GG Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 hour ago, DC Tom said: I keep that in mind while I'm criticizing. And there's a good bit to criticize here - as was pointed out somewhere else, this is another example of Trump understanding tactics but not strategy. Or, as I pointed out, another example of Trump understanding marketing but nothing else. The IRGC is a professional military force, intended to take losses and survive without degredation of capabilities. Killing Solemani is analogous to Iran assassinating General McKenzie (current CENTCOM commander) - nice propaganda win, but doesn't degrade US capabilities a damn, and results in Hell being rained down Iran's head. Maybe this bridges the tactical and strategic(with liberal borrowing from past Homeland plots.) Let's go back to the drone downing and attacks on the Saudi refineries, and the speculation around that time that the attacks were not "fully" approved by the mullahs and there was probably a faction within IRCG and Quds that wanted to escalate the conflict. If Trump's only mode was tit-for-tat responses, that would have been the more obvious time to strike back, and was probably expected by that Iranian element. But nothing happened, because Trump has shown patience to execute the counterattack to wait for a better time for him (like we're still waiting for the reveal on the 12th). It's also likely that there were pretty serious discussions behind the scenes to figure out the factions and try to turn the side that didn't like the escalation. Which brings us to this week and the very rapid turn of events starting with a random attack on a US installation in Iraq, USA's destruction of militia outpost, the storming of the Embassy, and the immediate killing of Soleimani. Although these seem like randomly connected parts with Trump acting on impulse, if you take a step back, you'd see that it's very hard for this kind of an operation to be carried out on a whim (Folks already forgot about the additional 4K troops deployed to the area last month). The critical part of the last sequence is USA's precise knowledge not just of Soleimani's travel log but the specific convoy he was in, since there were apparently three to choose from. If you argue that the US just got lucky, then why not shoot down all three convoys to make sure they get the guy? All this hints that US was getting very strong intel from inside the Iranian camp, and that this has been in planning for a long time, which possibly includes plans for the next step. If you believe in a diplomatic solution, then a crucial step is to remove the impediment in Iran to that solution. Iran's economy is on its back and internal unrest is growing. Their only options are to sit down with Trump, or go down in a blaze of glory. All signs are pointing to Soleimani being the voice of going down with the ship, so he needed to be removed. This theory will be tested in the next week by actions inside and outside Iran. Funny part is if it was anyone but Trump in charge, people would be talking about the brilliant execution of taking down a sworn enemy. 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 19 minutes ago, GG said: Maybe this bridges the tactical and strategic(with liberal borrowing from past Homeland plots.) Let's go back to the drone downing and attacks on the Saudi refineries, and the speculation around that time that the attacks were not "fully" approved by the mullahs and there was probably a faction within IRCG and Quds that wanted to escalate the conflict. If Trump's only mode was tit-for-tat responses, that would have been the more obvious time to strike back, and was probably expected by that Iranian element. But nothing happened, because Trump has shown patience to execute the counterattack to wait for a better time for him (like we're still waiting for the reveal on the 12th). It's also likely that there were pretty serious discussions behind the scenes to figure out the factions and try to turn the side that didn't like the escalation. Which brings us to this week and the very rapid turn of events starting with a random attack on a US installation in Iraq, USA's destruction of militia outpost, the storming of the Embassy, and the immediate killing of Soleimani. Although these seem like randomly connected parts with Trump acting on impulse, if you take a step back, you'd see that it's very hard for this kind of an operation to be carried out on a whim (Folks already forgot about the additional 4K troops deployed to the area last month). The critical part of the last sequence is USA's precise knowledge not just of Soleimani's travel log but the specific convoy he was in, since there were apparently three to choose from. If you argue that the US just got lucky, then why not shoot down all three convoys to make sure they get the guy? All this hints that US was getting very strong intel from inside the Iranian camp, and that this has been in planning for a long time, which possibly includes plans for the next step. If you believe in a diplomatic solution, then a crucial step is to remove the impediment in Iran to that solution. Iran's economy is on its back and internal unrest is growing. Their only options are to sit down with Trump, or go down in a blaze of glory. All signs are pointing to Soleimani being the voice of going down with the ship, so he needed to be removed. This theory will be tested in the next week by actions inside and outside Iran. Funny part is if it was anyone but Trump in charge, people would be talking about the brilliant execution of taking down a sworn enemy. ...nicely done...….fair and accurate assessment..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 23 minutes ago, GG said: Funny part is if it was anyone but Trump in charge, people would be talking about the brilliant execution of taking down a sworn enemy. I was thinking this morning how long the left would have mourned if Trump were president on 9/11. My guess is about 30 seconds of mourning before they jumped on Trump for causing the attack, and apologizing to terrorists for Trump making them angry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Two fake news sources Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 A good article on mourning cycles with respect to 9/11 he didn't foresee TDS being a permanent state of anger and screaming http://sodacity.net/system/files/Thomas_de_Zengotita_Numbing_American_Mind.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, Gary Busey said: Two fake news sources What are you talking about? This was reported last night as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Pulling us out of the middle east! Stable genius at it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 minute ago, GG said: What are you talking about? This was reported last night as well. I saw 750 reported last night. This says "three thousand or so" and "3,500" - that's a lot of troops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 America just took out the world’s no. 1 bad guy CNBC, by Jake Novak Original Article So, just who is this top Iranian general the U.S. just eliminated? For many of us who watch and analyze news out of the Middle East daily, he was the world’s number one bad guy. Qassim Soleimani has been in control of Iran’s Quds Force for more than 20 years. His current greatest hits include helping Bashar al Assad slaughter hundreds of thousands of his own people in the Syrian civil war, stoking the Houthis in Yemen’s civil war, and overseeing the killing of hundreds of Iraqi protesters recently demonstrating against Iranian influence in their country. . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 Broken brains abound. TDS is a dangerous thing to those who value clear thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Foxx said: https://twitter.com/WashingtonPoint/status/1213101966127173634 So the rebels of the last stronghold in Syria, many of which are ISIS, are cheering the death of the man who helped defeat ISIS in Iraq? these things are more about PR for a US audience who are ignorant of the ME complexities. As for the coming response, Iran has been on the radar of the US-Israel alliance for a long time. This is no accidental opportunity. I think GG has a good take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said: Broken brains abound. TDS is a dangerous thing to those who value clear thinking. "***** your fear" - Comrade Fudge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 What Qassim Soleimani's killing means by Tom Rogan Original Article The U.S. killing of Qassim Soleimani In Baghdad on Thursday ends an enduring threat. At least in the short term, however, it will unleash Iranian retaliation. The leader of the external action arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Soleimani long led that regime's efforts to destroy its enemies and expand its revolution. From an explosive campaign that killed hundreds of U.S. soldiers in Iraq, to supporting Bashar Assad's regime with legions of Shiite fighters and IRGC operatives, to conducting a campaign of bombings and assassinations and intimidation across the world, Soleimani was a master of his very dark arts. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 (But nothing's happening) 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 'The era of leading from behind is OVER': Elise Stefanik DROPS the entire Obama administration in tweets on Soleimani death . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 tough times.... but peace through strength tops peace at any price 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedge Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 There is going to be a lot of false information floating around (from all sides). There is a floating rumor that the Ayn al-Asad Airbase has suffered missile strikes, with this image being attached: This picture, however, has been in existence since at least Aug 2016 (2nd tweet): 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 1 hour ago, RochesterRob said: You actually invested time in determining if toilet scum is sentient or not? It routinely beats him at tic-tac-toe. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted January 3, 2020 Share Posted January 3, 2020 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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