pimp on da' net Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Bill Polian talks the relevance of analytics Overall, I agree with him in regards as how to use the stats as a base in decision making. The stats don't take into account the moment in time or if a perceived advantage in a game, actually goes according to plan. So to say that going for it on 4th & 2 against team X's Defense, works x% of the time and therefore increase the chances of being successful? The statistics IMO, don't take into account that these situations (short yardage) may have taken place in the current game on prior downs and the offense has not executed the plays or controlled the LOS as well against team X defense. Does these in game facts play against the overall statistics league wide and drive the coaches decision making? I would think they should... Stats should play a factor in decision making, if a perceive offensive advantage goes according to the teams overall game plan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elite Poster Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The eagles probably used analytics the most out of any team in the league this year, going on 4th downs much more often than other teams, and they are champions. The game has passed this old man. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, pimp on da' net said: Bill Polian talks the relevance of analytics Overall, I agree with him in regards as how to use the stats as a base in decision making. The stats don't take into account the moment in time or if a perceived advantage in a game, actually goes according to plan. So to say that going for it on 4th & 2 against team X's Defense, works x% of the time and therefore increase the chances of being successful? The statistics IMO, don't take into account that these situations (short yardage) may have taken place in the current game on prior downs and the offense has not executed the plays or controlled the LOS as well against team X defense. Does these in game facts play against the overall statistics league wide and drive the coaches decision making? I would think they should... Stats should play a factor in decision making, if a perceive offensive advantage goes according to the teams overall game plan. I agree that the likelihood of success is situational. I think that teams mainly go for it on 4th when they think they have a favorable chance or have no choice due to game situation. I really think the success rate would go down significantly if teams started going for it in those down and distances regularly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said: I agree that the likelihood of success is situational. I think that teams mainly go for it on 4th when they think they have a favorable chance or have no choice due to game situation. I really think the success rate would go down significantly if teams started going for it in those down and distances regularly. ^ How anyone could have watched the Eagles beat NE at SB52 and they say this is beyond comprehension. Pederson is regarded as one of the most forward thinking coaches in the NFL and a huge reason is how he uses his analytics team for football related decisions. I completely disagree with OP. Also if you heard the Polian interview he really did sound like someone whose time has passed him by. He sounded very old-fashioned and borderline senile. He also claimed he was the first person to use analytics ugh. I am so glad that he is not our football czar - he doesn’t have it anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloRush said: ^ How anyone could have watched the Eagles beat NE at SB52 and they say this is beyond comprehension. Pederson is regarded as one of the most forward thinking coaches in the NFL and a huge reason is how he uses his analytics team for football related decisions. I completely disagree with OP. Also if you heard the Polian interview he really did sound like someone whose time has passed him by. He sounded very old-fashioned and borderline senile. He also claimed he was the first person to use analytics ugh. I am so glad that he is not our football czar - he doesn’t have it anymore I respectfully think that if teams started going for it on 4th down on a regular basis that defenses would definitely adjust and the success rate would drop dramatically. I can remember when small, quick “smurf” receivers became all the rage, then defenses adjusted. Next big receivers were what everyone wanted and then defenses have adjusted. Now the tide is turning again. i just think that NFL defenses will adjust accordingly if more offenses start going for it on 4th down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnBonhamRocks Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said: I respectfully think that if teams started going for it on 4th down on a regular basis that defenses would definitely adjust and the success rate would drop dramatically. I can remember when small, quick “smurf” receivers became all the rage, then defenses adjusted. Next big receivers were what everyone wanted and then defenses have adjusted. Now the tide is turning again. i just think that NFL defenses will adjust accordingly if more offenses start going for it on 4th down. Fair point, but (1) going for it on 4th down and WR types are two different choices, and (2) an effective analytics department should be continually re-working their numbers to combat the NFL defenses' adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said: I respectfully think that if teams started going for it on 4th down on a regular basis that defenses would definitely adjust and the success rate would drop dramatically. I can remember when small, quick “smurf” receivers became all the rage, then defenses adjusted. Next big receivers were what everyone wanted and then defenses have adjusted. Now the tide is turning again. i just think that NFL defenses will adjust accordingly if more offenses start going for it on 4th down. Changing body type or skill set is different than this though. what do defenses suddenly start doing on 4th down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, JohnBonhamRocks said: Fair point, but (1) going for it on 4th down and WR types are two different choices, and (2) an effective analytics department should be continually re-working their numbers to combat the NFL defenses' adjustments. I agree, that coveted receiver traits are different than success rates on 4th down, but I do think that the point is similar. I agree that a team should always be monitoring trends and try to be ahead of the change curve. I think that is a lot of what the Eagles did this year, I think next year will be tougher for that strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie Muellers Ghost Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 (edited) 39 minutes ago, Elite Poster said: The eagles probably used analytics the most out of any team in the league this year, going on 4th downs much more often than other teams, and they are champions. The game has passed this old man. Yep Edited March 1, 2018 by Jamie Muellers Ghost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capco Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said: I respectfully think that if teams started going for it on 4th down on a regular basis that defenses would definitely adjust and the success rate would drop dramatically. I can remember when small, quick “smurf” receivers became all the rage, then defenses adjusted. Next big receivers were what everyone wanted and then defenses have adjusted. Now the tide is turning again. i just think that NFL defenses will adjust accordingly if more offenses start going for it on 4th down. I agree. If there's one thing that's true about the NFL, it's that the defensive coordinators in this league will ALWAYS catch up sooner or later no matter how much an offense innovates. I think of it like this: offenses are constantly trying to evolve and surprise opposing defenses with new innovations, but much of it is smoke and mirrors. Defenses don't really innovate regularly, in so much as they are instead actually responding/reacting to offensive innovations and shutting them down. On the other hand, true defensive innovations are rare (such as the concept of zone coverage, or the zone blitz, or maybe even two down linemen a la Super Bowl XXV). True defensive innovations tend to be far more impactful on the game of football and they spark a whole slew of staple offensive plays and/or formations that are designed to counter them (for example, Joe Gibbs said the Redskins created the two-TE base package as a direct response to the Giant's pass rushing via Lawrence Taylor). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Elite Poster said: The eagles probably used analytics the most out of any team in the league this year, going on 4th downs much more often than other teams, and they are champions. The game has passed this old man. They were 2nd in attempts (only 2 attempts more than Miami and Oakland). They were 3rd in conversion %, a full 15 % lower than the best (NO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: They were 2nd in attempts (only 2 attempts more than Miami and Oakland). They were 3rd in conversion %, a full 15 % lower than the best (NO). All semantics aside, he is correct. Philly is among the leaders in 4th down % and Pederson’s innovative use of on-field analytics has been credited toward the success of the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misterbluesky Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: They were 2nd in attempts (only 2 attempts more than Miami and Oakland). They were 3rd in conversion %, a full 15 % lower than the best (NO). The Saints were successful because they had one of,if not the best offensive lines last season..God knows that line dominated us last year.Not to mention Brees at QB. Edited March 1, 2018 by Misterbluesky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pimp on da' net Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said: ^ How anyone could have watched the Eagles beat NE at SB52 and they say this is beyond comprehension. Pederson is regarded as one of the most forward thinking coaches in the NFL and a huge reason is how he uses his analytics team for football related decisions. I completely disagree with OP. Also if you heard the Polian interview he really did sound like someone whose time has passed him by. He sounded very old-fashioned and borderline senile. He also claimed he was the first person to use analytics ugh. I am so glad that he is not our football czar - he doesn’t have it anymore I'll agree to disagree... For clarification, are you saying that regardless of the match up being, not favorable in this case. The decision making process should be based upon current overall league analytics & metrics as opposed to actual in game metrics ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Bill Polian knows analytics about as well as my Uncle Ray, who still insists you should play spades more often in a poker game, because that suits makes more flushes than the other three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 21 minutes ago, pimp on da' net said: I'll agree to disagree... For clarification, are you saying that regardless of the match up being, not favorable in this case. The decision making process should be based upon current overall league analytics & metrics as opposed to actual in game metrics ? Nope... but I’m saying it should definitely be one factor, and a very big one, in on field decisions. I believe that Philadelphia has the right model with an analytics person having direct communication with the head coach. You seem to discount the role of analytics for on field decisions in your original post, as Polian did in his interview. I guess it’s important for coaches to just rely on their “gut instinct,” “down and distance” and the “feel of the game” to make decisions. See how far that gets you. 22 minutes ago, Domdab99 said: Bill Polian knows analytics about as well as my Uncle Ray, who still insists you should play spades more often in a poker game, because that suits makes more flushes than the other three. Listen to the interview he claimed to be the first to use analytics in the NFL!!!. He also believes analytics should be used to determine injuries and not football decisions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I just crunched the numbers and my analysis shows that Bill Polian is old #analytics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pimp on da' net Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 (edited) 21 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: Nope... but I’m saying it should definitely be one factor, and a very big one, in on field decisions. I believe that Philadelphia has the right model with an analytics person having direct communication with the head coach. You seem to discount the role of analytics for on field decisions in your original post, as Polian did in his interview. I guess it’s important for coaches to just rely on their “gut instinct,” “down and distance” and the “feel of the game” to make decisions. See how far that gets you. Listen to the interview he claimed to be the first to use analytics in the NFL!!!. He also believes analytics should be used to determine injuries and not football decisions. This is an inaccurate account of my original post...I clearly stated that overall I agree with Polian ( not all comments) in regards to using in game analytics & metrics as a tool for making game day decisions. Rather than the notions of using league statistics & trends overall for situational football... I further agree with BP assessment that this information gather league wide are based upon the team overall game plan and favorable match ups identified through film study. The fact that certain offensive formations and Team X's counter formations reveals either a favorable or non favorable match up to exploit, not just statistical trends and percentages. Edited March 1, 2018 by pimp on da' net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TtownBillsFan Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 (edited) 3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said: I agree, that coveted receiver traits are different than success rates on 4th down, but I do think that the point is similar. I agree that a team should always be monitoring trends and try to be ahead of the change curve. I think that is a lot of what the Eagles did this year, I think next year will be tougher for that strategy. I think the game ebbs and flows, but big receivers that can catch, and accurate QBs that can get them the ball will never change. I want us to get an accurate QB that isn't afraid to toss the ball up to our WRs, and I want a compliment of NFL-worthy receivers. A tall WR, a strong-man slot, and an X that's a combo of the two. Then sprinkle in a bruiser TE for blocking, and a scat-TE, like Charles Clay. We've got some of the pieces in place. I just hope we fill it all in Edited March 1, 2018 by TtownBillsFan spelling correction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ol Dirty B Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Polian is also the guy running around saying Lamar shouldn't get a shot at QB. It's not the 80's and he lucked up with Manning. He should retire and go be quiet somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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