Please Critique these QBs in 1st Round since 2009

[WideRightRevenge]

So what below shows is a couple of things ... last year aside (still too soon For Goff and Wentz) .. but unless you have the overall #1 (Winston, Luck, Newton, Stafford --- no SB wins between them) ... you don't have a great chance of landing a NFL caliber (long career QB in round 1) .. that's a 8 year lookback ... that's 19 QB's prior to last year in Round 1 (9 of which in top 10 picks) ... with the hype train in full motion those years as it is every year with QB's ... 9 of 19 are starters ... so less than 50% hit rate and 6 of 19 no longer playing ... 33% basically.

Contrary ... I'll take the QB's 2nd round and beyond in the last 8 years ... Carr, Wilson, Prescott, Cousins although greater than 8 years (some guy named Brady in the 6th) .. another guy named Brees. My point is unless we trade to #1 and get OUR GUY ... then not sure what all the craziness is about in the 2018 QB class .. see list below from WalterFootball.com .. yes I like Darnold and maybe Allen if in fact Big Ben comparison is true .. but again unless we grab the #1 (which I don't think we will) other teams will grab those guys before us.

As below clearly illustrates ... every draft is a crap shoot ... guys much smarter than all of us football wise have crapped the bed on draft day.

2016:

1. Jared Goff, California, Rams (Does anyone on the Bills really want Goff??)

2. Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, Eagles

26. Paxton Lynch, Memphis, Broncos

___

2015:

1. Jameis Winston, Florida State, Buccaneers

2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Titans

___

2014: A BANNER YEAR

3. Blake Bortles, Central Florida, Jaguars

22. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, Browns (no longer in league)

32. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville, Vikings

___

2013:

16. EJ Manuel, Florida State, Bills (Enough Said)

___

2012:

1. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Colts

2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Redskins (really)

8. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M, Dolphins

22. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Browns (really x2)

___

2011:

1. Cam Newton, Auburn, Panthers

8. Jake Locker, Washington, Titans (no longer in league)

10. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Jaguars (3rd team)

12. Christian Ponder, Florida State, Vikings (clipboard holder)

___

2010:

1. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, Rams

25. Tim Tebow, Florida, Broncos (no longer in league)

___

2009:

1. Matthew Stafford, Georgia, Lions

5. Mark Sanchez, USC, Jets (butt fumble)

17. Josh Freeman, Kansas State, Buccaneers (no longer in league)

Conversely here are the preview of round1 2018 QB's per

• Sam Darnold**, QB, USC
  Height: 6-4. Weight: 225.
  Projected 40 Time: 4.78.
  Projected Round (2018): 1.
  7/17/17: Darnold was very impressive as a redshirt freshman in 2016. Sources say that while they haven't studied Darnold extensively, he jumped out at them as being a potentially special quarterback. Darnold completed 67 percent of his passes in 2016 for 3,086 yards with 31 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He has size, a strong-enough arm and accuracy, plus led USC on a nine-game winning streak to end last season. There is buzz of him being a No. 1-overall talent at the position. Team sources say that the early feedback is that Darnold has good intangibles as well.
• image: http://walterfootball.com/college/Wyoming_logo.gif
• 
  

• Josh Allen*, QB, Wyoming
  Height: 6-5. Weight: 222.
  Projected 40 Time: 4.75.
  Projected Round (2018): 1-3.
  7/17/17: Allen became a discussed prospect late in the 2016 season, but he wisely decided to return to Wyoming. He has a good skill set, and some draft analysts were projecting him high in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft, but one general manager told WalterFootball.com that he had Allen as a third-day prospect and thought Allen should improve before going pro. Scouts from other teams say they think Allen is a top-of-the-draft prospect and compare him to Ben Roethlisberger, so Allen could end up being a love/hate prospect. There is no doubt that he has superb physical talent to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. In 2016, Allen completed 56 percent of his passes for 3,203 yards with 28 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.

• image: http://walterfootball.com/college/Louisville_logo.gif

  Lamar Jackson*, QB, Louisville
  Height: 6-3. Weight: 205.
  Projected 40 Time: 4.57.
  Projected Round (2018): 1-3.
  7/17/17: Jackson set college football on fire in 2016 while winning the Heisman Trophy. He was a massive point-producer for the Cardinals. Jackson completed 56 percent of his passes for 3,543 yards with 30 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the year. He also ran for 21 touchdowns and 1,571 yards while averaging six yards per carry.
  
  Jackson has a good athletic skill set, but will need to show more accuracy and pocket-passing skills in 2017. He also faces some size concerns and needs to add weight. Teams do feel that Jackson has a ton of athletic ability and upside to grow. He also has gotten good early reviews for his character, leadership and toughness.
• 
  

• image: http://walterfootball.com/college/UCLA_logo.gif

  Josh Rosen*, QB, UCLA
  Height: 6-4. Weight: 210.
  Projected 40 Time: 4.75.
  Projected Round (2018): 1-3.
  7/17/17: Rosen completed 59 percent of his passes for 1,915 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions over his six games of 2016 before being sidelined by shoulder surgery. Rosen is a pocket passer, but there is already talk that his character and leadership are lacking. Some team sources have told me that Rosen is disliked by a lot of teammates.
  
  Rosen had an impressive debut as a freshman, completing 60 percent of his passes for 3,670 yards with 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He showed off a powerful arm and the ability to be an NFL pocket passer. While Rosen has gotten a ton of hype, the same thing happened with Christian Hackenberg after his freshman season. Thus, Rosen still has more to prove as a junior to be a high first-rounder.
• 
  
• Read more at http://walterfootball.com/draft2018QB.php#QuCyfEcmsYR5lR2z.99

 

[C.Biscuit97]

It blows my mind how quickly folks dismiss qbs.

[KellyToughII]

We are getting a new QB in the draft next year, time to deal with it.

[26CornerBlitz]

They are loading up to get one of the top guys in the '18 draft. I'm not convinced that Lamar Jackson will be any kind of good QB at the NFL level.

[WideRightRevenge]

It blows my mind how quickly folks dismiss qbs.

 

From the prior 1st rounders (2016 and 2015 aside) given their limited time in the league .. who else on that list is "dismissed" dating back to 2009?

[C.Biscuit97]

 

From the prior 1st rounders (2016 and 2015 aside) given their limited time in the league .. who else on that list is "dismissed" dating back to 2009?

Everyone is just laughing at Goff because he didn't light up the NFL with Jeff Fisher and a midget as his number 1 wr.

[WideRightRevenge]

I think for good reason on Goff .. .especially considering what LA gave up to Tennessee to move to #1 from #15 ... and they could of chosen Goff or Wentz.

Edited August 13, 2017 by WideRightRevenge

[GunnerBill]

It is interesting on Goff and Wentz..... I have been back and done some film study on the two of them over this offseason. My conclusions were:-

 

- there is more good on Jared Goff's tape than I expected and than he I think gets credit for.

- there is more bad on Carson Wentz's tape than I expected and than the consensus view on him accepts.

 

Don't get me wrong I still liked Wentz's tape the better overall.... but a year in the consensus view seems to be "Wentz on his way to franchise status and Goff on his way to bust status" and the tape puts them much, much closer than that.

[WideRightRevenge]

It is interesting on Goff and Wentz..... I have been back and done some film study on the two of them over this offseason. My conclusions were:-

 

- there is more good on Jared Goff's tape than I expected and than he I think gets credit for.

- there is more bad on Carson Wentz's tape than I expected and than the consensus view on him accepts.

 

Don't get me wrong I still liked Wentz's tape the better overall.... but a year in the consensus view seems to be "Wentz on his way to franchise status and Goff on his way to bust status" and the tape puts them much, much closer than that.

 

Gunner your opinion is widely respected on this board and I appreciate your feedback ... what's your take on the 2018 QB class ... who do you like?

[GunnerBill]

 

Gunner your opinion is widely respected on this board and I appreciate your feedback ... what's your take on the 2018 QB class ... who do you like?

 

Ha... widely respected might be a stretch... but thank you for the compliment. I still haven't started on the 2018 class. I don't have as much time as some of the other amateur scouts on here so I don't tend to scout ahead in the way that Blokes and Bandit do. The only one of the consensus top 5 (Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Rudolph, Falk) that I have looked at as anything more than a casual TV viewer is Mason Rudolph who I had started on in case he declared in 2017. I liked the bits of him that I had seen but thought he made the right decision staying in school.

 

My usual scouting pattern is to identify 5 or 6 QBs at the start of the year and try and make sure that within the first 4 or 5 weeks of the college season I have watched each of them play on tv without watching as a scout. Then by half way through the season I start re-watching guys and focusing on the things that my instinct was they struggled with and seeing if that is a pattern and if it is can it be corrected? I don't assign a single grade on a Quarterback until the season has finished and I have had time (usually in February) to go through and do a thorough review. Before then I kind of have a rough ranking in my head of who I like best and who I don't like etc.... but the review process often changes that.

[JMF2006]

I thought Darnold is staying in school another year?

 

Lamar Jackson would be TT V2

 

So that leaves Rosen and his baggage or the Wyoming Cowboy Allen.

 

I think I need to watch some Wyoming football,this kid might be the Bills sleeper pick.

[SoTier]

They are loading up to get one of the top guys in the '18 draft. I'm not convinced that Lamar Jackson will be any kind of good QB at the NFL level.

 

What if the only "top guy" is another EJ Manuel?

[JMF2006]

 

What if the only "top guy" is another EJ Manuel?

Then you throw some money at Cousins if the FO billieves in him and draft 6 BPA's.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Everyone is just laughing at Goff because he didn't light up the NFL with Jeff Fisher and a midget as his number 1 wr.

 

He did look significantly worse than case keenum once he was given the reigns FWIW... With the same coaching and midget

Edited August 14, 2017 by dneveu

[JMF2006]

 

He did look significantly worse than case keenum once he was given the reigns FWIW... With the same coaching and midget

Keenum did a decent job as long as they were close or ahead.

 

When they got behind the wheels just fell off his game.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

So, if i'm understanding the purpose of this thread...we shouldn't TRY?

[teef]

there's many ways to get a qb. no matter what the method, it's always a gamble, but i can't believe that after all this time with lousy qb play, people are actually nervous about taking one. it has to happen. the bills may even be able to get their guy at the position they wind up with, and will still have a ton of high picks.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Keenum did a decent job as long as they were close or ahead.

 

When they got behind the wheels just fell off his game.

 

The team was 0-7 in games Goff started, he completed less than 55% of his passes, for about 155 yards per game. 5.3 YPA. Only cracked 200 yards twice- both times in games they lost by more than 3 TDs. 5 tds to 7 INTs. Only threw a TD in 3 of 7 starts. More sacks allowed than Keenum. Threw for 90 yards in a loss to San Francisco where he completed fewer than 50% of his passes.

 

He has to be much better, or they're going to cut their losses.

[BuffaloHokie13]

It's too early to tell on any of the guys from '15 or '16 imo.

 

Generally speaking, the highest rate of success involves picking your QB in the top 3 picks of the draft. That's my takeaway from recent history.

[GunnerBill]

It's too early to tell on any of the guys from '15 or '16 imo.

 

Generally speaking, the highest rate of success involves picking your QB in the top 3 picks of the draft. That's my takeaway from recent history.

 

The two guys from 2015 are studs. Both have already helped their teams to finish the right side of .500 in their second seasons..... Mariota and Winston are good. The question is are they Matt Stafford good or are they on their way to elite. That is still to be determined.