be guys who cannot otherwise find jobs that pay over $75K a year.

 

 

But the USFL was successful as a spring league. The reason it failed was because it decided to become a fall league and compete directly with the NFL. That's never gonna happen. The reason the AFL was successful, was because they were mostly placed in cities that didn't have an NFL team at the time. 

[PromoTheRobot]

11 hours ago, ButchCT said:

It is possible thay both can succeed since they are aiming for different audiences but hard to see it happening.  XFL may die out from the stigma of being a WWE product. 

 

As the WFL and USFL proved, cant compete with the NFL.  There's people who feel the USFL could have succeeded if it stayed in the spring.  I have no opinion myself on that.  But there most definitely is a gaping market in the spring for some markets that would only have baseball, such as AAF markets.  And also a potential for minor league football to develop and succeed at this point in time.  I'd say the AAF has the best plan.

 

12 minutes ago, The Real Buffalo Joe said:

But the USFL was successful as a spring league. The reason it failed was because it decided to become a fall league and compete directly with the NFL. That's never gonna happen. The reason the AFL was successful, was because they were mostly placed in cities that didn't have an NFL team at the time. 

 

The USFL actually proved (to ESPN and ABC who carried their games) that there indeed was a market for spring football. Their downfall came when the owner of the New Jersey Generals (you might have heard of him) decided to try and force a merger with the NFL (ala WHA) by moving into the fall and suing the NFL for antitrust. (The USFL actually won...a whole $3 in damages. Smooth move, Donny.)

 

Of course at the time the USFL aggressively went after top draft picks and had some real talent on their teams. And about half the cities drew crowds that rivaled the NFL. Could the USFL kept that up? No doubt player costs would have kept climbing with two leagues bidding for players, and despite decent TV ratings and attendance, the league was not profitable.

 

But a league that, maybe not endorsed by the NFL but works as a minor league to it, with manageable operating costs, can succeed. As RBJ noted, colleges don't give certain positions enough pro development. A halfway stop league where marginal college players can keep developing seems like a no-brainer. 

[Mr. WEO]

28 minutes ago, The Real Buffalo Joe said:

But the USFL was successful as a spring league. The reason it failed was because it decided to become a fall league and compete directly with the NFL. That's never gonna happen. The reason the AFL was successful, was because they were mostly placed in cities that didn't have an NFL team at the time. 

 

The USFL never played a Fall game.  By the second Spring season, many teams were hemorrhaging money.  Teams merged , folded or changed hands.  It was a mess.  Only the first season saw decent numbers (average attendance 25,000 per game).

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

13 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

 

The USFL actually proved (to ESPN and ABC who carried their games) that there indeed was a market for spring football. Their downfall came when the owner of the New Jersey Generals (you might have heard of him) decided to try and force a merger with the NFL (ala WHA) by moving into the fall and suing the NFL for antitrust. (The USFL actually won...a whole $3 in damages. Smooth move, Donny.)

 

Of course at the time the USFL aggressively went after top draft picks and had some real talent on their teams. And about half the cities drew crowds that rivaled the NFL. Could the USFL kept that up? No doubt player costs would have kept climbing with two leagues bidding for players, and despite decent TV ratings and attendance, the league was not profitable.

 

But a league that, maybe not endorsed by the NFL but works as a minor league to it, with manageable operating costs, can succeed. As RBJ noted, colleges don't give certain positions enough pro development. A halfway stop league where marginal college players can keep developing seems like a no-brainer. 

I think the success of the AAF will depend on what kind of partnership, or at least endorsement they get from the NFL. They already know they're a developmental league, and aren't trying to compete with the NFL. There are rumors that Vince McMahon won't let his players break their contract if they get an NFL offer.