Davealan74 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 After looking at this article I see names of guys I was rooting for the bills to draft. Its amazing how many of these guys flamed out. It even more amazing how many first rounders flame out. The reason I bring this up is there are potentially 5 guys in this draft that could make it big. If you look though history it seems the only consistence is the first quarterback taken off the board usually pans out. After that it seems to be a crap shoot. So should we sell off multiple picks for for 1 crap shoot? I really don't think there are any ways to tell which of these guys are going to be a franchise QB. After looking at this article do you still feel the same about moving up in the draft? http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000810915/article/ranking-this-millenniums-17-quarterback-draft-classes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebrastripes Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) I strongly believe this class is the most like 2004 where there were multiple guys that panned out. So yes I would still make a trade up to get 1 of the top guys. Edited March 11, 2018 by Zebrastripes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I was a fan of Connor Cook. Is he a flame out yet? I feel like he just hasn't had his chance to shine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davealan74 Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 I remember being upset when the jets got Bryce Petty. Now I just laugh at the jets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luka Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Tebow didn't flame out, he was forced out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The unpredictability - and generally low success rate - of drafted NFL QBs is why I'm not opposed to the Nick Foles option. We know that Foles can do well in the right system surrounded by the right cast. We don't know anything about this current crop of college signal callers. Even some of the guys the experts said were can't-miss in the past ended up missing. My other thought is that the sensible thing to do is keep drafting QBs until you find one - every year or every other year. But mortgaging the farm to trade up on a speculative hope scares me. Imaging giving up two 1s and a 2, let's say, to move up and get a guy who doesn't pan out. Draft history says that's what would probably happen. I'd rather use one of our first round picks this year to draft a guy. If we miss, try again next year. Instead of betting the farm on one guy by using three picks, I'd use one pick for one guy - but I'd do it every year until we got a hit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 14 minutes ago, lxxenigmaxxl said: After looking at this article I see names of guys I was rooting for the bills to draft. Its amazing how many of these guys flamed out. It even more amazing how many first rounders flame out. The reason I bring this up is there are potentially 5 guys in this draft that could make it big. If you look though history it seems the only consistence is the first quarterback taken off the board usually pans out. After that it seems to be a crap shoot. So should we sell off multiple picks for for 1 crap shoot? I really don't think there are any ways to tell which of these guys are going to be a franchise QB. After looking at this article do you still feel the same about moving up in the draft? http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000810915/article/ranking-this-millenniums-17-quarterback-draft-classes Makes the point rather effectively that a class with 3 long-term starters drafted in the 1st round is a rare exception, doesn't he? The far more common outcome is 0 or 1. The author flags for success a number of QB who either did not become long term starters (RGIII, Vince Young, etc), or who took the "scenic route" to that status (eg Alex Smith) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davealan74 Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, kdiggz said: I was a fan of Connor Cook. Is he a flame out yet? I feel like he just hasn't had his chance to shine I don't really know much about him but I don't think he has a chance to prove himself yet. I think a lot of these guys that turn out do to circumstances appose to skill and being in the right place at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yungmack Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) I noticed this was written BEFORE the 2017 season. That said, it is kind of astounding how many QBs were drafted and how very few of them panned out at all. As to genuine stars, boy, are they rare. Edited March 11, 2018 by yungmack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dadonkadonk Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Shhh. Most on here don't want to hear this kind of talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 31 minutes ago, yungmack said: I noticed this was written BEFORE the 2017 season. That said, it is kind of astounding how many QBs were drafted and how very few of them panned out at all. As to genuine stars, boy, are they rare. The 2017 season doesn't really change much. Currently at best you have 1 QB who showed something (Watson) but who got hurt. The rest didn't show much or enough to say anything one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 All I hear is that we shouldn’t hire the OP to scout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davealan74 Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, NoSaint said: All I hear is that we shouldn’t hire the OP to scout Your not quite getting what I'm saying hear. If you look back in history a lot of these guys were suppose to be sure things. Great arms, athletic, good foot work, accurate, are a few of the words used by the media, scouts and analysis over the last 17 years and most of these guys haven't panned out. There is no real good way to find out which guy is going to breakout or bust if you look back the last 17 years. It's really is a crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 13 minutes ago, lxxenigmaxxl said: Your not quite getting what I'm saying hear. If you look back in history a lot of these guys were suppose to be sure things. Great arms, athletic, good foot work, accurate, are a few of the words used by the media, scouts and analysis over the last 17 years and most of these guys haven't panned out. There is no real good way to find out which guy is going to breakout or bust if you look back the last 17 years. It's really is a crap shoot. I get it. And stand by my joke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Well according to your analysis, we just trade up to pick the first QB off the board and we are golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davealan74 Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, NoSaint said: I get it. And stand by my joke. Edited March 11, 2018 by lxxenigmaxxl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USABuffaloFan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 hours ago, lxxenigmaxxl said: After looking at this article I see names of guys I was rooting for the bills to draft. Its amazing how many of these guys flamed out. It even more amazing how many first rounders flame out. The reason I bring this up is there are potentially 5 guys in this draft that could make it big. If you look though history it seems the only consistence is the first quarterback taken off the board usually pans out. After that it seems to be a crap shoot. So should we sell off multiple picks for for 1 crap shoot? I really don't think there are any ways to tell which of these guys are going to be a franchise QB. After looking at this article do you still feel the same about moving up in the draft? http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000810915/article/ranking-this-millenniums-17-quarterback-draft-classes No you don't, odds are you lose. You wait and grab I guy at your picks or go get a proven guy. If your gonna gamble QB gamble money, it is replaceable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davealan74 Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, USABuffaloFan said: No you don't, odds are you lose. You wait and grab I guy at your picks or go get a proven guy. If your gonna gamble QB gamble money, it is replaceable. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, USABuffaloFan said: No you don't, odds are you lose. You wait and grab I guy at your picks or go get a proven guy. If your gonna gamble QB gamble money, it is replaceable. Why are we better off spending 15m on a qb and drafting two second tier guys instead of signing two vets and trading up for a cheap rookie qb? at least the rookie stands a chance of being the guy. Keenum or McCarron? Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davealan74 Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 (edited) 5 minutes ago, NoSaint said: Why are we better off spending 15m on a qb and drafting two second tier guys instead of signing two vets and trading up for a cheap rookie qb? at least the rookie stands a chance of being the guy. Keenum or McCarron? Meh. Because the odds are against you. When I get the time I'll go and see how many qb over the years that panned out when a team moved up to get them. I guessing it's a extremely short list. Could the impossible happen, yes it could but do you really want to waste all those picks if it doesn't. We are too high on the board to reach that far down. Edited March 11, 2018 by lxxenigmaxxl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts