Sal C: "Despite Roster Holes, Bills still need to be aggressive for QB"

[MAJBobby]

Thank you Sal

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

5 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

"........First, it was Eric Wood retiring. Now Richie Incognito.  Seven free agents have left for other teams, including starting middle linebacker Preston Brown, with no apparent successor in his place yet on the roster.  There are certainly question marks hanging over Zay Jones’ head after his bizarre incident in Los Angeles. ......."     So run in the other direction???   How about a plan where we build a team and then bring in a good QB?  Why not trade a high 2nd from this year for a 1st for next year and trade a low 1st from this year for a high first for next year.    Invest the results from those into the next years draft (supposed to have some really good QB's) and get the guy then.  In the meantime put draft capital into long-lived meat-and-potatoe linemen and linebackers and improve the quality of tools

Does one of the three give you success?   What if you do the first but can't do anything (5% success) on the other two?  What does that give you.  I like rainbows and pixey dust too, but you can't do all three at the same time starting where we are at.

You’re wrong about next years qbs. They’re garbage.

[ALF]

This is the draft to get a QB. Trade up if possible and sit that QB for the 1st season at least. Plenty of cap space in 2019 to help rebuild the OL.

 

Plan B draft Lamar , Rudolph or trade for Foles later in season . 

[JaCrispy]

Good!

 

its always hardest to get the qb...other positions can always be filled in someway

[DFT]

Free Agency is going to look very different next year.   Get your QB this year.  Do anything and everything to get your QB in this draft.   

Edited April 11, 2018 by DFT

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

 

Invest the results from those into the next years draft (supposed to have some really good QB's) and get the guy then. 

 

 

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2765375-a-way-too-early-look-at-the-potential-2019-nfl-draft-qb-class

 

"This cycle is a weak one for QBs after the bounty in 2018, but Patterson is a potential difference maker if available."

 

https://247sports.com/Article/2019-NFL-Draft-A-way-too-early-big-board-for-2019-prospects-114189631

 

"2018 NFL Draft: Will Questionable 2019 Quarterback Class Cause Panic?"

 

https://withthefirstpick.com/2018/03/23/2018-nfl-draft-will-questionable-2019-quarterback-class-cause-panic/

 

 

 

Wishing it was a good QB year next year doesn't make it so. That's not the way it looks so far, and that's surprising because nearly every year is reported as being a good crop until the year comes and they start making mistakes in game play. But this year 2019 is reported as weak, maybe in comparison to the strong crop this year.

 

These are the first three reports off google, but it wasn't difficult to find a bunch even though a huge majority of the coverage is of course about the 2018 draft.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2018 by Thurman#1

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2765375-a-way-too-early-look-at-the-potential-2019-nfl-draft-qb-class

 

This cycle is a weak one for QBs after the bounty in 2018, but Patterson is a potential difference maker if available.

 

https://247sports.com/Article/2019-NFL-Draft-A-way-too-early-big-board-for-2019-prospects-114189631

 

"2018 NFL Draft: Will Questionable 2019 Quarterback Class Cause Panic?"

 

https://withthefirstpick.com/2018/03/23/2018-nfl-draft-will-questionable-2019-quarterback-class-cause-panic/

 

 

 

Wishing it was a good QB year next year doesn't make it so. That's not the way it looks so far, and that's surprising because nearly every year is reported as being a good crop until the year comes and they start making mistakes in game play. But this year 2019 is reported as weak, maybe in comparison to the strong crop this year.

 

These are the first three reports off google, but it wasn't difficult to find a bunch even though a huge majority of the coverage is of course about the 2018 draft.

 

 

 

 

Yes,  what I've seen agrees with that. I don't follow the college game that closely, so I don't have any sleepers myself.   I wonder a little, if this years hype is a little bit of a new cottage industry for sports reporters and maybe there isn't as much quality there as is being said. Is there a top 2 or 3 or 6?  ( https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/11/best-quarterback-nfl-draft-darnold-rosen-allen-mayfield-themmqb-newsletter      ) 

[Wayne Cubed]

6 hours ago, JOSH HUFF said:

Frist Round BUST QBs in the top 15 picks since 2000:

 

2002:  drafted 1. David Carr, Fresno State, Texans drafted 3. Joey Harrington, Oregon, Lions

2003: drafted 7. Byron Leftwich, Marshall, Jaguars

2006: drafted 3. Vince Young, Texas, Titans drafted 10. Matt Leinart, USC, Cardinals drafted11. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt, Broncos(had a few good years) 

2007: drafted 1. JaMarcus Russell, LSU, Raiders

2009: drafted 5. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets

2011: drafted 8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans drafted 10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars drafted 12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings

2012: drafted 2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins drafted 8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins (couple decent years)

2014: drafted 3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars  (not that good)

Just because you pick a QB at #1 overall does not mean your getting an amazing QB.  Best QB's of all time in my opinion Brady & Montana and they were not first round draft picks. Favre was not a first round pick. Rodgers & Brees were mid to late first rounders.  Why toss all your picks at 1 player who could be a bust!  The best QB could be Falk or Mason who knows.  But saying we got a franchise guy because we picked a QB at number 1 or 2 overall, come on!!  How did JaMarcus Russel, Robert Griffen, & David Carr turn out?  Do you feel any of these guys are the next Peyton Manning?  If so, tell me why.  

 

 

 

Now list all the QBs who were selected past the first round who busted from that same time frame, I'll wait.

 

You know who were 1st round picks, John Elway, Terry Bradshaw, Peyton Manning, Steve Young(supplemental draft), Otto Graham, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning and Troy Aikman. Those represent 16 Super Bowl wins and 3 NFL Championships. If you throw in guys like Joe Namath, Phil Simms, Joe Flacco, Jim Plunkett, Len Dawson, Doug Williams, Bob Griese and Jim McMahon, thats 26 Super Bowl wins. Half. If you add Rodgers in there because he was a 1st rounder, thats 27. The other 25 have come from non-high first rounders. 9 of those wins are Brady/Montana. The 1st round QBs represent the most multiple SB winners. Elway, Bradshaw, Manning, Aikman, Manning, Roethlisberger, Griese and Plunkett have all won multiple times. Only Brady, Montana, Staubach and Starr have won multiples. Also, the 1st round Qbs have more Super Bowl MVPs than the non 1st rounders. And again, the majority of the non SB MVPs come from Brady/Montana. 

 

To me, it looks like picking a QB who wins multiple SBs is much more likely to happen picking one in the top of the 1st round. Picking HoF QBs? That looks like that can happen in any round. And yea you could pick a QB past the 1st round that wins a SB.

 

Can a 1st round QB bust? Sure can but you know what? So can a players selected at 12, 22 and 53. I'm sure you don't have to look at past Bills drafts to know that.

[Thurman#1]

19 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Yes,  what I've seen agrees with that. I don't follow the college game that closely, so I don't have any sleepers myself.   I wonder a little, if this years hype is a little bit of a new cottage industry for sports reporters and maybe there isn't as much quality there as is being said. Is there a top 2 or 3 or 6?  ( https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/11/best-quarterback-nfl-draft-darnold-rosen-allen-mayfield-themmqb-newsletter      ) 

 

 

There is absolutely no reason to think so.

 

Generally the cycle goes like this ... every year before the draft next year's QBs are better than this year's because this year's have been looked over with a fine-toothed comb for flaws and next year's haven't. The next year the same guys who looked so great next year have now had their final year and been gone over relentlessly. The crop that looked so good last year now doesn't look as good as next year's group.

 

Rinse and repeat.

 

So when a group goes through the pre-draft process and still looks like a good group - as this year's does - it means something. Equally, when a group that hasn't yet been scrutinized within an inch of their life looks bad, as next year's appears to, again, it probably means something.

 

You're showing signs of a mental habit that will lead you the wrong way, every time. It's called confirmation bias. You suddenly notice that data that supports your opinion all looks brilliant and convincing and data that casts suspicion on your way of thought looks questionable. Go long enough this way, and you begin to ignore the stuff you don't like and believe without reservation the stuff that backs you up. It' a very human flaw in our thinking and something we all have to fight. When you say you wonder if this is a new cottage industry, the thing that disagrees with you this year, you're showing confirmation bias. All of us need to stay as neutral as possible if we want to get closer to truth.

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2018 by Thurman#1

[maryland-bills-fan]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

There is absolutely no reason to think so.

 

Generally the cycle goes like this ... every year before the draft next year's QBs are better than this year's because this year's have been looked over with a fine-toothed comb for flaws and next year's haven't. The next year the same guys who looked so great next year have now had their final year and been gone over relentlessly. The crop that looked so good last year now doesn't look as good as next year's group.

 

Rinse and repeat.

 

So when a group goes through the pre-draft process and still looks like a good group - as this year's does - it means something. Equally, when a group that hasn't yet been scrutinized within an inch of their life looks bad, as next year's appears to, again, it probably means something.

 

You're showing signs of a mental habit that will lead you the wrong way, every time. It's called confirmation bias. You suddenly notice that data that supports your opinion all looks brilliant and convincing and data that casts suspicion on your way of thought looks questionable. Go long enough this way, and you begin to ignore the stuff you don't like and believe without reservation the stuff that backs you up. It' a very human flaw in our thinking and something we all have to fight. When you say you wonder if this is a new cottage industry, the thing that disagrees with you this year, you're showing confirmation bias. All of us need to stay as neutral as possible if we want to get closer to truth.

Thanks Dad.                     : )

[Thurman#1]

Just now, maryland-bills-fan said:

Thanks Dad.                     : )

 

 

No prob, son.  Heh heh.

 

In any case, QBs aside, I'd love to see them start trading back and getting higher and better picks in the next year's draft. I'd love to see them start a regular treadmill that way. It's smart strategy, and if they do have any picks left after the likely tradeup (which they should absolutely do even if it costs them a ton, if they think they can get a guy who will be a franchise QB) I'd love to see them start to move that way.

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

"........First, it was Eric Wood retiring. Now Richie Incognito.  Seven free agents have left for other teams, including starting middle linebacker Preston Brown, with no apparent successor in his place yet on the roster.  There are certainly question marks hanging over Zay Jones’ head after his bizarre incident in Los Angeles. ......."     So run in the other direction???   How about a plan where we build a team and then bring in a good QB?  Why not trade a high 2nd from this year for a 1st for next year and trade a low 1st from this year for a high first for next year.    Invest the results from those into the next years draft (supposed to have some really good QB's) and get the guy then.  In the meantime put draft capital into long-lived meat-and-potatoe linemen and linebackers and improve the quality of tools

Does one of the three give you success?   What if you do the first but can't do anything (5% success) on the other two?  What does that give you.  I like rainbows and pixey dust too, but you can't do all three at the same time starting where we are at.

Remind me how you trade a low 1st this year for a high next year? What happens if that team is suddenly .500 or a wildcard? 

 

You go go get your qb when you can. The only way you don’t trade up this year is if you don’t like the prospects available 

[maryland-bills-fan]

33 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

Remind me how you trade a low 1st this year for a high next year? What happens if that team is suddenly .500 or a wildcard? 

 

You go go get your qb when you can. The only way you don’t trade up this year is if you don’t like the prospects available 

Then you didn't gain that much.

 

What you can do is "invest" one of our second round picks to get an extra 1st round pick for next year and have the ammo to move up for a QB next year.

Example:  (for no good reason) use Arizona who picks at #15 this year.  Let's work out what happens if they improve by 5 spots or regress by 5 spots next year.

 

We trade our 2018 #53, worth 340 points for their 2019 pick at either #10 or #20.

 

<<they fall to #20>>>>>   #20 is worth 850 points,  we gain 510 points.  We either use the #20, or gain the equivalent of an extra 7th pick in the second round compared to our original #53.  (that means, we we could trade these points for picks we wind up with the #53 AND the #39 picks)

 

<they rise to #10>>>>>   #10 is worth 1300 points,  we gain 960 points.  We either use the #10 or gain the equivalent of the 17th pick in the first round compared to our original #53.     ( (that means, we we could trade these points for picks we wind up with the #53 AND the #17 picks)

 

In either case, we have some ammo to use if we want to move up, or we gain the equivalent of another higher pick in the 2019 draft. It is a way to invest our extra draft picks from this year in a QB for next year. (or the year after)

 

 

That is the sort of stuff the Bellicheck does every year and uses it to add an extra player or two every year.   They are always a top pick to get into the SuperBowl, so don't discount how this helps them.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2018 by maryland-bills-fan

[SouthNYfan]

8 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Get your quarterback

Protect your quarterback

Get to the quarterback

 

In that order.

Spending all the draft capital on OLine and passing on a QB is the equivalent of spending all your money building a moat, 10' brick wall and a 15' chain link and barbed wire fence, then installing a top of the line security system around a single wide beat up 1970's trailer with a leaky roof and no heat.

[maryland-bills-fan]

7 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

In that order.

Spending all the draft capital on OLine and passing on a QB is the equivalent of spending all your money building a moat, 10' brick wall and a 15' chain link and barbed wire fence, then installing a top of the line security system around a single wide beat up 1970's trailer with a leaky roof and no heat.

.....and spending everything on the QB and nothing on the o-line is like staking a goat out overnight next to the thicket where the hungry tiger lives.

[US Egg]

Only opinion that matters regarding the Bills is Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott.

 

There's far too many jabber jaws, who never played sports at a serious level, cashing in off the coat tails of pro sports.

[Wsam4031]

7 hours ago, JOSH HUFF said:

Frist Round BUST QBs in the top 15 picks since 2000:

 

2002:  drafted 1. David Carr, Fresno State, Texans drafted 3. Joey Harrington, Oregon, Lions

2003: drafted 7. Byron Leftwich, Marshall, Jaguars

2006: drafted 3. Vince Young, Texas, Titans drafted 10. Matt Leinart, USC, Cardinals drafted11. Jay Cutler, Vanderbilt, Broncos(had a few good years) 

2007: drafted 1. JaMarcus Russell, LSU, Raiders

2009: drafted 5. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets

2011: drafted 8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans drafted 10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars drafted 12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings

2012: drafted 2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins drafted 8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins (couple decent years)

2014: drafted 3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars  (not that good)

Just because you pick a QB at #1 overall does not mean your getting an amazing QB.  Best QB's of all time in my opinion Brady & Montana and they were not first round draft picks. Favre was not a first round pick. Rodgers & Brees were mid to late first rounders.  Why toss all your picks at 1 player who could be a bust!  The best QB could be Falk or Mason who knows.  But saying we got a franchise guy because we picked a QB at number 1 or 2 overall, come on!!  How did JaMarcus Russel, Robert Griffen, & David Carr turn out?  Do you feel any of these guys are the next Peyton Manning?  If so, tell me why.  

 

 

Look at all the other players that busted being taken that high. ill bet the list of non qbs that busted in the top 15 since 2000 is bigger than that list . Its easier to get any position in football other than a QB. The higher a QB is taken the higher percentage of him being good is

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

7 hours ago, Rico said:

Definitely stick to the plan and move up for a QB, absolutely no doubt about that.

 

That being said, especially now that Ritchie’s gone, I would look hard at dumping Castillo and throwing big $ at an OL coach who can make the most out of scrubs.

An original idea! Unusual on here and I like it.

 

Get the QB!!!

[Thurman#1]

8 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

.....and spending everything on the QB and nothing on the o-line is like staking a goat out overnight next to the thicket where the hungry tiger lives.

 

 

That's wild overstatement. 

 

Yes, they need to build up the o-line. But nobody is going to be left dead here.

 

But yeah, we should do our best to protect McCarron as much as we reasonably can after we make that trade up.

[maryland-bills-fan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdosUw3Z5XM

 Ouch