Why I would be happy with Lamar Jackson

[Gugny]

22 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

That is the point I have been trying to make....which falls on deaf ears for some

 

If you had a Tyrod Taylor who was a little taller, threw more accurately over the middle, and didnt hang onto the ball?

 

Well....you would have something really special

 

And if your Aunt Linda had a dick, she'd be your uncle.

 

What really is your point?  And why do you keep avoiding me?

[John from Riverside]

4 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

And if your Aunt Linda had a dick, she'd be your uncle.

 

What really is your point?  And why do you keep avoiding me?

Gug...do you need a hug

 

All you have to do is ask

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, John from Hemet said:

Gug...do you need a hug

 

All you have to do is ask

 

I do.

 

And I don't want any of that side hug bull ****, either.

[John from Riverside]

Just now, Gugny said:

 

I do.

 

And I don't want any of that side hug bull ****, either.

Oh we are way past that my friend......its full on bear hug for you.

[ddaryl]

2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

1. If that were the case and his completion percentage were only low because he were throwing deep more often, that's something that absolutely should be noted when looking at him. A short throw is obviously far easier to complete than a deep throw, so QBs that are dumping it off all the time will naturally have inflated completion percentages.

 

2. That's not what's going on here though. The numbers in that chart are adjusted for WRs dropping easy passes, throwaways, spikes, and passes batted at the line (the passes batted should be taken note of too, but eliminating those passes was part of ProFootballFocus's attempt to create a more accurate "accuracy" metric since there's no way to tell if those passes would have been on target if not for getting deflected at the line). When adjusting for that, Lamar's completion percentage on all attempts (including the short stuff where Darnold relatively excels) is higher than Darnold.

 

The obvious limitation here is that you can't tell how well-placed the throw was, only that these passes were "catchable", but that same limitation exists in the regular completion percentage number that you were citing as a reason not to consider him. One of the analysts at NDT Scouting (and I believe a writer for the Eagles SBNation blog) is currently working on a breakdown that will specifically look at the numbers behind well-placed balls. He put together a report for all of the Senior Bowl QBs already and it's pretty freaking cool. If you're interested in that report, you can find the link here: https://www.ndtscouting.com/solak-2018-senior-bowl-contextualized-quarterbacking-available/

 

I put together a table comparing the different QBs from that report too, but obviously Rosen, Darnold, and Lamar were not in the Senior Bowl so they aren't included yet.

 

 

 

Yeah. My belief is that you definitely want to be watching the film to be able to see with your own eyes how the QB is performing, but having numbers such as the ones I've posted can help get an idea of how it all breaks down mathematically. Obviously if you watch Rosen throw the ball over 450 times like he did this year, you're going to see a ton of both good and bad throws. The numbers help provide a counter-balance so that your mind doesn't just focus on the good or the bad and accidentally let that skew your opinion too much. The numbers can't capture everything though, and probably the biggest part of quarterbacking: the mental makeup, is something that basically none of us will have the ability to REALLY figure out, at least not as well as the teams can since they get to actually sit down with these guys later in the draft process. 

 

 

 

You can throw this stuff at me all day, and I used to be the same way... Use to hunt down all kinds of different stats etc...  Bottom line every single QB that I tried to justify with secondary stats never panned out or was an OK QB in the pros at best. If you look at the best of the best in the NFL, those who are always competing for playoffs or destinied to be enshrined in HOF or already are you're not going ot find to many anommalies with less than 60% in college. If you do its usulaly a QB who has at least %9% like Carson Palmer

 

Now if the bills sit back then grab Lamar in the late 2nd or 3rd rd then so be it, but he is not accurate enough to take any earlier IMO neither is Allen. If we are going that route then we have to land a top FA vet.

 

My opinion remains Lamar and Allen are a late day 2 or day 3 option, anything else is a reach and could very well set any franchise backwards IMO. Hope its any other club but the Bills

 

 

[ProcessTheTrust]

I think the Watson comparison is the best...meaning if he has that "IT" factor that translates in the pros, he's gonna make a lot of teams regret not picking him. However, there's just no way to know till he's in the fire. Even the Texans thought Watson wasn't ready till Savage made it impossible to not take the chance.

Edited February 15, 2018 by ProcessTheTrust

[Gugny]

If Beane drafts Jackson, then Beane is a crappy GM and this team is going to suck forever.

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

6 minutes ago, ProcessTheTrust said:

I think the Watson comparison is the best...meaning if he has that "IT" factor that translates in the pros, he's gonna make a lot of teams regret not picking him. However, there's just no way to know till he's in the fire. Even the Texans thought Watson wasn't ready till Savage made it impossible to not take the chance.

This guy is very different from Watson.  Watson tore up arguably the greatest college defense of all-time in the title game with his passing.  I have said it before, there is only one player you can compare to Jackson and that is Michael Vick.  I don't think I have ever seen two QB's with such a similar style as those two.  They even both have the rocket arm without the touch.  Remember when Vick would absolutely fire lasers into guys when he didn't exactly need to?  It was like, that was a decent throw but it would have been a lot better and easier to catch if he could have taken a little off.  Jackson has that same delivery.

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, John from Hemet said:

I like him.....but unlike some here I dont downgrade a qb because he can make plays with his athletism and not just him arm talent like some due here

 

Get away from hating on our departing starter.....and think more Mike Vick (young mike vick) you know the guy that went 1st overall in the draft, made tons of plays, had rocket launcher attached to his arm, and actually did put his team on his back at times?

 

Try not to stereo type to much....Lamar Jackson throws the football

I agree.  He might never be as accurate as you want or he might get better, but at least he is willing to throw the ball.

[ProcessTheTrust]

4 minutes ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

This guy is very different from Watson.  Watson tore up arguably the greatest college defense of all-time in the title game with his passing.  I have said it before, there is only one player you can compare to Jackson and that is Michael Vick.  I don't think I have ever seen two QB's with such a similar style as those two.  They even both have the rocket arm without the touch.  Remember when Vick would absolutely fire lasers into guys when he didn't exactly need to?  It was like, that was a decent throw but it would have been a lot better and easier to catch if he could have taken a little off.  Jackson has that same delivery.

I hear ya, but I'm talking in terms of doubts about game transitioning to the pros. A lot of people were torn between whether Watson was really that good or did MWilliams make him look that good. Watson made a lot of plays that left most scratching their heads wondering if it would work in the NFL. Hindsight makes it obvious but I'm sure a little pre 2017 draft digging would find very few thinking he was worth a first round pick.

[The_Dude]

To me it’s weird he’s not getting more pub. I really don’t get why he’s not mentioned with the fab-4 because he belongs. Right now I have it:

1. Mayfield

2a. Rosen

2b. Darnold

4. Jackson

5. Allen

 

[Spiderweb]

4 hours ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

I'm not an expert but I have seen him play a few times and against good defenses his accuracy was not only poor, it was simply awful.

I looked up his stats for last year. Against four good defenses he was;

 

Clemson   21-42   317 yards  3td  1int

Florida St. 13-21   156 yards  1td  0int

Mississippi State  13-31   171 yards   2td  4int

Virginia         15-26    195 yards    3td   2int

 

He is a great runner but he fumbled 11 times last year.

Seems you hit on what I have seen the past two years. Yes, he"s exciting but he's a turnover machine at times and he is not an accurate passer. Great college QB but so was Andre Ware, and a ton of others who failed badly at the next level. This would be a very iffy pick at best. This is an athlete, not a QB.

[ddaryl]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

That's not what you said, and that's not the point.

 

You said that if a guy cannot complete 60% of his passes consistently, then he's not going to develop the ability to do so at the next level.

 

That's simply not true, as evidenced by above.  Wilson hitting 72% as a senior does not mean he hit 60 consistently.

 

There are actually many more examples of guys that didn't hit 60% consistently in college that have done so in the pros. The point isn't that Jackson or Allen will be great passers in the NFL; the point is that guys can absolutely improve accuracy from college to the NFL, and it's not exactly rare for them to do so.

 

Case-in-point:  Lamar Jackson is leaving for the NFL after his JR year (I believe he should've stayed).  Let's compare his numbers through 3 college seasons to those of Russell Wilson through 3 college seasons...

 

Wilson: 36 games played, 682 completions in 1180 att (57.8%), 8545 yards (7.24 YPA), 76 passing TDs and 26 INTs

Jackson: 38 games played, 619 completions in 1086 att (57.0%), 9043 yards (8.33 YPA), 69 passing TDs and 27 INTs

 

Dramatically different?  Nope.  Possible that Jackson simply needs another year (or two) of seasoning?  Totally.

 

 

OK you got me on technicalitties and the very rare very slight annomally

 

Lamar or Allen are not accurate enough at the college lvl to waste a day 1 pick on. Thats what I am saying. Nobody should be trading picks to move up to get them or even wasting a precious 1st rd pick on them. Someone will and i hope to god its not the Bills cause if its the Bills then I'm just going to cry because I have no faith in a franchise that would waste a 1st rd pick on any top QB prospect with less than 60% college compeltion percentage. You want to find a diamond in the orugh you find them in the latter rounds not the 1st round.

 

you're right I didn't say every single thought to the letter, my god I would have to type a novel to cover every little tid bit and possible annomally. But I wouldn't of drafted Wilson in the 1st rd, and neither did anyone else.....  Which is what I say about Lamar and Allen pick them up in the late 2nd or 3rd nothing sooner. Maybe they turn out to be decent QB's but I would never gamble on that with a 1st rd pick. Wilson was a gamble and it paid off but it was a 3rd rd gamble not a mortgage the future gamble.

 

Go through the last 10 drafts and find QB's that maintained top 15 status. Many of them were drafted 1st rd most of them had College Completion of 60%

 

Here is a list of this years top 15 QBs. Staffor is the really only Anommally. Ryan missed by 0.01% which to me is a round up and callit 60%

 

1. Tom Brady 61.9%  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tom-brady-1.html  6th round pick
2. Phillip RIvers 63.6% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/philip-rivers-1.html  1st rd pick
3. Mathew Stafford 57.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/matthew-stafford-1.html 1st rd pick
4. Drew Brees 61.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/drew-brees-1.html 2nd rd pick
5. Ben Roethlesberger 65.5%  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ben-roethlisberger-1.html 1st rd pick
6. Matt Ryan 59.9% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/matt-ryan-1.html 1st rd pick
7. Kirk Cousins  64.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/kirk-cousins-1.html 4th rd pick
8. Alex Smith 66.3% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/alex-smith-3.html 1st rd pick
9. Russel Wilson 60.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/russell-wilson-1.html 3rd rd pick
10. Jared Goff 62.3% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jared-goff-1.html 1st rd pick
11. Blake Bortles 65.7% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/blake-bortles-1.html 1st rd pick
12. Case Keenum 69.4% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/case-keenum-1.html UNDRAFTED FA
13. Jameis WInston 66.0% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jameis-winston-1.html  1st rd pick
14. Derek Carr 66.7% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/derek-carr-1.html 1st rd pick
15. Eli Manning 60.8% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/eli-manning-1.html 1st rd pick

 

2016 not listed above top 15 for this year

 

Aaron Rodgers 63.8%  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/aaron-rodgers-1.html 1st rd pick

Joe Flacco (Played divsion AA Deleware so stats were hard ot find ut 63.4% at Delaware http://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=3350135  1st rd pick

Andrew Luck 67.0% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/andrew-luck-1.html 1st rd pick

Carson Plamer 59.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carson-palmer-1.html 1st rd pick

Andy Dalton 61.7% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/andy-dalton-1.html 2nd rd pick

 

2015 not listed above top 15 for this year

 

Ryan Tannenhill 62.5% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ryan-tannehill-1.html `st rd pick

Ryan Fitzpatrick 59%  approximate hard ot find the stats but this was an eyeball average 7rd pick

 

 

 

I mean we can discuss the possibilites of finding a hidden gem but the fact is if your drafting a QB in round #1 you do not waste that pick on a QB who has a sub par 60% college completion record....  you have 3 annomallies (4 if you want ot include Matt Ryans 59.9% in here) in the last 3 seasons reachng top 15 in the NFL in a single season.

 

There are not many GMs in football proving to be smarter than the rest and grabbing a Russel  Wilson type in the 1st rd.. Nope they wait and take a chance on a Russel Wilson type in round 3

 

Joe Flacco, Stafford, Palmer may be a case for a guy like Allen but that don't happen often enough to support a reach IMO because mor etimes than not they don't pan out. Flacco gets mentioned because he played AA ball in Delaware.

 

SO I would rather trade away the entire draft and move up and get the best we can get then to settle and reach for a Lamar or Allen at 21.... I owuld rather take a flyer on a rd 2 or 3 guy 1st....

 

 

 

[thebandit27]

11 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

OK you got me on technicalitties and the very rare very slight annomally

 

Lamar or Allen are not accurate enough at the college lvl to waste a day 1 pick on. Thats what I am saying. Nobody should be trading picks to move up to get them or even wasting a precious 1st rd pick on them. Someone will and i hope to god its not the Bills cause if its the Bills then I'm just going to cry because I have no faith in a franchise that would waste a 1st rd pick on any top QB prospect with less than 60% college compeltion percentage. You want to find a diamond in the orugh you find them in the latter rounds not the 1st round.

 

you're right I didn't say every single thought to the letter, my god I would have to type a novel to cover every little tid bit and possible annomally. But I wouldn't of drafted Wilson in the 1st rd, and neither did anyone else.....  Which is what I say about Lamar and Allen pick them up in the late 2nd or 3rd nothing sooner. Maybe they turn out to be decent QB's but I would never gamble on that with a 1st rd pick. Wilson was a gamble and it paid off but it was a 3rd rd gamble not a mortgage the future gamble.

 

Go through the last 10 drafts and find QB's that maintained top 15 status. Many of them were drafted 1st rd most of them had College Completion of 60%

 

Here is a list of this years top 15 QBs. Staffor is the really only Anommally. Ryan missed by 0.01% which to me is a round up and callit 60%

 

1. Tom Brady 61.9%  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tom-brady-1.html  6th round pick
2. Phillip RIvers 63.6% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/philip-rivers-1.html  1st rd pick
3. Mathew Stafford 57.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/matthew-stafford-1.html 1st rd pick
4. Drew Brees 61.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/drew-brees-1.html 2nd rd pick
5. Ben Roethlesberger 65.5%  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ben-roethlisberger-1.html 1st rd pick
6. Matt Ryan 59.9% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/matt-ryan-1.html 1st rd pick
7. Kirk Cousins  64.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/kirk-cousins-1.html 4th rd pick
8. Alex Smith 66.3% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/alex-smith-3.html 1st rd pick
9. Russel Wilson 60.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/russell-wilson-1.html 3rd rd pick
10. Jared Goff 62.3% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jared-goff-1.html 1st rd pick
11. Blake Bortles 65.7% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/blake-bortles-1.html 1st rd pick
12. Case Keenum 69.4% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/case-keenum-1.html UNDRAFTED FA
13. Jameis WInston 66.0% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jameis-winston-1.html  1st rd pick
14. Derek Carr 66.7% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/derek-carr-1.html 1st rd pick
15. Eli Manning 60.8% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/eli-manning-1.html 1st rd pick

 

2016 not listed above top 15 for this year

 

Aaron Rodgers 63.8%  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/aaron-rodgers-1.html 1st rd pick

Joe Flacco (Played divsion AA Deleware so stats were hard ot find ut 63.4% at Delaware http://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=3350135  1st rd pick

Andrew Luck 67.0% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/andrew-luck-1.html 1st rd pick

Carson Plamer 59.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carson-palmer-1.html 1st rd pick

Andy Dalton 61.7% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/andy-dalton-1.html 2nd rd pick

 

2015 not listed above top 15 for this year

 

Ryan Tannenhill 62.5% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ryan-tannehill-1.html `st rd pick

Ryan Fitzpatrick 59%  approximate hard ot find the stats but this was an eyeball average 7rd pick

 

 

 

I mean we can discuss the possibilites of finding a hidden gem but the fact is if your drafting a QB in round #1 you do not waste that pick on a QB who has a sub par 60% college completion record....  you have 3 annomallies (4 if you want ot include Matt Ryans 59.9% in here) in the last 3 seasons reachng top 15 in the NFL in a single season.

 

There are not many GMs in football proving to be smarter than the rest and grabbing a Russel  Wilson type in the 1st rd.. Nope they wait and take a chance on a Russel Wilson type in round 3

 

Joe Flacco, Stafford, Palmer may be a case for a guy like Allen but that don't happen often enough to support a reach IMO because mor etimes than not they don't pan out. Flacco gets mentioned because he played AA ball in Delaware.

 

SO I would rather trade away the entire draft and move up and get the best we can get then to settle and reach for a Lamar or Allen at 21.... I owuld rather take a flyer on a rd 2 or 3 guy 1st....

 

 

 

 

That's a lot of effort to refute a point that I didn't make.  I'll say it again:

 

"The point isn't that Jackson or Allen will be great passers in the NFL; the point is that guys can absolutely improve accuracy from college to the NFL, and it's not exactly rare for them to do so."

[#34fan]

There's better QB's available later... I don't HATE Jackson, but this kid, IMO, is NOT a 1st round QB... -He may not even be a QB at all!

 

I look at kids like Danny Etling, or Riley Fergusson, and I see experience, and leadership... I see NONE of that with Jackson... He's just a really talented athlete. -Not a viable QB prospect.

 

More and more, I think the QB GOLD in this draft lies in later rounds  to UDFA... Kid's like Mike White, and Kyle Allen could surprise at the next level...

If OBD is smart, they bypass the hype machine, and go all D for round 1.... Da'ron Payne!!!!!! Rashaan Evans!!!!-Whoo Hoo!

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, #34fan said:

There's better QB's available later... I don't HATE Jackson, but this kid, IMO, is NOT a 1st round QB... -He may not even be a QB at all!

 

I look at kids like Danny Etling, or Riley Fergusson, and I see experience, and leadership... I see NONE of that with Jackson... He's just a really talented athlete. -Not a viable QB prospect.

 

More and more, I think the QB GOLD in this draft lies in later rounds  to UDFA... Kid's like Mike White, and Kyle Allen could surprise at the next level...

If OBD is smart, they bypass the hype machine, and go all D for round 1.... Da'ron Payne!!!!!! Rashaan Evans!!!!-Whoo Hoo!

 

Wait, you see experience advantages in Etling and Ferguson--who have started 37 and 26 games, respectively--over Lamar Jackson, who has started 38 games?

 

That makes no sense at all.

 

As for leadership, I'd like to know what differences in leadership you see; I currently find that conclusion very difficult to support.

[Coastie]

5 hours ago, PaattMaann said:

 

why would not having an agent prevent teams from drafting him? This makes zero sense

 

 

 

 

They cited interview and combine prep primarily.

[#34fan]

36 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Wait, you see experience advantages in Etling and Ferguson--who have started 37 and 26 games, respectively--over Lamar Jackson, who has started 38 games?

 

That makes no sense at all.

 

As for leadership, I'd like to know what differences in leadership you see; I currently find that conclusion very difficult to support.

 

Etling played in two systems Purdue, and LSU.. Big 10, and SEC respectively... Fergusson had a path that took him from Tennessee, then Community College, then Memphis... He stuck with it... I prefer the kids who come through multiple systems and some level of adversity in developing their game... Have you actually observed Riley Fergusson's leadership on the field? Have you heard him speak in presssers? Better yet,  have you watched what Fergusson does in games? How his success isn't bound to the coaches' system like Jackson's is?

 

Your opinion sounds like one of someone who enjoys dropping stats, but doesn't bother watching tons of college football, like I do... I look for leaders of men at the next level. I do not see that with Jackson in the first round. -Sorry.

 

Riley Breakdown

 

 

Edited February 15, 2018 by #34fan
Typo

[racketmaster]

I’ll admit that I have spent the least amount of time researching Jackson. I have watched only 4 of his games and just 3-4 interviews. I have read some articles on him as well but have not does a deep dive into him. By all accounts he has solid character. He is not particularly impressive during interviews but nothing that raises a red flag. In my mind he has 2 things going wrong for him as far as his chances of being drafted by the Bills. First, he is smaller in stature and has a more slender build. The Bills would prefer him to be taller and thicker. Second, and probably more importantly is that he is similar to Tyrod Taylor and not just because they are both black quarterbacks. Jackson is an exceptional runner, probably faster and more explosive than Tyrod. He ran a lot in college and he was successful at it. But quarterbacks that run as much as he did in college do so at the detriment of improving as a passer. The NFL is a different animal. He will make some plays with his legs but eventually the speed and skill of NFL defenders will get to him as they do with Tyrod. And can his more slender frame hold up to NFL collisions? And when defenses scheme to take away his running lanes, will he be prepared to make NFL throws on a consistent basis. We have seen this with Tyrod. He has some success but teams that remain disciplined against the run and keep him in the pocket tend to have success against him. The Bills appear very ready to move on from Tyrod and it would be an odd choice to me if they were to replace him with Jackson. I actually, could see Jackson ending up on a team like the Bengals, Baltimore or San Diego. He could sit behind a veteran but also be used in special situations. Again, I would be surprised if the Bills targeted him as their franchise quarterback. The issue with his accuracy also does not help his cause. Personally, I just don't see the Bills being the right fit for Jackson but stranger things have happened.

[thebandit27]

31 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

Etling played in two systems Purdue, and LSU.. Big 10, and SEC respectively... Fergusson had a path that took him from Tennessee, then Community College, then Memphis... He stuck with it... I prefer the kids who come through multiple systems and some level of adversity in developing their game... Have you actually observed Riley Fergusson's leadership on the field? Have you heard him speak in presssers? Better yet,  have you watched what Fergusson does in games? How his success isn't bound to the coaches' system like Jackson's is?

 

Your opinion sounds like one of someone who enjoys dropping stats, but doesn't bother watching tons of college football, like I do... I look for leaders of men at the next level. I do not see that with Jackson in the first round. -Sorry.

 

Riley Breakdown

 

 

 

Yeah, well you've discredited yourself with your last paragraph there