Pine Barrens Mafia Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 hours ago, Pete said: You have a pretty stacked team with Tyrod battling a free agent QB and Peterman for starting job And you'll still have garbage at QB. Exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 While I think that drafting good players is ultimately the key, there's another side to this coin that, IMO, should be discussed. I know @BADOLBILZ has often pointed out the efficacy of drafting QBs until you get it right, so let's look at that idea quickly. If we go back 10 years, here's who Buffalo would've drafted if they simply drafted the next QB off the board in round 1: 2008 - J. Flacco 2009 - J. Freeman 2010 - T. Tebow 2011 - J. Locker 2012 - B. Weeden 2013 - EJ Manuel 2014 - J. Manziel 2015 - G. Grayson (round 3 since they didn't have a 1st) 2016 - P. Lynch 2017 - D. Kizer What's the point? Sitting where you are and letting the QB come to you is the wrong move, but so too is reaching for the next QB on your board. If you want to get a QB, you need to go after him with purpose, and be prepared to sacrifice picks to get him. If you aren't going to do that, then yes, take BPA where you're slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 33 minutes ago, Westside Madness said: This is literally the opposite of BPA. Then why do most teams have a different BPA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, JaCrispy said: Then why do most teams have a different BPA? Because their staffs evaluated guys differently. It is all based on their grades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 (edited) 11 minutes ago, BillsVet said: Quentin Nelson is by many accounts the best guard prospect to come along in a while. A team with a need at the position isn't taking him at 5 even if he is BPA. This is a nuanced topic and shoe-horning it into a black or white thing is absurd. Indianapolis has an OL issue, but there's no way in heck they take Nelson 3rd overall. This debate of BPA or need has to factor in positional value. It's great to have interior DL, Interior OL, non-pass rushing LBs, safeties, and RB's who are perennial pro bowl players. It's better to have them at the positions which game outcomes more, particularly those in the passing game: QB, WR, perhaps OT, top pass rushers, and CBs who can cover. And those guys are getting drafted, even if a lesser prospect, ahead of the top guard available. Whaley's opinion, very great point he made. Your high draft picks should aim for these types of players. We’ve got a list," said Buffalo Bills general manager Doug Whaley, "of six positions we’re going to pay." The positions: quarterback, left tackle, and a playmaker on offense; a cornerback, a pass rusher, and a playmaker on defense https://www.theringer.com/2016/9/7/16077250/the-nfl-has-an-age-problem-7068825845e4 Edited March 6, 2018 by TheElectricCompany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Because their staffs evaluated guys differently. It is all based on their grades. Exactly my point! Players are graded differently on a variety of things...that’s why I feel BPA is subjective Edited March 6, 2018 by JaCrispy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Because their staffs evaluated guys differently. It is all based on their grades. Strictly guessing but I would say that there are easily a dozen evaluation systems out there among the 32 teams so there definitely is a chance for variability in the final grade on a prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, JaCrispy said: Exactly my point! That’s drafting BPA not a guy that best fits them. Your big board is how you rank the players. Drafting by position or need would be the opposite. 1 minute ago, RochesterRob said: Strictly guessing but I would say that there are easily a dozen evaluation systems out there among the 32 teams so there definitely is a chance for variability in the final grade on a prospect. Oh absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheElectricCompany Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, JaCrispy said: Exactly my point! Players are graded differently on a variety of things...that’s why I feel BPA is subjective It is extremely subjective. That is why you have guys that are "1st round prospects" go in the late 3rd, and "undrafted prospects" going in the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, Pete said: Overreaching for QB's I will never understand. The depth of this draft is front 7 and interior oline. So I would load up on front 7 and interior oline, and contemplate a QB at 21. I would not overpay for moving up. Since 1998, the Bills have overpaid four #1's for Bledsoe, RJ, EJ, and JP instead of drafting BPA and stacking roster with talent. so 1st on JP instead of drafting Steven Jackson or Bob Sanders or waiting until 90th pick and selected Matt Schaub so 1st on EJ instead of drafting Leveon Bell or DeAndre Hopkins a #1 for RJ instead of drafting Takeo Spikes or Randy Moss a #1 for Bledsoe instead of drafting Troy Palamuiu or Anquan Boldin Einstein's definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results That is why you don't overreach for QB, you don't squander draft picks, and you ALWAYS DRAFT BPA! Wrong. QB trumps all..........if the Bills had simply stayed put and drafted the next best QB every year during the drought they'd have picked HOF QB's like Brees and Rodgers and another SB winning QB like Flacco. ANY of those QB's would be more impactful than ALL of those star players you mentioned combined. And to be clear........the Bills have NEVER traded UP to make their first selection of the draft a QB.........in fact, they've never even selected a QB with their originally slotted first pick in round 1. Rojo and Bledsoe were attempted shortcuts........as was JP.........if you liked JP as a franchise QB how could anyone pick Lee Evans in front of him? The EJ pick was just a hedged bet in a bad QB year. And yet.......amazingly......despite fielding ONLY one of their own original first pick round 1 players in the game at Jax.........the most recent one, Tre White.......they managed to win 9 games and make the playoffs in 2017. If you can win 9 games with almost zero help from any of the previous 18 years worth of first rounds.......you should've just kept trying your hand at QB. The mistake they've continually repeated is never being all-in on a QB prospect on draft day. Even Norm Pollom was down to pick Tony Hunter before for either Jim Kelly OR Tony Eason on draft day(which.....upon reflection his recollection became became Dan Marino instead of Eason). The Billsy way is to continue draft guys for your Wall of Fame instead of drafting the guy that can LEAD you to a SB win. Edited March 6, 2018 by BADOLBILZ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 24 minutes ago, joesixpack said: And you'll still have garbage at QB. Exciting. For some it is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: That’s drafting BPA not a guy that best fits them. Your big board is how you rank the players. Drafting by position or need would be the opposite. Oh absolutely I’m not arguing BPA doesn’t exist- I’m saying it’s different for different teams... unless 1 guy is light years ahead of everyone else, there is no “one size fits all” when it comes to BPA imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 25 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: While I think that drafting good players is ultimately the key, there's another side to this coin that, IMO, should be discussed. I know @BADOLBILZ has often pointed out the efficacy of drafting QBs until you get it right, so let's look at that idea quickly. If we go back 10 years, here's who Buffalo would've drafted if they simply drafted the next QB off the board in round 1: 2008 - J. Flacco 2009 - J. Freeman 2010 - T. Tebow 2011 - J. Locker 2012 - B. Weeden 2013 - EJ Manuel 2014 - J. Manziel 2015 - G. Grayson (round 3 since they didn't have a 1st) 2016 - P. Lynch 2017 - D. Kizer What's the point? Sitting where you are and letting the QB come to you is the wrong move, but so too is reaching for the next QB on your board. If you want to get a QB, you need to go after him with purpose, and be prepared to sacrifice picks to get him. If you aren't going to do that, then yes, take BPA where you're slotted. Technically we passed on Watson & Mahomes as well... Also @Badolbilz has the best method on choosing what positions you should target each round.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 hours ago, Pete said: Overreaching for QB's I will never understand. The depth of this draft is front 7 and interior oline. So I would load up on front 7 and interior oline, and contemplate a QB at 21. I would not overpay for moving up. Since 1998, the Bills have overpaid four #1's for Bledsoe, RJ, EJ, and JP instead of drafting BPA and stacking roster with talent. so 1st on JP instead of drafting Steven Jackson or Bob Sanders or waiting until 90th pick and selected Matt Schaub so 1st on EJ instead of drafting Leveon Bell or DeAndre Hopkins a #1 for RJ instead of drafting Takeo Spikes or Randy Moss a #1 for Bledsoe instead of drafting Troy Palamuiu or Anquan Boldin Einstein's definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results That is why you don't overreach for QB, you don't squander draft picks, and you ALWAYS DRAFT BPA! I agree you need to have a system by which you value players and that needs to be the overall compass that guides selection. There has to to be some component of need and system fit applied to that ranking, because for example say you have two corners rated as first round prospects and two consecutive picks like the bills do. It wouldn’t make sense to draft two back to back corners with tre and Vontae Davis on the roster already to boot. Philosophy should also play in. For example, If a highly rated guard falls, but philosophically you think the drop off to another guy you can grab in free agency or a later round isn’t that large, you move to the next guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 always draft to fill holes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, JaCrispy said: I’m not arguing BPA doesn’t exist- I’m saying it’s different for different teams... unless 1 guy is light years ahead of everyone else, there is no “one size fits all” when it comes to BPA imo. Absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 20 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: While I think that drafting good players is ultimately the key, there's another side to this coin that, IMO, should be discussed. I know @BADOLBILZ has often pointed out the efficacy of drafting QBs until you get it right, so let's look at that idea quickly. If we go back 10 years, here's who Buffalo would've drafted if they simply drafted the next QB off the board in round 1: 2008 - J. Flacco 2009 - J. Freeman 2010 - T. Tebow 2011 - J. Locker 2012 - B. Weeden 2013 - EJ Manuel 2014 - J. Manziel 2015 - G. Grayson (round 3 since they didn't have a 1st) 2016 - P. Lynch 2017 - D. Kizer What's the point? Sitting where you are and letting the QB come to you is the wrong move, but so too is reaching for the next QB on your board. If you want to get a QB, you need to go after him with purpose, and be prepared to sacrifice picks to get him. If you aren't going to do that, then yes, take BPA where you're slotted. I agree.......be ALL IN as an organization on getting a QB. The scary thing is that the Bills have been picking BPA in first round for most of that time and they only have Shaq(a non BPA pick) and White under contract to show for their entire 21st century's worth of first round picks..........which is the same amount of first round players they'd have under contract if they just selected those QB's you listed in each of those seasons. If you don't get a QB........you get very uneven performance from year to year..........then your GM/HC gets fired.......then you lose players in FA and to system changes........it's a cycle that the Bills have been caught up in and yet fans still drool over first round LB's etc.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said: I agree.......be ALL IN as an organization on getting a QB. The scary thing is that the Bills have been picking BPA in first round for most of that time and they only have Shaq(a non BPA pick) and White under contract to show for their entire 21st century's worth of first round picks..........which is the same amount of first round players they'd have under contract if they just selected those QB's you listed in each of those seasons. If you don't get a QB........you get very uneven performance from year to year..........then your GM/HC gets fired.......then you lose players in FA and to system changes........it's a cycle that the Bills have been caught up in and yet fans still drool over first round LB's etc.. Finally something we agree on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said: Technically we passed on Watson & Mahomes as well... Also @Badolbilz has the best method on choosing what positions you should target each round.... That's a salient point as well, so yeah, you could put Mahomes as the 2017 guy. 2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: I agree.......be ALL IN as an organization on getting a QB. The scary thing is that the Bills have been picking BPA in first round for most of that time and they only have Shaq(a non BPA pick) and White under contract to show for their entire 21st century's worth of first round picks..........which is the same amount of first round players they'd have under contract if they just selected those QB's you listed in each of those seasons. If you don't get a QB........you get very uneven performance from year to year..........then your GM/HC gets fired.......then you lose players in FA and to system changes........it's a cycle that the Bills have been caught up in and yet fans still drool over first round LB's etc.. Indeed...be bold about it. Take your shot. The best pick they've made in the last 10 years--from an organization-building standpoint--was EJ. They were in position to have their pick of any QB in the draft and they took it (not without trading down first, which wasn't the gutsiest move); they need to show the next step kind in committing to the position moving forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Absolutely Sometimes what I’m thinking doesn’t always translate to my post...I guess I can be a little slow in that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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