if no QB is taken in the top 9... do you?

[Rob's House]

I pull the trigger on Mitch Trubisky and hope for the best. If he busts he busts.

[jeffismagic]

 

I get that that's how you've evaluated it, but I do my own evaluations. My highest graded QB this year is 6 points lower than the grade I had on Carr. I do not see a Derek Carr in this class. I also do not see any QBs with no flaws coming out next year, but my preliminary evals give me much higher hopes than this year's class.

If we pass on QB at ten I have no faith that we get a top QB next year. Trusting in a QB class assumes that other teams will just let you have your guy next year. I see us as deliberately putting ourselves in QB purgatory as we refuse to rebuild, we are trying to win just enough games to miss out on a top 5 pick.

[BuffaloHokie13]

If we pass on QB at ten I have no faith that we get a top QB next year. Trusting in a QB class assumes that other teams will just let you have your guy next year. I see us as deliberately putting ourselves in QB purgatory as we refuse to rebuild, we are trying to win just enough games to miss out on a top 5 pick.

 

And I don't see a QB worth a top 20 pick, let alone a top 10. It's okay, I promise. Our evaluations can differ.

[jeffismagic]

 

And I don't see a QB worth a top 20 pick, let alone a top 10. It's okay, I promise. Our evaluations can differ.

I'm not worried about your evaluations. I'm worried that the same crew at One Bills Drive that have managed to screw up getting a QB will continue to do so.

[rodneykm]

B.

 

The pick should be Watson and if we do not take him it will be a major regret for years to come. The guy is a winner with a good head on his shoulders. Plain and simple.

[C.Biscuit97]

You still hold a certain love for EJ and resentment towards Tyrod that is kind of weird. You went from constantly defending a guy that did nothing because he wasn't given a fair shake to constantly criticizing a guy that is pretty good.

 

In terms of the guys that you mentioned, I have posted on here the likelihood of finding a franchise QB after the top 3. I need to find it but it is like 1 out of 10 or less. (It looks like 1 out of 16 but I can't find the original): http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/191863-to-qb-or-to-not-qb/?p=4234531

 

Just to refresh everyone's memories here are the guys that teams picked (outside of the top 3) in the 1st 2 rounds since 2006: Cutler, Kellen Clemens, Tavares Jackson, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Brohm, Henne, Sanchez, Freeman, Pat White, Bradford, Tebow, Clausen, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Dalton, Kaepernick, RG3, Tannehill, Weeden, Osweiler, EJ, Geno, Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, Carr, Jimmy G, Goff, Wentz, Lynch and Hackenberg.

 

We all need to stop talking about Dak, Wilson and Brady like it is the norm. Franchise QBs are found in the top 3, the numbers don't lie. You don't need to just take guys to take them.

Well since you and me have a wager on EJ, we won't get into all that now. But:

 

1) I have zero resent towards Tyrod. I think he seems like a great guy and does some things I really like. I just think he is an average at best NFL qb. But no hate at all.

 

2) Tyrod developed as well as any qb could be developed. He didn't have the pressure of playing right away or being called a bust. He got drafted by one of the best franchises in the NFL & sat behind a SB winning qb. Perfect.

 

EJ had the exact opposite of that.

 

3) I always favor bigger qbs. If Tyrod was EJ's size, I'd be more of a fan.

 

4) Tyrod was a 57% passer in college. I believe Clay is a very good receiving TE. Tyrod's inability to see and make certain throws goes back to college. Is he going to suddenly improve on this in year 7 in the NFL?

 

In short, TT is what he is I believe. I would love for him to be a great qb for us but I don't see it. On his best days, he is a flashier version of Alex Smith. I also hate double standards. Some posters make a ton of excuses for Tyrod's struggles in the passing game when they would just rip EJ and JP for the same thing.

 

But EJ is gone (and has a shot on a SB contender) so let's focus on TT. I just don't see the upside. Defenses gameplan to make him play like a qb. That's a problem. We also have a potential elite wr (who needs to stay healthy) would got very frustrated with Taylor last year. I'm sick of wasting playmakers.

 

So would I rather hope and pray the Bills make the playoffs with TT with a top 10 pick on a wr and a much improved defense or go with a guy like Watson and see what happens? I'm going Watson all day. He doesn't take the safe play. He tries to win.

 

Bottom line, we are most likely going 7-9 or 8-8 with Taylor. While then we just screwed ourselves for this supposedly great qb class next year. And the Bills cycle of nothing continues to spin. Good times.

B.

 

The pick should be Watson and if we do not take him it will be a major regret for years to come. The guy is a winner with a good head on his shoulders. Plain and simple.

But there will be a better guy next year and we'll get him! I promise!

[BuffaloHokie13]

I'm not worried about your evaluations. I'm worried that the same crew at One Bills Drive that have managed to screw up getting a QB will continue to do so.

 

So basically what you're getting at is that you believe your man-crush on Mahomes is a better evaluation than whatever the people paid to evaluate at One Bills Drive will come up with?

[jeffismagic]

 

So basically what you're getting at is that you believe your man-crush on Mahomes is a better evaluation than whatever the people paid to evaluate at One Bills Drive will come up with?

Yes, the classic don't share your opinion that differs from Bills fan groupthink unless you are paid by an NFL team.

 

An oldie but goodie.

[BuffaloHokie13]

Yes, the classic don't share your opinion that differs from Bills fan groupthink unless you are paid by an NFL team.

 

An oldie but goodie.

You've shared your opinion plenty, and it's clear you disagree with them on many things, which you've also shared plenty. How many times do you want to share how if they don't take Mahomes at 10 they are completely clueless before the draft even happens?

[jeffismagic]

You've shared your opinion plenty, and it's clear you disagree with them on many things, which you've also shared plenty. How many times do you want to share how if they don't take Mahomes at 10 they are completely clueless before the draft even happens?

It's not just Mahomes. There is also Trubisky.

 

Defending the front office with the they are professionals line has been trotted out to defend Marv Levy as GM, Dick Jauron, Doug Whaley as GM, Chan Gailey, etc

 

Good to see continuity.

Edited April 7, 2017 by jeffismagic

[Rocky Landing]

It would seem, from what has been widely reported, that the chances of any of the QBs in this draft developing into a top ten talent are remote, and there is even little consensus on who the top prospect is. It would be pretty surprising if Whaley/McD took one in the first round without trading down. If they did, there would be an avalanche of criticism in the likely event that such a prospect does not pan out. (Not that it matters.)

 

Personally, I would be happy if they traded down for a QB, and not mad if they go for one at #10. But, there are plenty of other needs to be met, with far less risk.

[xRUSHx]

Me personally I stick to my guns and draft Watson. But it really depends how you feel about each of these QBs.

If Doug Whaley needs a sign from above to get the right QB from this draft it's his own initials DW.

DW to draft DW, right on

[Kirby Jackson]

If the QBs have no flaws you aren't getting them on a trade up. This QB class is probably a 2014. If we get to grab Derek Carr in a "poor" draft class that is better than a JP Losman in an amazing QB class.

It is also a good idea to grab a Tom Brady. The problem that you are ignoring is that MAYBE 1 of these guys will be the franchise guy. Maybe 1 gets to Tyrod's level and 2 flame out. If 3 out of 4 would be an upgrade, go for it!! No one knows which guy it will be. Carr was the 4th QB taken.

Well since you and me have a wager on EJ, we won't get into all that now. But:

 

1) I have zero resent towards Tyrod. I think he seems like a great guy and does some things I really like. I just think he is an average at best NFL qb. But no hate at all.

 

2) Tyrod developed as well as any qb could be developed. He didn't have the pressure of playing right away or being called a bust. He got drafted by one of the best franchises in the NFL & sat behind a SB winning qb. Perfect.

 

EJ had the exact opposite of that.

 

3) I always favor bigger qbs. If Tyrod was EJ's size, I'd be more of a fan.

 

4) Tyrod was a 57% passer in college. I believe Clay is a very good receiving TE. Tyrod's inability to see and make certain throws goes back to college. Is he going to suddenly improve on this in year 7 in the NFL?

 

In short, TT is what he is I believe. I would love for him to be a great qb for us but I don't see it. On his best days, he is a flashier version of Alex Smith. I also hate double standards. Some posters make a ton of excuses for Tyrod's struggles in the passing game when they would just rip EJ and JP for the same thing.

 

But EJ is gone (and has a shot on a SB contender) so let's focus on TT. I just don't see the upside. Defenses gameplan to make him play like a qb. That's a problem. We also have a potential elite wr (who needs to stay healthy) would got very frustrated with Taylor last year. I'm sick of wasting playmakers.

 

So would I rather hope and pray the Bills make the playoffs with TT with a top 10 pick on a wr and a much improved defense or go with a guy like Watson and see what happens? I'm going Watson all day. He doesn't take the safe play. He tries to win.

 

Bottom line, we are most likely going 7-9 or 8-8 with Taylor. While then we just screwed ourselves for this supposedly great qb class next year. And the Bills cycle of nothing continues to spin. Good times.

 

A few things, the best games of Tyrod's career were in November and late December. I don't understand how we can say there isn't improvement when his most recent game is his best?

 

It isn't a double standard either. EJ and JP got ripped because they didn't do anything well. Tyrod has a winning record. He isn't perfect but he does enough well that he gets a little more slack than those stiffs (you can throw Trenative in there too). We gave Fitz some slack for the same reason. Pretty good guys and terrible QBs shouldn't be treated the same way.

 

I've posted it on here 1,000 times but over the last 2 years he has been similar to Dalton, better than Tannehill, Smith and Flacco. Again, that isn't great QB play but there was never a time (since at least Bledsoe) where we were getting middle of the road production from a QB.

 

To be clear, I am okay moving on if I saw someone better. I think, at best, one of these guys ends up a better QB than TT. If I knew which one it would be I would pull the trigger. In hindsight, I would have grabbed Dak at 19 and never looked back.

Edited April 7, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

I pull the trigger on Mitch Trubisky and hope for the best. If he busts he busts.

...probably on the Jets radar at #6.............

[Jauronimo]

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=NFL&id=12151&line=356598&spln=1

 

Bills GM in love with Deshaun Watson?

[BuffaloHokie13]

It's not just Mahomes. There is also Trubisky.

 

Defending the front office with the they are professionals line has been trotted out to defend Marv Levy as GM, Dick Jauron, Doug Whaley as GM, Chan Gailey, etc

 

Good to see continuity.

 

I'm not defending the organization. I have no idea what their board looks like, and neither do you. You are just complaining about what you think it looks like, how it differs from your amateur assessment, and how you think it will ruin the team long term. And you repeat this process about the draft ad nauseam.

[jeffismagic]

It is also a good idea to grab a Tom Brady. The problem that you are ignoring is that MAYBE 1 of these guys will be the franchise guy. Maybe 1 gets to Tyrod's level and 2 flame out. If 3 out of 4 would be an upgrade, go for it!! No one knows which guy it will be. Carr was the 4th QB taken.

A few things, the best games of Tyrod's career were in November and late December. I don't understand how we can say there isn't improvement when his most recent game is his best?

 

It isn't a double standard either. EJ and JP got ripped because they didn't do anything wel. Tyrod has a winning record. He isn't perfect but he does enough well that he gets a little more slack than those stiffs (you can throw Trenative in there too). We gave Fitz some slack for the same reason. Pretty good guys and terrible QBs shouldn't be treated the same way.

 

I've posted it on here 1,000 times but over the last 2 years he has been similar to Dalton, better than Tannehill, Smith and Flacco. Again, that isn't rite QB play but there was never a time (since at least Bledsoe) where we were getting middle of the road production from a QB.

 

To be clear, I am okay moving on if I saw someone better. I think, at best, one of these guys ends up a better QB than TT. If I knew which one it would be I would pull the trigger. In hindsight, I would have grabbed Dak at 19 and never looked back.

There are QBs with far higher upside than Taylor in this draft. You might not be sure they will get there but you can't tell me no one can be better than Tyrod.

 

The 2014 QB class had people complaining about it and one QB was franchise and another, Bridgewater, seemed on his way to decent starter. Bortles is a bottom 5 starter and one disaster in Manziel. This QB class also has 4 guys people can discuss like that one.

[Kirby Jackson]

There are QBs with far higher upside than Taylor in this draft. You might not be sure they will get there but you can't tell me no one can be better than Tyrod.

 

The 2014 QB class had people complaining about it and one QB was franchise and another, Bridgewater, seemed on his way to decent starter. Bortles is a bottom 5 starter and one disaster in Manziel. This QB class also has 4 guys people can discuss like that one.

They say that Trubisky's upside is Dalton. Over the last 2 years he has 3 more TDs and 3 more INTs than Tyrod. He has done that with AJ Green (and one year with Jones and Sanu too). If that is his ceiling why is it a good idea?

 

The numbers support this. Again, you can dig through all threads but I went all of the way back to 2002 and looked at every QB drafted. Outside of the top 3 picks it's under a 10% hit ratio.

Edited April 7, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[Mark Vader]

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=NFL&id=12151&line=356598&spln=1

 

Bills GM in love with Deshaun Watson?

Please say April Fool's!

 

[DrDawkinstein]

If there is a chance to trade back with Cleveland to #12, I'd do that and be happy taking the 2nd QB off the board (If they take Watson, I take Trubisky and vice versa).

 

But I'm not totally against sitting at #10 and taking the 1st QB. It would at least show this current administration is serious about changing this team's history and getting serious about addressing QB.