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CanadianFan

Playoff Race

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Here are the standings:

  AFC Team W L
1 Pittsburgh Steelers 7 2
2 New England Patriots 7 2
3 Kansas City Chiefs 6 3
4 Tennessee Titans 6 3
5 Jacksonville Jaguars 6 3
6 Buffalo Bills 5 4
7 Baltimore Ravens 4 5
8 Oakland Raiders 4 5
9 Miami Dolphins 4 5
10 New York Jets 4 6
11 Houston Texans 3 6
12 Cincinnati Bengals 3 6
13 Los Angeles Chargers 3 6
14 Denver Broncos 3 6
15 Indianapolis Colts 3 7
16 Cleveland Browns 0

9

 

Looking at their play, and the rest of their schedules, top 5 gets through to playoffs. So our competition is for the last playoff spot, the 6th seed. Here's how that 6th seed competition looks like. I considered every team except Browns. Where I think it's a fairly even match, I gave each team a half win. Not many teams got half wins. Here's how it all falls out for me. Based on remaining schedule, Ravens are going to get that 6th seed. Their schedule is way easier and it's unfortunate.

 

BOTTOM LINE: WE HAVE THE 2ND BEST PROBABILITY FOR GETTING THE 6TH SEED. There's still HOPE.

 

    Team Current Win Total                                  
Week# Date Bills 5 Ravens 4 Raiders 4 Dolphins 4 Jets 4 Texans 3 Bengals 3 Chargers 3 Broncos 3 Colts 3
                                           
11 Nov-19 BUF @ LAC 0.5 BAL @ GB 1 NE @ OAK 0 TB @ MIA 1 BYE   ARI @ HOU 0 CIN @ DEN 0 BUF @ LAC 0.5 CIN @ DEN 1 BYE  
12 Nov-26 BUF @ KC 0 HOU @ BAL 1 DEN @ OAK 1 MIA @ NE 0 CAR @ NYJ 0 HOU @ BAL 0 CLE @ CIN 1 LAC @ DAL 0 DEN @ OAK 0 TEN @ IND 0
13 Dec-03 NE @ BUF 0 DET @ BAL 0.5 NYG @ OAK 1 DEN @ MIA 0.5 KC @ NYJ 0 HOU @ TEN 0 PIT @ CIN 0.5 CLE @ LAC 1 DEN @ MIA 0.5 IND @ JAX 0
14 Dec-10 IND @ BUF 1 BAL @ PIT 0 OAK @ KC 0 NE @ MIA 0 NYJ @ DEN 0 SF @ HOU 1 CHI @ CIN 1 WAS @ LAC 0.5 NYJ @ DEN 1 IND @ BUF 0
15 Dec-17 MIA @ BUF 1 BAL @ CLE 1 DAL @ OAK 0.5 MIA @ BUF 0 NYJ @ NO 0 HOU @ JAX 0 CIN @ MIN 0 LAC @ KC 0 DEN @ IND 1 DEN @ IND 0
16 Dec-24 BUF @ NE 0 IND @ BAL 1 OAK @ PHI 0 MIA @ KC 0 LAC @ NYJ 0 PIT @ HOU 0 DET @ CIN 1 LAC @ NYJ 1 DEN @ WAS 0.5 IND @ BAL 0
17 Dec-31 BUF @ MIA 0 CIN @ BAL 1 OAK @ LAC 0.5 BUF @ MIA 1 NYJ @ NE 0 HOU @ IND 1 CIN @ BAL 0 OAK @ LAC 0.5 KC @ DEN 0 HOU @ IND 0.5
                                           
Posssible Win Totals 7.5   9.5   7   6.5   4   5   6.5   6.5   7   3.5

 

Urgh. Excel tables don't work.

Here's the table as a picture file.

 

yoDWYJ7.jpg

Edited by CanadianFan

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1 minute ago, Tatonka68 said:

I would rather race to get a Franchise QB and not a a one and done playoff loss. 

 

Sixth seed most likely plays Jacksonville in the first round.  Not 100% sure that would be one and done.

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Just now, row_33 said:

we are barely halfway through the season and you want to spend hours on this?

 

 

It took a few minutes that's all. And it's pretty easy to see where teams are now. 

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Sorry, lost in the jumble of numbers is the real message now in bold letters:

 

we have the 2nd best chance to get the 6th seed. It's still in our grasp.

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Im sorry but im not up for having the drought broken only

to have some horrible playoff record set against this team.

Just no.

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Multiple times I've seen people just handing Baltimore wins because the rest of their schedule looks easy. When did Baltimore get good? Fun fact, they haven't. GB may be a toss up, but I expect the Packers to win that one, even without Rogers. Houston could truly go either way. No way Baltimore beats Detroit or Pittsburgh. And, don't ever underestimate the challenge of a division game, especially in the AFC North. I see a Cincy win in week 17. Cleveland looks like a win for them, but again a division game with an improving Kizer and some players coming back for them. Also, an improving Colts team just gave Pittsburgh all they could handle and beat the Texans the week before, yet a mediocre Ravens team is just going to steamroll them?

 

I say Ravens finish 8-8 at best, more likely 7-9

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How do you chalk up a victory for Baltimore playing on the road in GB? That's a toss up if ever I saw one. The Ravens have won 1 game in their past 4. That's not a team that can get easy victories on the road, no matter who they are playing. Hell, it's not a team that can get easy victories at home either, except vs. CLE.

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41 minutes ago, DisplacedBillsFan said:

Multiple times I've seen people just handing Baltimore wins because the rest of their schedule looks easy. When did Baltimore get good? Fun fact, they haven't. GB may be a toss up, but I expect the Packers to win that one, even without Rogers. Houston could truly go either way. No way Baltimore beats Detroit or Pittsburgh. And, don't ever underestimate the challenge of a division game, especially in the AFC North. I see a Cincy win in week 17. Cleveland looks like a win for them, but again a division game with an improving Kizer and some players coming back for them. Also, an improving Colts team just gave Pittsburgh all they could handle and beat the Texans the week before, yet a mediocre Ravens team is just going to steamroll them?

 

I say Ravens finish 8-8 at best, more likely 7-9

 

8 minutes ago, MDH said:

How do you chalk up a victory for Baltimore playing on the road in GB? That's a toss up if ever I saw one. The Ravens have won 1 game in their past 4. That's not a team that can get easy victories on the road, no matter who they are playing. Hell, it's not a team that can get easy victories at home either, except vs. CLE.

I know. It just says they have the easier schedule. GB is tough but Ravens have the D to stop them easy. Question is on the offensive side, if they can get enough points. 

 

even at 7-9 they tie with us and got the tie breakers in conference wins, etc. 

Edited by CanadianFan

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Bills

Ravens

Raiders

battling for the Final Spot.

 

Bills I have at 8 wins going into Final 2 weeks

Raiders I have at 7-8 Wins going into Final 2 Weeks

Ravens I have at 7-8 wins going into Final 2 Weeks

 

No idea, but it seems like it's going to be tight.  Or maybe not.  Who knows.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, CanadianFan said:

 

I know. It just says they have the easier schedule. GB is tough but Ravens have the D to stop them easy. Question is on the offensive side, if they can get enough points. 

 

even at 7-9 they tie with us and got the tie breakers in conference wins, etc. 

 

No doubt they have an easier schedule, I just don't see how, according to your own process, you didn't give them .5 games in many of those contests. I still think they end up in the playoffs I just question how you applied your methodology. GB (with Hundley at QB) just beat CHI on the road. The same CHI team that went into BAL and got a W. That's not a fairly even match? Same goes for the CIN game.

 

I think you're overestimating how good this Ravens team is.

4 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

Bills

Ravens

Raiders

battling for the Final Spot.

 

Bills I have at 8 wins going into Final 2 weeks

Raiders I have at 7-8 Wins going into Final 2 Weeks

Ravens I have at 7-8 wins going into Final 2 Weeks

 

No idea, but it seems like it's going to be tight.  Or maybe not.  Who knows.

 

 

 

Raiders are done. 5 losses and games vs. NE, KC, DAL and PHI remaining on the schedule. For some reason, people think the Raiders of last year are suddenly going to show up.

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36 minutes ago, MDH said:

 

No doubt they have an easier schedule, I just don't see how, according to your own process, you didn't give them .5 games in many of those contests. I still think they end up in the playoffs I just question how you applied your methodology. GB (with Hundley at QB) just beat CHI on the road. The same CHI team that went into BAL and got a W. That's not a fairly even match? Same goes for the CIN game.

 

I think you're overestimating how good this Ravens team is.

 

Raiders are done. 5 losses and games vs. NE, KC, DAL and PHI remaining on the schedule. For some reason, people think the Raiders of last year are suddenly going to show up.

 

So do your own math. That's what the table is for. Who ends up with the 6th seed?

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3 minutes ago, CanadianFan said:

 

So do your own math. That's what the table is for. Who ends up with the 6th seed?

Bills IF they can beat the chargers. That wc spot is in the line this weekend. They better play like the season is on the line.

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47 minutes ago, MDH said:

 

No doubt they have an easier schedule, I just don't see how, according to your own process, you didn't give them .5 games in many of those contests. I still think they end up in the playoffs I just question how you applied your methodology. GB (with Hundley at QB) just beat CHI on the road. The same CHI team that went into BAL and got a W. That's not a fairly even match? Same goes for the CIN game.

 

I think you're overestimating how good this Ravens team is.

 

Raiders are done. 5 losses and games vs. NE, KC, DAL and PHI remaining on the schedule. For some reason, people think the Raiders of last year are suddenly going to show up.

4 minutes ago, Marty McFly said:

Bills IF they can beat the chargers. That wc spot is in the line this weekend. They better play like the season is on the line.

 

Basically this weekend is key to watch Ravens. If we beat Chargers and Ravens lose to Packers we improve our chances at this. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Tatonka68 said:

I would rather race to get a Franchise QB and not a a one and done playoff loss. 

Agreed....give me 5-11 baby!!!!

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5 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Agreed....give me 5-11 baby!!!!

No thanks. Get rid of the ridiculous drought hanging over this organization. Enough picks to get a QB.

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3 hours ago, Tatonka68 said:

I would rather race to get a Franchise QB and not a a one and done playoff loss. 

 

Yes because the only way to get a franchise QB is to have a record in the Top 10.

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Ahh!  I love this time of year.  Turkey in the oven and the smell of those playoff calculators cooking on the stove.


Then we play New England and the whole thing gets torched to a gooey mess!  Another season is officially TOAST!

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11 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Ahh!  I love this time of year.  Turkey in the oven and the smell of those playoff calculators cooking on the stove.


Then we play New England and the whole thing gets torched to a gooey mess!  Another season is officially TOAST!

 

it goes to the Bills needing to sweep the last 6 games and have 36 games go their way (half of them requiring a Browns to win at Foxboro fantasy level), then the third level of tiebreaker

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I've always said that much of this comes down to when you play who and what it means to both teams.  If the Bills are still alive (and I doubt they will be) in Week Seventeen in Miami, then I'm betting that the Dolphins are already toast and will put up very little fight.  What will be interesting is where NE is in Week Sixteen in relation to clinching Home Field, etc.

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20 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

it goes to the Bills needing to sweep the last 6 games and have 36 games go their way (half of them requiring a Browns to win at Foxboro fantasy level), then the third level of tiebreaker

It takes no such thing. They have the sixth spot right now. Wins against the Chargers, Miami twice and the Colts and they shoudl get it.

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42 minutes ago, JM2009 said:

It takes no such thing. They have the sixth spot right now. Wins against the Chargers, Miami twice and the Colts and they shoudl get it.

 

Of course... was there a punch line there?

 

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