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Sammy Watkins - I was wrong........


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1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

$16,000,00/yr....   You pegged him at what $8,000,000.  

 

Market value was $16,000,000.  Again the point of the thread was a big f u to those saying $10,000,000 was preposterous.

 

Go back to your "Draft Board" and planning for 2025.

wha?  

 

i was thinking around the 10 mill mark, so yes...i was wrong.  now, how does that validate you?  what does sammy getting 16 mill a year to you?  to me, it's just that kc overpaid based on potential.  this move could absolutely blow up in their faces.  the truth of the matter is that sammy just hasn't shown that he's in any way elite, and his production has been a disappointment considering what he's capable of.  honestly...if sammy looks average again this year, what will your excuse be?

 

the love you have for sammy is just strange.  he's on his third team.  move on, and be happy the bills were able to get a pick for him.

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1 hour ago, Da webster guy said:

im not so sure it was the right thing.   We finally had our first playoff game and only needed 11 points Total to win, and our elite receiver who had developed great chemistry with Tyrod was gone to LA for a guy who played half the season on defense.  Maybe we get a great player with the Rams pick, and maybe we don't, but either way the fact is we missed having a game changing WR this season, and it very well may have cost us a playoff win. 

 

We had a game changing receiver, huge guy named Benjamin who made a living catching jump balls in the endzone for touchdowns in Carolina. Our pee wee QB threw it at his knees with the game very much winnable.

 

And a contract for Sammy means nothing. Pay doesn't determine who the best is, the numbers do. And he isn't the best. He's not even top 10.

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1 minute ago, Luka said:

 

We had a game changing receiver, huge guy named Benjamin who made a living catching jump balls in the endzone for touchdowns in Carolina. Our pee wee QB threw it at his knees with the game very much winnable.

 

And a contract for Sammy means nothing. Pay doesn't determine who the best is, the numbers do. And he isn't the best. He's not even top 10.

this is just it.  

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9 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

$16,000,00/yr....   You pegged him at what $8,000,000.  

 

Market value was $16,000,000.  Again the point of the thread was a big f u to those saying $10,000,000 was preposterous.

 

Go back to your "Draft Board" and planning for 2025.

 

Why werent the Rams, the team that traded for him want to give him $16,000,000 a year?

Why did they elect not to tag him?

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8 minutes ago, teef said:

this is just it.  

 

It's strange he doesn't see the fallacy he's created. Jamarcus Russell should still be in the league and winning Super Bowls if pay determines greatness.

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Again missing the point.  The Bills gave away Watkins and you are hoping that a second round pick and injured rental was fair value.  They too could have paid him.

 

Yes I missed Watkins as a Bill last year and hated the putrid offence.

2 minutes ago, Luka said:

 

It's strange he doesn't see the fallacy he's created. Jamarcus Russell should still be in the league and winning Super Bowls if pay determines greatness.

That was the rookie contract and probably the reason the rules were changed.

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5 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Again missing the point.  The Bills gave away Watkins and you are hoping that a second round pick and injured rental was fair value.  They too could have paid him.

 

Yes I missed Watkins as a Bill last year and hated the putrid offence.

That was the rookie contract and probably the reason the rules were changed.

 

I guess Matt Stafford and Derek Carr are the two best QB’s in the league then.  Since they are the highest paid and not on a rookie contract pre-rookie cap days.

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18 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Again missing the point.  The Bills gave away Watkins and you are hoping that a second round pick and injured rental was fair value.  They too could have paid him.

 

Yes I missed Watkins as a Bill last year and hated the putrid offence.

That was the rookie contract and probably the reason the rules were changed.

No one is missing the point. You just have a lousy one. 

 

The bills could have paid sammy. So could the rams. Even after giving up a second for him, they still didn’t.  Two teams Sammy has been involved with haven’t thought he was worth the money. If he works out in kc, great. His salary in no way makes him elite. I don’t know why you can’t understand that. 

13 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I guess Matt Stafford and Derek Carr are the two best QB’s in the league then.  Since they are the highest paid and not on a rookie contract pre-rookie cap days.

You know what debating 72 is like. He’s just so in love with Sammy. 

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4 minutes ago, teef said:

No one is missing the point. You just have a lousy one. 

 

The bills could have paid sammy. So could the rams. Even after giving up a second for him, they still didn’t.  Two teams Sammy has been involved with haven’t thought he was worth the money. If he works out in kc, great. His salary in no way makes him elite. I don’t know why you can’t understand that. 

You know what debating 72 is like. He’s just so in love with Sammy. 

 

Do you think he grew out his hair to have dreads like Sammy?

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38 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Again missing the point.  The Bills gave away Watkins and you are hoping that a second round pick and injured rental was fair value.  They too could have paid him.

 

Yes I missed Watkins as a Bill last year and hated the putrid offence.

That was the rookie contract and probably the reason the rules were changed.

 

A 2nd round pick that will most likely be used to move up and select a QB 3rd overall. Hmmm, Sammy Bustkins? Or Top tier rookie QB, which the Bills haven't had since Kelly? Bye Sammy.

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4 hours ago, NewEra said:

Elite talent gets paid.  His production hasn’t been elite, but people have eyes.  Sammy, Tyreek and Kelce.  Wow.  Setting up Maholmes to succeed

Just to think this could of been half our offense now were trading for the bust of all bust Josh Allen.  I hope not. 

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6 hours ago, teef said:

i understand this idea, but i just feel it's wishful thinking.  i still don't think sammy has show to be elite in any way.  he has the talent to be, but until his play backs that up, i just don't buy it.  he hasn't shown to be a guy to take over games, and i especially don't think he'd be that guy with taylor throwing to him.  that jax defense had this offense totally stifled.  i don't think having sammy here would have put them over the top at all.  i just remembered taylor being shut down too often.  the pick has value no matter who we take.

 

again, i think getting anything for sammy was a good deal.  i hope he does well in kc.

yes looking at it now, we get to draft a guy who will be here for at least 4 years at a reasonable salary and will likely be a starter considering its 2nd round. 

 

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15 hours ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

Well then KC better target him more than 70 times

 

 

You do realize that my quote was he better catch more than 100 per season for the money KC is paying him to be worth it...

 

I agree, I certainly think they will target him more than the Rams did. 

 

 

 

I understand what you are saying. How many targets do you think he will need to get to 100 catches per season and justify his contract? Given that offense and the other weapons on the team and their need for touches as well, what type of production would justify his contract should he not get to 100 catches or enough targets to realistically get to 100 catches?

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7 minutes ago, P51 said:

 

I agree, I certainly think they will target him more than the Rams did. 

 

 

 

I understand what you are saying. How many targets do you think he will need to get to 100 catches per season and justify his contract? Given that offense and the other weapons on the team and their need for touches as well, what type of production would justify his contract should he not get to 100 catches or enough targets to realistically get to 100 catches?

 

 

In KC's situation they need to either win the Superbowl or at least make it there, they seem to be making a push for it with this FA... and/or give Sammy about 125 - 140 targets so he can earn that contract...

 

 

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15 hours ago, Ayjent said:

Dude isn't dependable enough nor does he give enough effort on 50/50 balls or balls that require some adjustment and aggression to go get.  Physically talented guy - no doubt about it, but physical talent isn't all you need.  Good for Watkins for getting paid - I think it is great that these guys get paid well when they do - considering how much money is out there to have in the NFL.  It's only right that the ones putting themselves in harm's way get paid well, but if we are talking about a guy that you want your team to spend a good deal of its limited resources on, then Watkins isn't exactly they guy I'd be excited about.

 

I've seen enough of him to know he isn't an elite NFL reciever - he's okay, but Robert Woods is a better all around receiver that gives way more effort and is far more reliable as a target.  So the Rams saw that too and that is why Sammy is now on KC's roster.

 

I respectfully disagree with some of what you have to say here, but respect your opinion and agree to a certain extent with some of it. 

 

There certainly are plays where it can be debated if he has given enough effort, there are also plays where it can not be debated, from what Ive seen I disagree that he is not dependable nor that he does not give enough effort.

 

From what Ive seen on this board most people cherry pick one or two and use that as an absolute. Ive seen plenty of Watkins from the BIlls and Rams to know that those 50/50 balls are generally forced into coverage or bad throws that few humans can adjust and make the catch, but he does better than he is given credit for, if I remember right his contested catch rate was 60% last year, so he actually wins more 50/50 balls than he does not, and his contested catch rate for his QB's, QBR was in the top 10 for Goff. If the NextGen and other Analytics sights are wrong, so are my eyes.  Can he do a better job of getting seperation? IMO Yes, there are routes (usually short to intermediate) where his stem is poor and he relies on his athleticism too much, but he's 24 and shown drastic improvement since being drafted. He's been and still is however one of the best vertical threats in the league. He's still 24 and gone through a foot surgery plenty needed a second surgery for and still gone on to All NBA and All NFL careers.

 

Throughout his career there are more plays where he was dependable, in the right spot and NFL "open", College "open" and not looked at or thrown too where he does not need to win a 50/50 ball, but actual game film is ignored in this regard. I agree he is physically talented and that is not enough in the NFL, but besides winning 60% of his 50/50 balls and helping his QB out among the leagues best in contested situations, what else do you want him to do? What would get you excited?

 

Watkins might not be an elite receiver, I think he is, but can see why yourself and others think he is not, he might become one in time, he might not in the eyes of those who do and do not believe so. Okay? that to me is downplaying his skill set and ability. 

 

Comparing him and Robert Woods is like comparing Jerome Bettis to Danny Woodhead, they are as polar opposite WR's as there is. Watkins is true #1 vertical WR, while Woods is a capable #2,  functional #1 if needed, who runs clean routes is quicker than fast and an ideal slot receiver who gives 100% effort, run blocks and apparently is f^#*ing crazy.  He also does not draw the defenses #1 CB or double coverage. He fits what McVay wants like a glove from a non-#1 WR perspective especially as much as he wants to spread the ball around.  I also believe Woods contested catch rate is less than 50%. 

 

The Rams saw that and gave Woods a market contract, they saw Watkins (who was traded for a 2nd round pick and a starting CB) was legit downfield threat and #1 WR and is on KC because the Rams lack foresight, and not having the money to retain him. They planned for this years salary cap like my cousin plans on his next fix. They wanted Watkins back, stated so, but did not use any long term thought or cap management into making it happen. If they had the cap room they would have made every to bring Watkins back (at $16M, IDK) I beleive. They have major issues moving forward cap wise, and lots of players and tough choices to deal with.

 

Watkins advanced stats also were better than Woods in everything I have seen. 

1 hour ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

In KC's situation they need to either win the Superbowl or at least make it there, they seem to be making a push for it with this FA... and/or give Sammy about 125 - 140 targets so he can earn that contract...

 

 

 

Lofty expectations for KC, I think they are taking care of the offensive side of the ball to make that happen though myself. 

 

As for Sammy, I think that would be about right, 8 -10 targets a game. IMO 10 targets a game should get you about 100 receptions for Sammy and both Watkins skill and the Chiefs contract for him would be justified and realistic. 8 targets would make it tough, but his abiltiy to stretch the field and Mahommes arm could make it work. 

 

Perspective/Reference: Antonio Brown had 163 targets last year and 101 receptions. 1500 yds and 9 TDs.

 

I think with that kind of targeting Watkins has similar production. 

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