49ers are the trade target

[Harryhood280]

With the way the Chiefs are cratering, we're looking pretty good I think. Say we finish 7-9 and the Chiefs finish 9-7. For the sake of argument let's give the Bills the 12th pick and the Chiefs the 21st. Well also assume that the Dareus pick becomes a fifth rounder. 

 

the draft trade value chart is not considered very accurate, especially when trading top of the draft picks. But let's use it to look at the Eagles trade for Wentz, and see What they gave up according to the chart. In order to go from 8 to 2, the Eagles traded current 3rd and 4th rounders, next year's 1st, and the following years 2nd. 

 

The 2nd pick is worth 2600 points. Considering future picks are normally counted at half their value, the Eagles traded 8 (1400) 72(230) 115(64) future 1st (700) future 2nd (250). Surprisingly, this matches almost perfectly in terms of value. 2600 for 2644. The Eagles also got back a future 4th, bringing it even closer to 2620. 

 

So so let's look at the Bills going from 12 to 2. A package of 12 (1200), 21 (800), 44(460), future 2nd (250) is more value than the Eagles gave, at 2710 instead of 2620. This should be plenty, and would still give us a normal pick in every round draft, as well as not throwing away next year's draft. If we end up worse than 7-9, or if we only need to trade to 3 or 4, it will look even better. 

 

Throw this his out the window though if the Bills do Billsy stuff and win 3-4 more game just to miss the playoffs anyway. 

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Teddy Bridgewater is the target. 

 

And you don't need to trade valuable draft picks to get him.

I can’t see the Bills having confidence in a guy coming off of one of the worst injuries ever that didn’t produce at a level of Tyrod prior. He’s a good shot for a team like Seattle behind Wilson. No one is entering next season with Bridgewater as a #1.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I guess my point is that they wouldn’t have given up what they did without believing that Jimmy G is their guy. He may end up being bad. It’s certainly possible. They are going to commit to giving him the chance for AT LEAST 2018. That’s why I see no chance that they miss the opportunity to get a great player at 2 or trade back. They won’t use that valuable of a resource on another QB. 

 

All I know is that I said very similar things about the Eagles before the draft.  I thought they were totally nuts.  Then opportunity knocked in the form of the Vikes while they'd decided Wentz looked ready to play, and Life was Good.  No matter what they sign Jimmy G for, some team will wind up in a position where they're willing to make the 49ers an offer they can't refuse.

 

I'll say this: if we were in the 49ers position it wouldn't bother me a bit if we went 'all in' like that.  The position is that important.

 

8 minutes ago, aceman_16 said:

Yeah the height 6'1+ is Tyrod height. However, Drew Brees (6'0") and Russell Wilson (5'11") make it because they improvise and anticipate. Measurables are good but not the only thing ... it is how the Bills screwed themselves over with the Rob Johnson (6'4") vs Doug Flutie (5'10") debacle.

 

Not to mention the whole pass-on-Russ-"Shorty"-Wilson to draft that fast WR with no route running skills and stone hands - Graham was his name?

 

6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He didn’t have the power. 

 

5 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Because by the time the draft came along Whaley wasn't making the decisions anymore?  And hadn't been for a long time?

 

I do get that, I should have rephrased - if the guy who was said to still be setting up our draft board really liked Watson, why didn't the Bills draft decision making take that evaluation into account?

[apuszczalowski]

25 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

They took Cousins in the 4th round or something. That’s totally different. The plan was for him to be RG’s backup.

 

The Pats took a 2nd on Jimmy G and like a 3rd on Brissett. Their QB is 40. It turns out that he doesn’t age so they moved both young guys for basically what they used in the draft. They got Dorsett and a 2nd. That is a net zero. 

They still took 2 QBs by the end of day 2 in the same draft. The Patriots continue to pick QBs early in the draft even with Brady. QBs are valuable trade chips, especially if they are young and unproven. The 49ers most likely won't pick one at the top of the draft, but that's not a sure thing, they may value the idea of having 2 guys who could battle for the spot in camp. It's not like they are going to be paying Garapollo 20+ mil a year to see what they have in him.

[The Frankish Reich]

Baker Mayfield: 

 

Quote

 

“His game is not supposed to mix,” said Fox analyst Joel Klatt, who was in the broadcast booth for Mayfield’s 598-yard performance Saturday against Oklahoma State. “Normally, you get a guy that is such a good player outside the structure of the offense and a good improviser, normally those players are not as efficient. Usually, you’re either a gunslinger or you’re efficient. For some reason, this kid has married the two together in a way that is really unique.”

Pro Football Focus has graded Mayfield as its best NFL quarterback prospect for the past two years. Mayfield, per its tracking, has made the lowest percentage of missed throws and grades at an elite level on accuracy on deep throws.

 

Yeah, I like Rosen and Darnold better, but this is a pretty good consolation prize.  Yes, he could be a bust. He could also be really good, and you'd probably be able to keep those other picks. We'll know a little more when someone neutral officially measures his height. Most people seem to think it's right about 6' even.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

They still took 2 QBs by the end of day 2 in the same draft. The Patriots continue to pick QBs early in the draft even with Brady. QBs are valuable trade chips, especially if they are young and unproven. The 49ers most likely won't pick one at the top of the draft, but that's not a sure thing, they may value the idea of having 2 guys who could battle for the spot in camp. It's not like they are going to be paying Garapollo 20+ mil a year to see what they have in him.

That was a day 3 pick. They are going to be paying Jimmy G that. That’s the point. They either have to tag him or sign him to a long-term deal. He’s going to get that on the open market.

[Wayne Arnold]

6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I can’t see the Bills having confidence in a guy coming off of one of the worst injuries ever that didn’t produce at a level of Tyrod prior. He’s a good shot for a team like Seattle behind Wilson. No one is entering next season with Bridgewater as a #1.

 

I'm willing to bet against your last sentence.

 

If the Bills are smart they sign Bridgewater in free agency and choose a QB in the first.

[apuszczalowski]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That was a day 3 pick. They are going to be paying Jimmy G that. That’s the point. They either have to tag him or sign him to a long-term deal. He’s going to get that on the open market.

He is not going to be making $20 mil on a long term deal on the open market, he has barely seen the field since being drafted. At least Osweiler started a bunch of games and helps a team into the playoffs where they went on to win a Superbowl.

[The Frankish Reich]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That was a day 3 pick. They are going to be paying Jimmy G that. That’s the point. They either have to tag him or sign him to a long-term deal. He’s going to get that on the open market.

That's what's so weird to me about not letting Jimmy play. Would it make sense to franchise tag him and pay him that huge salary next year without getting a good sample of what he can actually do when starting for 5 or 6 games?  They have the cap room to do it, but even if they do, then what?  They'll get into that Kirk Cousins situation in the following year.

2 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

He is not going to be making $20 mil on a long term deal on the open market, he has barely seen the field since being drafted. At least Osweiler started a bunch of games and helps a team into the playoffs where they went on to win a Superbowl.

I think you misunderestimate the QB frenzy.

[billsfan_34]

3 hours ago, jrober38 said:

To move from where we'll be picking into the top 4 will cost a fortune. It will gut the roster of talent for years to come and shouldn't be something we're considering. 

^this^ The bills need to stand fast this team has holes all over the place and giving all our stock away will be too hefty a price for one guy.

[Kirby Jackson]

13 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

I'm willing to bet against your last sentence.

 

If the Bills are smart they sign Bridgewater in free agency and choose a QB in the first.

I’m in on that. I could see Bridgewater starting again at some point but he’s going to have to get on the field and play well before anyone is handing him a job. I don’t see him getting on the field this year.

[Tatonka68]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

Lots of good franchise QBs weren't the #1 overall pick. 

 

The notion that we need the "best" prospect is flawed. 

Enough with dumpster diving for a QB already, that notion caused the last 17 years.

[Kirby Jackson]

13 minutes ago, apuszczalowski said:

He is not going to be making $20 mil on a long term deal on the open market, he has barely seen the field since being drafted. At least Osweiler started a bunch of games and helps a team into the playoffs where they went on to win a Superbowl.

Glennon got $15M last year and NO ONE thinks that he has a better chance. Brock got $18M and sucks. Jimmy G will be getting AT LEAST $16M and with teams that love him (like the Browns) I’d bet closer to $20M. That’s the market.

12 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

That's what's so weird to me about not letting Jimmy play. Would it make sense to franchise tag him and pay him that huge salary next year without getting a good sample of what he can actually do when starting for 5 or 6 games?  They have the cap room to do it, but even if they do, then what?  They'll get into that Kirk Cousins situation in the following year.

I think you misunderestimate the QB frenzy.

It’s strange for sure. They either have a tag and trade deal worked out (maybe with Cleveland) or they are trying to keep the price down. There isn’t another scenario. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

3 hours ago, joesixpack said:

Who’s the joker that voted Jackson 

Eric Wood.

[Wayne Arnold]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m in on that. I could see Bridgewater starting again at some point but he’s going to have to get on the field and play well before anyone is handing him a job. I don’t see him getting on the field this year.

 

The only reason he's not starting for the Vikings right now is because Keenum is playing out of his mind.

[The Frankish Reich]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Glennon got $15M last year and NO ONE thinks that he has a better chance. Brock got $18M and sucks. Jimmy G will be getting AT LEAST $16M and with teams that love him (like the Browns) I’d bet closer to $20M. That’s the market.

It’s strange for sure. They either have a tag and trade deal worked out (maybe with Cleveland) or they are trying to keep the price down. There isn’t another scenario. 

The tag and trade secret deal would make sense. I hadn't thought of that ... in that case, they'd still be in the running for Kyle Shanahan's fave Kirk Cousins, plus Beathard will have a chance to prove (or disprove) that he's a keeper as a backup.

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, Wayne Arnold said:

 

The only reason he's not starting for the Vikings right now is because Keenum is playing out of his mind.

Yes

[boater]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that this is important thing to add here. Draft Trade Value Chart

Yep. Important.

I translated to the first round to chart data so people can observe the slope of the curve, decay of value, as the picks progress.

Chart tells that "there are first round picks and then there are real first round picks." The chart also lends semi-credence to those who complain that the Bills can't even lose the right way, always ending up 8-8 with a pick in the teens. I say semi-credence, because I believe tanking introduces a locker room culture cancer worse than the benefit (think of a hockey team we know).

 

Anyway, I'm opposed to the Bills trade-packaging any first rounders to move up. It's nothing but car salesman's screw job. If they can't get a good QB with the picks they hold, then they should go free agent and pay the big money---use their first rounders for positions of need, which there are many. 

 

If the Bills trade away picks and end up with the next Ryan Lief, they loose the fan base.

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, The Frankish Reich said:

The tag and trade secret deal would make sense. I hadn't thought of that ... in that case, they'd still be in the running for Kyle Shanahan's fave Kirk Cousins, plus Beathard will have a chance to prove (or disprove) that he's a keeper as a backup.

Maybe that’s why the Browns pulled the plug on the McCarron deal? Maybe they made a deal with SF that they’d offer the same thing that they offered for AJ (a 2nd and a 3rd)?

[The Frankish Reich]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Maybe that’s why the Browns pulled the plug on the McCarron deal? Maybe they made a deal with SF that they’d offer the same thing that they offered for AJ (a 2nd and a 3rd)?

I love conspiracy theories.  When the hidden conspiracy explains all sorts of otherwise inexplicable phenomena, I'm even ready to believe them ...

4 minutes ago, boater said:

Yep. Important.

I translated to the first round to chart data so people can observe the slope of the curve, decay of value, as the picks progress.

Chart tells that "there are first round picks and then there are real first round picks." The chart also lends semi-credence to those who complain that the Bills can't even lose the right way, always ending up 8-8 with a pick in the teens. I say semi-credence, because I believe tanking introduces a locker room culture cancer worse than the benefit (think of a hockey team we know).

 

Anyway, I'm opposed to the Bills trade-packaging any first rounders to move up. It's nothing but car salesman's screw job. If they can't get a good QB with the picks they hold, then they should go free agent and pay the big money---use their first rounders for positions of need, which there are many. 

 

If the Bills trade away picks and end up with the next Ryan Lief, they loose the fan base.

If not making the playoffs in the current millennium isn't enough, I'm not sure what the Bills would have to do to lose the fan base. From a wider perspective, they're certainly not growing the fan base. The Bills have no real national following (it's soooo long ago I can't really remember if they did during the 1990s glory years?), and they'll never get one if they keep losing in a completely ignorable way (7-9, etc., etc.); I can't see how one or two 2-14s would really make a difference at this point.