If the Colts really suck, would they trade Luck to Buffalo?

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

I think you are incorrect. It is called dead money for a reason. It applies to trading and/or cutting a player.

 

Teams have to eat it all in one year or spread it over 2 seasons if the player is designated as a June 1st cut (I think.)

 

...good call bro...you are correct.....

[BobbyC81]

I would much rather see the Bills sign Cousins as a FA, no matter the cost, than give up a bunch of picks for Luck.

It sounds like about the only way Cousins doesn't sign with the Niners next offseason is that SF is found guilty of tampering and is not allowed to sign him.

[SoTier]

The focus on which team will finish DFL in the NFL this year has focused mostly on the Jets.

 

But is there a WORSE roster than the Colts if Andrew Luck is not on the field?

 

Suppose Luck can't come back early enough from his shoulder surgery to help the team compete for a playoff spot..........would they shelve him early and go for that #1 overall pick again?

 

And in a scenario where the first 2-3 picks were considered franchise QB's...........would the Colts then trade Andrew Luck to get a pile of draft picks and long term cap saving to try to re-build their roster and use that #1 pick on Darnold or Chosen Rosen?

 

Just a thought I haven't seen kicked around.....but if the Bills play Jauron-ball and land outside of the top 5 picks........it's not really THAT unrealistic of a scenario that they could be a good trade partner with Indy in a situation where other QB-desperate teams like the Jets and Browns get their QB satisfaction at the top of the draft.

 

Long shot but something to think about.........especially because there is just a very weird feel around what is going on in Indy.........it feels strangely like Manning-neck 2.0.

 

And if you are the Colts.......and your tank job falls short of completion.......your consolation prize is high picks to pair up with Luck in an increasingly competitive division.

 

 

 

You've been a Bills fan too long because you're beginning to think like the bean counters who have been really running the team for the last seventeen years. Teams, at least teams that are remotely interested in winning football games, don't trade away young franchise QBs unless there's something seriously wrong with them, although I could see the Bills doing something that stupid to save a few millions in salary in the short term. After all, we all know that QBs are almost as easily replaceable as DBs, RBs, and WRs.

 

FYI ... Half of all QBs drafted in the first round since 2000 have failed. Moreover, most drafts will yield only 1 franchise QB. A "good" draft will yield 1 franchise QB and 1 or maybe even 2 competent QBs on a par with Flacco, Dalton or Tannehill. Another problem is that it takes about 3 years to sift through the dirt to find the 1 who's a diamond. It will be interesting to see if Dak Prescott continues to have success because many times young QBs who look good as rookies/first year starters crash and burn over the long haul. Trent Edwards, Christian Ponder, and Colin Kaepernick all come to mind.

[oldmanfan]

 

You've been a Bills fan too long because you're beginning to think like the bean counters who have been really running the team for the last seventeen years. Teams, at least teams that are remotely interested in winning football games, don't trade away young franchise QBs unless there's something seriously wrong with them, although I could see the Bills doing something that stupid to save a few millions in salary in the short term. After all, we all know that QBs are almost as easily replaceable as DBs, RBs, and WRs.

 

FYI ... Half of all QBs drafted in the first round since 2000 have failed. Moreover, most drafts will yield only 1 franchise QB. A "good" draft will yield 1 franchise QB and 1 or maybe even 2 competent QBs on a par with Flacco, Dalton or Tannehill. Another problem is that it takes about 3 years to sift through the dirt to find the 1 who's a diamond. It will be interesting to see if Dak Prescott continues to have success because many times young QBs who look good as rookies/first year starters crash and burn over the long haul. Trent Edwards, Christian Ponder, and Colin Kaepernick all come to mind.

Two different owners the past 17 years. Welcome to reality.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

 

 

That isn't stranger. It just isn't.

 

The Pats got rid of Bledsoe because they had Brady, who had already proved himself as a guy you can win a Super Bowl with. I suppose if Indy won a Super Bowl this year with whoever is Luck's backup then you could argue that getting rid of Bledsoe was stranger. Till then, not even close.

 

 

I will tell you why it's stranger.

 

In March of 2001 Drew Bledsoe signed the richest contract in the history of the NFL.

 

So it's safe to say that on the eve of the season.....the same time frame as right now......... it was totally inconceivable that a healthy young stud QB in a league with even fewer top QB's than today...........and a guy who Bob Kraft loves like a son.......would be traded to a DIVISION RIVAL 6 months later.

 

I get your point but you are looking at it in retrospect instead of in context.

 

FWIW.......that fall I mentioned that Bledsoe could end up in Buffalo and fellow fans thought I was out of my mind because Brady was just a rag-armed nobody on a lucky streak.

 

At that point.......by no means had anyone even publicly CONSIDERED he could be traded.....it seemed an impossibility because of the dearth of top QB's and the cap ramifications of that new contract.

 

But I just had a feel about Donahoe.........he wanted a big, strong armed QB and Bledsoe was his prototype..........and it turned out that was EXACTLY on point when he was watching Bledsoe throw the ball in warmups at Heinz field prior to the AFC championship game.

 

I'm not even advocating the Bills trading for Luck........it's more about being a blockbuster move that I could absolutely see the Bills and Colts doing if things fell as I laid out........and I CAN see them falling that way......it's no stretch that those teams could finish the season thusly.

 

It would be both Coltsy and Billsy.

Edited September 6, 2017 by #BADOL

[mannc]

Could definitely see them picking between 8-11 and being SOL for a top QB.

 

 

I just don't understand why everyone thinks drafting 8-11 this year puts the Bills "SOL for a top QB". It looks very much like there will be 5-6 QBs who will carry first round grades this year. In 2017, when there were only three such QBs, two of them were available at 10, and a large segment of TBD was outraged that we did not pick one. So how is that in what is looking like an fantastic QB draft, the Bills will be "SOL" if they aren't picking in the top five? And the above doesn't even contemplate the possibility of using the extra first to move up into the top five, which I don't think will be necessary or advisable.

Edited September 7, 2017 by mannc

[oldmanfan]

I just don't understand why everyone thinks drafting 8-11 this year puts the Bills "SOL for a top QB". It looks very much like there will be 5-6 QBs who will carry first round grades this year. In 2017, when there were only three such QBs, two of them were available at 10, and a large segment of TBD was outraged that we did not pick one. So how is that in what is looking like an fantastic QB draft, the Bills will be "SOL" if they aren't picking in the top five? And the above doesn't even contemplate the possibility of using the extra first to move up into the top five, which I don't think will be necessary or advisable.

Good points.

[BADOLBILZ]

I just don't understand why everyone thinks drafting 8-11 this year puts the Bills "SOL for a top QB". It looks very much like there will be 5-6 QBs who will carry first round grades this year. In 2017, when there were only three such QBs, two of them were available at 10, and a large segment of TBD was outraged that we did not pick one. So how is that in what is looking like an fantastic QB draft, the Bills will be "SOL" if they aren't picking in the top five? And the above doesn't even contemplate the possibility of using the extra first to move up into the top five, which I don't think will be necessary or advisable.

 

 

The Bills didn't pass on a QB last year to settle on the 4th or 5th best one in the 2018 draft.

 

You can speculate that they didn't like the available QB options in round 1 last year but they didn't get that pick to being sitting in the catbird seat at #24 overall.

[JaCrispy]

I just don't understand why everyone thinks drafting 8-11 this year puts the Bills "SOL for a top QB". It looks very much like there will be 5-6 QBs who will carry first round grades this year. In 2017, when there were only three such QBs, two of them were available at 10, and a large segment of TBD was outraged that we did not pick one. So how is that in what is looking like an fantastic QB draft, the Bills will be "SOL" if they aren't picking in the top five? And the above doesn't even contemplate the possibility of using the extra first to move up into the top five, which I don't think will be necessary or advisable.

I believe Rudolph will go top 5...if Rosen declares, I believe he will go top 5 as well...I could see Falk going between 10-15 if Rosen declares...if Rosen stays in school, I believe Falk will go sooner...Mayfield is the wild card- the talent is there but he was arrested and resisted arrest...Darnold will stay in school imo...it's early, i know...just some thoughts of how I think it could go down.

[mannc]

 

 

The Bills didn't pass on a QB last year to settle on the 4th or 5th best one in the 2018 draft.

 

You can speculate that they didn't like the available QB options in round 1 last year but they didn't get that pick to being sitting in the catbird seat at #24 overall.

Here's the thing: It's not an exact science. In a draft where there are 6 first round-caliber QBs, there probably won't be a consensus as to how those six rank, just as there was no real consensus this year among Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson. While there might be one guy who is head and shoulders above the rest, it's likely that teams will disagree about where those others rank and how high they should go. And if history is any guide, there might well be someone who goes in the third or fourth round who has a better career than most of the guys who go in round one. Bottom line: The idea that the Bills are screwed if they don't pick in the top five is utter nonsense in a draft like 2018.

Edited September 7, 2017 by mannc

[BADOLBILZ]

Here's the thing: It's not an exact science. In a draft where there are 6 first round-caliber QBs, there probably won't be a consensus as to how those six rank, just as there was no real consensus this year among Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson. While there might be one guy who is head and shoulders above the rest, it's likely that teams will disagree about where those others rank and how high they should go. And if history is any guide, there might well be someone who goes in the third or fourth round who has a better career than most of the guys who go in round one. Bottom line: The idea that the Bills are screwed if they don't pick in the top five is utter nonsense in a draft like 2018.

 

There is usually a pretty strong consensus on draft day.

 

Doesn't mean the order is right..........the Cowboys and Seahawks were just foolish and lucky to pass on Dak and Russ multiple times if they knew how good they were.

 

But until proven otherwise the Bills will be Billsy.

 

They have never simply picked a QB with their top first round pick in any draft.........always hedging their bets and trying to cheat the system at QB........so maybe they settle for the 5th or 6th best QB.......after trading back at least once, of course.

[mannc]

 

There is usually a pretty strong consensus on draft day.

 

And that consensus is usually wrong.

[BADOLBILZ]

And that consensus is usually wrong.

 

1. Eli

2. Rivers

3. Ben

4. JP

Who was the 5th again?

 

t

[mannc]

 

1. Eli

2. Rivers

3. Ben

4. JP

Who was the 5th again?

 

t

Schaub. You proved my point: Roethlisberger at 11 turned out better than Eli or Rivers at 1 and 4 (although all were/are good, obviously).

[Putin]

I wouldn't put anything past Irsay. It sounds crazy, but .....Seriously what have they won with Luck?

All I know is without Luck they had 1st overall pick , Luck ( rookie year , right? ) back to playoffs ,

[mannc]

 

1. Eli

2. Rivers

3. Ben

4. JP

Who was the 5th again?

 

t

Go look back at the 2004 Draft. Eli, Rivers and Roethlisberger are all still going strong with their original teams, and every single non-QB (except Larry Fitzgerald) has been OOF seemingly forever. It supports your argument to draft a QB with your first pick every year until you find the right one. Bills fans bemoan the fact that in 2004, ol' Whitey was not able to trade up to pick Big Ben, but Jacksonville and Houston (two teams that have been at least as QB-starved as the Bills) both picked before Pittsburgh and both passed on him, for Reggie Williams and Dunta Robinson, respectively. In 2012, Jacksonville passed on Russ Wilson for a punter in round 3.

[JohnC]

 

 

The Bills didn't pass on a QB last year to settle on the 4th or 5th best one in the 2018 draft.

 

You can speculate that they didn't like the available QB options in round 1 last year but they didn't get that pick to being sitting in the catbird seat at #24 overall.

Why wouldn't the Bills prefer one of the top 4 or 5 qbs in this draft if the Bills felt that any one of them would be better than last year's prospects? The Bills have draft ammo to move up or stay in place with the benefit of using the extra picks to add an infusion of talent.

 

If the Colts offered Luck up for most of our picks and I knew that he would enter the season healthy I would give up most of the draft picks. I would then for that year be very involved in the mid-range free agent market to bolster the roster.

 

In my view Luck is one of the best qbs in the game. His albatross is playing on a limited roster. While Alphadog is looking for reasons to dismiss this grand talent I would salivate at the possibility of acquiring him. However, it is a pipe dream. The Colts may be a stupid organization but not stupid enough to get rid of him in his prime years.

[Coach Tuesday]

In my view Luck is one of the best qbs in the game. His albatross is playing on a limited roster. While Alphadog is looking for reasons to dismiss this grand talent I would salivate at the possibility of acquiring him. However, it is a pipe dream. The Colts may be a stupid organization but not stupid enough to get rid of him in his prime years.

 

I guess the flip side of that is, if the Bills give up an entire draft for Luck, he comes to another team with depleted talent...

[JohnC]

 

I guess the flip side of that is, if the Bills give up an entire draft for Luck, he comes to another team with depleted talent...

As I said in my prior post one way to partially compensate for the loss of picks in that year is to emphasize acquiring mid-range free agent picks to help bolster the roster. But after that initial year you will then have a full complement of picks. For the sake of arguing if you draft a high end qb prospect its probable that it is going to take a year or two to acclimate to the pro game. That isn't an issue with Luck.

[BADOLBILZ]

Go look back at the 2004 Draft. Eli, Rivers and Roethlisberger are all still going strong with their original teams, and every single non-QB (except Larry Fitzgerald) has been OOF seemingly forever. It supports your argument to draft a QB with your first pick every year until you find the right one. Bills fans bemoan the fact that in 2004, ol' Whitey was not able to trade up to pick Big Ben, but Jacksonville and Houston (two teams that have been at least as QB-starved as the Bills) both picked before Pittsburgh and both passed on him, for Reggie Williams and Dunta Robinson, respectively. In 2012, Jacksonville passed on Russ Wilson for a punter in round 3.

 

 

That's the only statistically sound way find a QB in the draft.........putting all your eggs in a one-season tank basket every time you reach the end of your emotional rope puts enormous pressure on the evaluation process and losing is a hard habit to break.

 

 

The Bills wouldn't have gotten their QB that way in 2004..........but they'd have gotten the best of the bunch.......Aaron Rodgers.......the next year with the pick they dealt to Dallas to move UP to get JP Losman.