PFF: Tyrod Taylor #2 starting QB in AFCE

[section122]

Why not worry about the last 1:20 of regulation? That was clearly where the blame lies (besides for the 10 guys in overtime). You gave up a big return and 6 plays to march into FG range. That's not on the offense. When you kickoff to a team with 1:20 to go, and they have no timeouts, you should win that game right there.

Actually 28th in DVOA defense http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

 

Oops I just saw them at 26 and ran with it.

 

It is an interesting tool and I want to use it in conjuction with other stats to debunk some myths (a generalization not directed at you Kirby as we are fairly close in our opinions on this mattter).

 

Miami did NOT have a worse defense. They finished at 20 and their DC was given a HC job. The Bills fired their HC responsible for their finish as well as his brother.

 

Only 2 teams finished with a worse defense and qualified for the playoffs. Detroit and Atlanta. Nobody has once made the argument that TT is better than either of those qbs.

 

Speaking of Tyrod... (that is a link to click lol) Look at these interesting advanced statistics. We all agree that he regressed from 2015 to 2016 there are some interesting names he outperformed. Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Blake Bortles, Ryan Tannehil, Cam Newton, Carson Wentz, and Joe Flacco among others. Ask yourself if you watched these other guys play enough to qualify them against TT. Then add in the emotional component of 7-9 and it needing to be someone's fault. This is where the narrative that TT is terrible. Tell me about your eye test and I'll tell you to apply it to the rest of those guys and report back.

[Crusher]

 

They finished 26th in DVOA which is an entire snapshot of the defensive performance and a great indicator of true success.

 

They had the 29th ranked run defense by yards

 

If you take out the game against the Brissett led Patriots their ppg moves to bottom 10

 

They gave up more than 24 points in 9 of 16 games

 

Are we really going to pretend that the Rex and Rob Ryan defense wasn't bad? It led to their firing even. I am surprised it is debatable and I would imagine if I went through a lot of the anti-TT group they would bemoan the defensive performance during the season.

 

 

I was going to respond to crusher but then I remembered not to feed the trolls...

This is what I call not being able to hang in the discussion, so we give a weak reply like the one you see here.

 

It's ok, because I don't really know who you are or what you bring to the discussion anyway. From what I have gathered from this post, nobody is missing much of anything.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

I guess I don't (and will) not understand forgiving the defense (who was cleary worse) while holding the offense accountable? If the AFC playoff teams combined to lose 4 games while scoring 24 points and the Bills lost 6 such games, logic would say that is cleary the defense's fault. When teams exceed 24 points they almost always win, except the Bills.

someone posted these # earlier. I didn't check the validity, Bills O 24 ppg, Bills D 23 ppg.

 

If true where does the fault lie?

 

45 points against the 49ers offsets the norm, just as the 41 by the Pats offsets the norm.

 

I'm really really done now.

[section122]

Why DVOA? Because it's the one stat that happens to fit your argument? Can you tell me exactly how it's calculated (answer is no, because it's proprietary and wholly reliant on subjective analysis)?

 

Why look at run defense by yards? I though total yards was a bad way of evaluating a unit?

 

Why take out games? That seems...well, dumb.

 

Why qualify their PPG average, which was 23.something and good for 16th. Bang on average.

 

Why DVOA because it is a great comparative statistic. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. If you had clicked around on the link you would see how it is calculated. Here is the explanation of it though and an excerpt of why I like it:

 

Doing a better job of distributing credit for scoring points and winning games is the goal of DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season, assigning each play a value based on both total yards and yards towards a first down.

 

Raw number can paint a picture but they are generally incomplete and discount other factors. The Bills appeared to have a decent pass defense but in reality the run defense was so bad teams didn't have to pass to move the ball.

 

As to the rest of your post. A question was asked and raw numbers AND advanced stats were used and you dismissed both. What were you looking for exactly? YPG for run defense is the same as raw numbers. I didn't dismiss a game simply pointed out that if you removed an extreme outlier in regards to performance it looked worse than the 16th it ended at. Unless you think the Gronk and Brady-less Pats* are as good as the team with them. Perhaps if they played the Bills might not have shut them out? Do you really want to defend the defensive performance last year? Wouldn't Rex still be here if the defense was effective?

This is what I call not being able to hang in the discussion, so we give a weak reply like the one you see here.

 

It's ok, because I don't really know who you are or what you bring to the discussion anyway. From what I have gathered from this post, nobody is missing much of anything.

 

 

I am not surprised that using numbers and stats doesn't bring anything to the discussion for you.

 

someone posted these # earlier. I didn't check the validity, Bills O 24 ppg, Bills D 23 ppg.

 

If true where does the fault lie?

 

45 points against the 49ers offsets the norm, just as the 41 by the Pats offsets the norm.

 

I'm really really done now.

 

Bills D - 23.6 given up good for 16th in the league

 

Bills O - 24.9 scored good for 10th in the league

 

So although the numbers are close numerically they are a bit different value wise.

 

imo giving up 0 to the Pats is more of an outlier than the 41. The Bills gave up 0 once and the next closest amount was 13. The Pats* scored 41 and the 37 to the Jets, 31 to Seattle, 28 to Miami, 38 to Oakland, 34 to Miami, and 30 to the Jets. That is 6 results within the 13 point deviation.

[Crusher]

 

Oops I just saw them at 26 and ran with it.

 

It is an interesting tool and I want to use it in conjuction with other stats to debunk some myths (a generalization not directed at you Kirby as we are fairly close in our opinions on this mattter).

 

Miami did NOT have a worse defense. They finished at 20 and their DC was given a HC job. The Bills fired their HC responsible for their finish as well as his brother.

 

Only 2 teams finished with a worse defense and qualified for the playoffs. Detroit and Atlanta. Nobody has once made the argument that TT is better than either of those qbs.

 

Speaking of Tyrod... (that is a link to click lol) Look at these interesting advanced statistics. We all agree that he regressed from 2015 to 2016 there are some interesting names he outperformed. Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Blake Bortles, Ryan Tannehil, Cam Newton, Carson Wentz, and Joe Flacco among others. Ask yourself if you watched these other guys play enough to qualify them against TT. Then add in the emotional component of 7-9 and it needing to be someone's fault. This is where the narrative that TT is terrible. Tell me about your eye test and I'll tell you to apply it to the rest of those guys and report back.

I live in Philly and have seen plenty of Wentz. He is light years beyond Tyrod. He is constantly making calls and adjustments at the line from what he sees in the defense. Again, the systems and what is asked of the QB plays a big part here. He was also a rookie, and he didn't have a complete cupcake schedule like Tyrod either.

 

You go do your evaluation. It should be fun to see if you can actually form an opinion that doesn't paint Tyrod as a good QB since you seem determined to do so.

 

All the stats in the world mean squat to me when you run a simplistic offense with little to no responsibility when nearly all other QB's are responsible for much more within their offense. One of the weakest pass offenses being propped up by safe and easy throws that produce some good metrics when viewed through the narrow rose colored lens that some choose to look through here.

[Kirby Jackson]

someone posted these # earlier. I didn't check the validity, Bills O 24 ppg, Bills D 23 ppg.

 

If true where does the fault lie?

 

45 points against the 49ers offsets the norm, just as the 41 by the Pats offsets the norm.

 

I'm really really done now.

If 24.9 (counting the EJ game) is the same as 24 than sure. If you pull out the EJ game the offense was at 26 PPG which is good enough for 8th in the league. The defense is right around the middle in PPG at 23.2 (excluding the EJ game).

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

Why DVOA because it is a great comparative statistic. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. If you had clicked around on the link you would see how it is calculated. Here is the explanation of it though and an excerpt of why I like it:

 

Doing a better job of distributing credit for scoring points and winning games is the goal of DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season, assigning each play a value based on both total yards and yards towards a first down.

 

Raw number can paint a picture but they are generally incomplete and discount other factors. The Bills appeared to have a decent pass defense but in reality the run defense was so bad teams didn't have to pass to move the ball.

 

As to the rest of your post. A question was asked and raw numbers AND advanced stats were used and you dismissed both. What were you looking for exactly? YPG for run defense is the same as raw numbers. I didn't dismiss a game simply pointed out that if you removed an extreme outlier in regards to performance it looked worse than the 16th it ended at. Unless you think the Gronk and Brady-less Pats* are as good as the team with them. Perhaps if they played the Bills might not have shut them out? Do you really want to defend the defensive performance last year? Wouldn't Rex still be here if the defense was effective?

 

 

I am not surprised that using numbers and stats doesn't bring anything to the discussion for you.

 

 

Bills D - 23.6 given up good for 16th in the league

 

Bills O - 24.9 scored good for 10th in the league

 

So although the numbers are close numerically they are a bit different value wise.

 

imo giving up 0 to the Pats is more of an outlier than the 41. The Bills gave up 0 once and the next closest amount was 13. The Pats* scored 41 and the 37 to the Jets, 31 to Seattle, 28 to Miami, 38 to Oakland, 34 to Miami, and 30 to the Jets. That is 6 results within the 13 point deviation.

For Clarity - giving up 0 to the Pats with an injured 3rd string rookie.. than the typical 41 Brady puts up against the Bills.

If 24.9 (counting the EJ game) is the same as 24 than sure. If you pull out the EJ game the offense was at 26 PPG which is good enough for 8th in the league. The defense is right around the middle in PPG at 23.2 (excluding the EJ game).

you can not count the EJ game when talking about TT stats.

 

logging off ,,,, later

[GoBills808]

 

Why DVOA because it is a great comparative statistic. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. If you had clicked around on the link you would see how it is calculated. Here is the explanation of it though and an excerpt of why I like it:

 

Doing a better job of distributing credit for scoring points and winning games is the goal of DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season, assigning each play a value based on both total yards and yards towards a first down.

 

Raw number can paint a picture but they are generally incomplete and discount other factors. The Bills appeared to have a decent pass defense but in reality the run defense was so bad teams didn't have to pass to move the ball.

 

As to the rest of your post. A question was asked and raw numbers AND advanced stats were used and you dismissed both. What were you looking for exactly? YPG for run defense is the same as raw numbers. I didn't dismiss a game simply pointed out that if you removed an extreme outlier in regards to performance it looked worse than the 16th it ended at. Unless you think the Gronk and Brady-less Pats* are as good as the team with them. Perhaps if they played the Bills might not have shut them out? Do you really want to defend the defensive performance last year? Wouldn't Rex still be here if the defense was effective?

I know what DVOA is. I don't need to rely on someone else 'assigning value' to plays that my team runs. I know the Bills better than Football Outsiders does. DVOA certainly can be a useful statistic, but saying 'Well FO had the Bills D at 28th so they obviously sucked' is the ultimate in unimaginative thinking.

 

I asked because your stats are all over the place. You say raw numbers are incomplete, yet also claim the defense was bad by pointing out rush yards against. Inconsistent. By total yards in 2016 they were 19th in the league and less than 10 YPG off average...you're going to say 'total yards doesn't mean anything'. But in your view, rush yards do, somehow. Strange argument.

[Kirby Jackson]

For Clarity - giving up 0 to the Pats with an injured 3rd string rookie.. than the typical 41 Brady puts up against the Bills.

 

you can not count the EJ game when talking about TT stats.

 

logging off ,,,, later

I didn't Edited May 8, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[GoBills808]

I guess I don't (and will) not understand forgiving the defense (who was cleary worse) while holding the offense accountable? If the AFC playoff teams combined to lose 4 games while scoring 24 points and the Bills lost 6 such games, logic would say that is cleary the defense's fault. When teams exceed 24 points they almost always win, except the Bills.

In response:

 

In the Miami game, which we lost 25-28, the Bills scored 8 points with 19 seconds remaining.

 

The Patriots game, which we lost 41-25, the Bills scored 8 points with 30 seconds remaining.

 

The Raiders game, which we lost 24-38, the Bills, from 13:11 left in the 3rd quarter, went 3-out, 3-out, 3-out, INT, FUMBLE, 3-out to end the game.

 

Just something to consider.

[Crusher]

In response:

 

In the Miami game, which we lost 25-28, the Bills scored 8 points with 19 seconds remaining.

 

The Patriots game, which we lost 41-25, the Bills scored 8 points with 30 seconds remaining.

 

The Raiders game, which we lost 24-38, the Bills, from 13:11 left in the 3rd quarter, went 3-out, 3-out, 3-out, INT, FUMBLE, 3-out to end the game.

 

Just something to consider.

It's easy to make the defense the scapegoat. These posters can't come to terms with the fact that Taylor is just not very good when it comes to passing. They can't escape the fact that he came up short when it mattered most in nearly all situations, however.

[PolishDave]

I live in Philly and have seen plenty of Wentz. He is light years beyond Tyrod. He is constantly making calls and adjustments at the line from what he sees in the defense. Again, the systems and what is asked of the QB plays a big part here. He was also a rookie, and he didn't have a complete cupcake schedule like Tyrod either.

 

You go do your evaluation. It should be fun to see if you can actually form an opinion that doesn't paint Tyrod as a good QB since you seem determined to do so.

 

All the stats in the world mean squat to me when you run a simplistic offense with little to no responsibility when nearly all other QB's are responsible for much more within their offense. One of the weakest pass offenses being propped up by safe and easy throws that produce some good metrics when viewed through the narrow rose colored lens that some choose to look through here.

 

I like how you blame Tyrod for Greg Roman's offensive design.

 

You really don't know much about football. Do you...

[GoBills808]

It's easy to make the defense the scapegoat. These posters can't come to terms with the fact that Taylor is just not very good when it comes to passing. They can't escape the fact that he came up short when it mattered most in nearly all situations, however.

I just think it's simplistic to lay 100% of the blame on the defense for our record last season.

[Kirby Jackson]

It's easy to make the defense the scapegoat. These posters can't come to terms with the fact that Taylor is just not very good when it comes to passing. They can't escape the fact that he came up short when it mattered most in nearly all situations, however.

I don't know how you are taking my words and turning it into that? The Bills lost 6 games scoring 24 points while the rest of the AFC playoff teams lost 4 combined. That's the defense. GoBills was offering an explanation of a few of them that makes the defense look a little better.

 

Honest question, who was better the last 2 years the offense or the defense?

I just think it's simplistic to lay 100% of the blame on the defense for our record last season.

I am not trying to do that even if it comes across that way. I am simply saying that the defense was a much bigger problem than the offense. They all share in the wins and losses. If you are to put percentages as to why they finished where they did I would put it as such: coaching 60%, defense 25%, offense 10% and st 5%. That is obviously a dumbed down version but you get the point.

[Crusher]

 

I like how you blame Tyrod for Greg Roman's offensive design.

 

You really don't know much about football. Do you...

Tyrod has had issues before Roman and after Roman. Blaming Roman seems like a desperation move to me.

 

When a poster can clearly school me on the game, I'll gladly admit it.

 

Until then, you are just another pretender trying to question what I see without anything substantial to disprove it.

 

Just a lame comment about me not knowing football...

[PolishDave]

Tyrod has had issues before Roman and after Roman. Blaming Roman seems like a desperation move to me.

 

When a poster can clearly school me on the game, I'll gladly admit it.

 

Until then, you are just another pretender trying to question what I see without anything substantial to disprove it.

 

Just a lame comment about me not knowing football...

 

And it is also blatantly apparent that you know absolutely nothing about Greg Roman or his coaching history. Do some research. You might change your mind about things.

[CommonCents]

The Taylor situation is a lot simpler for me than some of you are making. Until he can do something/anything presnap and routinely run a two minute offense the team should always be looking for his replacement. Sure, he does some nice things, protects the ball, he is highly likeable and entertaining BUT if he is playing with blinders on that is just not good enough.

 

I'm hopeful the new coaching staff takes a different approach with TT and he makes some strides towards becoming a more complete QB. In my opinion having a QB that offers nothing presnap and who is unable to run a two minute offense is a fatal flaw.

[section122]

I live in Philly and have seen plenty of Wentz. He is light years beyond Tyrod. He is constantly making calls and adjustments at the line from what he sees in the defense. Again, the systems and what is asked of the QB plays a big part here. He was also a rookie, and he didn't have a complete cupcake schedule like Tyrod either.

 

You go do your evaluation. It should be fun to see if you can actually form an opinion that doesn't paint Tyrod as a good QB since you seem determined to do so.

 

All the stats in the world mean squat to me when you run a simplistic offense with little to no responsibility when nearly all other QB's are responsible for much more within their offense. One of the weakest pass offenses being propped up by safe and easy throws that produce some good metrics when viewed through the narrow rose colored lens that some choose to look through here.

 

My evaluation has TT at about the 20th best QB in the league. I'm not trying to paint him as anything other than that. What is tiring is hearing about how terrible he is when the facts don't really back that up. He is a mid-tier starter by pretty much every objective measure. Wentz was indeed a rookie and Tyrod was in his second year starting. TT vastly outperformed him in pretty much all categories which I have gone over in many other threads. Wentz may end up being a franchise QB and much better than TT. He isn't there yet though.

 

I know what DVOA is. I don't need to rely on someone else 'assigning value' to plays that my team runs. I know the Bills better than Football Outsiders does. DVOA certainly can be a useful statistic, but saying 'Well FO had the Bills D at 28th so they obviously sucked' is the ultimate in unimaginative thinking.

 

I asked because your stats are all over the place. You say raw numbers are incomplete, yet also claim the defense was bad by pointing out rush yards against. Inconsistent. By total yards in 2016 they were 19th in the league and less than 10 YPG off average...you're going to say 'total yards doesn't mean anything'. But in your view, rush yards do, somehow. Strange argument.

 

I was simply responding to someone asking by what measure the Bills D was considered bottom 10. I provided both raw data and advanced stats. Some people like one or the other so depending on which your choice is I gave both. It doesn't have anything to do with which I prefer. However, I like a combo of both thinking that both are flawed. DVOA is subjective but compares all teams evenly with that subjective measure. Raw data can be good but one amazing game one way or another can skew numbers (think Offense against 49ers and Defense against Pats* game 1). So I like to look at all of it and make up my own mind.

 

The Bills defense wasn't good last year just like the passing game wasn't good. I put the defensive performance on Rex and the defensive staff and then scheme. I put the passing game on lack of WRs, scheme, TT in that order. He certainly is to blame for some of the shortcomings but the talent at WR was embarassing and Roman is known for poor passing attacks. TT needs to improve his consistency game to game, play to play, and his field vision imo. Consistency is the most important thing though for me. Seattle and Miami 2 show he CAN be a great QB but he has to do it more often to be thought of as more than a stop gap. I don't think he is done developing yet as I think learning happens on the field. This year though is it. After 3 years we should have our answer.

 

It's easy to make the defense the scapegoat. These posters can't come to terms with the fact that Taylor is just not very good when it comes to passing. They can't escape the fact that he came up short when it mattered most in nearly all situations, however.

 

See above. Even the most ardent of us realize he has shortcomings. What we don't think is he isn't a starter in this league. I have said time and again the biggest difference between pro and anti TT is simple. Anti-TT think he is done developing and we are seeing the finished product. Pro-TT think he might continue to develop. It really boils down to that.

[BmarvB]

Let's see how well he does this season

[John from Riverside]

It's easy to make the defense the scapegoat. These posters can't come to terms with the fact that Taylor is just not very good when it comes to passing. They can't escape the fact that he came up short when it mattered most in nearly all situations, however.

Apparently is is NOT easy for you to make the defense the scape goat....as a matter of fact since it does not fit your crusade you give NO thought to it at all.