1billsfan Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 (edited) I'm not upset but find a comparison using incomplete data isn't all that effective. I love Cardale Jones. He may be my favorite player on the Bills. He's a guy that I will defend even when it's wrong. I've seen every snap that he's taken since Glenville. With that being said he is nowhere near the player today that Tyrod Taylor is. The drop off is enormous. Cardale has a huge ceiling and is progressing nicely but he is not ready to be a starter in 2017. He's already been a professional football player for 20 games (4 preseason, 16 regular season). That's a lot of games. Cardale seems like a gamer to me and is not prone to feeling nervous. You're saying that he won't be ready after say mid-season, 12 games (4 preseason, 8 regular season)? That's 32 total professional games. I don't buy into that for a second. Edited January 19, 2017 by 1billsfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 You can't ignore things... Sorry, when evaluating the true level of our D on a week to week basis, you can remove the anomaly of the Pats game because there is a zero percent chance we shut them out if Brady plays, especially since we always give up a lot of points to a Brady led Pats team, including 41 a few weeks later. So its above reasonable to assume at the very least the Pats score, and almost a lock they score more than 25 points. And even if you keep that game score in there, it does not change the fact that in the other 15 games were 26th in the NFL in points allowed. In other words, who cares if we managed to get one shut out against a Brady less Pats team when we gave up over 25 points per game in 94% of our games (the other 15). You don't make the playoffs getting one shut out and then being AWFUL in 15 other games, awful to the point of being the 26th worst D in the NFL in those 15 games which included allowing one RB to rush twice for over 200 yards, making one of this years worst QB's (FitzCrapTrick) look good twice, etc. My choice would be Watson (but likely not there at 10) Trade down a bit and go Mahomes Just curious to why you of all people like Watson considering his NFL projection is very much a similar player to Taylor, and that is assuming he doesn't bust. For a guy who hates Taylor, its mind boggling why you want Watson who has the exact same knocks on him that you don't like about Taylor. The biggest question marks on Watson are his ability to throw down field, down field accuracy, and his mechanics at the next level. He is a QB capable of making plays with his legs but its ability to be a quality passer that has the question marks surrounding him...which is all the same reasons you have all this disdain for Taylor. Not to mention he threw 30 interceptions in college the last 2 years, which is pretty bad for a college QB in general, especially one that plays in a spread offense with lots of bubble screens, slants, screens, etc giving him lots of high percentage throwing opportunities. I get you want a new QB...I just don't understand after all your disdain for Taylor, cries for a real pocket passer, etc how you could ever possibly be looking for us to draft Watson over the other prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Sorry, when evaluating the true level of our D on a week to week basis, you can remove the anomaly of the Pats game because there is a zero percent chance we shut them out if Brady plays, especially since we always give up a lot of points to a Brady led Pats team, including 41 a few weeks later. So its above reasonable to assume at the very least the Pats score, and almost a lock they score more than 25 points. And even if you keep that game score in there, it does not change the fact that in the other 15 games were 26th in the NFL in points allowed. In other words, who cares if we managed to get one shut out against a Brady less Pats team when we gave up over 25 points per game in 94% of our games (the other 15). You don't make the playoffs getting one shut out and then being AWFUL in 15 other games, awful to the point of being the 26th worst D in the NFL in those 15 games which included allowing one RB to rush twice for over 200 yards, making one of this years worst QB's (FitzCrapTrick) look good twice, etc. Just curious to why you of all people like Watson considering his NFL projection is very much a similar player to Taylor, and that is assuming he doesn't bust. For a guy who hates Taylor, its mind boggling why you want Watson who has the exact same knocks on him that you don't like about Taylor. The biggest question marks on Watson are his ability to throw down field, down field accuracy, and his mechanics at the next level. He is a QB capable of making plays with his legs but its ability to be a quality passer that has the question marks surrounding him...which is all the same reasons you have all this disdain for Taylor. Not to mention he threw 30 interceptions in college the last 2 years, which is pretty bad for a college QB in general, especially one that plays in a spread offense with lots of bubble screens, slants, screens, etc giving him lots of high percentage throwing opportunities. I get you want a new QB...I just don't understand after all your disdain for Taylor, cries for a real pocket passer, etc how you could ever possibly be looking for us to draft Watson over the other prospects. Alll wrong there but ok. Watson does throw the Middle. Has very good intermediate accuracy. There is a question of is his arm good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Gun Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 (edited) Technically TT is 14-14 but we all know that he is 15-14. This doesn't account for Tyrod's rushing stats or Hoyer's turnovers. It feels pretty convenient to leave those things out when evaluating the whole picture. That probably accounts for the large difference in their QB rating. It is hard to quantify the value that the threat of TT's legs has but it is a major factor. He is much tougher to defend than Hoyer. His ability to run keeps defenders at home and opens things up in the running game. Not sure where you are getting 145 ypg either (or Hoyer's ypg for that matter)? He is at 209 yards passing per start and another 40 yards on the ground. He also has another 10 TDs there over the last 2 years. Also, Tyrod has an 1.6% INT percentage and a 2.6:1 TD to INT ratio (not counting his 10 rushing TDs). Hoyer has a 2.2% INT percentage and a 1.7:1 TD to INT ratio. Other than the selective (and wrong stats) they are pretty much the same. I don't want either guy on the Bills. Hoyer has more total yards 8725 - 7541 Tyrod has more total TDs 48 - 45 Hoyer has more int 26 - 14 Hoyer has more fumbles 14 -13 Tyrod has more sacks 83 - 65 and what ever other stats billsfan had. Even though they have very contrasting styles their stats are extremely similar. IMO Neither guy is good enough and neither is better than the other. Hoyer made $2 m this year, Tyrod is not worth $7m, $10m, $12m more than Hoyer. Edited January 20, 2017 by old school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 He's already been a professional football player for 20 games (4 preseason, 16 regular season). That's a lot of games. Cardale seems like a gamer to me and is not prone to feeling nervous. You're saying that he won't be ready after say mid-season, 12 games (4 preseason, 8 regular season)? That's 32 total professional games. I don't buy into that for a second. I have seen a ton of Cardale. I'm not trying to play the "I know more card" but he played for OSU. I follow them almost like the Bills. That's why I have such affection for him. At the same time, I have a good sense for who he is as a player (just like a do the Bills guys). He's absolutely a gamer but he was very, very raw coming out. He started 11 games in college in a spread system. Now he is going into his second system in 2 years. He is a guy that they have to be patient with. He was at least 2 years away when he was drafted imo. I have high hopes for Cardale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 (edited) I don't want either guy on the Bills. Hoyer has more total yards 8725 - 7541 Tyrod has more total TDs 48 - 45 Hoyer has more int 26 - 14 Hoyer has more fumbles 14 -13 Tyrod has more sacks 83 - 65 and what ever other stats billsfan had. Even they have very contrasting styles their stats are extremely similar. IMO Neither guy is good enough and neither is better than the other. Hoyer made $2 m this year, Tyrod is not worth $7m, $10m, $12m more than Hoyer. You can't use gross stats when one guy has 348 more pass attempts. You need to normalize those numbers. Tyrod throws a TD on 4.3 % of his attempts (add 15). He throws an INT on 1.6% of his attempts (add 5.5). Tyrod averages 7.35 yards per attempt (add 2,559 yards). This goes without factoring his rushing stats which, with 40% more snaps is another 450 or so yards and 4 TDs. You are looking at a gap of 22 TDs, 600 or so yards, and Hoyer with 6.5 more INTs. If my math is right (which it may not be), the TDs would be like 67 to 45, yards 9,300ish to 8,725 and Hoyer would have 26 INTs to Tyrod's 19.5. How is that the similar? Edited January 20, 2017 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Tyrod goes to bed tonight with a giant smile on his face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 There should totally be another thread on this. Yeah, who ever came up with a thought like this before? We don't have anyone both good and ready behind Tyrod? Wow! Thank God somebody noticed. I don't want either guy on the Bills. Hoyer has more total yards 8725 - 7541 Tyrod has more total TDs 48 - 45 Hoyer has more int 26 - 14 Hoyer has more fumbles 14 -13 Tyrod has more sacks 83 - 65 and what ever other stats billsfan had. Even they have very contrasting styles their stats are extremely similar. IMO Neither guy is good enough and neither is better than the other. Hoyer made $2 m this year, Tyrod is not worth $7m, $10m, $12m more than Hoyer. Yup, this. Tyrod is better than Hoyer, but not nearly good enough to account for a vast difference in money committed. And neither guy is, IMHO, good enough to make a team competitive for a title. So go with the guy who takes less resources as a bridge QB until the real guy is both here and ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 (edited) Yeah, who ever came up with a thought like this before? We don't have anyone both good and ready behind Tyrod? Wow! Thank God somebody noticed. Yup, this. Tyrod is better than Hoyer, but not nearly good enough to account for a vast difference in money committed. And neither guy is, IMHO, good enough to make a team competitive for a title. So go with the guy who takes less resources as a bridge QB until the real guy is both here and ready. Moving on is one thing but they aren't similar. Your point is well taken though. If they aren't good enough to win a title what's the best course of action? I believe the ONLY other option is to tank 2017 and build assets for 2018. That's where the QB talent is and you need the assets to get one. Edited January 20, 2017 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Tyrod is better than Hoyer, but not nearly good enough to account for a vast difference in money committed. And neither guy is, IMHO, good enough to make a team competitive for a title. So go with the guy who takes less resources as a bridge QB until the real guy is both here and ready. And this is the correct reason for moving on. Ultimately you still end up at the same place; not good enough at the QB position. you maybe lose what 2 less games next year, so the f what you are picking higher in the draft(3rd-8th) and the cost to get a QB will be a bit cheaper than the (10th-15th). With the $15 million you save you can upgrade so many other positions, fill holes and position yourself to have some good weapons for a rookie QB. Keep TT and the team will have much less overall talent. The best outcome with keeping TT is the Dolphins this year; the worst is well how we finished. That is the 22nd pick vs the 10th pick; that's a big difference IMO Moving on is one thing but they aren't similar. Your point is well twin though. If they aren't good enough to win a title what's the best course of action? I believe the ONLY other option is to tank 2017 and build assets for 2018. That's where the QB talent is and you need the assets to get one. Which is why you move on this year, shore up the rest of the team and clean up cap space this year. Draft WRs to grow and make your trade up next year. Just hope that CLE/SF takes a QB this year because they will be drafting #1 again most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Gun Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 You can't use gross stats when one guy has 348 more pass attempts. You need to normalize those numbers. Tyrod throws a TD on 4.3 % of his attempts (add 15). He throws an INT on 1.6% of his attempts (add 5.5). Tyrod averages 7.35 yards per attempt (add 2,559 yards). This goes without factoring his rushing stats which, with 40% more snaps is another 450 or so yards and 4 TDs. You are looking at a gap of 22 TDs, 600 or so yards, and Hoyer with 6.5 more INTs. If my math is right (which it may not be), the TDs would be like 67 to 45, yards 9,300ish to 8,725 and Hoyer would have 26 INTs to Tyrod's 19.5. How is that the similar? 348 pass attempts is about equal to a season for these guys, meaning we're comparing roughly 3 season, as that's were Tyrod would be at and Hoyer kind of would be there. 575 total yards or about 191 difference per season 6.5 ints or 2 difference per season 22 TDs or 7 difference per season Their stats normalized are still very similar. How can you say they are not? Slight edge to Tyrod, but what is that really saying that he is slightly better stats wise than Brian freaking Hoyer? It says Tyrod sucks because Bryan Hoyer sucks. Jack Tyrods sack stats up and his just about double Hoyers, 122 - 65. Noticed how you left that out. Tyrod has 13 fumbles or 6.5 per for 2 years, add another year and the fumbles go up to 19.5 - 14 Hoyer. You left that one out also. I'll pass on both, neither is any good. Taylor is not nearly worth the money him or his agent are going to ask. DW would be foolish to pay him when the similar, albeit slight edge to Tyrod in normalized stats say he is worthy of no more than $5m per (Hoyer made $2m) opposed to $15m+ per everybody thinks he deserves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Sorry, when evaluating the true level of our D on a week to week basis, you can remove the anomaly of the Pats game because there is a zero percent chance we shut them out if Brady plays, especially since we always give up a lot of points to a Brady led Pats team, including 41 a few weeks later. So its above reasonable to assume at the very least the Pats score, and almost a lock they score more than 25 points. And even if you keep that game score in there, it does not change the fact that in the other 15 games were 26th in the NFL in points allowed. In other words, who cares if we managed to get one shut out against a Brady less Pats team when we gave up over 25 points per game in 94% of our games (the other 15). You don't make the playoffs getting one shut out and then being AWFUL in 15 other games, awful to the point of being the 26th worst D in the NFL in those 15 games which included allowing one RB to rush twice for over 200 yards, making one of this years worst QB's (FitzCrapTrick) look good twice, etc. Go ask anyone around the league where the Bills defense is ranked. They will tell you very clearly that it is ranked 19th. When evaluating a defense, you use yards. You can then throw in plenty of other measures, including turnovers, points, etc. But teams are ranked by yards for a reason. The reason for this is probably that using yards better separates the contributions of the defense from those of the offense and the special teams. Field position is huge in scoring, and field position is affected by the whole team, not just the defense. And by the way, yeah, the defense was bad. Nobody argues that. But so was the offense. And the STs weren't too good either. But the defense wasn't awful in 15 games, they just weren't. They had plenty of really bad games, but some pretty decent games too. They were pretty good against the Ravens, for instance. Very good against the Cardinals. Bengals. And so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just curious to why you of all people like Watson considering his NFL projection is very much a similar player to Taylor, and that is assuming he doesn't bust. For a guy who hates Taylor, its mind boggling why you want Watson who has the exact same knocks on him that you don't like about Taylor. I haven't watched a single play of Watson's, so I can't speak about him at all. But I generally find that when people say, Player A is another Player B, it often doesn't turn out that way at all. I remember how widespread it was among Bills fans to say, "Whatever we do, we need to stay away from Von Miller if he's still available for us at #3. The guy's a Maybin clone. Too small, not physical enough." And you could not move these people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 (edited) Go ask anyone around the league where the Bills defense is ranked. They will tell you very clearly that it is ranked 19th. When evaluating a defense, you use yards. You can then throw in plenty of other measures, including turnovers, points, etc. But teams are ranked by yards for a reason. The reason for this is probably that using yards better separates the contributions of the defense from those of the offense and the special teams. Field position is huge in scoring, and field position is affected by the whole team, not just the defense. And by the way, yeah, the defense was bad. Nobody argues that. But so was the offense. And the STs weren't too good either. But the defense wasn't awful in 15 games, they just weren't. They had plenty of really bad games, but some pretty decent games too. They were pretty good against the Ravens, for instance. Very good against the Cardinals. Bengals. And so on. Last I checked wins and losses were determined by points not yards. We were 5th highest scoring team in NFL with Tyrod and 26th in the NFL in points allowed. Hmmm...5th highest scoring team in the league is some how terrible? And if you remove the false Pats game shutout, we are 6th worst in points allowed and 23rd in yards allowed. And if Brady does play week 4, we finish more in the neighborhood of 26th of yards allowed per game. And you think the offense was as bad as the D? We were one of the absolute worst Defenses in the league across every statistical category in the 15 games outside the freak NE freebie that had a hurt 3rd string QB instead of Brady...aka a false positive result. I haven't watched a single play of Watson's, so I can't speak about him at all. But I generally find that when people say, Player A is another Player B, it often doesn't turn out that way at all. I remember how widespread it was among Bills fans to say, "Whatever we do, we need to stay away from Von Miller if he's still available for us at #3. The guy's a Maybin clone. Too small, not physical enough." And you could not move these people. Well problem number 1 you are listening to the board. None of the rankings, analysts, scouts, etc were really comparing Von Miller to Maybin. He was an elite prospect coming out like Patrick Willis was. And Watson flaws and concerns aren't coming from here, it's the majority of all the pundits, scouts, analysts etc that have the same concerns. Edited January 20, 2017 by Alphadawg7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 (edited) 348 pass attempts is about equal to a season for these guys, meaning we're comparing roughly 3 season, as that's were Tyrod would be at and Hoyer kind of would be there. 575 total yards or about 191 difference per season 6.5 ints or 2 difference per season 22 TDs or 7 difference per season Their stats normalized are still very similar. How can you say they are not? Slight edge to Tyrod, but what is that really saying that he is slightly better stats wise than Brian freaking Hoyer? It says Tyrod sucks because Bryan Hoyer sucks. Jack Tyrods sack stats up and his just about double Hoyers, 122 - 65. Noticed how you left that out. Tyrod has 13 fumbles or 6.5 per for 2 years, add another year and the fumbles go up to 19.5 - 14 Hoyer. You left that one out also. I'll pass on both, neither is any good. Taylor is not nearly worth the money him or his agent are going to ask. DW would be foolish to pay him when the similar, albeit slight edge to Tyrod in normalized stats say he is worthy of no more than $5m per (Hoyer made $2m) opposed to $15m+ per everybody thinks he deserves. I guess that we don't agree on close. I think that a QB (TT) with 230 yards a game (rushing and passing), 22 TDs, 6.5 INTs & 1.5 fumbles lost a season is pretty good. They compare to Alex Smith for example. Alex Smith in KC: 244 yards a game (rushing and passing), 22 TDs, 7 INTs, 2 fumbles lost I think that a QB (Hoyer) with 180 yards a game (rushing and passing), 15 TDs, 8.5 INTs, & just over 1 fumble lost per season is not the same. Just to be clear, I like Hoyer more than most. I wouldn't hate him as a bridge QB. I'm simply pointing out that they aren't close. Stack those TT numbers against Alex Smith, Tannehill or Flacco (including the rushing because it's an important part of his game) and you will see them to be similar. If you think that gap is "close" than TT is "closer" to those guys than he is to Hoyer. It probably comes off like I think TT is great. I don't but think that he's pretty good. I just try to add perspective as to what "pretty good" QB play is. That is what we have gotten for 2 years after 15 years of a much lower level. The people that think he's bad don't know what bad looks like. Go look at Houston or Cleveland to see bad. It will be much, much, much easier to find someone worse than TT than better. If the thought is we need to take a step back to take 2 forward I'm good with it. To think that we are going to plug in Hoyer or Cutler or Keenum or whoever, to save the cap hit, and not skip a beat, that's wrong. Romo is the exception and he has his own set of questions. Edited January 20, 2017 by Kirby Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 (edited) Rob Quinn's thoughts... Edited January 20, 2017 by Wayne Arnold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Rob Quinn's thoughts... EXACTLY...its mind boggling around here. But that is way too much logic on TSW to make sense to the anti TT crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Sack Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 There is no other NFL free agent QB I want. If they want to draft someone to take on Cardale and Tyrod then bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 (edited) Last I checked wins and losses were determined by points not yards. We were 5th highest scoring team in NFL with Tyrod and 26th in the NFL in points allowed. Hmmm...5th highest scoring team in the league is some how terrible? And if you remove the false Pats game shutout, we are 6th worst in points allowed and 23rd in yards allowed. And if Brady does play week 4, we finish more in the neighborhood of 26th of yards allowed per game. And you think the offense was as bad as the D? We were one of the absolute worst Defenses in the league across every statistical category in the 15 games outside the freak NE freebie that had a hurt 3rd string QB instead of Brady...aka a false positive result. Last time you checked, you missed the point. Yeah, we were not 5th highest. 7th if I remember, after Tyrod's last game. And what I am trying to say, that you apparently missed, is simply that that is a team stat. Not purely an offensive one. The defense and STs had a TON to do with it. You can never perfectly isolate offensive performance from the rest of the team's work, but yards does it an awful lot better than points. What's the exact ratio? Who knows, but at a guess, maybe offense 70% responsibility, while defense and STs get maybe 30% responsibility for points stats. Whereas in yards it's closer to 95% offense. "Terrible" is your word for the offense, not mine. Mine is "substandard," for the passing offense and "terrific," for the run offense. As a whole, not very good. Feasted on bad teams. And no we weren't "one of the worst defenses in the league in every yadda yadda yadda fifteen games." That's bull ****. We were around 21st in yards before that last game. 11th in average starting field position for the offense, though certainly that includes STs performance as well, 11th, while the offense left the defense the 23rd worst average field position for drive starts. 23rd in takeaways. 18th in yards per drive allowed. That's roughly where this group should've been ranked, 21st to 23rd. Definitely worse than the offense, but not absolutely horrible as many are trying to paint it. Certainly, "one of the absolute worst ..." is a great deal of exaggeration. We had an easy schedule this year and all three units should have that included when looking at their stats. And my point still stands. Go ask anyone not a wild-eyed Tyrod fan, basically any non-Bills fan, where the defense ranks. They'll probably say, "Gee, don't remember," check the official rankings and correctly say, "Ah, 19th." It's nearly all people desperate to make a point about Tyrod who would use 26th as if it was some kind of official figure that says it all. Well problem number 1 you are listening to the board. None of the rankings, analysts, scouts, etc were really comparing Von Miller to Maybin. He was an elite prospect coming out like Patrick Willis was. And Watson flaws and concerns aren't coming from here, it's the majority of all the pundits, scouts, analysts etc that have the same concerns. I'm listening to the board because I'm commenting on something said on the board. And sure scouts have the same concerns, but it would be absolute nonsense to claim that anyone except this board is comparing Watson to pre-draft Tyrod. Watson will probably go in the first. Tyrod, well let's just say he didn't. The comparison is pretty much as ridiculous as the Von Miller to Maybin comparison. Maybe more so. At least Maybin went in the first, though certainly way too high in the first. Edited January 21, 2017 by Thurman#1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 EXACTLY...its mind boggling around here. But that is way too much logic on TSW to make sense to the anti TT crowd. What's mind boggling is how you guys watched the Pats/Ravens/Cincy/Oakland/Pitt games and still want this guy around. He's the Jeff Fisher of qb's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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