Greg Gabriel’s Negative Take on Josh Allen and Trumaine Edmunds (April)

[SoTier]

On 6/19/2018 at 10:25 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean a lot of people feel like this.  The Bills will look like geniuses or complete idiots for drafting Allen.  The overwhelming evidence of Allen is he fits the profile of qbs who bust at the next level.  

 

I agree.  Gabriel's evals of both Allen and Edmunds are about like the evals that other draft analysts put out around draft time.  Both are big risks, even without the fact that the Bills traded up to get both.

[H2o]

On 6/19/2018 at 10:22 AM, I am the egg man said:

This Gabriel can flap his wings all he wants ranting his angelic knowledge of football and most won't know him or cares who he is.

 

On 6/19/2018 at 10:30 AM, BuffaloRush said:

 

Thats the thing that he gets me.  Listen to the interview.  He speaks like he’s the only one who has answers.  He even spends a lot of time putting down writers who do mock drafts.  While he makes some good points, you get the impression that he thinks “my opinion is the only one that matters.” It makes for a good listen but at the same time Greg has never been the GM making the pick.  

You know why Gabriel acts the way he does? Because he was going off of the "PFF Draft Guide" like so many of the other scouts and GM's around the NFL, that's why. 

[Buftex]

On 6/19/2018 at 9:30 AM, BuffaloRush said:

 

Thats the thing that he gets me.  Listen to the interview.  He speaks like he’s the only one who has answers.  He even spends a lot of time putting down writers who do mock drafts.  While he makes some good points, you get the impression that he thinks “my opinion is the only one that matters.” It makes for a good listen but at the same time Greg has never been the GM making the pick.  

Wasn't Gabriel a director of college scouting for the Bears at one time?

[ColdFront_USAF]

On 6/19/2018 at 11:31 PM, eball said:

 

Agree with your first sentence.  I think "complete idiots" is a gross overstatement.  And "overwhelming evidence" of being a bust?  Hardly.  People are lazily looking at completion percentage and assuming that correlates to accuracy without factoring in the scheme, talent, play calling, etc.  I made that mistake myself pre-draft, before I actually took the time to learn more about Allen.

 

This is exactly how I was. I said pre-draft, I would like one of Mayfield, Darnold or Rosen, and I would be okay with Allen if the others were taken. I was just being lazy, and agreeing with everyone pointing at completion percentage and lazy statistics that don't look any deeper than surface level. Since then, I've found plenty of reason to be hyped for Allen, and I hope he makes the best of his chance here. 

[The_Dude]

We need to stop being mad at people who are negative about our team. 

 

If you disagree with me, fine. The way to handle that is to prove all the negativity wrong by displaying the Bills trophy case. 

[liverpoolkev]

On ‎6‎/‎19‎/‎2018 at 10:11 AM, BuffaloRush said:

 

For anyone that has never heard it before, this dude Pat Moran has a great podcast called Moran-Alytics.  I guess that has been a blogger in Buffalo for nearly a decade and has the change to cover the Bills and Sabres for a few smaller publications.

His podcast is focused largely on Bills and NFL football and he brings on many members of the Buffalo media and former players as well.

 

http://moranalytics.com/ep-08-greg-gabriel-30-year-nfl-scout/

 

I went through his earlier archives and listened to former NFL scout and WNY native Greg Gabriel in April just before the NFL Draft.  I've followed Greg on Twitter for a few years until he blocked me for disagreeing him. If you follow him, you know he is very much opinionated and outspoken.  He was a staunch critic of Tyrod and a supporter of Peterman, which surprisingly died down after the start in San Diego.  Go figure....

 

Anyway a few months ago, Greg was not a fan of Josh Allen or the majority of the QB's in this years draft.  He said that all of the QB's are "overrated" and thinks it's possible that all but 1 will bust.  He gives Baker Mayfield the best chance at succeeding.  He is unsure about Darnold and feels that Josh Rosen lacks the intangibles to be successful.    

 

(Around 30 minutes) When Allen came up, he pretty much ripped him as a QB prospect.  He said that Josh will be another Kyle Boller or Blaine Gabbert.  A strong-armed QB who lacks the accuracy and mechanics to be successful.  He said that Allen should have had, at minimum a 64% completion percentage in his conference and probably higher given the competition. 

 

Greg believes that these types of risks are the ones that get coaches and GM's fired.  If he were the Bills he would have drafted Mason Rudolph and then taken another QB as well.  He actually thought he might be a top 10 pick!!!!!

 

(Around 36 minutes) When the discussion turns to LB, Greg feels that the Bills would love Roquon Smith and compared him to Luke Kuechley.  He did mention Trumaine Edmunds but said that he lacked the instincts at MLB.  He said that Edmunds reacts instead of anticipating and is basically an OLB playing MLB.  He recommended Vander Esch as a better fit.  

 

If you listen to this interview - you will hear that Greg was very opinionated on these players before the draft in April.  I'm not sure if he has changed his stance since then, but it's clear he is not a fan.

I agree with him 100%...…. pegulas don't have a good track record of hiring competent front office personnel  for the sabres or the bills 

[Greybeard]

On 6/19/2018 at 4:38 PM, JESSEFEFFER said:

Wyoming had 5 first or second team choices for the All MWC offense in 2016.  Josh Allen  was the only one of them who returned for 2017.  They went from 207 to 109 ypg rushing and 4.6 to 3.2 ypc.   I think his 2017 targets caught the ball well enough but offered little in terms of YAC.  There was little going on for the Wyoming offfense that would boost Allen's production and probably left him facing an inordinate amount of 3rd and long situations.

           I don't know if you were the first to post that in this thread or not, but this is true.   His receiver corp was lost to graduation so he did not have the targets he had in 2017.   He was also the victim of many drops.

          As in any preseason article, when it is negative most everyone gets defensive and when it is positive everyone thinks it was a great pick.  In reality all the speculation doesn't matter.  It is extremely difficult to tell who will succeed or fail.  When you get it right the odds are you just got lucky.  On top of that, there are probably as many busts who lost their careers because of poor situations as there have been success's. 

       So really, all this proves is we can kill time speculating about our favorite team.  Nothing matters until they take the field.

[Thurman#1]

On 6/27/2018 at 12:51 AM, The_Dude said:

We need to stop being mad at people who are negative about our team. 

 

If you disagree with me, fine. The way to handle that is to prove all the negativity wrong by displaying the Bills trophy case. 

 

 

 

This.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

On 6/22/2018 at 2:24 PM, BillsfanAZ said:

I am so tired of hearing about completion percentage. That is about the worst stat to judge a QB by. Here is a link to the best completion percentages by college QBs....see how many of them were quality NFL QB's.

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/pass-cmp-pct-player-career.html

 

Completion percentage matters, but it's a starting place.  If a QB has a great college completion percentage, it doesn't mean he'll do squat in the NFL, but if he doesn't have an adequate college completion percentage, it's a watch-out; better be sure you understand why. 

 

In the case of Allen and the Bills, the Bills evidently feel part of Allen's low completion percentage is rooted in problems with lower-body mechanics that can be fixed.  I saw them as WTF? throws, but that's why they're in the NFL and I'm in an armchair.  (His WR did NOT have more recorded drops than other QB - in fact less than two other QB in the draft, Rosen and Jackson). 

 

I've said this before in one of the many Allen threads right after the draft, but it may be worth looking at again.  There is allegedly a correlation between a certain level of college accuracy (reflected in completion percentage) and success in the NFL.  But any statistical correlation depends upon whether the boundary conditions of the data set apply to the individual you're looking at.  A lot of college QBs these days come from a spread offense that pumps up completion %.  A lot of college QBs also come from a sports system where they are single-sport focused since youth, and have had extensive coaching in their sport.  Then there's the quality of the supporting cast - RB, WR, OL.  None of those things apply to Allen. 

 

So does that mean it will be easier for him to change and improve?  Maybe.  Time will tell.

[Cripple Creek]

On 6/20/2018 at 5:13 PM, BigHornWY said:

Hey all, Wyoming Cowboys fan turned Bills fan (with the draft of Allen). It is interesting reading opinions on Allen from your perspective. I wanted to pipe in an give a perspective from a guy that follows Wyoming very closely. First off I will say that there is obviously no certainty that Allen will end up being a great NFL QB.

 

With that being said, here are a few observations to think about. 1. In the Iowa game alone there were, off the top of my head, 4 or more easy perfectly thrown balls that ended up being  drops, one in the end zone, and the others were complete drive killers. If the receivers catch those balls, not only is it a closer game but Allen's completion percentage goes above 65% (the magic number right?). 2. Before Allen got to Wyoming (and in the two games at the end of the year last year when he was injured), this team had a very hard time winning, as proven by losing to the worst team in FBS, San Jose State at the end of last year. Allen really made that offense go. 3. This may be the most frustrating thing as a fan, play calling. The O coordinator often times called running plays on first and second down (with a horrid running game), only to have the offense in third and long situations. That, along with an O line that made him run for his life, and try to make things happen, probably made up for some forced throws that didn't move the chains. 4. The lack of a running game last year. As football fans, you all know the importance of having a successful running game and how that opens up the passing game. This was one of, if not the worst running offenses, I have ever seen at Wyoming. 5. There were certainly times where Allen missed a throw he should have made, or forced a throw he shouldn't have, but the guy absolutely won Wyoming more games than he ever lost. The dude is a competitor and has that "it" factor. 

 

It is a little frustrating to hear different opinions about completion percentage and playing against weaker opponents etc. Carson Wentz played against weaker opponents but he was driving a Cadillac of that division. In recent history the QBs that have been drafted from Oklahoma, USC et.al. have tanked for the most part. They also were driving Cadillac's in addition to running spread systems. Allen ran a pro system in college and I do believe that gives him a leg up.  In 2016 Allen had a lot more weapons and really had a lot more productive year, but was still lining up behind a poor offensive line. 

 

But to reiterate, there is no guarantee the he will be the savior of the Bills, but he has just as good of chance as anyone in my opinion. Time will tell.  

Welcome aboard. You bring up good points about the other “pedigree” QBs. I screamed when Allen was picked, but quickly changed my tune. He seems like a great kid and I hope he’s the face of the franchise for the next 20 years.