Myth that we traded up to 12 to grab a QB

[BillsFan17]

Funny story now the Bills are rumored to try and move up to sixth overall per NFL Network.

 

But yeah all a big MYTH

[maryland-bills-fan]

52 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Really?

You truly think that they sold all those assets and passed on two QBs last year, then passed on the the FA market just to not take QB?

Just stop with the hypothetical bs.....(("They" are two quite different sets of people.  the ones who passed on two QB last year are no longer running the Bills.   They didn't "pass" on the FA market.  Have you noticed that McCarron is on the roster?  Have you noticed that there are several teams with QB who might be traded.  Foles anybody?   They were not going into this year with Peterman as the #1 QB))

 

The op is proposing the idea that they didn't intend to get a QB this year.

That's just plain wrong.  ((Okay,  you should go back and read the OP.  He said that they may not have planned on getting one of the "big four" QB's. (.. and which ones are the first 4 is all over the map.))

 

Will they get a QB? 

We don't know until the draft, but if they don't get one, it's because no trades came up that they were able to bite on, or nobody was available that they felt good enough about drafting in that spot.

 

It's a colossal failure of  "the process" if they don't get a QB and they know it.  (( I don't understand.  If there are reasons (see first sentence) why they can't or don't move up...... then (second sentence) it is the failure of "the process"?     Please take the wish for an immediate savior down a notch.   The "process" (a rational and weighted approach to team improvement) doesn not necessarily have to conform to what you really want.)

With all due respects....

 

58 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Eli Manning

Big Ben

Aaron Rodgers

Matt Stafford

Goff

Wentz

Rivers

Matt Ryan

Andrew Luck

Watson

Winston

Mariota

Flacco 

Bortles

Cam Newton

Alex Smith

Mahomes

 

 

 

Might be missing some

That's 16 of the starters being first round picks.

Half the league starters are taken in the first round only.

A few others in the second.

No not all those guys are elite amazing, but overall it's a pretty good group.

 

 

 

 

 

and the 16 other starters who were not taken in the first round.........what were they,   Gaelic rule football players or guys from later rounds?

[Skins Malone]

2 hours ago, jahbonas said:

And because (as you point out) they are not guarantees you mitigate that risk by having more of them - not less.

 

No team in the last 15yrs has traded down more often than the Patriots  - they ignore the media myths of 'superstars' and know in the era of salary cap its about getting as many quality players on cheap (rookie deals) contracts as possible... that means multiple 2nd and 3rds over a single 1

They have Tom Brady.  Thats what makes the difference..not because they move down alot. 

[Mickey]

26 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

With all due respects....

 

and the 16 other starters who were not taken in the first round.........what were they,   Gaelic rule football players or guys from later rounds?

No, not Gaelic Rules Football,  apart from a few gems they mostly played mediocre rules football. Tyrod is one of them and granted, he was a starter and he wasn't drafted in the first round but he also wasn't good enough to keep on our roster. Good QB's can be found in rounds other than the first, you are absolutely right. Thing is, I don't think anyone is arguing with you. All they are saying is that statistically, the hit rate on QB's is higher at the top of the draft. Responding to that with examples of non-first round QB's is just not relevant. Its like responding to an argument that water is wet by steadfastly maintaining that fire is hot. You're not wrong but...

Edited April 19, 2018 by Mickey

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, jahbonas said:

Beane moved up to 12 not necessarily to get closer to the top of the draft - he moved because going from 21 to 12 represented the most value (2nd rd pick equivalent) he could acquire for Gordy Glenn. He may very well take the 12th pick and trade back into the 20s and get the extra 2nd rd pick for doing so and let the draft come to him.  This draft is deep picking 22 & 28 and then 3 picks in round2  and then 2 in round 3 would be huge. Locking in 7 quality players for 4/5 years on cheap rookie contracts  - no way you piss that away

 

Beane didnt trade a 2nd rd pick to move up to 12.   He took the best value available to him while unloading Glenn and his big contract - very different.

People tend not to believe Beane or others when they say things that people don't want to believe.  When they made the deal, Beane said that it was a good opportunity (essentially good value), so they made the move.   He was quite clear that it wasn't part of a plan to do anything (either move up or not, either get a QB or not).   He just liked being at 12 without Glenn better than being at 21 with him.   Why?  Because it gives him options in the draft, options to move up, down or stay put.  

 

Beane's going to do what he's said for weeks - he's going to continue to evaluate and decide what to do next.   His appetite to move up will depend on how strongly he feels about his favorite QB.   That, in turn, depends in part about how strongly he feels about McCarron.   If he really loves some QB in the draft, he'll go pretty far to move up, but he's always said it's important to maintain discipline (which means it's important not to overspend to get what you want).    

 

Is it possible that he does something in the next week with the Browns and/or Giants?    Sure, it's possible, but that's three teams making some pretty high-stakes gambles.   I don't expect a move up to one or two.   Definitely not a move to three.   So that means to me that there'll be no move up until the night of the draft.    Beane's not moving to 4 unless he really loves the guy who is there - there probably isn't a team that has the draft capital to satisfy the Browns in a deal.   So with the Browns on the clock, Beane's asking himself whether he's willing to lose his favorite guy to the Broncos.   If the answer is yes, he can live with it, then it gets to be fun.    

 

Suppose there's a QB Beane really wants after the Broncos have picked.   It's quite possible that Colts, Bucs, Bears, Niners and Raiders don't want a QB, and maybe even the Dolphins.  So Beane's asking himself:  "My guy is at six, and he could fall all the way to 12.   But Miami might take him at 11, and maybe even Colts or Bucs.   And any one of those teams, Colts thru Dolphins, could trade back and let a QB-needy team move up.   Cardinals, Ravens, Chargers.  The problem for them is that they don't have great assets to trade.  Moving from, say 16 to 6 may cost two seconds or next year's first.   Could happen.   Moving 16 to 11, however, may cost only a second this year.  The GM at each club has to decide what Beane has to decide - how much do I like the guy and what am I willing to pay? 

 

Looked at another way, three QBs almost certainly are going off the board in the top 5 picks (Browns, Jets, Giants and Broncos), and possibly four.   If Beane's in love with one, he has to pay what the Giants or the Browns want.    

 

My guess?   The price is too high to go up into the top 5 - it's just too big a risk.  On the night of the draft,  if a QB his likes survives the top 5, Beane moves up to someplace from 6 to 10, because the risk is just too high that the Dolphins either take a QB or trade back to let someone else take one.    Personally, I'm hoping Mayfield or Rosen is there at 6 and falls to 10.  Then Beane makes a relatively little deal with the Raiders and gets him.    And if they're gone, and Darnold too, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Bills take Rudolph at 12.    And then Beane might package 22 with a later round pick to move up 13 or 14 for a middle linebacker.   

 

 

[SouthNYfan]

30 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

With all due respects....

 

and the 16 other starters who were not taken in the first round.........what were they,   Gaelic rule football players or guys from later rounds?

 

There are what?

7 rounds?

So half the league starters in the first 32 picks.

The other in the next 172 picks.

Math is hard.

 

The rest of your post was quoted poorly so it won't copy down, so I'm going to have to make due with it this way (yours are in red):

 

-"They" are two quite different sets of people.  the ones who passed on two QB last year are no longer running the Bills.   They didn't "pass" on the FA market.  Have you noticed that McCarron is on the roster?  Have you noticed that there are several teams with QB who might be traded.  Foles anybody?   They were not going into this year with Peterman as the #1 QB))

 

 

- ((Okay,  you should go back and read the OP.  He said that they may not have planned on getting one of the "big four" QB's. (.. and which ones are the first 4 is all over the map.))

 

-(( I don't understand.  If there are reasons (see first sentence) why they can't or don't move up...... then (second sentence) it is the failure of "the process"?     Please take the wish for an immediate savior down a notch.   The "process" (a rational and weighted approach to team improvement) doesn not necessarily have to conform to what you really want.)

 

Foles has been discussed ad-nauseum.

They want a first and a third for him.

They are more than happy to hold onto him.

Stop banging his drum.

We did pass on the FA market and took mccarron as an afterthought.

He wasn't the plan all along, which is why we waited until after every other QB was signed.

McDermott was running the draft last year, Whaley was just there for show.

 

They definitely planned on one of the top QBs.

The top 4 are darnold, Mayfield, Rosen, and Allen.

 

The process was to get a top QB.

The op is opining that they didn't plan to go big for a QB.

I understand sometimes you can't make the trades, that doesn't mean it's not a failure just because nobody else would trade with you.

If you have a plan and it fails, that's a failure.

[Boatdrinks]

2 hours ago, jahbonas said:

Big QB draft of 1983 - Miami had to settle with Marino at 28 rather than trading the farm to move up for Elway or Kelly.

 

Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers - the poor Steelers had to sit at 10 and take the leftover Big Ben  - Gee the Steelers hould have traded the 2 #1 and #2's to go up to get Eli?

 

In 2005 Green Bay should have traded multiple 1's to get up to #1 to take Alex Smith rather than sit and take Aaron Rogers

 

Give any QB quality line and coaching and things work out well - most 'busted' QBs are a result of that not happening

So most QB busts are really good to great NFL players, they just didn't have the Coach or OL that allowed them to show it ? It's too bad that the Bills had their franchise guys in Losman and EJ, but were unable to coax the greatness out of them. Sorry , that's not how it works. There are always exceptions / outliers but for the most part you're either good or you're not. 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 hours ago, teef said:

i can't believe that with years of uncertainty at the qb position, some people are scared to aggressively go after one.  i understand there is no guarantee that trading up will mean a star is taken, but if the bills have a guy they've identified as, "their guy" i hope they do all they can to get him.  enough is enough here.

 

It's BBFS, Battered Bills Fan Syndrome. We've grown to love the losing. If the losing stops, what will we have left? Change is scary, and the Bills love us, we jsut make them mad sometimes so they lose to teach us a lesson. They're doing us a favor. We dont need to try to be the best. Stay drafting in the middle of the rounds. 7-9 is just so comfortable.

[Paulus]

3 hours ago, jahbonas said:

Beane moved up to 12 not necessarily to get closer to the top of the draft - he moved because going from 21 to 12 represented the most value (2nd rd pick equivalent) he could acquire for Gordy Glenn. He may very well take the 12th pick and trade back into the 20s and get the extra 2nd rd pick for doing so and let the draft come to him.  This draft is deep picking 22 & 28 and then 3 picks in round2  and then 2 in round 3 would be huge. Locking in 7 quality players for 4/5 years on cheap rookie contracts  - no way you piss that away

 

Beane didnt trade a 2nd rd pick to move up to 12.   He took the best value available to him while unloading Glenn and his big contract - very different.

I don't know if I'd pass up that, but the QBs in this class are pretty damn interesting.

[DrDawkinstein]

The biggest myth is that keeping all our picks guarantees hits at every pick. Chances are we'll hit on 33% of the early picks. So 2-3 out of 7. So instead of taking a shot at a premier QB, folks would be happier with coming out with a good LB and a decent WR, for example. Yawn. More losing. See you at 6-10.

[Matt_In_NH]

It is not a myth....lets revisit after the first round.

 

You will not convince me  that all the trades for "draft capital" from last year (including the Glenn trade) and this year are to get the best QB prospect they can get their hands on.  They are screaming the want to get as high in this draft as they can without actually saying it.

Edited April 19, 2018 by mattynh

[without a drought]

If they have a guy they believe in and the capital to move up and get him,  then decide to stay put and settle with leftovers,  there is no process, it's all bull. 

[BringBackOrton]

3 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

No guarantee they will be good players. Our most recent 2nd round pick just released a naked blood video. Some of you have fallen in love with these draft picks and built up the prospects in you mind. The Patriots have 2 1st and 2 2nd rd picks and already have way more talent than us. So what will separate us in the post-Brady years? a couple extra picks? or hitting a home run with the QB? 

Cmon!

 

A couple more Shaw Lawson's, Raglands, and Zay Joneses are gonna get us over the hump!

[Estelle Getty]

3 hours ago, BillsFan17 said:

Is that why they waited as long as they did then paid him a backups contract?

 

There were times in Cincinnati where they weren't overly thrilled with Dalton, but never pulled him for AJ...

 

3 hours ago, kdiggz said:

ah yes, that sneaky Jim Harbaugh hiding the best QB in the draft on the 3rd string so brother John can get his franchise QB

 

You just don't know enough about the history of the NFL.  Mike Brown would NEVER let his coaches bench a mediocre guy he gave that much $ to. I laugh everytime I see this argument come up.  

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

McCarron's 2015 game logs below.

I would personally say inability to rack up more than 200 ypg and 6 ypa, while throwing behind the OL Cincy had in 2015 and to AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, and Mohammed Sanu, would have to be classed, if not as a "weakness", at least as something that needs to improve dramatically for him to be viable as an NFL QB.

 

I have no idea where you come up with the "top 3 QB in this class" thing, even with the games below.  McCarron came out in 2014 and was evaluated behind Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr, and Garappolo.  I like AJ, and I would have to say he would still be evaluated behind them all - possibly ahead of Bridgewater, who would now be trailing the pack due to injury derailment.  This year, I think AJ would be tucked in ahead of Mason Rudolph at the top of the 2nd tier - a capable, competent QB with no red flags who played surrounded by talent and who looks as though he might have maxed out his physical potential at a low-NFL-level.  McCarron would get the "nod" over Rudolph because he played in a pro-style offense and made progressions, but no one would put him ahead of Darnold's elite playmaking skills, Rosen's elite passing talent, or Allen's elite physical gifts.  Well, unless they diss off Rosen's "character" concerns enough in which case I say "BWAHAHAHAHAHA! Let's draft Rosen!"

 

									Passing											Rushing
Rk	Date	G#	Age	Tm		Opp	Result	GS	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD
	7 Games						5-2-0		79	119	66.39	854	6	2	97.1	12	63	7.18	7.43	14	31	2.21	0
1	2015-11-05	8	25-053	CIN		CLE	W 31-10		0	0		0	0	0		0	0			2	-2	-1.00	0
2	2015-11-29	11	25-077	CIN		STL	W 31-7		1	1	100.00	3	0	0	79.2	0	0	3.00	3.00	0	0		0
3	2015-12-06	12	25-084	CIN	@	CLE	W 37-3		2	3	66.67	19	0	0	84.0	0	0	6.33	6.33	0	0		0
4	2015-12-13	13	25-091	CIN		PIT	L 20-33		22	32	68.75	280	2	2	90.6	3	18	8.75	7.19	3	8	2.67	0
5	2015-12-20	14	25-098	CIN	@	SFO	W 24-14	*	15	21	71.43	192	1	0	115.6	4	18	9.14	10.10	2	2	1.00	0
6	2015-12-28	15	25-106	CIN	@	DEN	L 17-20	*	22	35	62.86	200	1	0	87.8	2	14	5.71	6.29	4	21	5.25	0
7	2016-01-03	16	25-112	CIN		BAL	W 24-16	*	17	27	62.96	160	2	0	103.9	3	13	5.93	7.41	3	2	0.67	0

 

I thought you were laying your Sar Chasm open before our unwary feet, but it's very hard to tell on this board sometimes.

People seriously bring out the most ...amazing.... views.

 

Although I appreciate your insight and agree with a couple of things you said overall you are a bit off the mark.  If you go back and research Mccarron was widely viewed as a 1st or 2nd round pick by many evaluators.  He interviewed poorly at the combine and his stock plummeted.  We have seen over and over the effect the combine can have on draft stocks.  Im not saying he is the answer, simply that he does not have many weak spots when looking at his college and bro career.