QBASE says Josh Allen likely to suck

[racketmaster]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is definitely not true. He throws a lot of interceptable balls, he panics under pressure, he makes bad decisions and bad throws when forced to move beyond his first read, he has very poor ball placement and touch at every level of the field, he attempts throws that he has no business making... Literally he checks 2 boxes - strong arm and prototypical size. Every other trait is a long-term project.

I saw a tremendously talented qb playing in a pro style system with inferior talent around him. And that did lead him trying to do too much at times. Every one of the qb prospects has issues but this does not mean he cannot be a top NFL passer. Favre made a lot of bad decisions and needed to be reigned in early in his career. But he had elite arm talent and developed into a HOF passer. 

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I was talking about college QBs.

 

EJ Manuel completed 68% of his throws his Senior year, and he's one of the most inaccurate QBs I've ever seen in the NFL. 

 

Got it.  

 

But, without really knowing, I'd say that in the college the opposite of what I said is true.   In college you can have a high completion rate for a season or more and be inaccurate, but it's quite unlikely that an accurate college passer will have a low completion percentage.   Maybe Stafford did, but by and large it's pretty easy to throw in college (relative to the pros), and accurate college passers should almost always have high completion percentages.  

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is definitely not true. He throws a lot of interceptable balls, he panics under pressure, he makes bad decisions and bad throws when forced to move beyond his first read, he has very poor ball placement and touch at every level of the field, he attempts throws that he has no business making... Literally he checks 2 boxes - strong arm and prototypical size. Every other trait is a long-term project.

So you wouldn't trade up for Allen, but it sounds like you'd love him at 12!  

[racketmaster]

And I think Allen checks more than 2 boxes:

Tall

weight/frame

hand size

Elite arm strength 

ability to throw accurately on the run

durable

Solid character and work ethic

has taken snaps from under center

intelligent 37 wonderlic 

Mobile, especially for his size

[prissythecat]

23 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I was talking about college QBs.

 

EJ Manuel completed 68% of his throws his Senior year, and he's one of the most inaccurate QBs I've ever seen in the NFL. 

 

 

 

I think its a bit much to say that completion stats are completely meaningless.   EJ like a number of college QBs benefited from huge talent differential between his team and opponent so was completing a lot of passes to wide open receivers?   Despite the gaudy college completion rate though,  scouts said he was not accurate.      Scouts are saying that Allen is inaccurate as well.  

[jrober38]

10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Got it.  

 

But, without really knowing, I'd say that in the college the opposite of what I said is true.   In college you can have a high completion rate for a season or more and be inaccurate, but it's quite unlikely that an accurate college passer will have a low completion percentage.   Maybe Stafford did, but by and large it's pretty easy to throw in college (relative to the pros), and accurate college passers should almost always have high completion percentages.  

 

Agreed.

 

A high completion percentage doesn't mean a QB is accurate, but a low completion percentage generally means they're inaccurate. 

 

People referencing QBs who played in the early to mid 80s clearly don't understand how much the college game has changed since then. 

[Jay_Fixit]

1 hour ago, TheElectricCompany said:

Every year, players go way higher than they should, and other players slide for no rational reason. 

Expecting every team to work the ESPN/NFL big board top to bottom is foolish.

 

I’m not sure what this has to do with what I said. 

 

Allen isn’t accurate. And improving accuracy has proven to be quite difficult for most QB’s that were innacurate in college. It almost never happens.

 

Allen needs to start from the ground up with his mechanics and I’m not sure that’s able to happen.

 

This doesn’t have to be difficult.

[707BillsFan]

Listening to some SiriusXM show yesterday afternoon (I believe Left Coast Live on Mad Dog). They were talking about the top 5 QB's in the draft. Nearly every Mock has these guys being drafted in the top six picks. They were saying all these guys have flaws and none of them are good enough to go that high. They questioned if this was just hype on the part of the media, agents, whoever to get their players talked about. There are several players that are better and deserve to be drafted ahead of the QB's and they believe that will happen. With that said, they said Allen would probably slide to 12 (Bills), Mayfield to 15. 

 

I believe this to be true. I think this is all a smoke screen. I don't think the QB's will go as high as predicted. There will be a couple-three that drop quite a bit. So do the Bills still move up if this actually happens? I'm sure they'll play it buy ear on draft day. No trades before draft day.  None of these QB's is perfect. I've said all along they all have warts. No one can say for certain any of these QB's will be a sure thing. So if the Bills do get Allen...I wouldn't be disappointed, I'll respect the process and hope it all pans out. 

[Jay_Fixit]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

Completion percentage has little to do with accuracy. 

Tebow was a 66.4% passer in college.

 

One of the least accurate QB’s in the history of the NFL.

 

 

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

So you wouldn't trade up for Allen, but it sounds like you'd love him at 12!  

 

You know what I'd do with a guy like Allen, I'd take him in the 2nd round and give him the Aaron Rodgers treatment. Three years on the bench, give him some spot play here and there when games are out of reach. Every day of that 3 years he's be working with a personal coach whose job is to teach him new muscle memory. I think that's the only way you could hope to make it work. And truthfully that MIGHT work, I don't know because NFL teams don't try that very often. It's usually one year on the bench and then you're thrown to the wolves. Usually what happens there is the guy will flash for a few games but eventually revert to his old mechanics.

 

If only NFL teams would actually try to innovate we could see more guys like Allen get a real shot to improve. But more likely than not he'll be pushed onto the field early. Look at what the Chiefs are doing with Pat Mahomes. He was very similar to Allen coming out of Texas Tech, needs some time to develop NFL traits. So what do they Do? Give him exactly one year then trade away Alex Smith coming off the best season of his career. Now Mahomes is forced to start with nothing but one year of NFL training. Why has Rodgers been the only QB given ample time to develop? It makes no sense to me.

[prissythecat]

1 minute ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Tebow was a 66.4% passer in college.

 

One of the least accurate QB’s in the history of the NFL.

 

 

 

Again what kind of passes did Tebow have to throw?   Did he have to thread passes into tight windows or was he throwing to wide open guys.

[Ayjent]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

What I've been saying for a while and that is I personally think Mayfield is the best QB in the draft.

To me as well.  They only thing that is questionable is his height, but not a killer issue.  Just depends on whether he can pass from a pro pocket without visibility issues and batted passes.  Still better prospect than the other guys IMO.

[HappyDays]

46 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

And I think Allen checks more than 2 boxes:

Tall

weight/frame

hand size

Elite arm strength 

ability to throw accurately on the run

durable

Solid character and work ethic

has taken snaps from under center

intelligent 37 wonderlic 

Mobile, especially for his size

 

Tall, weight, hand size, and durable are 1 trait - protypical size. Character and work ethic describes every failed Bills QB from this millennium; it isn't enough in the NFL. Wonderlic scores don't correlate with success at all. According to that NDT scouting report Josh Allen had worse ball placement when on the run than every QB except Josh Rosen and Mason Rudolph (similarly his ball placement when outside the pocket was worse than every QB except Mike White).

 

So we're left with what I said - protypical size and elite arm strength. Everything else is a major work in progress.

[Ayjent]

1 hour ago, prissythecat said:

 

 

I think its a bit much to say that completion stats are completely meaningless.   EJ like a number of college QBs benefited from huge talent differential between his team and opponent so was completing a lot of passes to wide open receivers?   Despite the gaudy college completion rate though,  scouts said he was not accurate.      Scouts are saying that Allen is inaccurate as well.  

If you watched EJ Manuel in college you knew he wasn't a great passer and it was a very close to pro system he played in.  He often made wide open guys have to adjust to poorly thrown balls, and actually left a lot of plays on the field because of his inconsistent passing and inaccuracy.  He could string together some plays, but he would really struggle at other times.  He never really passed with any rhythm, and he was really a disappointment to many Noles fans that saw his problems frequently crop up in the biggest games.

 

I can remember my utter disbelief when he was drafted in the first round.  People I know who are FSU Grads and alumni were all calling me up and laughing their asses off at how dumb that pick was.   That was a peach of a pick - Nix/Whaley combo didn't know what a good QB prospect looked like.  It took Rex freaking Ryan to actually help out to get a decent guy on the roster.

Edited April 3, 2018 by Ayjent

[racketmaster]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Tall, weight, hand size, and durable are 1 trait - protypical size. Character and work ethic describes every failed Bills QB from this millennium; it isn't enough in the NFL. Wonderlic scores don't correlate with success at all. According to that NDT scouting report Josh Allen had worse ball placement when on the run than every QB except Josh Rosen and Mason Rudolph (similarly his ball placement when outside the pocket was worse than every QB except Mike White).

 

So we're left with what I said - protypical size and elite arm strength. Everything else is a major work in progress.

Lumping size together is convenient for your argument. It’s like saying a qb is a good thrower without breaking it down to accuracy, arm strength, touch etc. 

[RyanC883]

3 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

Let's put things into perspective...

 

		Boise State Passing
Player	School	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Josh Allen	Wyoming	12	27	44.4	131	4.9	2.3	1	2	82.6

 

 

		Hawaii
		Passing
Player	School	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Josh Allen	Wyoming	9	19	47.4	92	4.8	5.9	1	0	105.4

 

 

 

		Colorado State
		Passing
Player	School	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Josh Allen	Wyoming	10	20	50.0	138	6.9	6.9	0	0	108.0

 

 

 

 

		Ohio State Passing
Player	School	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	27	35	77.1	386	11.0	12.7	3	0	198.1

 

		TCU Passing
Player	School	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	15	23	65.2	243	10.6	14.0	4	0	211.4

 

		Georgia Passing
Player	School	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	23	35	65.7	287	8.2	8.1	2	1	147.7

 

I mean, what are we really talking about??

 

 

hopefully the Browns taking Allen at 1!  That or a giant smoke screen from Beane.  But I hate the mocks that have Allen going to us.  So lazy, "he has an arm for the weather."  

[jrober38]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Tall, weight, hand size, and durable are 1 trait - protypical size. Character and work ethic describes every failed Bills QB from this millennium; it isn't enough in the NFL. Wonderlic scores don't correlate with success at all. According to that NDT scouting report Josh Allen had worse ball placement when on the run than every QB except Josh Rosen and Mason Rudolph (similarly his ball placement when outside the pocket was worse than every QB except Mike White).

 

So we're left with what I said - protypical size and elite arm strength. Everything else is a major work in progress.

 

Exactly.

 

His accuracy is not good enough for him to step foot on an NFL field yet. His decision making would result in a train wreck if he's asked to play this year. 

 

Josh Allen has elite measurables. On the other hand, his abilities as a football player in live game situations rank him as one of the worst QBs in this draft class. 

[Big Blitz]

My own personal preference/rankings as of 4/3/18:

 

Mayfield 

Darnold 

Rosen 

Allen

Jackson

[Ayjent]

14 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Exactly.

 

His accuracy is not good enough for him to step foot on an NFL field yet. His decision making would result in a train wreck if he's asked to play this year. 

 

Josh Allen has elite measurables. On the other hand, his abilities as a football player in live game situations rank him as one of the worst QBs in this draft class. 

NFL and NBA personnel people constantly make the mistake of drafting players way too high based on physical traits without much evidence of actual elite ability to play the respective sport at consistently high level.  It's really weird because if you look at what everyone is saying at the end of the college football season and what they say now, it is like people spend several months talking themselves into players way higher than they should be.  It happens every year.  Josh Allen reminds me of the ascent of Blaine Gabbert, where these football execs get really juiced up about these workouts and combine measurements and overlook the red flags about actual ability to be excellent playing the game.

[Tyrod's friend]

2 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

...

Accuracy can be refined, but it can't be retaught from scratch, which is what Allen needs to have happen. 

This is so true it's ridiculous. It needs to be put in super large, 72 font print and then stapled on to the forehead of every talent evaluator in the Draft Room.

Most QBs spend their entire lifetimes within a 1.5% swing of their initial completion percentage. Rare exception I'm sure, but outside of players that change a system (Montana, Brees) players stay the same. 

 

[racketmaster]

11 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

This is so true it's ridiculous. It needs to be put in super large, 72 font print and then stapled on to the forehead of every talent evaluator in the Draft Room.

Most QBs spend their entire lifetimes within a 1.5% swing of their initial completion percentage. Rare exception I'm sure, but outside of players that change a system (Montana, Brees) players stay the same. 

 

I’m not so sure this is true. Two other players that come to mind are Alex Smith and Matt Stafford. Smith was a mid 50’s% passer his first 4 years and has been a mid 60’s% passer since. The same goes for Stanford who went from about a 60% passer his first 6 years to a 65% passer the past 3 years. Those are the first two players I looked at so I am very confident there are many more examples. 

Edited April 3, 2018 by racketmaster