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10 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Cam Newton and Matt Stafford are good QB's.  Cam has won an MVP.  JFC.

 

In other words, you define “good QB” as “throwing for a lot of yards and TDs”.  

Got it.

 

Quote

Anyone arguing that passing when you're behind isn't a good strategy is being silly to the point of not understanding anything about football.  Is it less effective if your QB sucks?  Obviously. Should you run the ball down 21 because your QB sucks?  ?

 

If you'd like to blow my mind, produce statistics that show that passing the ball when you're down is less effective than running the ball when you're down.  Produce the stats that show the folks who run in a deficit win more games.  Otherwise, the "passing yards is negatively correlated to wins" is the most worthless "point" ever uttered in the defense of TT.

 

I’m not going to respond to this for the most part.   You’re verging very close on being personally attacking/insulting and I don’t choose to engage with that, except to say that you appear to be totally missing the point, and I don’t particularly feel the need to defend that I know a little bit about football.

 

I’ll put out a notion though.  Go look at Newton’s passing yards and his team’s W-L record.  It’s not very hard to see that he became a more effective QB - when he passed less, and took more sacks - with about the same number of TD.  Why?  He was turning the ball over less, and overall being a more effective QB who took what the D gave him.    You can do a similar thing with Matt Stanford.

 

G’day!

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9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

In other words, you define “good QB” as “throwing for a lot of yards and TDs”.  

Got it.

 

 

I’m not going to respond to this.  You’re verging very close on being personally attacking/insulting and I don’t choose to engage with that, except to say that you appear to be totally missing the point, and I don’t think I need to defend that I know a little bit about football.

Um. Yes.  

 

Do you think Stafford and Cam AREN'T good QB's?

 

I'm not personally attacking YOU.  I'm attacking the thought that you brought up, this one.  

 

"The point is, is that actually the best strategy to increase their chances of coming from behind?  Amateur armchair analytics says "maybe not" or at least "not always, at the point where teams employ it"."

 

This is crazy.  Actually crazy. Implying that running the ball is more effective than passing as a strategy when you are down is basically sacrilege.  It's akin to implying that FG's are better to get that TD's.  

 

I mean, I'd need to see some hard numbers that imply ANYTHING of the sort before I'd even listen to that.

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8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I think you misunderstood. My indictment is of passing yards as an indicator of a game's particular outcome, which as you've explained is not a very relevant method of assessing the 'why' a particular game ended as it did. The negative correlation fits the bill, I agree. (...

 

If you just look at the top 5 QBs by passing yards in a given year, by and large they're going to be among the consensus 'best' QBs that year. Not coincidentally, the ones with the lowest amount of passing yards are by and large going to be among the consensus 'worst'. It's not the be-all and end-all (probably not even top 5) most important QB statistic, but to say that passing yards aren't indicative of the quality of a quarterback is pretty easily disproved by a cursory glance at yearly passing statistics. 

 

Then it would be a good thing that I didn’t say passing yards aren’t indicative of the quality of a QB, isn’t it?  My point is - you could look at another statistic - say, “team wins” and make the same statement - if you just look at the top 5 QB by wins in any given year, by and large they’re going to be among (fill in rest of statement).  But no one who studies player performance statistics would argue that team wins are an important metric for QB performance.

 

In any event, I think we agree more than we disagree with the above - passing yards overall are not a top-5 QB statistic or a “be all and end all”, and sure, roughly QB who can sling it and complete passes tend to be good NFL QB and QB who can’t, well, aren’t.  The reasons why “not a top 5 QB statistic” or “be all and end all”, I would guess you know and we probably also agree on (how many sacks?  How many INTs/fumbles?  Is this a guy who is moving the chains consistently, or missing a lot of “gimmes” then padding his yardage with deep zip-code balls?).

 

 

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9 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Um. Yes.  

 

Do you think Stafford and Cam AREN'T good QB's?

 

I'm not personally attacking YOU.  I'm attacking the thought that you brought up, this one.  

 

"The point is, is that actually the best strategy to increase their chances of coming from behind?  Amateur armchair analytics says "maybe not" or at least "not always, at the point where teams employ it"."

 

This is crazy.  Actually crazy. Implying that running the ball is more effective than passing as a strategy when you are down is basically sacrilege.  It's akin to implying that FG's are better to get that TD's.  

 

I mean, I'd need to see some hard numbers that imply ANYTHING of the sort before I'd even listen to that.

 

OK, this is better.  You’ve left out the stuff about silly and not understanding anything about football, so I’ll go.

 

Last point first: it’s a hard case to put hard numbers on, because one winds up comparing Team A and Team B and one can always argue that Team B had better talent or faced a worse D or something.  But let’s run a test case to see if I can get you to understand what I’m saying from a theoretical perspective.  I actually did a pretty hard analysis on a Bills game back in 2011 or 2012, it’s in the archives somewhere.

 

Key words: “at least, not always, at the point where teams employ it”.  Now of course, if your team has a Pinball Wizard at QB like Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, sure, sling it.  But most teams don’t, so let’s look.

 

Let’s say your team comes out 21 points behind at the half, 24 points when you get your hands on the ball 5 minutes into the 3rd Q.  What is the driver for passing?  In theory, it’s a more efficient use of the clock.  Your WR can get OOB and stop the clock.  You can achieve more yards per minute.  But is that what you need to do?  Is that your best strategy in this situation?  Presumably, either your QB has been throwing picks or your D hasn’t been getting reliable stops, or you wouldn’t be in this hole.  So you’ve got 25 minutes of game time left.  In the game I analyzed, we had Fredex and a competent CJ knocking off 5 YPA, and we were only about 20% slower per run play than per pass play because we weren’t good at working the sidelines.  It could be calculated that we had a better probability of scoring 4x while minimizing the probability that the other team would score, by sticking to the run with a judicious mix of passing, than by scrapping that and doing what Gailey did, which was going all pass-happy.  I’m pretty sure I’ve seen some other teams and games where that was true.

 

Of course, if you need 3 scores in 5 minutes or whatever, then your only option is pretty much Hail Marys, onside kicks, and prayers.

 

First point last: I think Matt Stanford is a very good QB now - has been very very good for the last 3 years.  Before that, he had a stellar season his 3rd year in the league, followed by 2 years where he passed a lot and threw a lot of TD, but also a lot of INTs and fumbled a lot, and hurt his team.  So even though he passed a lot and threw a lot of TDs in those early years, IMO he wasn’t a very good QB.

 

Likewise, Newton in his record-setting passing yards rookie season, was not a very good QB.  He threw too many picks and didn’t take care of the football.  It wasn’t until his third season, when he passed for 700 yards less (about 40 ypg less) and threw about the same number of TD but fewer picks and fumbles, that he became a good QB.  Since then he’s had ups and downs - his 2015 season was stellar, but the seasons flanking it not so much nor last season.  He’s certainly a dangerous QB who can burn you at any moment if you don’t take care, but I don’t consider him elite (JMO).

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9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I think you misunderstood. My indictment is of passing yards as an indicator of a game's particular outcome, which as you've explained is not a very relevant method of assessing the 'why' a particular game ended as it did. The negative correlation fits the bill, I agree.

 

But do passing yards tend to correlate with QB quality regardless of team record, defensive prowess, or a multitude of factors that also contribute to a game's final score? You betcha. And it makes sense intuitively; in general, the best quarterbacks will be able to accumulate the most yards passing over the course of a season (or career) because they're better at completing passes. They may be ASKED to do this more because their team is behind often, or their rushing offense isn't up to par, but is that an indictment of the quarterback or his team? That's what I meant by looking at 'position-specific' statistics...I believe it's useful to isolate players' individual contributions from how well their team played in a game or over a season, because the complexities between players and units over the course of a game or season are vastly complicated and not necessarily related to how they performed as individuals...poor team or great team, if a quarterback is completing passes for a lot of yards, he's doing his job well. 

 

If you just look at the top 5 QBs by passing yards in a given year, by and large they're going to be among the consensus 'best' QBs that year. Not coincidentally, the ones with the lowest amount of passing yards are by and large going to be among the consensus 'worst'. It's not the be-all and end-all (probably not even top 5) most important QB statistic, but to say that passing yards aren't indicative of the quality of a quarterback is pretty easily disproved by a cursory glance at yearly passing statistics. 

 

Ding! Ding! Ding!

 

There is a reason my profile picture is what it is. 

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Good lord these types of threads will always exist. Tyrod is what he is guys. There is no more ‘potential’. Tyrod is never going to be a guy who can put a team on his back and win a game. Tyrod can manage a game and keep a team in the hunt. Tyrod will never win a Super Bowl. That’s why you play the game.

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43 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, this is better.  You’ve left out the stuff about silly and not understanding anything about football, so I’ll go.

 

Last point first: it’s a hard case to put hard numbers on, because one winds up comparing Team A and Team B and one can always argue that Team B had better talent or faced a worse D or something.  But let’s run a test case to see if I can get you to understand what I’m saying from a theoretical perspective.  I actually did a pretty hard analysis on a Bills game back in 2011 or 2012, it’s in the archives somewhere.

 

Key words: “at least, not always, at the point where teams employ it”.  Now of course, if your team has a Pinball Wizard at QB like Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, sure, sling it.  But most teams don’t, so let’s look.

 

Let’s say your team comes out 21 points behind at the half, 24 points when you get your hands on the ball 5 minutes into the 3rd Q.  What is the driver for passing?  In theory, it’s a more efficient use of the clock.  Your WR can get OOB and stop the clock.  You can achieve more yards per minute.  But is that what you need to do?  Is that your best strategy in this situation?  Presumably, either your QB has been throwing picks or your D hasn’t been getting reliable stops, or you wouldn’t be in this hole.  So you’ve got 25 minutes of game time left.  In the game I analyzed, we had Fredex and a competent CJ knocking off 5 YPA, and we were only about 20% slower per run play than per pass play because we weren’t good at working the sidelines.  It could be calculated that we had a better probability of scoring 4x while minimizing the probability that the other team would score, by sticking to the run with a judicious mix of passing, than by scrapping that and doing what Gailey did, which was going all pass-happy.  I’m pretty sure I’ve seen some other teams and games where that was true.

 

Of course, if you need 3 scores in 5 minutes or whatever, then your only option is pretty much Hail Marys, onside kicks, and prayers.

 

First point last: I think Matt Stanford is a very good QB now - has been very very good for the last 3 years.  Before that, he had a stellar season his 3rd year in the league, followed by 2 years where he passed a lot and threw a lot of TD, but also a lot of INTs and fumbled a lot, and hurt his team.  So even though he passed a lot and threw a lot of TDs in those early years, IMO he wasn’t a very good QB.

 

Likewise, Newton in his record-setting passing yards rookie season, was not a very good QB.  He threw too many picks and didn’t take care of the football.  It wasn’t until his third season, when he passed for 700 yards less (about 40 ypg less) and threw about the same number of TD but fewer picks and fumbles, that he became a good QB.  Since then he’s had ups and downs - his 2015 season was stellar, but the seasons flanking it not so much nor last season.  He’s certainly a dangerous QB who can burn you at any moment if you don’t take care, but I don’t consider him elite (JMO).

But there's no numbers to support this.  Let's look at it.  We can even do 2011 Bills.

 

Fitzpatrick that year averaged a YPA of 6.7.  The Bills rushers averaged a YPC of 4.9.

 

Fitzpatrick averaged a TD% of 4.2%.  The Bills rushers averaged a TD% of 3.0%.

 

Fitzpatrick had a INT% of 4.0%.  The Bills rushers averaged a fumble% of 4.0% 

 

There is no other way to slice the numbers.  Per play, passing has always been more effective than rushing in gaining yardage and points faster.  The old adage is true.  Pass to score, run to win.  

 

Now surely, there are some games where your QB can't complete a pass.  But that's not common either.  The law of averages supports passing when in a deficit.  Indisputably. 

 

It sounds like you agree that Cam Newton and Stafford are good, so I won't belabor that point.  That's all I was saying, they are good.  Not HoF, not elite, just good.  And they both put up yards and points.

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5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, this is better.  You’ve left out the stuff about silly and not understanding anything about football, so I’ll go.

 

Last point first: it’s a hard case to put hard numbers on, because one winds up comparing Team A and Team B and one can always argue that Team B had better talent or faced a worse D or something.  But let’s run a test case to see if I can get you to understand what I’m saying from a theoretical perspective.  I actually did a pretty hard analysis on a Bills game back in 2011 or 2012, it’s in the archives somewhere.

 

Key words: “at least, not always, at the point where teams employ it”.  Now of course, if your team has a Pinball Wizard at QB like Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, sure, sling it.  But most teams don’t, so let’s look.

 

Let’s say your team comes out 21 points behind at the half, 24 points when you get your hands on the ball 5 minutes into the 3rd Q.  What is the driver for passing?  In theory, it’s a more efficient use of the clock.  Your WR can get OOB and stop the clock.  You can achieve more yards per minute.  But is that what you need to do?  Is that your best strategy in this situation?  Presumably, either your QB has been throwing picks or your D hasn’t been getting reliable stops, or you wouldn’t be in this hole.  So you’ve got 25 minutes of game time left.  In the game I analyzed, we had Fredex and a competent CJ knocking off 5 YPA, and we were only about 20% slower per run play than per pass play because we weren’t good at working the sidelines.  It could be calculated that we had a better probability of scoring 4x while minimizing the probability that the other team would score, by sticking to the run with a judicious mix of passing, than by scrapping that and doing what Gailey did, which was going all pass-happy.  I’m pretty sure I’ve seen some other teams and games where that was true.

 

Of course, if you need 3 scores in 5 minutes or whatever, then your only option is pretty much Hail Marys, onside kicks, and prayers.

 

First point last: I think Matt Stanford is a very good QB now - has been very very good for the last 3 years.  Before that, he had a stellar season his 3rd year in the league, followed by 2 years where he passed a lot and threw a lot of TD, but also a lot of INTs and fumbled a lot, and hurt his team.  So even though he passed a lot and threw a lot of TDs in those early years, IMO he wasn’t a very good QB.

 

Likewise, Newton in his record-setting passing yards rookie season, was not a very good QB.  He threw too many picks and didn’t take care of the football.  It wasn’t until his third season, when he passed for 700 yards less (about 40 ypg less) and threw about the same number of TD but fewer picks and fumbles, that he became a good QB.  Since then he’s had ups and downs - his 2015 season was stellar, but the seasons flanking it not so much nor last season.  He’s certainly a dangerous QB who can burn you at any moment if you don’t take care, but I don’t consider him elite (JMO).

 

I could have saved you a ton of time. As it turns out.... a QB's yds/gm actually appears to be a pretty good indicator of team success. Who would have guessed that quarterbacks who are able to move the football down the field by throwing it with the goal of scoring points are more likely to win games?  Weird, I know. 

 

Join me, Hap. Let's go on this little adventure together. 

 

Let's look at the top 10 QBs in yds/gm from last season and their W-L records & the bottom 10 QBs in yds/gm and their W-L records:

 https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/passing.htm#passing::20

 

After 8 seconds or so of hard statistical analysis, certain trends started to become apparent. 

 

Out of the top 10, only 2 had a losing record. Of the Top 5.... none of them had a losing record. 

 

Out of the bottom 10, only 3 QBs had a winning record. Out of the Bottom 5... well, only one of them had a winning record. (Here's a hint: he has a new pronunciation of his name this year.)

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

But there's no numbers to support this.  Let's look at it.  We can even do 2011 Bills.

Fitzpatrick that year averaged a YPA of 6.7.  The Bills rushers averaged a YPC of 4.9.

Fitzpatrick averaged a TD% of 4.2%.  The Bills rushers averaged a TD% of 3.0%.

Fitzpatrick had a INT% of 4.0%.  The Bills rushers averaged a fumble% of 4.0% 

 

This is where it gets troublesome to support was my point - because you can't take the same personnel and make different play choices and see what happens.

I appreciate your approach here, and see the logic of your argument (though that 4% INT and 6.7 YPA hurts my eyes to see.)

 

The numbers aren't really right to support the argument, though.

The Bills top rushers, FredEx and CJ, had attempt-weighted YPA of 5.4.  It only gets down to 4.9 when you mix in all the bit players - Choice, White, Smith etc.

(And all the bit players are a small percent of the mix outside Fitzy scrambles)

Likewise, top 2 rushers TD% of 3.6%; FredEx had a fumble percentage of 1% and CJ less than 2%.  I'm not sure where the average fumble % comes from (I usually dig stats out of PFR) but perhaps it also includes Fitzpatrick? whose fumbles largely came on called pass plays where he was trying to make something happen?

 

So now the turnover and TD% numbers are a lot closer.  The two disparate statistics are YPA, which is a differential of 1.3 YPA, and one that I haven't found anywhere - TIME per attempt.  I actually went through a game using the NFL play by play, noted the elapsed time for each pass and each run play, and averaged.  As I recall, the run plays on average took 20-30% longer than the pass plays, and this difference diminished during game time when the defense presumably played to keep the receivers in bounds.

 

The question can then be seen to become "given the scores needed, is there enough time to achieve the scores we need rushing, or with the team's preferred mix of rushing and passing, or is there not?"

 

My point is that often, when a team turns very pass heavy because they're behind, they actually have the time to make those scores with their preferred mix, and the slower pace would be to their benefit (minimizing the other team's time on offense), so that might not be what they should actually do.

 

10 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

There is no other way to slice the numbers.  Per play, passing has always been more effective than rushing in gaining yardage and points faster.  The old adage is true.  Pass to score, run to win.  

 

The other way to slice the numbers, and the way I'm slicing it, is to ask "is that higher efficiency in YPA and time per attempt a) needed to achieve the scores in the time remaining b) to the team's benefit, overall, in that it may give the ball to the other team's offense for longer?

 

What you're saying is the conventional wisdom, what I'm saying is that sometimes I believe that conventional wisdom is wrong, and coaches make changes to their play mix that is based on gut feeling or truisms (as you say) rather than actually maximizing win probability given the score differential and the remaining time.

 

10 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

It sounds like you agree that Cam Newton and Stafford are good, so I won't belabor that point.  That's all I was saying, they are good.  Not HoF, not elite, just good.  And they both put up yards and points.

 

We agree that they're good in the sense of "above average", but I thought the original contention was that if one looks at the top-5 passing yardage QB, you find the best (ie elite) QB in that list - not just good, elite.  And I'm not sure we agree on my point that it's not always so, and that sometimes for individual QB who have shown they can really rack up the passing yards, "less is more" because it reflects their transition to doing other things that QB are supposed to do such as taking the easy short pass over the lower-percentage deep throw and taking care of the football.  Stafford would be an example of a QB who has made the transition and still racks up the yardage.  Newton is off-and-on to this point, sort of like a superior version of Eli Manning (another QB who has sometimes hurt his team when he racks up 250 ypg and pushes 4000 yds in a season)

 

Anyway, good convo now so Thanks!

 

 

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11 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Good lord these types of threads will always exist. Tyrod is what he is guys. There is no more ‘potential’. Tyrod is never going to be a guy who can put a team on his back and win a game. Tyrod can manage a game and keep a team in the hunt. Tyrod will never win a Super Bowl. That’s why you play the game.

 

...seems to me to be a fair and equitable assessment.......and TT is NOT alone......how many guys can actually do this with regularity and consistency?...not many IMO....great teammate, great work ethic and competitor.....he just doesn't possess EVERY intangible that sets the great ones apart from the good ones, and you mentioned one of them...no harm, no foul here....maybe Hugh can get him closer to the next level.....best of luck TT.......

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On 8/23/2018 at 9:57 PM, Gugny said:

“It’s always going to be twice as bad just because of who I am – an African-American quarterback,” Taylor said. “Look across the league, man. We’re held to a certain standard. We almost have to be perfect.

“I wouldn’t say it’s just an African-American quarterback thing. It’s an African-American athlete thing – or just an African-American thing. And that’s not anything I just found out. It’s been that way since I was a kid.”

 

So, he's been a crappy QB since he was a kid.  Got it.

 

" dilusional "  African-American quarterback.

 

Always cracks me up when someone gets criticized for poor performance and THEN plays the race card:  OWN it dude.

 

And the truth is,  he didn't take nearly as much heat for that statement as I though he might, probably because people in Buffalo were pulling for him.

 

On 8/24/2018 at 5:18 AM, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Tyrod, whatever he is to anyone, has more wins, starts, TD’s,  probowls and career contract earnings Then all 3 Bills QBs combined. 

 

I unstand being happy the team has moved on, but the level of vitriol and hate are simply out of line with the facts. 

 

Jeez, can't he just SUCK - and leave it at that??

 

TYrod tried to make it personal - playing the race card - It didn't work but nobody HATED him for it.  

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35 minutes ago, Socal-805 said:

 

" dilusional "  African-American quarterback.

 

Always cracks me up when someone gets criticized for poor performance and THEN plays the race card:  OWN it dude.

 

And the truth is,  he didn't take nearly as much heat for that statement as I though he might, probably because people in Buffalo were pulling for him.

 

 

Jeez, can't he just SUCK - and leave it at that??

 

TYrod tried to make it personal - playing the race card - It didn't work but nobody HATED him for it.  

 

Because he doesn’t ‘suck’. He’s just not an elite QB.

 

i don’t know why people think he is the worst ever.

 

He simply isn’t. The facts have proven otherwise 

 

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5 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Because he doesn’t ‘suck’. He’s just not an elite QB.

 

i don’t know why people think he is the worst ever.

 

He simply isn’t. The facts have proven otherwise 

 

 

Actual Facts:  1 game

 

17 for 37 passing

 

46 % completion 

 

134 yards 

 

3.6 yards / attempt

 

1 INT

 

2 sacks

 

===================== NOT ELITE 

 

Guess who?

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Socal-805 said:

 

Actual Facts:  1 game

 

17 for 37 passing

 

46 % completion 

 

134 yards 

 

3.6 yards / attempt

 

1 INT

 

2 sacks

 

===================== NOT ELITE 

 

Guess who?

 

 

 

 

...WHO CARES?...stats alone mean squat and are easily manipulate d to prove one's point and disprove another's...next question...........HINT: Dilfer got his 2000 SB ring with a prolific performance of 125 yds passing...now what?.................

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Actual Facts:  1 game

 

14 for 28 passing

 

50 % completion 

 

123 yards 

 

4.39 yards / attempt

 

4 INT

 

2 sacks

 

===================== NOT ELITE 

 

Guess who?  

 

Yeah that guy obviously sucks. How is he in the NFL. Wait, its Tom Brady. 

 

Edited by ngbills
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2 hours ago, Socal-805 said:

 

Actual Facts:  1 game

 

17 for 37 passing

 

46 % completion 

 

134 yards 

 

3.6 yards / attempt

 

1 INT

 

2 sacks

 

===================== NOT ELITE 

 

Guess who?

 

 

 

 

 Aaron Rodgers ?

 

oops no he was 

 

17/42

 

40.5 percent completion 

 

185 yards

 

4.4 ypa

 

2 ints

 

1 sack 

 

Not saying Tyrod = A rod, you did 

 

 

2 hours ago, ngbills said:

Actual Facts:  1 game

 

14 for 28 passing

 

50 % completion 

 

123 yards 

 

4.39 yards / attempt

 

4 INT

 

2 sacks

 

===================== NOT ELITE 

 

Guess who?  

 

Yeah that guy obviously sucks. How is he in the NFL. Wait, its Tom Brady. 

 

Exactly- elite guys have bad games and so do bad ones, so do average ones. 

 

Tyrod isnt elite, but he’s proven himself beyond any of the other guys on the roster by quite a lot. 

 

Ps I hate this thread, guy is gone, Bills have moved on, I belive for all the right reasons, but the narrative this guy is the worst to ever play the game is wrong. 

 

Mccarron and Peterman have proven in no way they are upgrades. If Josh doesn’t pan out we are going to see the worst Bills qb play in several years. 

Edited by Over 29 years of fanhood
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