The 2017 Draft: 1st round Re-do

[P51]

18 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Knowing what you know now... looking back at the 2017 draft, what do you think the Bills should have done in the 1st round?

 

As of today its taking Watson and its not close IMO, I get its kind of an incomplete hypothetical situation not knowing what the 1st round pick this year will be or affect in the upcoming draft, but I would gladly trade it and Tre back to KC for the 10th pick and take Watson today, utilizing the omnipotent power of hindsight.  Short sample size, but potential franchise QB who has shown all the tools to be a franchise QB, including accuracy (my biggest knock on him coming out) that IMO he did not display in college. 

 

Should they parlay the extra 2018 1st round pick from the trade into a franchise QB in this draft, or draft one any other way this year, then Tre' and a Franchise QB (whomever it could be) would be the winning combination, but as of today, take the franchise QB and go from there. 

[The Dean]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I understand the reasons why the Bills didn't draft Watson (or Mahomes for that matter) by the way..... a new HC with a lame duck GM he didn't trust and scouts he was suspicious of.  He wanted to make sure that when he took his guy he did so on the evaluations of people he trusted implicitly because he gets 1 crack at this HC lark and he probably gets 1 crack at handpicking the QB of the future.  

 

 

 

 

While I think may be some truth to this, do you really think "the scouts" drive an early 1st round draft pick to any real extent? I can see relying mostly on the scouts input for picks later down the line. But these high round guys are vetted by the HC, GM, hell probably even the owner. They come in and talk to and meet the coaches, much of the time. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, The Dean said:

 

While I think may be some truth to this, do you really think "the scouts" drive an early 1st round draft pick to any real extent? I can see relying mostly on the scouts input for picks later down the line. But these high round guys are vetted by the HC, GM, hell probably even the owner. They come in and talk to and meet the coaches, much of the time. 

 

He wanted his guys.  Beane is joined at the hip to McD.  He trusts him and the people he chooses more than he ever trusted Whaley or the people he picked.  

[The Dean]

36 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He wanted his guys.  Beane is joined at the hip to McD.  He trusts him and the people he chooses more than he ever trusted Whaley or the people he picked.  

 

Not sure I'm buying it on this one. McDermott made (or at least drove) a lot of decisions during the draft. You have to move forward with the people you have in place, when it comes to decisions. Actually, trading away the pick gave MORE responsibility to the scouts and Whaley. McDermott likely had almost all the control for the first pick. The further you get away from the top picks, the more input scouts typically have. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, The Dean said:

 

Not sure I'm buying it on this one. McDermott made (or at least drove) a lot of decisions during the draft. You have to move forward with the people you have in place, when it comes to decisions. Actually, trading away the pick gave MORE responsibility to the scouts and Whaley. McDermott likely had almost all the control for the first pick. The further you get away from the top picks, the more input scouts typically have. 

 

He drove all the decisions.  I have no doubt about that.  But taking a franchise QB is the BIGGEST decision and he wasn't willing to stick his neck out on that until he had his guys to fall back on.  

[suorangefan4]

In hindsight, I still like trading down for an extra 1st rounder and Tre White or TJ Watt would've been the pick.

 

I wish we had traded with the Texans instead of the Chiefs though. That pick is currently 5th (lucky Browns).

 

Staying put and taking Watson would've been good too although I did worry about his lack of arm strength translating to the NFL.

[Antonio]

Knowing what you know now... I think the Browns would have taken Watson No. 1 soooo Mayles Garret goes No. 2 

 

I think the same but we would have to pick someone ealse because Tre would not be there at 27.

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, Antonio said:

Knowing what you know now... I think the Browns would have taken Watson No. 1 soooo Mayles Garret goes No. 2 

 

I think the same but we would have to pick someone ealse because Tre would not be there at 27.

 

Correct.  In a full redo the Bills do not get the choice of Watson and might have to pick Tre at their original 10th spot to get him.  

[dave mcbride]

I get the sentiment for taking Watson, but I do think that both Rosen and Darnold are surer bets long term than Watson (I realize I may prove to be wildly wrong). The Bills at least got an extra first and have a lot of room to move given the extra second as well. The Browns and Giants are both likely to take a qb, though, and they won't trade out. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

I get the sentiment for taking Watson, but I do think that both Rosen and Darnold are surer bets long term than Watson (I realize I may prove to be wildly wrong). The Bills at least got an extra first and have a lot of room to move given the extra second as well. The Browns and Giants are both likely to take a qb, though, and they won't trade out. 

 

That is the point.  The point is guys that good rarely drop to a team picking in the kind of area the Bills routinely do.  In 2015 and 2016 there was nobody close to Watson that dropped to that area of the draft.  I personally have Darnold graded lower at this stage than I had Watson but even if I didn't you might be in the same situation again if he and Rosen go 1 and 2.  

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is the point.  The point is guys that good rarely drop to a team picking in the kind of area the Bills routinely do.  In 2015 and 2016 there was nobody close to Watson that dropped to that area of the draft.  I personally have Darnold graded lower at this stage than I had Watson but even if I didn't you might be in the same situation again if he and Rosen go 1 and 2.  

Agreed.  The Bills needed something like Cam Newton, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, or Matthew Stafford going down with a non-crippling injury and ending up with a very high pick as a consequence. It didn't happen.

The draft targets now are Indy and SF. Unfortunately, SF looks to be decent now with Garrapolo in there and may win 4-5 games. He's a very good player. Great trade by the Niners.

Edited December 12, 2017 by dave mcbride

[BillsfanAZ]

I think you have to wait to see. Watson would not  be the same player here in Buffalo as he is in Houston. Houston has talented and fast receivers. If the KC pick is a solid starter or you use that pick to move up and get one of the better QB's in the draft then it was worth it. I like White and think he was a steal for where the Bills picked him. 

[jrober38]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Well if you want to base it on what we know now...

 

Watson now has 2 torn ACL's, one in each knee.  So there is that too.

 

Meh. He's a QB who set numerous records this year and last I checked we need an upgrade there. 

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Well Watson's first ACL is repaired and he has played for 3 years now with no ill effects. The 2nd ACL injury? Yea it is a concern. But you never pass up a potential Franchise QB for a DB. I thought he was one then and still do. 

 

And I love Tre White. Once we traded back he was immediately the player I wanted us to target. 

 

The only QB I have graded higher than Watson at this stage will not be there when we pick. 

 

I don't really disagree with what you are saying, and you definitely were a big Watson champion so kudos on that.   But I wouldnt necessarily say "no ill effects" considering he tore his other ACL.  There are some people in the medical field that firmly believe your chances to tear the other ACL on the other leg go up when you are dealing with a recovery from a torn ACL based on how your body compensates through recovery and the mental aspect of exerting more energy on it even when recovered because there is a tendency to feel to need to protect the other leg.  There is a bigger reoccurrence of tearing the other ACL rather than tearing the repaired ACL a second time.  

 

If we had Watson here I wouldnt have any issue with it, I loved the kid in college, and of all the QB's last draft he would have been the one I was most comfortable with.  I had concerns about his turnovers and ability to translate to the NFL, so my preference in the draft was help repair the D and go QB this next year if TT or NP didn't cease the job.  

 

Truthfully, both scenarios seemed to have worked out in the near term evaluation.  Watson showed great potential had we gone that direction (although no way he has just as good a season with the scrub WR's we have started most the season) and we are in mid December and currently still in the playoffs with 3 games to play with a big rebound from the defense this year and Tre was a big part of that, and still have our picks to get us a QB this draft.

 

PS:  Keep in mind, those WR's in Houston are making guys like Savage and Yates look like decent starting QB's too.  So Watson still has a lot more to show before I think we really know his future, but it definitely looks bright.

24 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Meh. He's a QB who set numerous records this year and last I checked we need an upgrade there. 

 

Tell that to RG3, Culpepper, etc who looked like studs and injuries sent those careers in another direction.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

PS:  Keep in mind, those WR's in Houston are making guys like Savage and Yates look like decent starting QB's too.  So Watson still has a lot more to show before I think we really know his future, but it definitely looks bright.

 

Wrong. Hopkins is. He is a proven stud who made plays with Brian Hoyer. Everyone else's numbers are way down across the board vs when Watson was in. I don't doubt having DeAndre Hopkins helps.... of course it does but other than that Deshaun was raising the level of guys like Ellington, Fuller and Griffin and making them look better than they are. 

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Wrong. Hopkins is. He is a proven stud who made plays with Brian Hoyer. Everyone else's numbers are way down across the board vs when Watson was in. I don't doubt having DeAndre Hopkins helps.... of course it does but other than that Deshaun was raising the level of guys like Ellington, Fuller and Griffin and making them look better than they are. 

 

Lol...I get you love Watson man, and rightfully so, but Fuller and Hopkins are one of the best 1/2 punches in the NFL.  And of course someone numbers will drop, Watson is clearly better than Savage/Yates.

[TigerJ]

Tre'davious White turned out to have been an excellent pick, and I have no problem with the Bills' strategy in the first round, since teams don't have the benefit of hindsight when they draft.  However, redrafts are all about hindsight.  Deshaun Watson looks like the real deal in Houston.  I expect when he recovers from his injury, he will continue to develop into a reliable franchise level QB.  A franchise is a major key to success in the NFL and it has been a very long time since Buffalo has had one.  That makes this an easy choice.

[SaviorPeterman]

I think the 1st round worked out pretty good for us all things considered.

 

In fact you can argue the entire draft fell into place nicely for the Bills especially landing a potential steal and franchise QB in the 5th round.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Lol...I get you love Watson man, and rightfully so, but Fuller and Hopkins are one of the best 1/2 punches in the NFL.  And of course someone numbers will drop, Watson is clearly better than Savage/Yates.

 

Hopkins I 100% agree.  But Fuller?  Here are the stats:

 

With Watson - averages 69.75 yards per game and 1.75 TDs per game

With other QBs over 2 seasons - averages 41.6 yards per game and 0.14 TDs per game.  

In fact Fuller has 9 NFL Touchdowns in almost 2 seasons.  7 of them came in his 4 games with Watson at QB.  

 

Fuller with Watson is a bona fide 1B NFL receiver.  Without him he is an average #2.  

 

I agree by the way that it worked out fine for the Bills and they got a very good player who could be here a long time.  I also understand why they did what they did.  That does not change my opinion on what they should have done or what the right thing to do was. They made a wrong decision in my view.  

Edited December 12, 2017 by GunnerBill

[TigerJ]

8 minutes ago, SaviorPeterman said:

I think the 1st round worked out pretty good for us all things considered.

 

In fact you can argue the entire draft fell into place nicely for the Bills especially landing a potential steal and franchise QB in the 5th round.

 

 

I may be ready to agree with you in a year or so.  I'm not ready yet.

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hopkins I 100% agree.  But Fuller?  Here are the stats:

 

With Watson - averages 69.75 yards per game and 1.75 TDs per game

With other QBs over 2 seasons - averages 41.6 yards per game and 0.14 TDs per game.  

In fact Fuller has 9 NFL Touchdowns in almost 2 seasons.  7 of them came in his 4 games with Watson at QB.  

 

Fuller with Watson is a bona fide 1B NFL receiver.  Without him he is an average #2.  

 

I agree by the way that it worked out fine for the Bills and they got a very good player who could be here a long time.  I also understand why they did what they did.  That does not change my opinion on what they should have done or what the right thing to do was. They made a wrong decision in my view.  

 

Not sure what point you are trying to make here.  I already said Watson is better than the guys Houston has trotted out, and Fuller is young and most of the non-Watson stats you are citing is his from his rookie with year with terrible QB play.  

 

All I said is that Hopkins/Fuller is one of the best 1/2 punches in the NFL right now.  And they showed it with better QB play.  Then I cited that its still early on to tell with Watson because he has serious talent to throw to and want to see sustained success not just a handful of games.  Great WR duos have made others look better than they were too in the past, so just want to see Watson do it for longer once the NFL has more tape and a game plan for him.  

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Not sure what point you are trying to make here.  I already said Watson is better than the guys Houston has trotted out, and Fuller is young and most of the non-Watson stats you are citing is his from his rookie with year with terrible QB play.  

 

All I said is that Hopkins/Fuller is one of the best 1/2 punches in the NFL right now.  And they showed it with better QB play.  Then I cited that its still early on to tell with Watson because he has serious talent to throw to and want to see sustained success not just a handful of games.  Great WR duos have made others look better than they were too in the past, so just want to see Watson do it for longer once the NFL has more tape and a game plan for him.  

 

I am not ready to say Fuller is great and Watson is wait and see based on those numbers. I agree we shouldn't annoint anyone on 6 games but I think Fuller's career performances do not point to him being part of a great 1/2 punch. Only his numbers with Watson point to that. 

 

Basically I am not convinced Fuller did anything to make Watson better. I contend the evidence so far suggests quite the opposite. 

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not ready to say Fuller is great and Watson is wait and see based on those numbers. I agree we shouldn't annoint anyone on 6 games but I think Fuller's career performances do not point to him being part of a great 1/2 punch. Only his numbers with Watson point to that. 

 

Basically I am not convinced Fuller did anything to make Watson better. I contend the evidence so far suggests quite the opposite. 

 

Fari enough, I just really am high on Fuller and was coming out of college too.  Much like you with Watson.  Either way, we are in agreement it will be fun to watch develop there once Watson is back and Bills still in a good position with Tre and an extra first.

 

Who are you pulling for this draft at QB?  I am a bit torn on who I want still, there are quite a few intriguing QB's.  I still think the pick will be Baker Mayfield in a less expensive trade up scenario compared to trying to go up and get Rosen or Darnold.  But who I think and I want doesn't necessarily mean the same thing.  I would be thrilled with Rosen, Darnold, or Baker none the less.  But still intrigued by several others too, especially if we can stay put and grab them and use our other firsts and picks through first 3 rounds filling out other positions.  

[Jamie Muellers Ghost]

Curious about the two that voted for this option... Trade 10 to KC but take a different player than Tre White at 27

which player ?

 

I'm still the only one to vote for Lattimore  : )

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Fari enough, I just really am high on Fuller and was coming out of college too.  Much like you with Watson.  Either way, we are in agreement it will be fun to watch develop there once Watson is back and Bills still in a good position with Tre and an extra first.

 

Who are you pulling for this draft at QB?  I am a bit torn on who I want still, there are quite a few intriguing QB's.  I still think the pick will be Baker Mayfield in a less expensive trade up scenario compared to trying to go up and get Rosen or Darnold.  But who I think and I want doesn't necessarily mean the same thing.  I would be thrilled with Rosen, Darnold, or Baker none the less.  But still intrigued by several others too, especially if we can stay put and grab them and use our other firsts and picks through first 3 rounds filling out other positions.  

 

Yea and I am maybe guilty of sticking to what was not a great view of Fuller coming out. I had a couple of chat box afternoons debating it with Turbs. But I do think the sharp uptick in production with Watson tells something of a story. Anyway... we will get no further with that debate until next season. 

 

As for this year I think the trade up for Rosen or Darnold (who I do think will come out) is really attractive if we have a dance partner. I fancied the 49ers but they are playing their way out... I see Cleveland and the Giants standing pat and picking a Quarterback if they are 1 and 2. 

 

While I do like Baker Mayfield and think he absolutely desrves to be a 1st round pick I am a bit more wary about a trade up for him. If he is there when we are on the clock I would pick him but I have enough personality flags to be wary about mortgaging the future for him.

 

After that I have Rudolph and then Jackson who I am absolutely not trading up for but would be happy to take a swing on. Rudolph I think would need to sit a little while but by half way through 18 I think you could get him on the field. I think Jackson you would have to make pretty substantial varience to your offense for to get anything at all out of him in 18.

 

If all 5 are off the board the 1st time we go on the clock I might honestly then punt on a QB as much as I hate that. I hate the idea of Josh Allen in the 1st (or even 2nd) a lot. Maybe trade the 2nd first to a team who wants to come up for Allen and get a 2nd number 1 again next year?? 

 

Having said all that I very, very much doubt Mayfield or Jackson are in play for Buffalo. I have heard Brandon Beane describe his view of a franchise QB and it doesn't sound like either of them. I suspect the Bills board is Rosen and Darnold in some order at 1 and 2, then Rudolph and Allen in some order at 3 and 4. I might be completely wrong of course but that is how I see it. 

 

Edited December 12, 2017 by GunnerBill

[Alphadawg7]

31 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea and I am maybe guilty of sticking to what was not a great view of Fuller coming out. I had a couple of chat box afternoons debating it with Turbs. But I do think the sharp uptick in production with Watson tells something of a story. Anyway... we will get no further with that debate until next season. 

 

As for this year I think the trade up for Rosen or Darnold (who I do think will come out) is really attractive if we have a dance partner. I fancied the 49ers but they are playing their way out... I see Cleveland and the Giants standing pat and picking a Quarterback if they are 1 and 2. 

 

While I do like Baker Mayfield and think he absolutely desrves to be a 1st round pick I am a bit more wary about a trade up for him. If he is there when we are on the clock I would pick him but I have enough personality flags to be wary about mortgaging the future for him.

 

After that I have Rudolph and then Jackson who I am absolutely not trading up for but would be happy to take a swing on. Rudolph I think would need to sit a little while but by half way through 18 I think you could get him on the field. I think Jackson you would have to make pretty substantial varience to your offense for to get anything at all out of him in 18.

 

If all 5 are off the board the 1st time we go on the clock I might honestly then punt on a QB as much as I hate that. I hate the idea of Josh Allen in the 1st (or even 2nd) a lot. Maybe trade the 2nd first to a team who wants to come up for Allen and get a 2nd number 1 again next year?? 

 

Having said all that I very, very much doubt Mayfield or Jackson are in play for Buffalo. I have heard Brandon Beane describe his view of a franchise QB and it doesn't sound like either of them. I suspect the Bills board is Rosen and Darnold in some order at 1 and 2, then Rudolph and Allen in some order at 3 and 4. I might be completely wrong of course but that is how I see it. 

 

 

I am pretty aligned in everything you said, except the idea of punting on a QB this year unless they do some surprise move in Free Agency to get someone like Cousins which they would obviously take QB out of the equation.  

 

If rumors are true with the Bills love of say Darnold, wouldnt surprise me to see a big trade up.  And while its easy to think that a QB needy team will stand pat and just take one of them, this is a relatively deep QB class, so gaining a bounty of picks and still nabbing a good QB prospect they might also like will be quite tempting for a team rebuilding.  

 

I still think that Baker is the likely rookie we get simply because he still fits what we have heard Beane claim he wants and will cost less than going up to get Darnold.  The one dark horse for me is actually Lamar.  I get what you said about Beanes public comments, but thats also exactly what he would say if he was interested in Lamar too because they don't want to tip their hat if they do like him.  I think Watsons early success is now going to make teams much more interested and curious about Lamar, so if he shows well throwing at the combine I think he could be a guy we target and don't even have to trade up to get.  This also allows us to use all our other draft assets filling the other needs of the team like OL and DL and probably another WR too with Kelvins durability issues and ZJ's struggles.  

 

I also would be ok using our first 2 picks on something other than a QB and going after someone in the 2nd because I think after you get past Rosen, Darnold, and Baker the rest of the grouping all have similar amounts of pros and cons so it comes down to who the team likes best.  

 

My prediction is still Baker as we sit here today.  But there will be a lot between now and the draft that will impact that of course.

[GunnerBill]

I'd be happy with Baker.... I am just not sure he does fit what Beane wants. 

[Buffalo86]

Other:  

Do the same deal, but with the Giants, who were reportedly desperate to trade up for Mahomes.  

Use the #23 on White.  

Bicker over which QB to take with the Giants' 2018 pick.

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo86 said:

Other:  

Do the same deal, but with the Giants, who were reportedly desperate to trade up for Mahomes.  

Use the #23 on White.  

Bicker over which QB to take with the Giants' 2018 pick.

 

I see the Giants taking Eli's successor at #2. 

[Buffalo86]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I see the Giants taking Eli's successor at #2. 

 

Definitely, but it should've been Tyrod's successor instead.