Roster Comparison Would Indicate Team Should Be Better

[jwhit34]

I don't really get the pessimism from some (many?) including the national media when it comes to evaluating the 2017 BIlls. If you compare this year to last year, they should be the same or better at almost every positional grouping:

 

POSITION

Quarterback '17 - Taylor 16 - Taylor Same

Running Backs '17 McCoy, Williams, Tolbert, DeMarco '16 - McCoy, Gillislee, Williams, Felton Same

Wide Receivers '17 Watkins, Jones, Boldin, Holmes, 2 others '16 - Watkins, Woods, Goodwin, Powell, 2 others Better

Tight Ends '17 - Clay, O'Leary, Thomas '16 - Clay, O'Leary Same

Offensive Line '17 - Glenn, Incognito, Wood, Miller, Mills/Dawkins '16 - Glenn, Incognito, Wood/Groy, Miller, Mills Same/Slightly Better

 

Front 7 '17 - K. Williams, Dareus, Hughes, S. Lawson, P. Brown, Alexander, Humber/Ragland '16 - K. Williams, Washington, Hughes, Z. Brown, P. Brown, Alexander, Spikes, Dareus part time Better

Secondary '17 - Darby, White, Hyde, Poyer, Seymour, Johnson '16 - Gilmore, Darby, Graham, Several S, Robey-Coleman CB Worse, S Better

 

Place Kicking '17 - Hauschka '16 - Carpenter Better

Punting '17 - Schmidt, Rehkow '16 - Schmidt Better

Coaching Staff '17 - McDermott et al '16 - Ryan et al Better

 

This is particularly the case when you factor in injuries, which admittedly you never know what is going to happen. But strictly based on a healthy team today, one would think they would be better. Some knock the depth on the team and defensively that is legitimate in the secondary and LB, but on offense they should have as good if not better depth (particularly at WR and the OL depth should be good).

Edited August 7, 2017 by jwhit34

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Kind of a word wall...

 

I think RB may be a push.. Depends on how dimarco is used vs. Felton. Gillislee is a pretty significant loss though and it was too late to really get a top-end replacement.

 

WRs are probably... a bit better especially with Boldin in the fold and watkins second surgery going better than the first (knock on wood)

 

Corners are worse - safeties are probably better considering williams was tentative, then hurt, and graham just wasn't good enough.

 

D-line playing more towards their strengths, Shaq seemingly healthy, dareus more focused. Could be good there.

 

LBs seem better from a depth perspective, but not super strong in the starting lineup. Z brown was a tad overrated in my opinion, but Humber is still a lineup downgrade IMO.

[hemma]

... and then there's coaching.

 

Not having Rob Ryan wondering around, making fresh muck daily, must be worth 2 wins.

[ChanOverChin]

The '17 Bills are definitely better on paper than the '16 Bills.

 

A full season from Watkins, Clay, Sh. Lawson and the addition of Bolden, Ragland, T. White, Hyde, Hodges will do wonders. Henderson and Dawkins will likely be upgrades over Mills.

 

Not to mention that Dennison's Denver offense is thought to be the best in the league and very well suited for a mobile QB like Taylor. It's also likely to spring McCoy and J. Williams for a lot of big gainers.

 

Frazier' 4-3 defense is also much better suited for the personnel that the Bills currently have. Hughes and Lawson were lost last year. This year they should thrive.

 

The biggest weakness is in the secondary. More help is needed there.

 

More depth at DE would also be nice behind Hughes, Lawson, and Alexander (who will ply DE in obvious passing situations. Are R. Davis and Yarbrough capable contributors??

[KDIGGZ]

DEPTH is the biggest issue. week 1 maybe we have a better team but how about week 10? also all new coaches, who knows what we are going to get plus the team has to learn the system

[Kemp]

The punting is better?

[KDIGGZ]

The punting is better?

probably based on Schmidt having a down year and OP expects him to bounce back. so far i guess he has been looking really good.

 

also secondary is much worse off. i would like to see them add a veteran safety

[BuffaloHokie13]

The punting is better?

It can't be much worse

[ChanOverChin]

I think that Hauschka will turn out to be a huge addition and will be a big weapon, esp. in very close games. We could steal 2-3 games because Hauschka is one of the top long range 2-3 kickers in the entire league.

 

The battle between Schmidt and rookie Rehkow rages on. Schmidt was one of the very worst punters in the league last year. Rehkow was the best punter to come out of college this year and has a big time leg. He could easily unseat Schmidt and be a nice improvement in the punting game.

[peterlaw]

Mike Gillislee is a massive loss. He scores TD's, moves the chains and doesn't fumble. McCoy can't take all the hand offs. Our TD production on the ground will be down significantly.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

It can't be much worse

 

31st in the league... i guess we could be a little worse.

Mike Gillislee is a massive loss. He scores TD's, moves the chains and doesn't fumble. McCoy can't take all the hand offs. Our TD production on the ground will be down significantly.

 

Yeah - its tough to speculate his loss without seeing how Jwilliams looks. Gillislee wasn't exactly lighting up the league before he came here, so i feel like you have to put it at least up in the air. I don't really like that Tolbert is being featured more than we expected, but hey... he's cheap, a good locker room guy, has good hands, is quicker than he looks, and has had some success in the past.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Mike Gillislee is a massive loss. He scores TD's, moves the chains and doesn't fumble. McCoy can't take all the hand offs. Our TD production on the ground will be down significantly.

We replaced MG's 8 TDs with Boldin's 8 TDs. Everyone on this board wants to see more passing TDs anyway...

[Dorkington]

Every year we talk about how our roster has improved, and every year we finish just about the same. At this point, I feel like we have the talent to be a playoff team, but it'll take good coaching for us to get there. We haven't had good coaching in a while.

[jwhit34]

I think Gillislee is a very overrated loss. The team ran for 2,630 yards, back up RB/FBs accounted for 681, of which Gillislee was 577 or 22% of total (JWilliams 94, Felton 13, Bush -3). If the backup RB/FB are 20% worse than Gillislee, the yards go down by 115 for the season or 8.5 yards a game.

 

The biggest question is the TDs. The fact that Karlos Williams led the team in rushing TDs (7) in '15 and then Gillislee had 8 last year (McCoy had 13) leads me to think that the non-McCoy TDs are at least as attributable to the OLine as the back. Think about how the Broncos for years seem to plug a different guy into the RB slot every year (and many years, multiple guys) and still got the same results.

 

If you are of the mindset that in today's NFL you don't spend high draft picks for RBs then backup RBs are even more interchangeable.

 

It is a valid point to say we seem to think the roster every year is better and the team finishes about the same.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

... and then there's coaching.

 

Not having Rob Ryan wondering around, making fresh muck daily, must be worth 2 wins.

 

....NON-EXISTENT for two years.......lookin' like damn good leadership now from Admin to FO to between the stripes IMO......

[John from Riverside]

I think the level of bad as opposed to the level of possibly good can not be understated at WR (Especially at WR)

 

last year.....hurt Sammy, hurt woods, Goodwin, 2 weeks of a retired WR,.......am I missing anybody?

 

This year

 

Watkins, Boldin, Z. Jones, Holmes

 

I mean that group looks like night and day

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

I agree that they should be (and should have been) better. Coaching really held this team back.

 

Finally it looks like we have a coach and staff that looks calculated, quiet, a.d disciplined...the exact opposite of what was just here.

 

I don't expect some fairy tail ride to the Super Bowl this year, but I do believe the Bills can at least be in the hunt for a WC birth in December. They were (technically) under Ryan, and even though the coaches and many players are new, they should be a tough team to beat and not be out of it by Thanksgiving. Just need key players to stay healthy.

[Kirby Jackson]

I think that the biggest difference is the scheme. As an example the CBs were plenty talented last year but left to drown by the Ryan brothers. Just putting the players in better position will produce better results.

 

In terms of the roster I have similar concerns about the depth as some others.

 

-The Boldin signing was a big one for me. I didn't like the receiver depth and now think that it's pretty good. I'd like a speed guy but don't think that's on the cards.

-The RB depth scares me because that's the bread and butter. If Jonathan Williams can step in it won't be that big of a deal. He looked like he had slow feet in the hole to me last year but it sounds like he's improved.

- TE I'm less concerned about than others. I'm not a big fan of multiple TE sets anyways. If you want to run the ball put another OL out there. If you want to throw the ball put another WR out there. Clay is good, O'Leary is fine as a #2 and Thomas has upside.

- OL depth is good assuming that they have someone that can fill in at LT if Glenn goes out. That's probably Henderson after his suspension IMO. If the suspension gets reduced with new marijuana rules, even better.

- QB depth is what it is. If your QB goes out you aren't winning much. That's true for almost every team in the league. Yates isn't good and Peterman's ceiling is as a backup IMO.

 

- CB will be fine. I liked what I saw from Leonard Johnson at camp.

- S is not where it needs to be IMO. I'd add Byrd on a small deal if it's possible.

- DL is fine in the middle and Yarborough may have been that surprise player that we all wanted to see on he end.

- LB is the one spot where the starters are more concerning than the depth to me. Those guys are pretty interchangeable 1-6. I'm hoping some guys differentiate themselves.

 

- ST should be better all around as well.

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

I think that the biggest difference is the scheme. As an example the CBs were plenty talented last year but left to drown by the Ryan brothers. Just putting the players in better position will produce better results.

 

In terms of the roster I have similar concerns about the depth as some others.

I agree, although I would pass on Byrd. DBs aren't really coveted in this defense like the front 7 is. They'll be in zone a lot, and even though Byrd excels in zone, he's not very good against the run, and I think the Bills will want to roll over as much cap space as possible, with Watkins, Taylor, etc. potentially needing a new deal.

 

I don't think the depth is quite as bad as many people think, but there are certain starters that the Bills just cannot afford to lose for any significant amount of time.