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At Last, a GM Who Values Comp Picks


Thurman#1

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10 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I don't believe it we could of had a extra third if the Bills would have cut Ducasse, Davis & Holmes by week 10 of last season.  Beane was in charge and he didn't make the necessary cuts to do so . Ducasse was a starter on the line but he was easily replaceable the others where just rotation guys. BTW we traded Darby for a 3 just think bout that.  Darby is more valuable then 3 journeymen rotation players.  Just doesn't make sense to me. 

 

Hindsight. We were in a playoff run. Do you really start cutting players for comp picks at that point?

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10 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I don't believe it we could of had a extra third if the Bills would have cut Ducasse, Davis & Holmes by week 10 of last season.  Beane was in charge and he didn't make the necessary cuts to do so . Ducasse was a starter on the line but he was easily replaceable the others where just rotation guys. BTW we traded Darby for a 3 just think bout that.  Darby is more valuable then 3 journeymen rotation players.  Just doesn't make sense to me. 

Darby’s value was relative to the scheme, though. He is just not a good match for McD’s preferrences. The fact we didn’t miss him at all seems to bear that out. And the potential value of the third round pick we acquired for Darby has yet to be realized as well. 

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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's not true.  Cutting 3 players would have got us a 7th (at best) because we would still have been overall neutral.  If you wanted a 3rd you needed to cut FOUR of the players I listed above.  To do that you would have been cutting multiple starters.  

This is not the chart i seen . Really at the end of the day this comp pk formula is a bunch of crap if u ask me.  The guys we lost were getting paid big money and they were past high pks for us . We sign a couple of depth players for cheap and can't get nothing out of it. It just doesn't match up the NFL needs to work on this. 

Who's to say with a little more time Darby wouldn't of bought in and started to play at a high level.  That would of been one less hole to fill this offseason for us. The problem i have with Mcd is his insistence to add ready made players for his schemes instead of coaching guys up to fit him.  To me the best coaches are the ones that can shape mold players to fit there systems. For now Mcd hasn't proven to do this yet. 

20 minutes ago, kota said:

I find it amazing that Bills fan's believe this is the reason for the 17 year old drought.

I believe we are gonna pay a tax for breaking the drought.  This team has massive holes to fill and the biggest of them all is QB. Missing out on Mahomes and Watson might be a back breaker for Mcd when its all said and done. 

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11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They couldn't get there by then.  Ducasse was their starting RG, they were starting to use DiMarco, Shaq's injury meant Ryan Davis was in the starting lineup and Andre Holmes was a key special teamer.  Had they been out of the playoff race they'd have made those cuts.  You don't sabotage seasons half way through for comp picks when you are in the running.  You have to do it by building the right way in March and April.  

Trading Darius for a 5th didn't really help us. Do you think a team would trade their 3rd rounder for Ducasse, Holmes, and Davis? I think we only needed to trade or cut 2 of these to get a 3rd. Beane missed an opportunity but I still like him. NE and Baltimore do a good job with trading or signing guys that don't count against the formula.

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10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Hyde - starting S

Poyer - starting S

Hauschka - starting K

Ducasse - stating RG

Johnson - starting nickel

DiMarco - fullback

Davis - rotational / latterly starting DE

Holmes - backup WR / STer 

 

So three of those get us ONE 7th rounder.  Once the roster had been built the way it had and the team was in contention there was very little Beane could do. It was on McDermott's roster building back in the spring.  

cut 4 and you get at a 3rd. Cut 5 and you get a 3rd and 7th.

 

To put in perspective if they cut 5, Kelvin Benjamin would have basically been FREE.

 

They could have then immediately resigned Ducasse Johnson DiMarco Davis and Holmes after cutting them. If they wanted them.

This would have been a delicate thing to do, but you go to the guys you want to bring back and explain the situation. You also sweeten the pot a little by signing them to a little more salary for the remainder of the year. Win win. They keep the guarantees in original contracts and get another for remainder of year.

 

A savvy FO would have gotten this done.

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I really think this comp pick thing is overblown.  If you have a very good team, you lose a couple of prize F/A and are able to backfill from within instead of having to sign someone else's pricey F/A, great you get a comp pick or two.  If you are a bad to mediocre team(the Bills), and you lose a key F/A or two, you have to do what you can to make the team better...even it means you lose out on a precious extra 6th round pick.

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2 hours ago, SaviorPeterman said:

This isn't really a good thing, just means the Bills will stick to their usual plan of signing '2nd tier' type FA players on the cheap and letting a bunch of current players walk in FA.

 

This also confirms my suspicion that 2018 may be the true 'tank' season for this new regime because it's going to be hard to win a lot of games with a roster full of rookies and 2nd year players. And even if Peterman makes huge strides might not be enough to come close to last years win loss record in 2018.

I have to disagree on the tank 2018 thing. With even slightly better QB play....a healthy receiving corp with even one decent deep threat addition....an improvement on the dline and oline, we will be 10-6 or better. A good draft and a couple of free agent pickups, we'll be fine....and that's assuming that Peterman starts.  Trust the Process.

 

I know i'll get flamed for this, but as far as going after a QB (regardless of who and where we draft one, he won't start), I'm going to go after 1. Foles  2.Luck 3. Mc carron. We can't afford the war for Cousins. Keenum and Bridgewater will stay in Minny. Bradford will get over paid probably by someone like the Cards.

 

I wouldn't even consider a QB with an injury history or Alex Smith who would just be a higher priced Peterman....and none of those 3 I listed would break the bank demanding long term contracts.

 

I understand we have a lot of UFA's, but I think the ones we need can be had again on a one year deal. This last year's schedule was supposed to be extremely difficult and we did ok. This year we will walk into the postseason on our own two feet. I'm grateful for the Andy Dalton miracle, but then losing 10-3 to the Jags was an embarrassment.

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2 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

This is not the chart i seen . 

 

We have 5 qualifying outgoing FAs:

Gilmore

Woods

McCray

Brown

Goodwin

 

We had 8 qualifying incoming FAs:

Hyde

Poyer

Hauschka

DiMarco

Johnson

Holmes

Ducasse

Davis

 

If you are level in the number of qualifying in and out (which we would be had we cut 3) then you can qualify for, at most, a 7th round pick back if the round allocation to your 5 outgoing is higher than the round allocation to your 5 incoming. To qualify for any more than that you need to be in deficit after all qualifying FAs in and out are counted. 

 

The difference to the chart you will have seen is Leonard Johnson who was a non qualifying FA in the summer but because of his % playing time ends the season as a qualifying FA. So to be in deficit we would have needed to cut 4. 

 

If your argument is the system is not fair that is a different point. But to argue that the Bills could, under the current system, have simply got there by cuts before week 10 without disrupting a team in playoff contention is wrong. 

 

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1 hour ago, turftoe said:

Trading Darius for a 5th didn't really help us. Do you think a team would trade their 3rd rounder for Ducasse, Holmes, and Davis? I think we only needed to trade or cut 2 of these to get a 3rd. Beane missed an opportunity but I still like him. NE and Baltimore do a good job with trading or signing guys that don't count against the formula.

 

No. See my post above. For a 3rd round pick we needed to cut 4 of "these". Only 1 of the 8 we had (two I suppose when you consider the % of snaps for DiMarco) were not starters by that point. 

 

I agree NE and Baltimore do a good job of working FA and trades to sign non qualifying players where possible. Beane might well too but he wasn't here when this roster was constructed. That was on McDermott. If you put the blame on Beane for no comp picks this year what you are actually saying is you wanted him to cut starting players on a team in playoff contention after a 17 year drought.

 

You are entitled to think that would have been the best approach I am entitled to tell you I think you are 100% wrong. 

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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No. See my post above. For a 3rd round pick we needed to cut 4 of "these". Only 1 of the 8 we had (two I suppose when you consider the % of snaps for DiMarco) were not starters by that point. 

 

I agree NE and Baltimore do a good job of working FA and trades to sign non qualifying players where possible. Beane might well too but he wasn't here when this roster was constructed. That was on McDermott. If you put the blame on Beane for no comp picks this year what you are actually saying is you wanted him to cut starting players on a team in playoff contention after a 17 year drought.

 

You are entitled to think that would have been the best approach I am entitled to tell you I think you are 100% wrong. 

Well, think what you want. I realize that Beane wasn't here when these players were signed but he had no trouble shipping Darius, Watkins, and Darby. Darby was a starter and returned a 3rd rounder. A 3rd round pick has value. The guys that we kept to pass on a 3rd round comp pick will probably not even be on the team next year. Certainly, Hyde, Poyer, and  Hauschka were keepers. You could still have kept either Holmes or Davis and had another 3rd in April. If it were low level free agents that we lost, then the comp would have been a late rounder.  We lost Gilmore which would have clearly netted a 3rd.  Who are we going to lose this year that will bring that kind of value? 

Edited by turftoe
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1 hour ago, turftoe said:

 You could still have kept either Holmes or Davis and had another 3rd in April. If it were low level free agents that we lost, then the comp would have been a late rounder.  We lost Gilmore which would have clearly netted a 3rd.  Who are we going to lose this year that will bring that kind of value? 

 

You could.... but you'd have been cutting your starting guard, starting nickel and either Davis or Holmes (as well as DiMarco but to be honest I could have suffered that) half way through a season where you were right in contention. Not sure there is a team in the NFL who make that move.

 

There is probably nobody we are losing this year who will net a 3rd.... although if Gaines goes it is likely because he is too expensive for the Bills and then his contract might have him around 4th rounder territory. 

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